Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

sweet_trip

Beautiful sunny evening.

PukkaStukka

Beersmith wrote: »

Where exactly was it? Or what street?

Don't have permission to share but I believe it was near Erin's isle

Danno

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This night 35 years ago...

https://meteologix.com/ie/observations/ireland/weather-observation/19850725-1200z.html

Plenty of toys there to play with and review that day!

Alpha Romeo

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Don't have permission to share but I believe it was near Erin's isle

Sounds about right. I live near there and I thought a bomb had gone off or something, never heard thunder that loud before!

Gaoth Laidir

Danno wrote: »

https://meteologix.com/ie/observations/ireland/weather-observation/19850725-1200z.html

Plenty of toys there to play with and review that day!

Oh indeed. I'm half way through a detailed reconstruction.

pad199207

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Don't have permission to share but I believe it was near Erin's isle

Strike was registered over Charlestown on the Lightning’s maps

Meteorite58

Some brief pulse type thunderstorms today, shear looks to have been the main ingredient lacking today, plenty of rain, more so in Northern counties.

The UK had a lot more activity from long lasting storms as they crossed the country, reports of a Tornado in Northampton.







https://twitter.com/nayfmeister/status/1287104977786331138?s=20

https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1287107897575514113?s=20

https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/1287112901657010185?s=20

https://twitter.com/Wx_NickJ/status/1287127507800662017?s=20

https://twitter.com/NNweather/status/1287123078737211392?s=20


The rain doesn't have to dampen spirits!!

https://twitter.com/barrabest/status/1287105508684509185?s=20

Meteorite58

A great angle of the Tornado near Northampton today

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1287116144323821568?s=20

A way more shear available in the UK today

Meteorite58

Small chance of a bit of thunderstorm activity in the SW tonight and maybe a bit along Southern coasts, more so out to sea later in the night/ early morning. Dp's of about 14C along SW and S coasts. Convective Weather saying some elevated convection embedded in the frontal band might become a bit active.

Good amounts of LLS and DLS aided by Orographic lift might pop off a few bolts of lightning over the Kerry mountains but risk is quite low with low levels of CAPE and meager lapse rates, possibly on the wrong side of marginal and a very messy profile but will see what happens.

Meteorite58

Latest ECMWF 12Z has upped the chances of lightning potential in the SW and along S and SE counties, ICON has it as well.

Temps of 15C to 16C in Southern counties overnight with a Dp of 14C, lots of shear available and better lapse rates on this run. Models bringing the heavier rain further N on the latest runs, Met Eireann might need to change the warnings. Big changes again in a short time from the models. We will see what happens.

Oneiric 3

SleetAndSnow

Looks like its a night of no sleep for me

Danno

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

Shows some convection building off the Clare coast and looking at the trajectory it will cross the M7 corridor.

SleetAndSnow

Danno wrote: »

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

Shows some convection building off the Clare coast and looking at the trajectory it will cross the M7 corridor.

Is it gone more north then the models predicted?

Storm 10

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Is it gone more north then the models predicted?

Appears to have the places in the warnings showing very little rain very heavy in Galway

igCorcaigh

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Looks like its a night of no sleep for me

Where has all the rain gone from Cork?
More later?

SleetAndSnow

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Where has all the rain gone from Cork?
More later?

Not sure, Cork Airport TAF is forecasting heavy rain at around 2am, i was going to stay up but the sat24 looks like the system is gone further north then predicted.

Oneiric 3

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Is it gone more north then the models predicted?

Risk is always going to be low tonight for the prone areas, but might be worth keeping an eye on the badly circled black region here:



Drew in roughly where the warm and cold fronts are currently. Storms, if by chance they do break out, are more likely to occur where the cold (blue) front is closing in on the warm (red) front. Mountain uplifting of the airmass might help as well in helping to trigger a few sparks.

Or, I could be just talking out of my ar.se.

Edit: link to animated satellite:

https://meteologix.com/ie/satellite/100-w-532-n/top-alert-15min/20200726-2145z.html

Oneiric 3

Storm 10 wrote: »

Appears to have the places in the warnings showing very little rain very heavy in Galway

Only light rain here in my part of Galway at least. Can't remember the last time we had proper heavy rain here.

Danno

Towering convection just coming onto the SW coast now. Could be an interesting night in selected areas south of the M7.

aisling86

The rain the last few minutes in mid cork has been biblical

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Only light rain here in my part of Galway at least. Can't remember the last time we had proper heavy rain here.

Nice heavy rain here in my temporary bolt hole in the east.

SleetAndSnow

Convection starting to build off the south coast looking at sat24? Correct me if im wrong!

spookwoman

Some sparks off the south coast out to sea. Pretty heavy rain in Waterford all night

miamay

Storm 10 wrote: »

Appears to have the places in the warnings showing very little rain very heavy in Galway

Caravanning in Red Cross and it is torrential here...lying awake listening to it hammer down and glad I am not in a tent!

Meteorite58

Looks like most of the lightning activity stayed off the coast. Models correctly showed very heavy rain for Northern counties, looks like plenty in the SE also and high ground over S Kerry and W cork.



12hr rainfall radar totals

Netweather

pad199207

The BBC has the front crossing the country on Friday and really intensifying with what looks like heavy showers and thunderstorms

Meteorite58

Interesting set up all right on Fri. Front crossing the country during peak diurnal heating, moving into warmer air mass the more East it goes but will it be weakening as it reaches th E.
LLS and DLS good, lapse rates OK, should be a notable convergence along the E between land and Sea. One to keep an eye on to see if further potential there.

Iancar29

Nothing special here on Friday , some showers and the odd embedded strike id imagine. The fun will be for Wales and NE England.

Meteorite58

A small bit of potential for sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity tomorrow if probably somewhat brief. Would think the best chance being in around the midlands during the morning, maybe touching the E and the NE in the afternoon as the front crosses the country. Lot of Deep layer shear available and Low level Shear, Lapse rates improve during the day ( possibly best in the NE later in the afternoon ). MUCAPE low, only a couple of hundred J/kg at best it would seem but if there was enough of the front left by the time it reached the midlands and East as the Temperature increases around midday then a few convective showers could form and might get the odd rumble. No big deal really just out of interest to see if the set up could produce some active convection but living off of scraps :pac: