Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

MadYaker

cson wrote: »

Anecdotally they wont be bringing it this year, the huge uncertainty with travel to Europe has pushed most folks I know to booking domestic vacations this year - it ties into what UA/DL/AA all said at the JPM Conference, domestic bookings are very strong in the US at the moment.

Side bar; I despair when I look at how its being handled for you all, there's a strong chance that I'll be vaccinated over here in the US before my 65+ high risk category Dad back home gets his one. I feel so sorry for everyone in Ireland right now, looks like a throwback to the suffering for sufferings sake that was the order of the day back in the 50s/60s. I hope its remembered in the next General Election.

I guess you aren’t part of one of the hundreds of thousands of families over there who have buried a loved one. I’ll take our approach over theirs any day of the week.

cson

Jack1985 wrote: »

I should point out, I don't expect anywhere near what we may have been use to in terms of US-Ireland tourism levels, I do anticipate recovery beginning at some sort of level from Q3 onward. Something like 70% of Tourism suffered last year in Ireland, a well-known hotelier in Kerry pointed out on an earnings basis he is dependent on high spending Americans. However small the recovery maybe they are needed, with the pace of American vaccination there will be no reasonable opposition that could be justified to remaining closed. I did read JetBlue were dealing, domestically of course, with unprecedented levels of demand for forward bookings. America's airlines have been well supported, I do believe they can confidently say the worst is behind them.

I agree that Q3 will see some material return of transatlantic travel, JetBlue have actually started laying track on rolling out their BOS-LHR route this autumn, it was showing up in the LHR website departures list for a bit til they pulled it.

Aer Lingus should be pretty well placed to take advantage of an uptick, particularly if the AA agreement starts funneling US pax onto their aircraft.

MadYaker wrote: »

I guess you aren’t part of one of the hundreds of thousands of families over there who have buried a loved one. I’ll take our approach over theirs any day of the week.

You've just read what you wanted to read there mate. I was making the comment vis-a-vis vaccination approaches. The US are doing a phenomenal job on the rollout.

PommieBast

cson wrote: »

I feel so sorry for everyone in Ireland right now, looks like a throwback to the suffering for sufferings sake that was the order of the day back in the 50s/60s. I hope its remembered in the next General Election.

Having just finished my third travel-related isolation with no-one checking up on me it does seem like gov't strategy is based around making people feel miserable rather than actually doing anything themselves to stop Covid.

Jack1985

PommieBast wrote: »

Having just finished my third travel-related isolation with no-one checking up on me it does seem like gov't strategy is based around making people feel miserable rather than actually doing anything themselves to stop Covid.

With the numbers travelling this is ridiculous. Civil servants who actually run the nation have lots to answer for, but who am I kidding, accountable to no one.

MrMusician18

cson wrote: »

Anecdotally they wont be bringing it this year, the huge uncertainty with travel to Europe has pushed most folks I know to booking domestic vacations this year - it ties into what UA/DL/AA all said at the JPM Conference, domestic bookings are very strong in the US at the moment.

Side bar; I despair when I look at how its being handled for you all, there's a strong chance that I'll be vaccinated over here in the US before my 65+ high risk category Dad back home gets his one. I feel so sorry for everyone in Ireland right now, looks like a throwback to the suffering for sufferings sake that was the order of the day back in the 50s/60s. I hope its remembered in the next General Election.

How exactly was it meant to be different? Some nations are well ahead in vaccination because they took a punt on some candidates that paid off (could just as easily gone wrong) or are hoarding vaccines.
Apart from reserve, almost every single vaccine that lands in Ireland is in someone's arm within 3-5 days.

There t really is an unrealistic expectation on what the Irish government can achieve.

LiamaDelta

Tenger wrote: »

Thats is true. But I was thinking that such a move would see an increase in transfers through Dublin to/from the US.

I read the new NPHET statement this morning. Very grim reading. But another example of "we're not all in this together"

If the European situation improves before July I can see a lotof pressure on our lot to lift restrictions. FF/FG don't want to be seen out of step with the EU.

Given that each country gets allocated vaccine proportional to its population the likelihood is that the majority of Europe will have similar rates of vaccination, thus allowing some coordination of restriction lifting/travel allowances

PommieBast

MrMusician18 wrote: »

How exactly was it meant to be different?

