Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

gral6

It’s only a matter of time before mandatory quarantine for all countries will be made permanent regardless of vaccines.

Varadkar is trying to blame variants that the cases will never go below 500 a day.
Also he says“ a lot more countries will be added to the quarantine list”.

It is very sad. There is no end of the tunnel for Irish aviation and ordinary people who want to travel. Thanks god, we still have Belfast airport

Blut2

gral6 wrote: »

It’s only a matter of time before mandatory quarantine for all countries will be made permanent regardless of vaccines.

Varadkar is trying to blame variants that the cases will never go below 500 a day.
Also he says“ a lot more countries will be added to the quarantine list”.

It is very sad. There is no end of the tunnel for Irish aviation and ordinary people who want to travel. Thanks god, we still have Belfast airport

That seems extremely unlikely. The EU today voted to fast-track the corona virus travel pass to be in place by June:

https://www.politico.eu/article/meps-vote-to-fast-track-digital-green-certificates/

Its going to have the same rules as Greece / Portugal's mentioned above - any of a negative test within the last 72 hours, evidence of recovery from corona, or a vaccination, to travel. And will allow travel within the EU.

edit: and Fine Gael and Fianna Fail's MEPs both voted in favour of it, just for some additional context.

On top of that we're highly unlikely to apply mandatory quarantine to Americans arriving (we were one of the few countries in the EU to never prevent them from arriving at any point during corona) for business reasons. And we can't prevent arrivals from the UK for political/legal reasons.

So at the very least we're likely to have easy travel between Ireland and the EU/US/UK this summer. Further afield is unlikely/potentially subject to mandatory quarantine yes, but its not like we've ever had many direct flights elsewhere to begin with.

Inquitus

Blut2 wrote: »

So at the very least we're likely to have easy travel between Ireland and the EU/US/UK this summer. Further afield is unlikely/potentially subject to mandatory quarantine yes, but its not like we've ever had many direct flights elsewhere to begin with.

We are still banned from US travel, with our vaccination rates and the worry about variants I don't think that will change in a hurry. Good news about EU travel however.

Blut2

Inquitus wrote: »

We are still banned from US travel, with our vaccination rates and the worry about variants I don't think that will change in a hurry. Good news about EU travel however.

Anyone can still fly US->Ireland no problem currently though. And from Ireland to the US no problem if they have a US passport.

Rumours are the entry ban as it applies to Ireland is due to be lifted in mid-May supposedly anyway. We're going to get lucky in that we're lumped in with the UK (and their much much more positive numbers) rather than Schengen because of our being in the CTA and not Schengen.

Nijmegen

A sorbet for the "airline travel is safe" palate. It's not the risk of catching Covid on the plane that's the issue...

Travel was ‘significant contributor’ to second Covid-19 wave – study

Of 131 cases analysed from the first wave, March to June, two types of virus were found in 69 per cent of sequences but they were no longer detected by mid-June. In the second wave, from July, a new virus “lineage” – first reported in September – made up 82 per cent of the cases.

The study found that none of the common types of virus detected in the first wave re-emerged in the second with the exception of a single case of a first-wave variant found on December 21st.

......

The research addresses for the first time with clear data that the Covid-19 circulating in the second wave came from overseas rather than a resurgence from the first wave.

It has been really odd how slow government has been to move on the whole issue in any way, shape or form.

And yes, of course "Doesn't matter what you do people will come in via the north" remains a key concern. As we continue through another month of lockdown and all the economic damage, with variants undermining vaccine efficacy, government might just have to grow some stones on that issue - "do as we do or we'll PCR everyone at the border, no matter the tailbacks" or something. Otherwise it feels like 1 vaccine resistant variant and we're at this craic through 2022.

Blut2

60,000 people cross the NI border back and forth every day. PCR testing them constantly would be extremely problematic logistically, ruinously expensive and politically extremely hard to sell to the Catholic community up North and our border communities. And even if by some miracle you made it happen it then wouldn't guarantee to keep any new variants out - with a border as porous as that, with daily movement back and forth, PCR testing wouldn't catch everything.

Covid19 is never going away, variants are going to evolve on a regular basis now, just like with the 'normal' flu. All we can do is vaccinate the most at risk as best we can, give them 6 monthly/yearly boosters targeted at new strains like with the flu, and then accept that new reality and go back to normal life.

NH2013

Indeed, besides that, no new variant has been found that the vaccines haven't been effective against, so once domestic travel is allowed to resume variants can't be used as an excuse against travel, there's no strong argument against international travel vs domestic travel, particularly for those either vaccinated, tested or recovered, as proposed by the European Commission.

acequion

Blut2 wrote: »

Covid19 is never going away, variants are going to evolve on a regular basis now, just like with the 'normal' flu. All we can do is vaccinate the most at risk as best we can, give them 6 monthly/yearly boosters targeted at new strains like with the flu, and then accept that new reality and go back to normal life.

