Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

thebaz

The most stupid decision made , was not shutting down all flights (bar essential) from Italy last week - The area where nearly all the Italian rugby fans are from (Lombardo) , is going into lockdown - and we allowed travel in for a game that was cancelled 2 weeks ago - right now people are probably getting infected in Dublin city centre - madness.

LadyMayBelle

Miike wrote: »

Hey. Good question!

So, it will differ a lot based on who the ward manager is. I want to say that out the outset but... There is enough PPE to allow immediate family to visit a family member if they are going to be passing away. People are entitled to die with dignity and with family around if that is their wish however it's also worth noting that these will be very restricted visits and will be a tiny amount of people allowed to visit (ie. partner/kids) for shorter period of time than usual given the circumstances. It's not an ideal situation but healthcare staff are charged with protecting not just the patient and visitors but equally protecting public health. If you think this situation may be a reality for you, I would suggest arranging a phone-call or meeting with the Clinical Nurse Manager of the ward as soon as possible and making arrangements.

I've worked in palliative care in allied health but in a community/hospice setting rather than a busy hospital. Thankfully it's not a concern for me now, but I can think of a few people for whom this may become a reality (not necessarily death from covid19 but underlying issues, but the who knows..) its the balance of public safety and patient dignity and respect. I did go down the rabbit hole of wondering what an impact it will have on irish funerals, given if people who have come into contact with someone with the virus will need to self isolate..very sad and unsettling. Thanks for your answer Miike!

Professor Moriarty

ChurchtownMan wrote: »

Because you are not comparing like with like. The populations of China and Ireland make a mortality rate by population meaningless. They were able to shutdown Wuhan and hubei. Ireland cannot shut itself down - even then, it is a third of the population of that isolated within China. So the propagation within a relatively small population of 5M, which is still fully open to the rest of the world, and with completely unrestricted internal movement of people as business and most leisure and life continues as normal, will be far far higher. This is the same as for other European countries. All working in various estimates of 30-80% infection rates over the longer term. As we have seen with Lombardy, Europe is, at the moment at least, and Id say it will be continued, pursuing a policy that balances economics impact with health impact. Ireland doesnt have a Mother China to tend to it, feed, it, and bail it out economically when the virus declines. So it will become sicker - at the price of the weaker, elderly, and a small proportion across the general population. This is the calculation we see from the policies of all European nations at the moment.

You make some compelling arguments. I accept that China's authoritarian government was able to lock down people and society. And your point about economics versus healthcare is very relevant. However, I think you're not factoring in superior healthcare and communication. And you still haven't substantiated your assertion that Ireland will have 1000+ times China's mortality rate.

ChikiChiki

Strazdas wrote: »

We're nowhere near that stage. You'd probably be looking at around 400-500 Irish cases before the Govt would consider starting to close everything.

400- 500 cases is likely in 2 weeks.

Quantum Erasure

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The Sunday Business Post tomorrow is saying 1.9 million people could get the virus here and half of those within a 3 week period

A headline grabbing figure but how likely is it from a base of 19 people over 3 weeks?

Staying calm is the first step in dealing with this crisis.

if it doubles every 1.33 days, you get those figures. which isnt on trend, but we'll see after the weekend how it's going,

they probably didn't count on only one new case today

Coillte_Bhoy

Deleted User wrote: »

I prefer to think of myself as a person without a hard on for panic and hysteria.

You're in the wrong thread mate

viewfromtheuk

Italy, Lombardy now on lock down, approx 10 million people in a western democracy are under house arrest!
The Irish people have been blessed with good fortune, they have been given a 10 day look into the future, and have been given the chance to prepare accordingly.
What is happening in Italy is the preview for what the rest of Europe has in store.
Batten down the hatches and prepare for the worst, for its a coming.

Atlantic Dawn

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Whilst a lot of people will get Covid-19, 950000 is a 3 week period is a non runner.

If each of the 19 that have it now infected 4 people and they also did this each we would far exceed that in 3 weeks.

Phoebas

viewfromtheuk wrote: »

Italy, Lombardy now on lock down, approx 10 million people in a western democracy are under house arrest!
The Irish people have been blessed with good fortune, they have been given a 10 day look into the future, and have been given the chance to prepare accordingly.
What is happening in Italy is the preview for what the rest of Europe has in store.
Batten down the hatches and prepare for the worst, for its a coming.

