Storm Jorge : February 29th

M.T. Cranium

I guess my earlier comments were mostly a response to the misplacement rather than false logic of criticizing the county-wide forecasting alert system. It's not what I would do, and it's probably not what many others would do. The fact that it is done gets the same criticism in each storm but it's now a given so I am not sure what if anything can be done about it.

Also, I don't think anyone among the regulars around here would be expecting a county-wide red alert to verify anywhere but near the coast unless it were an exceptional storm. So the fact that not even orange alert conditions may have materialized at any given point is perhaps not that surprising. Some places are sheltered in such a way that they are rarely going to see gusts much over 80 km/hr (from normal storm directions).

Oneiric mentioned Ophelia and overly extensive red alerts with that. I don't recall which counties were unnecessarily included; I do have a memory of the track and advice given out in our thread about what would actually happen in Connacht.

I think in general we have had some limited success in our storm threads in perhaps explaining to those who visit only at storm times what the range of possible outcomes might be. At this point, I can't imagine that most Irish people hearing about red or orange alerts for their county would automatically think their location must be included, but let's say there is such a problem, then it needs to be addressef with routine disclaimers built into TV and radio messaging, and on the internet links to the text of said alerts, that "such conditions may develop at more exposed locations in the counties named, and not in all locations."

But I suspect that would only be potentially helpful to the few people who hadn't already worked that out for themselves, yet might on that occasion have it made known to them. I suspect that anyone who got to this point not realizing said fact might be impervious to working it out at any future point in time too.

What I will try to do is to post our own "boards weather forum" interpretative maps of the alerts for future storms (of this magnitude, not every little yellow alert). Then perhaps if those maps are found wanting in specific terms, we would have something we could actually discuss with some purpose. I can't see much point in hammering away at this Met E county-wide issue on every storm thread. It will just guarantee that an undercurrent of "storm did not live up to its billing" will be inevitable, since we know that no storm is likely to validate the county-wide alert all over each county.

Now if the alert level fails to materialize anywhere in a given county, that's a somewhat different issue. But there again, a better place to raise those concerns is the thread about the met service forecasts. Just my two cents worth anyway. The more interesting question for me would be, why do these developed models almost always seem to overforecast wind speeds? Three possible explanations come to mind:

(a) the data base of past events has insufficient detail in terms of pressure patterns for those storms, so the models think the past events with their known wind speeds were less intense on the pressure gradient scale than reality ;

(b) some aspect of rising ocean temperatures has a feedback effect that is not sufficiently understood by those developing said models;

(c) carbon dioxide is too dense to be easily moved.

Did you spot the facetious entry?

Anyway, a second order of problems is the use of said guidance ... here, the possible errors that can creep into the sequence would be

(a) forecasters are too reliant on numerical weather guidance and should insert more human control into the process;

(b) forecasters need to confer with modellers to find out what their standards of verification might be ... for example, with that "flash ICON" would they claim any sort of success based on the very strongest gust at some highly exposed buoy, or a land weather station? That might help the forecasters realize what the model's output was actually predicting. With this storm, I have no doubt that somewhere on a cliff or a barren hill, a gust of 150 km/hr took place. But when we see numerical weather prediction with that sort of number, we tend to think it will verify somewhere a little more relevant to the users of weather forecasts.

(c) there is no (c). Maybe there should be. Over to you.

M.T. Cranium

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here's the latest update to the popular storm comparison table for max wind gusts - honestly blown away by just how popular it has become. In this update, I have removed Fastnet Lighthouse because I showed it previously to show just how non-comparable it was to other stations. I have added Jorge and Dennis (last update posted on here was during Ciara). If Jorge has stronger gusts at any station in the next few hours or so than those shown in the table, I will come back to this post and update it in due course.

For those who didn't see the 70s-90s comparison table (and Debbie) I posted in the stats thread, I have also quoted that. Back when there were some proper severe windstorms that directly impacted Ireland and some of our worst on record like Debbie, Jan 1974 and Feb 1988.

For new visitors, the gusts are colour coded based on the warning system set out on met.ie. Yellow is 90-110 km/h, Orange is 111-130 km/h and Red is greater than 130 km/h.





I have also had the courtesy to update the "Storm Index" list to include the new additions and you'll be surprised with the 70s-90s ones (and Debbie) despite the lower number of stations considered.