This is the most sensible thing I've read in the entire Coronavirus forum this weekend and it's also the blunt reality. The problem is that a very dangerous animal, much more dangerous than the virus, has been spawned by the propaganda machine and fed by non stop hysteria, hyperbole and irrational fear.

How to now convince Govts and terrified populations, especially our own, that it's high time to actually start living with Covid! Before infrastructure that took decades to build, such as Irish aviation, collapse completely.

gral6

US, France, Germany and Italy set for Ireland’s new mandatory hotel quarantine list.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/us-france-germany-and-italy-set-for-irelands-new-mandatory-hotel-quarantine-list-40255783.html

That's it. There'll be a lot of cobweb for next few years in Irish airports.
Thanks god, we can take a bus to Belfast airport.

Germany has lower incidence rate per 100000 than Ireland.

flanzer

gral6 wrote: »

That's it. There'll be a lot of cobweb for next few years in Irish airports.

There won't you know. This is only temporary, possibly until June/July until countries can get on top of vaccinations. The early data shows that vaccinations are effective on all the variants, and only slightly less effective on the SA one and Brazilian one

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

Germany has lower incidence rate per 100000 than Ireland.

It appears to be about 30% higher, plus they have more prevalence of the nasty variants which is the primary concern

L1011

L1011 wrote: »

It appears to be about 30% higher, plus they have more prevalence of the nasty variants which is the primary concern

7 day rate is 135 in Germany. If you have more granular data available to you you use more granular data...especially when you are inconveniencing so many people.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4

Blut2

gral6 wrote: »

US, France, Germany and Italy set for Ireland’s new mandatory hotel quarantine list.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/us-france-germany-and-italy-set-for-irelands-new-mandatory-hotel-quarantine-list-40255783.html

That's it. There'll be a lot of cobweb for next few years in Irish airports.
Thanks god, we can take a bus to Belfast airport.

Thats pretty shocking if it comes to pass. I'd wonder about the legality of imposing the mandatory quarantine on travel from within the EU.

Cookiemunster

Blut2 wrote: »

Thats pretty shocking if it comes to pass. I'd wonder about the legality of imposing the mandatory quarantine on travel from within the EU.

Well the Germans had banned us from even entering the country. If they can do that, I don't really see any issues here.

Locker10a

Blut2 wrote: »

Thats pretty shocking if it comes to pass. I'd wonder about the legality of imposing the mandatory quarantine on travel from within the EU.

It’s already in place for Austria ... let’s see what happens

Nijmegen

Blut2 wrote: »

Thats pretty shocking if it comes to pass. I'd wonder about the legality of imposing the mandatory quarantine on travel from within the EU.

"European Commission, fresh from being made to look like absolute mugs on vaccine procurement, is telling member states not to impede travel within the EU" is a headline I look forward to reading. In reality, all the norms went out the window 12 months ago.

Blut2

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Well the Germans had banned us from even entering the country. If they can do that, I don't really see any issues here.

The German travel ban on entry from Ireland was never complete. It had plenty of exemptions such as anyone resident in Germany, anyone with German citizenship etc. It was completely different from enforcing mandatory hotel quarantine for all arrivals. And it was also very temporary, it only lasted a few weeks. It expired before it could be challenged.

Nijmegen wrote: »

"European Commission, fresh from being made to look like absolute mugs on vaccine procurement, is telling member states not to impede travel within the EU" is a headline I look forward to reading. In reality, all the norms went out the window 12 months ago.

Its nothing to do with "norms", its everything to do with the legal guarantee of freedom of movement between EU member states for EU citizens. Short of constitutional amendments you can't just ignore laws.

Theres a good reason not a single other EU state has introduced mandatory hotel quarantine for EU travel like this - its likely to fail, expensively and embarrassingly, to a legal challenge.

bk

Blut2 wrote: »

Its nothing to do with "norms", its everything to do with the legal guarantee of freedom of movement between EU member states for EU citizens. Short of constitutional amendments you can't just ignore laws.

Theres a good reason not a single other EU state has introduced mandatory hotel quarantine for EU travel like this - its likely to fail, expensively and embarrassingly, to a legal challenge.

Freedom of movement within the EU has always come with exceptions for security and public health reasons.

Countries throughout the EU have been closing their land borders throughout the last year with no legal consequences.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/41/free-movement-of-workers

B. Restrictions on freedom of movement

The Treaty allows a Member State to refuse an EU national the right of entry or residence on the grounds of public policy, public security or public health.