Except they aren't.

ldy4mxonucwsq6

LadyMayBelle wrote: »

I've worked in palliative care in allied health but in a community/hospice setting rather than a busy hospital. Thankfully it's not a concern for me now, but I can think of a few people for whom this may become a reality (not necessarily death from covid19 but underlying issues, but the who knows..) its the balance of public safety and patient dignity and respect. I did go down the rabbit hole of wondering what an impact it will have on irish funerals, given if people who have come into contact with someone with the virus will need to self isolate..very sad and unsettling. Thanks for your answer Miike!

Yes, important to bear in mind that if a close family member ends up in this situation then the rest of their close family will likely be in quarantine or self isolation anyway.

Very sad, nobody wants that to happen but that's probably the reality for some.

Miike

thebaz wrote: »

The most stupid decision made , was not shutting down all flights (bar essential) from Italy last week - The area where nearly all the Italian rugby fans are from (Lombardo) , is going into lockdown - and we allowed travel in for a game that was cancelled 2 weeks ago - right now people are probably getting infected in Dublin city centre - madness.

To quote my biggest man crush on Boards: Who is, by far, one of the most reliable and informed professionals who posts on this forum (in my opinion).

GM228 wrote: »

We don't have laws that allow for quarantine.

There would be Constitutional rights and EU afforded rights which would need to be balanced against if they did try to enact such laws, and on that point, it does not help that we currently only have a caretaker government.

fritzelly

For all those hoping it will go away in the Summer
The WHO briefing from yesterday, Dr Ryan said they...

Do not know yet what the activity or the behaviour of this virus will be in different climatic conditions and we have to assume that the virus will continue to have the capacity to spread and it's a false hope to say yes it will just disappear in the summertime like the influenza virus

We hope it does, that would be a godsend but we can't make that assumption and there is no evidence right not to suggest that will happen so we need to fight the virus now

ChikiChiki

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

If each of the 19 that have it now infected 4 people and they also did this each we would far exceed that in 3 weeks.

I just don't see that given how spread out we are in rural Ireland and the precautions people are beginning to take.

It's definitely possible numerically and from what we know about the virus itself.

Cilldara_2000

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

If each of the 19 that have it now infected 4 people and they also did this each we would far exceed that in 3 weeks.

Your if/would scenario is 2 x 10^13 people. That's almost 3000 times more people than are currently on the planet. Realistic.

Thingymebob

LadyMayBelle wrote: »

Discussion here this eve...If someone is at the point of dying in hospital AND is confirmed to have the virus, what are a hospitals stance on letting family visit? With the shortage of protective gear and the need to get close family kitted up, highly contagious etc.. just curious. I know when there's any flu or mrsa, norovirus doing the rounds, all non essential visits are cut out..

The first person to die of Coronavirus in Australia had to say goodbye via video - the 78-year-old's family were able to speak to him on Saturday night, through glass and over the phone.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/perth-man-becomes-first-australian-to-die-from-coronavirus

Professor Moriarty

ChurchtownMan wrote: »

Because you are not comparing like with like. The populations of China and Ireland make a mortality rate by population meaningless. They were able to shutdown Wuhan and hubei. Ireland cannot shut itself down - even then, it is a third of the population of that isolated within China. So the propagation within a relatively small population of 5M, which is still fully open to the rest of the world, and with completely unrestricted internal movement of people as business and most leisure and life continues as normal, will be far far higher. This is the same as for other European countries. All working in various estimates of 30-80% infection rates over the longer term. As we have seen with Lombardy, Europe is, at the moment at least, and Id say it will be continued, pursuing a policy that balances economics impact with health impact. Ireland doesnt have a Mother China to tend to it, feed, it, and bail it out economically when the virus declines. So it will become sicker - at the price of the weaker, elderly, and a small proportion across the general population. This is the calculation we see from the policies of all European nations at the moment.

Indeed. But you asserted that 1000+ times Irish people would die from this virus than died in China. Can you link to research that supports 30-80% infection rates for Ireland? Or France/Germany/Britain?

