Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Stevieluvsye

Inquitus wrote: »

There will be a lot less business class travel post Covid as many multinationals have seen the evidence of how much can be accomplished remotely, and how much money they can save on their T&E spend. Remember it was not just execs flying business class, many multinationals fly employees business class if the flight is over 5 hours or so.

Ye, that's right actually.

LiamaDelta

Inquitus wrote: »

There will be a lot less business class travel post Covid as many multinationals have seen the evidence of how much can be accomplished remotely, and how much money they can save on their T&E spend. Remember it was not just execs flying business class, many multinationals fly employees business class if the flight is over 5 hours or so.

I'd agree here. The knock-on effect is that the business class travel was subsidising the economy passengers so there will be a certain amount of price increase in Y which will temper demand also.

PommieBast

Inquitus wrote: »

There will be a lot less business class travel post Covid as many multinationals have seen the evidence of how much can be accomplished remotely, and how much money they can save on their T&E spend. Remember it was not just execs flying business class, many multinationals fly employees business class if the flight is over 5 hours or so.

I suspect that companies that clamp down the most will be the ones that had penny-pinching CFOs even before Covid-19. For instance Intel required those flying out of Europe to use at most premium economy unless they have a medical reason to fly business.

Topgear on Dave

Inquitus wrote: »

Remember it was not just execs flying business class, many multinationals fly employees business class if the flight is over 5 hours or so.

I wish I knew this years ago. I used to do quite a lot of flying in one job I had and premium economy would be as much as they'd ever give. Flight length didn't matter, they'd upgrade for a medical reason alright.

Stevieluvsye

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

I wish I knew this years ago. I used to do quite a lot of flying in one job I had and premium economy would be as much as they'd ever give.

It depends on each companies policy.

Inquitus

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

It depends on each companies policy.

Aye if I had to guess for Transatlantic I'd say its about a 50/50 split between those who are mean, and those who allow business class flights. Intel don't, Google do as an example.

Noxegon

In a past life when I was travelling regularly for work the policy was always that I should use the cheapest flight possible – convenience and/or direct services didn't matter.

L1011

Noxegon wrote: »

In a past life when I was travelling regularly for work the policy was always that I should use the cheapest flight possible – convenience and/or direct services didn't matter.

A day-before booking to AMS for me in late 2019 resulted in the AerSpace EI fare being cheaper than anything else. Screenshots sent in with the expense report and it was repaid :pac:

BigMoose

For IT companies I've worked for in the last 15+ years (both Irish and American) it's been economy only regardless of length unless VP or above (I've clearly been working for the wrong companies!), but I've been allowed to chose whatever airline/route I want within reason. Although for really long (ie New Zealand) I have had exceptions for business class.

Anyhow I agree with the general conclusion here that some business travel will return but not all. For customer visits in my role I think there will be a mix of video calls and travel as you cant build the same relationships without face to face meetings and the dinner/pub chats after. These make the video calls more productive too, so what used to be 4 trips to a customer in a year will post covid likely be 1-2 with more regular shorter video calls.

Re the top execs, I really hope they have learned that flying round the world 1st or business for a 3 hour board meeting is crazy economics when it can be done as effectively on zoom... Time will tell. But I'm not convinced they don't enjoy it and will get back to flying soon enough.

For internal trips my manager is eager we get together again as collaboration more productive face to face along with the team building beer after. But again that's all economy, so it'll likely be up to me how often I want to fly economy to US verses doing workshops on zoom. Maybe what used to be 5 or 6 trips a year will now be 3?

cson

I'm kind of surprised that no carrier has any form of true short haul J in Europe (the EI A321LRs aside), I would think there would be some demand for it.

Even the regional CRJs have it over here in the US.

Gael23

The only saviour of the aviation industry will be some amount of lent up demand. Other than that it will not emerge in anything like the same shape it did before. Particularly long haul, they are utterly screwed

Chris_5339762

Inquitus wrote: »

There will be a lot less business class travel post Covid as many multinationals have seen the evidence of how much can be accomplished remotely, and how much money they can save on their T&E spend. Remember it was not just execs flying business class, many multinationals fly employees business class if the flight is over 5 hours or so.

Where I work it was pretty much Ryanair or you can say bye-bye to travel. If they could have gotten you there cheaper by shoving you in a crate and mailing you, they would have.