Debbie ____ 74 (est) (57 from my table)
Darwin ____ 72
Jan11 1974_69
Feb09 1988_68
Feb27 1903_68 (est)
Jan02 1976_64
Dec24 1997_62
Feb26 1990_60
Jan27 1974_60
Jan05 1991_59
Dec26 1998_53
Ulli _______ 51
Ophelia ____49
Doris ______49
Erich ______49
Brendan___48
Jan25 1990_47
Eleanor ____47
Ciara______43
Rachel _____41
Dennis_____40
Barney_____40
Atiyah _____39
Hergen ____ 39
Elsa_______38
Erik _______38
Gareth ____ 37
Hannah ____36
Bawbag ____36
Callum ____ 34
Diana _____ 33
N/A 2011 __ 33
Jorge______33
Dirk ______ 28
Frank______26
Brian _____ 25
Deirdre ____22
Lorenzo ___ 15

Comparing the old ones is just for fun here to show they stack up, even with the limited data. And they sure do! All of them are nearly at the top.

EDIT: First update... Malin Head gust of 111 km/h brings it into orange territory so one point added for Storm Jorge above.

A late goal in injury time but Jorge was already safe from relegation to the second division. However, its fans had expected perhaps a place in Europe. Instead we have to be satisfied with our winning record against storms that should not have been named at all.

Graces7

High winds driving hail and icy rain. A most inhospitable and chilly Sunday with loud sound effects!

DOCARCH

Maybe for the next storm, there should be no forecasts/model discussion allowed in the weather forum in advance of the storm. Everybody can then report their experiences during the storm. Then, after the storm, we can prepare a hindcast and stick it at the top of the thread.

That should keep everybody happy?

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think I remember both these events. That January one was around new years day if I remember correctly? (or that could be 2006, I'm not sure) Brutish winds with hail and thunder mixed in for good measure.

It was January 1st, 2005. I remember the date because I was in Italy at the time and was raging to have missed it. An A330 was blown against another plane at Dublin Airport, such was the gust. I think it was all down to a sting jet. There's a report on met.ie, if I recall.

DOCARCH

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It was January 1st, 2005. I remember the date because I was in Italy at the time and was raging to have missed it.

Yip. I was living in Dublin 15 at the time and I remember driving to have a look at nearby estate where about 30 to 40 houses had lost some or most of their roof tiles. Talk of the time was 'mini' tornado.

Gaoth Laidir

In the case of Jorge I don't think the models got the winds too high, just the timing wrong. It seems to have reached those peak speeds, but earlier and hence out further west. By 25W the low was already well vertically stacked, with that digging 500 hPa trough cutting off, all a little earlier than previously forecast. The problem with a vast ocean of observational nothingness upstream of us doesn't help, so we're always going to have more uncertainty than countries further east (including GB).

I would like to have had access to this wealth of model data 20-30 years ago to see how they would have dealt with those proper storms, but with the AMO heading negative again within the next decade or so we may get to see this repeated and the storms of old returning. Here's hoping, anyway.

watlantic

Re: Warnings
Concerning the discussion re warnings, I'd just like to get this off my chest:
When you see a fence with the warning ''Beware of the dog'' and then stick your hand through it, do you go complaining when the guard dog hasn't bitten it off ? Do you go and say ''That warning sign shouldn't be there'' ?
Where's common sense gone...

Oneiric 3

JCX BXC wrote: »

But it's the SYSTEM that you've just complained about, not the storm. .

This thread title, in all its emboldened red glory, was based on that very system.

Anyway, the elders, it seems, hath spoken. So out of respect for them I will hold my peace, which isn't to say that I don't stand by what I have said, because I absolutely do.

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It was January 1st, 2005. I remember the date because I was in Italy at the time and was raging to have missed it. An A330 was blown against another plane at Dublin Airport, such was the gust. I think it was all down to a sting jet. There's a report on met.ie, if I recall.

I remember that. I was living in Mervue at the time when that squall hit, which,if I remember correctly, was in the late morning, and was one of the most intense squalls I have witnessed. It was a relatively short-lived event though, at least in Galway, but the mammatus clouds that followed in its wake were something to behold. But the storm I was referring to occurred about a year later, either on NYD or the last day of December. There was intense hail + loud thunder coupled with what were easily 70 to 80 mph winds. Real coastal weather.

watlantic

watlantic wrote: »

Re: Warnings
Concerning the discussion re warnings, I'd just like to get this off my chest:
When you see a fence with the warning ''Beware of the dog'' and then stick your hand through it, do you go complaining when the guard dog hasn't bitten it off ? Do you go and say ''That warning sign shouldn't be there'' ?
Where's common sense gone...

