Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

stephenjmcd

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Isn't that effectively giving up on 'containment'?

I was just about to say that. Would go against who and ecdc guidance so doubt they would do that

CinemaGuy45

Gods Gift wrote: »

This thread is slowing down. 4 mins between posts.

Everything is gonna be fine.

Go out and look for a job.:D

Put a mask on first.:P

kowloon

Talisman wrote: »

From talking to him, the consensus in his class is that they are only interested in when they are getting two weeks off school. He also has a mad idea about needing to buy Easter Eggs before it's too late.

Smarter than all the adults losing their grip on reality. I am also concerned that others might panic buy all the easter eggs and ruin it for the rest of us.

Kermit.de.frog

..

Update (1155ET): Italian health officials have confirmed another rash of cases and deaths: The Italian death toll of patients who have tested positive for the virus has risen to 79 from 52, surpassing the 'official' death toll in Iran (though most suspect the real numbers are far higher in Iran).

Meanwhile, the total number of cases has climbed to 2,502, up from 2,036 late Monday.

ITALIAN DEATH TOLL OF PATIENTS WHO TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS RISES TO 79 FROM 52
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IN ITALY RISES TO 2502 FROM 2036 ON MONDAY

wakka12

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Isn't that effectively giving up on 'containment'?

Yes, French government announced several days ago that priority was slowing the onset of a major epidemic, and not containment

Unearthly

Few other bits and bobs I picked up from WHO conference, I didn't watch it all

- it's less infectious than influenza. If it was the same or more, then the reduction in China would not be possible

- no evidence China are lying about their numbers

- not enough confirmed cases in places like South America that would warrant a global pandemic call. This would be an irrational thing to do.

- even if they fail to stop it, slowing it down is crucial and in particular at this time of year so if a country gets their spread of cases in a few weeks, there will be more beds available as flu season would be over

- emphasised it's a lot worse than Flu due to the fatality rates - 3.4% compared to flu which is less than 1%

CinemaGuy45

Deleted User wrote: »

Any link to the WHO saying this? I suspect it's misinterpretation of the figures....e.g...

If 100 people get it per day
after 1 week, 700 have contracted it
lets say 96 people are cleared
and 4 die

So, out of the 100 cases that are finished (with 600 still ongoing), you've 96 in the clear and 4 fatalities, so the mortality rate is 4%.

In reality, 4 out of 700 have died, which is 0.58%. It may well be the case that once you survive the 1st couple of days, you're fine....but you still technically have the disease. Now, more could very well die, but the % depends on which figure you use.

My post was tongue in cheek;)

We have had enough debates about numbers.:)

BLIZZARD7

229 in a serious/critical condition out of 2,502 cases in Italy.
160 recovered.
79 dead.

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

1

Which is quite encouraging. Fingers crossed any new cases in the next few weeks are only a trickle, that would be the best case scenario.

Graces7

blanch152 wrote: »

Eh no, that is a lie.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/20/swine-flu-vaccine-case-settled-but-hopes-for-legal-precedent-dashed

"the state admitted no liability, which will come as a blow to dozens of other people with narcolepsy considering similar cases and hoping for a legal precedent."

Don't be giving false hopes to people who think they caught narcolepsy.

I was referring to the UK/English court settlements , being English myself.

And you need please to quote fully before posting as you did. REALLY ! HSE avoided actual compensation but the test case person won an undisclosed amount in settlement, Ireland does not yet have the same scheme as the UK whereby if a firm does as HSE did to avoid massive costs, a financial award is made as compensation. Legalese.
Ireland is working on this scheme. While HSE avoided liability there is no doubt that the cause of the narcolepsy was a rare side effect of the vaccine
which was rushed through in an epidemic .

Would be grateful if someone would link to the UK court case page and the Irish one.. I cannot link here. With the thought of a new vaccine in the offing this is relevant to the thread .

over and out from m eon this; my increasing illness is at an extremely high level today but I needed to clear my name! before sleeping or trying to. Thank you.

Thank you for that courtesy ,

CinemaGuy45

I suspect the death rate is higher than most will admit but much lower then many fear.

expectationlost

expectationlost wrote: »

surprised the released the info about the band. https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0303/1119921-coronavirus/

was there something about the HSE/Harris not releasing new case numbers till Tuesday?

If someone gets confirmed, they will release in real time. Otherwise, figures for tests carried out will be on a Tuesday.

josip

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

229 in a serious/critical condition out of 2,502 cases in Italy.
160 recovered.
79 dead.