There are still many areas the state could get things done but instead chooses not to. For example the Irish passport office. Rather than operating at reduced capacity, have decided to shut down completely for Level-5 and not even return people's documentation.

0lddog

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Given that each country gets allocated vaccine proportional to its population the likelihood is that the majority of Europe will have similar rates of vaccination, thus allowing some coordination of restriction lifting/travel allowances

I think that you will find that Ms von der leyen's home country has a side deal going and will have more shots available than just their 'EU allocation'

EDIT :

Deleted User wrote: »

Easily disproved: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html
....

Are these reports incorrect ?
https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/commission-takes-evasive-action-over-germanys-vaccine-side-deal/
https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/150554

L1011

This is a topic for the main covid forum, not here.

0lddog

0lddog wrote: »

I think that you will find that Ms von der leyen's home country has a side deal going and will have more shots available than just their 'EU allocation'

Easily disproved: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html
back to the aviation discussion.

Inquitus

cson wrote: »

Anecdotally they wont be bringing it this year, the huge uncertainty with travel to Europe has pushed most folks I know to booking domestic vacations this year - it ties into what UA/DL/AA all said at the JPM Conference, domestic bookings are very strong in the US at the moment.

Side bar; I despair when I look at how its being handled for you all, there's a strong chance that I'll be vaccinated over here in the US before my 65+ high risk category Dad back home gets his one. I feel so sorry for everyone in Ireland right now, looks like a throwback to the suffering for sufferings sake that was the order of the day back in the 50s/60s. I hope its remembered in the next General Election.

Yep, I am happy not to be in the country that has the world's worst deaths by population, and has mismanaged this since day 1. The Vaccination may well be going well, but yanks still have a higher incidence per 100,000 than we do despite that!

Nijmegen

Fairly bleak piece here on the prospects for the summer with the situation around Europe at the moment - both cases and vaccinations. Seems like a write off for summer 2.0 is on the cards for Europe. Will be hard if the UK and US is roaring ahead thanks to vaccines.

https://skift.com/2021/03/20/european-tourisms-summer-threatened-by-new-setbacks-and-shutdowns/

donkey balls

PommieBast wrote: »

There are still many areas the state could get things done but instead chooses not to. For example the Irish passport office. Rather than operating at reduced capacity, have decided to shut down completely for Level-5 and not even return people's documentation.

Yep it's a bit of a joke having an essential service not in operation, Where by you have private companies who are essential put measures in place to minimise the risk of their staff getting CV19.
Was only talking to a few of the lads in work the other day and we couldn't believe that a year had gone by all ready when we where called in and advised of our new working roster.
Regarding the vaccination programme the HSE via an agency had a big recruitment campaign last month,Looking for medics and other people with medical backgrounds to administer the vaccine.
I know a lad whose a medic and applied for the job and got it he has yet to be placed.
People without under lying illness be lucky to get the vaccine by the 4th qtr of this year.

NSAman

MadYaker wrote: »

I guess you aren’t part of one of the hundreds of thousands of families over there who have buried a loved one. I’ll take our approach over theirs any day of the week.

No offence, but it’s been nearly two years since I have seen my family.

In that period I have lost close family in Ireland and not been able to be home.

I WILL travel once the boarder restrictions are lifted in the US.

I will also have a vaccine before hand, I will continue to keep my distance from people, if I have to isolate in Ireland so be it.

Saying stupid things like this when there are many people like myself, who through no fault of their own have isolated, kept to all the rules and looked after everyone around then is ridiculous..

Aer Lingus is on its knees, American carriers are recovering thanks to vaccinations and people NEED to see family. Ireland needs to start getting vaccines through quicker. Instead of holding the country to ransom, NPHET should be taking a more pro-active approach with government and the HSE to source vaccine and not just wait for EU to dole it out.

PommieBast

donkey balls wrote: »

People without under lying illness be lucky to get the vaccine by the 4th qtr of this year.

There's going to be a lot of vaccine tourism in the next few months, especially since the NHS in NI have basically said they will not be enforcing residency checks. Add in the duty-free prices you can now get in Heathrow..