If anything our Mandatory hotel quarantines are more inline with the spirit of the Freedom of Movement for Work legislation then hard border closures we have seen throughout mainland Europe.

It still allows EU citizens to move to Ireland and work, it just requires them to quarantine for two weeks.

Tenger

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Germany has lower incidence rate per 100000 than Ireland.

That is true but its not a relative threshold.
The threshold is incidence rate of 500 per 100K.
(wasn't this the EU trigger for "Red" under the traffic light system?)

But saying another 43 countries does strike me as too cautious/timid. USA, France and Germany are vaccinating so any data from the last 2 weeks can't be a valid excuse for a decision affecting next week/month.
The situation is changing as they talk.

BigMoose

According to the department of foreign affairs, the traffic light system had red at >150 per 100k or over 50 per 100k if positive rates were >4%. There is a "dark red" introduced end of Jan this year for over 500 per 100k : https://dfa.ie/travel/travel-advice/eu-traffic-lights-approach/

gral6

2 PCR tests would be needed now before you go around and about now according to Leo. One before you leave your destination and one when you arrive in Ireland, taken at Dublin airport.
If you are tested positive, then you'll be escorted by armed soldiers into detention hotels to stay there for 2 weeks at your own expense.
The final nails into coffin of Irish aviation have been hammered. Great job gov!

Tenger

gral6 wrote: »

.......
If you are tested positive, then you'll be escorted by armed soldiers into detention hotels to stay there for 2 weeks at your own expense.........

Troop aren't armed at the airport.
A negative result on day 10 will result in you leaving the hotel.

gral6

Tenger wrote: »

Troop aren't armed at the airport.
A negative result on day 10 will result in you leaving the hotel.

That's a relief for aviation industry and travelers! Thanks for the peace of mind !

Inquitus

gral6 wrote: »

2 PCR tests would be needed now before you go around and about now according to Leo. One before you leave your destination and one when you arrive in Ireland, taken at Dublin airport.
If you are tested positive, then you'll be escorted by armed soldiers into detention hotels to stay there for 2 weeks at your own expense.
The final nails into coffin of Irish aviation have been hammered. Great job gov!

What do you expect them to do? Clearly travel should be restricted at this juncture and a PCR test prior to Departure and on Arrival seems reasonable. Only people with genuine needs to travel should be travelling.

I agree its bad for the aviation industry but I just don't see any alternative.

Gael23

I think they have destroyed aviation beyond repair now

TeaPot918

I hadn't heard of the "Travel Expert Advisory Group" until yesterday. Do we know who's on it? A quick google of it results in links only from the past 24 hours.

PommieBast

Inquitus wrote: »

I agree its bad for the aviation industry but I just don't see any alternative

Actually enforcing self-isolation would have been a good start. I have done it three times so far and the only checking was an SMS that looked a bit too much like a phishing attack.

Blut2

bk wrote: »

Freedom of movement within the EU has always come with exceptions for security and public health reasons.

Countries throughout the EU have been closing their land borders throughout the last year with no legal consequences.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/41/free-movement-of-workers

If anything our Mandatory hotel quarantines are more inline with the spirit of the Freedom of Movement for Work legislation then hard border closures we have seen throughout mainland Europe.

It still allows EU citizens to move to Ireland and work, it just requires them to quarantine for two weeks.

Again, the land borders being closed were not blanket bans of the sort apparently being recommended to the Irish government. In every case they were limited in scope either by geography or demographics.

The attorney general disagrees with your interpretation:

The Attorney General is understood to have expressed significant concern about the plan to extend mandatory hotel quarantine to 43 additional countries, including the US, France and Germany.

The reservations are understood to be based in large part on Ireland’s obligations under EU law to ensure the free movement of people and also that on the State’s powers to detain people.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/attorney-general-concerned-at-plan-to-expand-countries-on-quarantine-list-1.4525043

MrMusician18

Blut2 wrote: »

Again, the land borders being closed were not blanket bans of the sort apparently being recommended to the Irish government. In every case they were limited in scope either by geography or demographics.

The attorney general disagrees with your interpretation:



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/attorney-general-concerned-at-plan-to-expand-countries-on-quarantine-list-1.4525043

Funny how the AG can express concern about something being impossible legally then all of a sudden a way can be found to make it happen.

Free movement can be suspended in times of crisis, sure borders were re-erected without consequence because of migrants a few years ago. Looks like to me the govt is looking for cover behind the AG because mandatory quarantine for Germany France and the US would be highly damaging politically and economically.