Several levels of executives to sign off even a UK trip, with their wages spent working on it much higher than the flight price! And even then, the flight cost went up while all the faffing happened!!!

IngazZagni

cson wrote: »

I'm kind of surprised that no carrier has any form of true short haul J in Europe (the EI A321LRs aside), I would think there would be some demand for it.

Even the regional CRJs have it over here in the US.

There is a lot more efficient competition in Europe. As a result air fares in Europe are significantly cheaper than in the USA. This squeeze on margins really forces airlines to maximise revenue on every flight and the demand for a J fare on internal European flights just isn’t there when you can get a much cheaper fare on what is a short flight. We also wouldn’t have the same level of business travel as in the States. Maybe you could argue Dublin to London does but with fares regularly being €20 for a 1 hour flight there simply isn’t a big enough market for a bigger seat for many multiples of that price.

Noxegon

cson wrote: »

I'm kind of surprised that no carrier has any form of true short haul J in Europe (the EI A321LRs aside), I would think there would be some demand for it. Even the regional CRJs have it over here in the US.

This. I'd be quite happy to pay for a business class service for most of my personal travel if I had the option.

I flew FR DUB-PFO a few years ago, and ended up with a numb backside...

Nijmegen

BigMoose wrote: »

Re the top execs, I really hope they have learned that flying round the world 1st or business for a 3 hour board meeting is crazy economics when it can be done as effectively on zoom... Time will tell. But I'm not convinced they don't enjoy it and will get back to flying soon enough.

I have been involved on both sides of these kinds of meetings and they are just nuts. The amount of times I have been dragged to London in particular for an hour is nuts. Though now I guess I'm going to miss the duty free opportunities...!

I think I've mentioned here before, I've had occasions where I've flown US->home->US two days later for a few hours worth of a meeting, arranged last minute. Cutting out that kind of crap will save more time than money I'd reckon.

Also, don't forget the conference and events business. The rise in virtual conferencing events will again, not kill but perhaps seriously curtail these events. Even 10% lobbed off that business is big money for airlines, hotel groups, and particular cities like one in the desert near Area 51.

BigMoose

I've done Dublin to San Diego for an hours presentation... but that was economy, so maybe my employer thought it worth the cost!

As for events/conferences, this one I'm curious over as I'm personally less bothered to attend technical conferences if it's sat on my backside at home for hours listening online and I dont get the pleasure of the food/booze! I think for these conferences there will be some of those in person but I'm sure companies are wondering if the cost of the "industry sales" conferences are actually worth it having gone a year or two without.

Tenger

cson wrote: »

I'm kind of surprised that no carrier has any form of true short haul J in Europe (the EI A321LRs aside), I would think there would be some demand for it.

Even the regional CRJs have it over here in the US.

Different industry in many ways. Those J class cabins are often 40-50% full of points or status upgrades rather than actual paying J class passengers.
I think Swiss and Turkish are the last short-haul J class in Europe. (open to correction)

cson

Tenger wrote: »

Different industry in many ways. Those J class cabins are often 40-50% full of points or status upgrades rather than actual paying J class passengers.
I think Swiss and Turkish are the last short-haul J class in Europe. (open to correction)

I think European airlines are missing a trick with frequent flyer programs (to your point about upgrades) - the US3 were able to secure debt against theirs back at the start of the pandemic.

goingnowhere

Aeroflot also have proper J even on narrowbody

PadraigBr

Thankfully, the vaccines have been invented for coronavirus. Hope everything will be in control soon.

Stevieluvsye

PadraigBr wrote: »

Thankfully, the vaccines have been invented for coronavirus. Hope everything will be in control soon.

How long is soon though. That's the million dollar question. I'm changing my flights this morning with EI to mid september while i don't incur any additional costs. Hopefully we'll be good by then

PinOnTheRight

A slight drift but interesting news today regarding the Astra Zeneca Vaccine and a recent study showing that it helps reduce transmission rather than just reduce the severity of the illness.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55913913

Inquitus

IngazZagni wrote: »

There is a lot more efficient competition in Europe. As a result air fares in Europe are significantly cheaper than in the USA. This squeeze on margins really forces airlines to maximise revenue on every flight and the demand for a J fare on internal European flights just isn’t there when you can get a much cheaper fare on what is a short flight. We also wouldn’t have the same level of business travel as in the States. Maybe you could argue Dublin to London does but with fares regularly being €20 for a 1 hour flight there simply isn’t a big enough market for a bigger seat for many multiples of that price.