Blut2

Nijmegen wrote: »

Fairly bleak piece here on the prospects for the summer with the situation around Europe at the moment - both cases and vaccinations. Seems like a write off for summer 2.0 is on the cards for Europe. Will be hard if the UK and US is roaring ahead thanks to vaccines.

https://skift.com/2021/03/20/european-tourisms-summer-threatened-by-new-setbacks-and-shutdowns/

That seems overly pessimistic when countries like Greece and Portugal are already announcing they'll be open for tourists. Portugal from as early as Mid-May:



(from the Financial Times a few days ago)

I can't imagine the other heavily tourism dependent economies of Greece, Croatia, Spain and Italy will be far behind. And if last summer showed us anything its that if countries are open to tourists then a large number will go - regardless of restrictions at home.

IngazZagni

Last summer we didn't have large fines for non essential travel. In fact you were allowed to travel to green list Countries last summer with no pcr test or quarantine requirements. Very different scenario now with mandatory PCR tests most likely remaining in place for some time.
Again I'm just being realistic but the biggest issue is the rules here in Ireland, not those in Spain or Greece.

Imagine getting a positive test in Spain just before you are due to travel home. You'll end up being stuck for 2 weeks before being allowed to travel home.

Masala

IngazZagni wrote: »

Last summer we didn't have large fines for non essential travel. In fact you were allowed to travel to green list Countries last summer with no pcr test or quarantine requirements. Very different scenario now with mandatory PCR tests most likely remaining in place for some time.
Again I'm just being realistic but the biggest issue is the rules here in Ireland, not those in Spain or Greece.

Imagine getting a positive test in Spain just before you are due to travel home. You'll end up being stuck for 2 weeks before being allowed to travel home.

I would imagine that Travel Insurance will be difficult to get that will cove4 this scenario as well

basill

Just "imagine" getting on with life and weighing up all the risks that stepping outside of the front door each day entails.

Masala

basill wrote: »

Just "imagine" getting on with life and weighing up all the risks that stepping outside of the front door each day entails.

Wouldn’t fancy getting stuck in Spain as a family of 4 looking for the cash to pay for an extra 2 weeks accommodation. Never mind the cost of RE-arranging flights (especially if they are Ryanair). That’s serious cash reserves needed to be found in a hurry.

IngazZagni

basill wrote: »

Just "imagine" getting on with life and weighing up all the risks that stepping outside of the front door each day entails.

I’m against our strict restrictions but I’m just being realistic. As strict as our rules are the opposition want them to be even stricter!

Masala wrote: »

Wouldn’t fancy getting stuck in Spain as a family of 4 looking for the cash to pay for an extra 2 weeks accommodation. Never mind the cost of RE-arranging flights (especially if they are Ryanair). That’s serious cash reserves needed to be found in a hurry.

Exactly. Between flights, additional pcr tests and 2 weeks extra accommodation you are easily looking at over €2,000 in extra costs for a family of 4 with a positive test. That’s before you consider work implications from being abroad an extra 2 weeks.

Sultan of Bling

Masala wrote:

Wouldn’t fancy getting stuck in Spain as a family of 4 looking for the cash to pay for an extra 2 weeks accommodation. Never mind the cost of RE-arranging flights (especially if they are Ryanair). That’s serious cash reserves needed to be found in a hurry.

Just call the Irish independent. You and your family can pose for a photograph with put on sad faces and tell everyone how hard done by you are and how it's everyone else's fault except yours.

Masala

Sultan of Bling wrote: »

Just call the Irish independent. You and your family can pose for a photograph with put on sad faces and tell everyone how hard done by you are and how it's everyone else's fault except yours.

Hey Man !! No need to call the Press.... cos I’ll be sitting in my back garden with beer in hand and steaks on the BBQ watching my kids jump in to a paddling pool.

Masala

Masala wrote: »

Hey Man !! No need to call the Press.... cos I’ll be sitting in my back garden with beer in hand and steaks on the BBQ watching my kids jump in to a paddling pool.

and what will you do after that 15 minute interval between the showers?

Locker10a

IngazZagni wrote: »

Imagine getting a positive test in Spain just before you are due to travel home. You'll end up being stuck for 2 weeks before being allowed to travel home.

A group of us have a holiday planned, 3 of us have our vaccines so we’re going, hell or high water, we’ll find a way there and back. But those who don’t have vaccines can’t commit, and this is why, the PCR option isn’t as simple as it sounds for this reason! But otherwise.... roll on the green pass or whatever it’s called

Blut2

IngazZagni wrote: »

Last summer we didn't have large fines for non essential travel. In fact you were allowed to travel to green list Countries last summer with no pcr test or quarantine requirements. Very different scenario now with mandatory PCR tests most likely remaining in place for some time.
Again I'm just being realistic but the biggest issue is the rules here in Ireland, not those in Spain or Greece.