Strazdas

There was an excellent article by Simon Jenkins in the Guardian on Friday pointing out we've been down this killer epidemic route several times before : first AIDS was going to kill everyone, then Bird Flu, then BSE (Mad Cow Disease), then SARS. Each one had dire predictions of 'millions' being wiped out.

owlbethere

RandomName2 wrote: »

China tried to cover this up and locked up the doctor who tried to warn the world about it (the doctor since died from covid-19).

They only got their arses in gear when they realized that the cat was out of the bag and their economy was going to tank as the world shunned them.

Even as it stands administrators don't want to cancel St. Patrick's Day because of the financial cost.

It sounds silly when Chian and South Korea they are declaring 'war' on the disease, but that's the kind of mindset you need if you want to beat it. While there is a single person with the virus in your country you have not yet beaten it.

What did that doctor get to say about it before he died?

Atlantic Dawn

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Your if/would scenario is 2 x 10^13 people. That's almost 3000 times more people than are currently on the planet. Realistic.

It's 4 people infected per infected person, very realistic, if anything conservative considering they are saying it's transmitable within 1 metre of contact.

ChurchtownMan

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And you still haven't substantiated your assertion that Ireland will have 1000+ times China's mortality rate.

I feel I have, but not clearly enough I guess. Its based on the fact that the mortality rate you raise is meaningless in this context. Due to its size, China was able to effectively remove a great portion of its population from the equation. Ireland cannot do that. The whole population is in the equation. While the two are indeed 'countries' politically, due to the incomparable geographical size, and population numbers, your comparison is not relevant.
Additionally, the process is not yet over, even in China.

Phoebas

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

If each of the 19 that have it now infected 4 people and they also did this each we would far exceed that in 3 weeks.

19 + (19 * 4) + (19 + (19 * 4) * 4) = 418

tillyfilly

This is a scary time, It’s probably the scariest time since ww2 and will be the scariest until ww3, take care of those close to you but keep your distance, be safe out there

LadyMayBelle

Thingymebob wrote: »

The first person to die of Coronavirus in Australia had to say goodbye via video - the 78-year-old's family were able to speak to him on Saturday night, through glass and over the phone.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/perth-man-becomes-first-australian-to-die-from-coronavirus

Oh man that's rough

Pretzill

Somebody had a very relevant question about what happens if someone is dying of covid-19 and how is it handled from their families perspective etc. I haven't been watching much of this unfold today but I heard a brief statement from the family of one of the recent deaths in the UK read on Sky. The jist was they were having to grieve for their loved one, in isolation - that hit home -.I presume no bedside vigil or final goodbye - very sad.

thebaz

Miike wrote: »

To quote my biggest man crush on Boards: Who is, by far, one of the most reliable and informed professionals who posts on this forum (in my opinion).

Apparently Italy are writing up laws right now , to lockdown Lombardo region, we had 2 weeks to write up laws to restrict travel from this area that is going into lockdown by its own country - if ther is an epidemic in Dublin from this week-end , it will scandolous , especially considering they knew the risk 2 weeks ago, when they actually cancelled the game.

citysights

Phoebas wrote: »

Except they aren't.

Lock down Italian style, they can still go to restaurants but most keep their distance from each other

viewfromtheuk

Ireland Population 4,830,000 last count
Best estimates on infection are between 20-70%
Mortality rate is 3.4%
70% infection rate is 115,000 dead
20% infection rate is 33,000
Sad to say judging the HSE on past performance , could even be worse!

Miike

Makes me wonder what consistencies are possible for third level institutions. A lot of exams to be sat in 8 weeks time - I can't help but wonder how they're going to navigate that mine field if the projections for spread are true (12 week to peak etc). You can't indefinitely postpone exams, surely?

Atlantic Dawn

Phoebas wrote: »

19 + (19 * 4) + (19 + (19 * 4) * 4) = 418

That's covering 3 tiers of infection, we are talking about 3 weeks so 21 tiers.

rom

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

if it doubles every 1.33 days, you get those figures. which isnt on trend, but we'll see after the weekend how it's going,

they probably didn't count on only one new case today

In China it doubled every 4 days. Outside China it is ever 6 days.