Good to have the warning sign on the gate where the dog is, not so good having it on the next field gate where the dog can't get because it is on your land.
Like painting the whole of county Roscommon red because a storm will track over the northern corner, while having no affect on the southern end.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

People have a right to complain on a dedicated storm thread when that storm is not what it is sold to be.

If it causes unnecessary panic amongst vunerable people, i agree. M.T. Cranium might be dismissive of this as he feels these people can't be reached anyway. I am not one to routinely criticise Met Eireann, but i am not a fan of its opposite: those who won't accept valid criticism of Met Eireann when it's merited. Sryan's updated storm table , with the max gust at Malin Head backs up your criticism that this storm did not have the forecasted impact for most parts of the country. The often repeated danger is that when we do get a "storm of old" people will end up being killed because the public perception now seems to be " Shure Met Eireann exaggerate every little bit of winds these days".

Pretzill

watlantic wrote: »

Re: Warnings
Concerning the discussion re warnings, I'd just like to get this off my chest:
When you see a fence with the warning ''Beware of the dog'' and then stick your hand through it, do you go complaining when the guard dog hasn't bitten it off ? Do you go and say ''That warning sign shouldn't be there'' ?
Where's common sense gone...

I'm not complaining about the warnings (it's always good to be prepared) but to use your analogy it's like the Beware of the Dog sign had added to it 'It's a rabid rotweiller' when it turns out to be a happy golden retriever - too much hype when as it's a forecast we can't be sure.

Akrasia

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Good to have the warning sign on the gate where the dog is, not so good having it on the next field gate where the dog can't get because it is on your land.
Like painting the whole of county Roscommon red because a storm will track over the northern corner, while having no affect on the southern end.

But we all know that these storms shift their track so the Met Service cannot day for sure that it will only hit the top of a county....

They’re trying to warn people of a high risk of very damaging winds, not telling them that those winds are definitely going to blow down the tree in their front garden

Discodog

The problem isn't the Yellow warnings, it's the Red. Once a Red is issued it's treated like a major, danger to life event. For example the closing of businesses, shops etc in Galway had to happen once the word Red was mentioned. Health & safety, plus a fear of litigation force businesses & LA's to act. But there was no coordination. So businesses closed only to discover that there were no busses to get their employees home.

The other problem is the media. Windy day in Galway doesn't get clicks, Killer Storm does. ME are in an impossible situation. They are asked for advice & then castigated if there predictions are slightly wrong.

It is annoying when we have pages of posts complaining that area X isn't windy. I am not far from Galway & the wind on the Coast was as severe as any I have experienced in 20 years.

The knowledgeable people here do amazing work in prediction & forecasting. They also do it for free. A lot of the criticism is indirectly aimed at them. There is a world of difference between a post that says "Still relatively calm here" & one that says "Total damp squib, usual warning rubbish". IMO the second should get a forum ban.

I know the Mods & some posters don't like the idea but I still think that threads should be separated. We need good discussion but it appears we also need a separate area like a Weather After Hours. Maybe it could warrant a permanent thread where people can pretty much post what they want.

RoisinD

Much criticism on this thread, some by those who have chosen not to read some contributions. Some of us in Clare, along with some in Galway have stated that the Red was warranted for their areas. I would include myself in that category. NthClare described his drive from Ballyvaughan to Lahinch via Doolin yet his experience was largely ignored.

It seems that some would like every aspect of our lives to be controlled but thankfully Mother Nature doesn't agree. We never can tell what is going to happen weather wise all we can do is prepare as best we can. We ignore those warnings at our peril. Indeed in the past 2 weeks many decided to ignore the rainfall warnings. As a result one person lost his life, while another in North Clare had a very lucky escape with his car being swept off the road. Not to mention the 'thrill seekers' near Doolin one of whom who had to be rescued by the emergency services from a gorge in the Aille River. Most obeyed the warnings even though some thought it a good idea to go for a family 'drive' yesterday. What were they thinking? Who did they expect to come to their aid if they got into difficulty?

Many, many thanks to all on here who put so much effort into keeping us informed and up to date. It is appreciated and maybe we don't say it often enough. So many knowledgeable posters all willing to share and help. This is a great resource. I direct anyone who has an interest in the weather to come here for information. Onwards and upwards.