Imagine getting a positive test in Spain just before you are due to travel home. You'll end up being stuck for 2 weeks before being allowed to travel home.

You're still perfectly legally entitled to travel now for a large number of reasons - a funeral, a wedding, a medical appointment, visiting a grave, taking care of a sick person etc. Theres absolutely no problem with the gardai at Dublin airport as long as you claim one of these, and most of them are completely un-provable. Thats not a barrier to travel for anyone who wants to who has any common sense.

Portugal starting May 17th (edit: and Greece, from May 14th) have already said evidence of recovery from covid (which almost 250k Irish people have done), or a vaccination (which 650k Irish people have had as of today) will mean theres no need for an outgoing PCR test. Thats a good percentage of Ireland's 3.5million adults already covered, and obviously rapidly expanding as the vaccination program ramps up.

If the EU adopts Portugal and Greece's rules (which is highly likely given its not just them pushing for them, its every tourism dependent country) for all internal travel, as is heavily rumoured currently, then Ireland will be forced to adopt them too. So by peak summer season the vast majority of the Irish population won't need negative PCR tests to return from EU destinations either.

Locker10a

Blut2 wrote: »

So by peak summer season the vast majority of the Irish population won't need negative PCR tests to return from EU destinations either.

Please God

Van.Bosch

Blut2 wrote: »

You're still perfectly legally entitled to travel now for a large number of reasons - a funeral, a wedding, a medical appointment, visiting a grave, taking care of a sick person etc. Theres absolutely no problem with the gardai at Dublin airport as long as you claim one of these, and most of them are completely un-provable. Thats not a barrier to travel for anyone who wants to who has any common sense.

Portugal starting May 17th (edit: and Greece, from May 14th) have already said evidence of recovery from covid (which almost 250k Irish people have done), or a vaccination (which 650k Irish people have had as of today) will mean theres no need for an outgoing PCR test. Thats a good percentage of Ireland's 3.5million adults already covered, and obviously rapidly expanding as the vaccination program ramps up.

If the EU adopts Portugal and Greece's rules (which is highly likely given its not just them pushing for them, its every tourism dependent country) for all internal travel, as is heavily rumoured currently, then Ireland will be forced to adopt them too. So by peak summer season the vast majority of the Irish population won't need negative PCR tests to return from EU destinations either.

All valid but the vaccine numbers are wrong, 650 doses have been given, you need to be fully vaccinated, that’s only 175,000 but by summer should be a hell of a lot more.

Blut2

Van.Bosch wrote: »

All valid but the vaccine numbers are wrong, 650 doses have been given, you need to be fully vaccinated, that’s only 175,000 but by summer should be a hell of a lot more.

Portugal & Greece (and the EU) haven't yet stated if the vaccination requirement is for a single vaccine dose or two doses.

Given the difficulties in verifying that, and verifying the different vaccines (J&J being one dose, or will Sputnik be accepted given some EU countries are using it now even though the EMA hasn't approved it etc) the speculation is that any proof of vaccination will likely be accepted as good enough - even a single dose. The difference in effectiveness between the first and second dose is far, far smaller (80%->93% with Pfizer iirc) than the difference of no dose vs the first dose (0% -> 80%) so that does make some sort of sense.

Nijmegen

European airline shares falling in particular after the weekend of UK ministers pointing out that surges outside the UK will lead to continued travel restrictions.

IAG fell as much as 16%, the most since March 16, 2020, when lockdowns went into effect across the world, and was down 4.5% at 10:14 a.m. in London. Ryanair Holdings Plc dropped as much as 7.4% while EasyJet Plc slid as much as 10%.

“Airlines and travel operators had seemingly refused to countenance the cataclysmic idea of another heavily disrupted summer and had been busily advertising to an increasingly inoculated U.K. population,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “The travel sector is waking up on Monday to a dose of reality.”

.......

The latest measures -- along with confusion over testing and quarantines, and the fact that young people are still to be vaccinated -- mean that “most of the expectations of summer are implausible and imponderable,” Citigroup analysts led by Mark Manduca wrote in a note to clients Monday. “Summer in our view will be anything but normal.”

Not great now.