Italy has more elderly than other European countries so it's unlikely that their mortality rate would be repeated elsewhere.

wakka12

Very surprised by WHO saying the death rate is 3.4%??? What is this based on? If it was that high surely we would be seeing way more deaths in for example South Korea with 4000 cases and on the cruise ship the death rate is only 1% and that is not even taking into account the older age of the passengers

Fr_Dougal

Strazdas wrote: »

Which is quite encouraging. Fingers crossed any new cases in the next few weeks are only a trickle, that would be the best case scenario.

They will be a trickle, the HSE is only doing 12 tests each week.

Frank Bullitt

Deleted User wrote: »

Anyone else trying to pull a few silver linings out of this yet? Like using the commotion as an excuse to get out of doing shít you don't wanna do..."Sorry, I would love to do that but I'm self-isolating."

Just me?

People will actually wash their hands properly now, that is a big silver lining from this.

cnocbui

Redacted, apparently misinformation. Apologies.

AlekSmart

How many Chinese folk do not have any illness....I mean how many healthy Chinese are left in China ?

Tootsie_1

Gintonious wrote: »

People will actually wash their hands properly now, that is a big silver lining from this.

very true noticed in work today people properly washing their hands and spending time doing it.

bodhrandude

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Why does it feel like panic over? Everything now under control, Chinese cases dropping hugely daily and nothing else worth reporting.

Loafing Oaf

wakka12 wrote: »

Very surprised by WHO saying the death rate is 3.4%??? What is this based on?

Presumably they're taking Chinese and Iranian figures at face value. I guess they have to do that, even if they have grave doubts about them.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

cnocbui wrote: »

This is supposedly what a Chinese Doctor in Shenzen who has treated Covid-19 patients had to say about the virus and precautions:


https://minerva10.wordpress.com/2020/02/17/report-from-coronavirus-epicentre-a-dry-cough-and-not-a-runny-nose/

Already been pasted here as something somebody got on WhatsApp, a lot of the information in it is incorrect.

cnocbui

Gintonious wrote: »

People will actually wash their hands properly now, that is a big silver lining from this.

I hope the shortage of hand sanitiser can be overcome rapidly as facilities with which to be able to wash your hands are not that common.

Kermit.de.frog

josip wrote: »

Italy has more elderly than other European countries so it's unlikely that their mortality rate would be repeated elsewhere.

And Iran?

Which looks on a whole different level right now even to Italy.

cnocbui

Brenden Agreeable Rabble-rouser wrote: »

Already been pasted here as something somebody got on WhatsApp, a lot of the information in it is incorrect.

What in it is incorrect?

wakka12

AlekSmart wrote: »

How many Chinese folk do not have any illness....I mean how many healthy Chinese are left in China ?

Are you joking? 0.00006% of Chinese population contracted it

Fr_Dougal

cnocbui wrote: »

This is supposedly what a Chinese Doctor in Shenzen who has treated Covid-19 patients had to say about the virus and precautions:


https://minerva10.wordpress.com/2020/02/17/report-from-coronavirus-epicentre-a-dry-cough-and-not-a-runny-nose/

I know you didn’t write it, but it’s utter crap.

BLIZZARD7

josip wrote: »

Italy has more elderly than other European countries so it's unlikely that their mortality rate would be repeated elsewhere.

This is true but other old population countries like Germany have 196 cases with 0 deaths and only 2 in a critical/serious condition. France with 4 deaths out of 203 cases, 8 serious/critical. Whilst these are smaller samples its interesting we are seeing these differences.

It might be due to fact alot of Italy's initial confirmed cases were in hospital wards with elderly patients. Maybe its younger people with it in Germany etc so far.

WHO global mortality rate of 3.4% is definitely concerning though.

eeepaulo

josip wrote: »

Italy has more elderly than other European countries so it's unlikely that their mortality rate would be repeated elsewhere.

I was actually just looking at ages, apparently every death in Italy was over 63 years old.

These are the worldwide rates (it is the chance of dying if infected, so does not add up to 100%)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

AGE all cases death rate
80+ years old 14.80%
70-79 years old 8.00%
60-69 years old 3.60%
50-59 years old 1.30%
40-49 years old 0.40%
30-39 years old 0.20%
20-29 years old 0.20%
10-19 years old 0.20%
0-9 years old no fatalities


PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE DEATH RATE
confirmed cases all cases
Cardiovascular disease 13.20% 10.50%
Diabetes 9.20% 7.30%
Chronic respiratory disease 8.00% 6.30%
Hypertension 8.40% 6.00%
Cancer 7.60% 5.60%
no pre-existing conditions 0.90%


Looks like it is going to be really skewed towards old people and ill people (i assume there is a large cross over there)

igCorcaigh

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

I suspect the death rate is higher than most will admit but much lower then many fear.

I'm fearing 1 to 3pc.

What we can control though, is the extent and rate of spread. If we choose to.