I used to be platinum with American when I was working a lot over in the US, I would get a free upgrade on pretty much every US Domestic leg. The seats have a bit more room, you get a PDB (Pre Departure Beverage) plus free drinks on the flight, you don't qualify for lounge access though with Domestic business class in the US mind, I always qualified as I was platinum and that is a big miss in the experience of US Domestic J. The lounge gives you a nice space to relax in, recharge devices, have a drink and some food.

Personally I couldn't justify spending the extra money on J if it was coming out of my pocket for US Domestic flights, lounge access is the most necessary thing after a transatlantic leg when you have time to kill before your flight to your final destination.

BigMoose

I used to be Gold on Delta and would get upgraded on pretty much every domestic US flight, but that slowly eroded as more and more reached gold until by the time I stopped using them 3-4 years ago over half the plane was gold which made it useless.

Personally don't see why you'd bother paying for a bigger seat (but nothing like a transatlantic J seat), some beer and a bit of food on those flights. You can buy some beer/food if you really want down the back. Given most European hops are shorter I would think there's even less of a market for it there.

Noxegon

BigMoose wrote: »

Personally don't see why you'd bother paying for a bigger seat

Because I like to be comfortable.

Tenzor07

I just hope that Government increase or give payments to the DAA and operators out of the Airports if we're to maintain the infrastructure so it's in a place to be able to come back when there's an eventual upswing on travel and economic activity, otherwise it will set the country back 10 years rather than just 5 in terms of the economic benefits Airports give....
No reporters allowed into the terminal building without a boarding pass would be a start!

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/daa-boss-blames-media-and-gardai-for-passenger-slump-40055760.html

opinionated3

PadraigBr wrote: »

Thankfully, the vaccines have been invented for coronavirus. Hope everything will be in control soon.

Looks like the hardened attitude of the government is going to put paid to any foreign travel this year ( apart from non essential). Will be interesting to see what support packages are put in place for the aviation sector. Airlines, airport staff, MRO companies will all be looking for a temporary bailout of sorts to get them through this out else the job losses will be catastrophic. I'm not too optimistic, have an awful feeling brewing that I'll be out of a job before years end☹️

Tenzor07

opinionated3 wrote: »

Looks like the hardened attitude of the government is going to put paid to any foreign travel this year ( apart from non essential). Will be interesting to see what support packages are put in place for the aviation sector. Airlines, airport staff, MRO companies will all be looking for a temporary bailout of sorts to get them through this out else the job losses will be catastrophic. I'm not too optimistic, have an awful feeling brewing that I'll be out of a job before years end☹️

With a "Green" minister for Transport and a Government who can't even come up with a workable plan for "living" with Covid then I can't see this happening...

Whatever about killing the Tourism/Hospitality sectors with the Garda siege of the Airports, they are also killing the vital Air Links into this Island, Emirates are down to 4 flights a week, how long before 2 flights... then Zero flights, and that's just one example..

Many of the Airlines and MRO's etc. are all run/H.Q'd out of the UK or US so won't qualify for Government money, and am sure they're looking at their losses on the Irish operation on a weekly basis...and can withdraw from the country once the loses become too great....

Bottom line, routes, services and all the benefits to the Irish economy are being lost the longer the State has no plan to restart the economy and they will take years to come back with all the jobs if at all..

trellheim

We're reporting that 60 passengers were expected on a flight from Istabul to Edinburgh this morning. Having presumably been informed of Scottish quarantine restrictions at check-in, the plane took off with 6 passengers on board.

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1361273797463138304

Turkey-Scotland, but still.

Tenger

trellheim wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1361273797463138304

Turkey-Scotland, but still.

Really shows the ratio of "essential" and "non-essential" travel. Simplistic I know.

Some of those 54 no shows may have reassessed their plans and will travel later. Many may have rebooked via LHR or MAN to enter Scotland by land.
Another reason to have a 2 island solution, with mandatory quarantine.