Donegal Storm

The biggest issue for me is the warning criteria, the yellow criteria is largely meaningless, we don't need a warning for a normal bit of wet or windy weather and orange warnings are too frequent as well.

Red warnings are described as "Rare and very dangerous weather conditions from intense meteorological phenomena" and "Extremely dangerous/destructive". An few 130kph gusts on exposed and largely unpopulated coastal headlands isn't extremely destructive, its again normal winter weather that essentially doesn't do anything. Houses in the west are built to deal with those winds, there's very few trees and it almost always passes without incident. Having it

People saying its the media's fault but ME have taken a distinctly Americanised turn ever since Ophelia, they dramatise all these 'events' in the tv forecasts and using coloured warnings and naming storms just plays into the media's hands.

There's too much emphasis on wind speed as well when in reality even some of the worst storms we've had in the past 50 years only cause minimal damage. A standard icey morning with black ice on the roads is far more dangerous than most of these dramatised storms

littlecopilot

Did anyone notice on the storm report on the news, they used footage from Adrian Weckler's review of the S20 zooming into cliffs. I watched this a few days before the storm and to see it on the news as part of the storm footage is just lazy. Well they did credit him on screen I guess but the footage from days before the storm made me smile

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/watch-the-incredible-zoom-on-samsungs-galaxy-s20-ultra-the-new-king-of-camera-phones-38989247.html

Discodog

I wonder if all of the "storm in a teacup" posts put off the many knowledgeable people from posting. It takes effort to find the right charts, post & interpret them only have to have someone moaning that it's calm in their area. Quite a few of the usual experts seem to be missing these days. In any debate, about splitting threads, I hope their views would be paramount otherwise the forum loses valuable contributors.

Graces7

watlantic wrote: »

Re: Warnings
Concerning the discussion re warnings, I'd just like to get this off my chest:
When you see a fence with the warning ''Beware of the dog'' and then stick your hand through it, do you go complaining when the guard dog hasn't bitten it off ? Do you go and say ''That warning sign shouldn't be there'' ?
Where's common sense gone...

Perfect analogy; thank you.

Graces7

nacho libre wrote: »

If it causes unnecessary panic amongst vunerable people, i agree. M.T. Cranium might be dismissive of this as he feels these people can't be reached anyway. I am not one to routinely criticise Met Eireann, but i am not a fan of its opposite: those who won't accept valid criticism of Met Eireann when it's merited. Sryan's updated storm table , with the max gust at Malin Head backs up your criticism that this storm did not have the forecasted impact for most parts of the country. The often repeated danger is that when we do get a "storm of old" people will end up being killed because the public perception now seems to be " Shure Met Eireann exaggerate every little bit of winds these days".

Nonsense. I would class as vulnerable and I know others who are. We take warnings seriously and "prepare for the worst" but are deeply happy if the worst does not happen. No harm done. A fuss was made re a farmers market being "wrongly " cancelled for example, As a very experienced former market trader I can tell you that that was the right decision given the forecast and was the responsible thing for the organisers to do, to avoid a potential huge loss of stock and equipment etc Not the end of the world if ONE market in February is lost.

It was bad out here, as it was in other areas designated red. They got it RIGHT; thank you!Well done!

Your last post is so.... .patronising! It really is ! As if we cannot see and hear what is actually happening! And make decisions accordingly.

And be thankful they are not getting blasted!

Weather is a wild and free phenomena. With the best of skills, which we have here, it tends to go off on its own way. That is nature. People do their best and deserve kudos for that THANK YOU!

I am happy with the system; it is the reactions that cause concern

PS. by all means two threads IF the second on is on AFTER HOURS, not here! Why not? Is has little technical input. Get the less technically interested (!!!) away from here. One poster asked for a second thread so he could " Post shoite without getting a warning!"
I am happy with the system; it is the reactions that cause issues.

Snow Garden

The water levels on Shannon and Corrib have not exceeded the levels from earlier in the week which is good news.
That might change tomorrow depending on runoff levels.

Oneiric 3

Graces7 wrote: »

[/B]


It was bad out here, as it was in other areas designated red. .

You weren't in a 'designated red' area; I was, and it wasn't bad here. At least get your facts right before you assume the authority to lecture.

nacho libre

Graces7 wrote: »

[/B]

Nonsense. I would class as vulnerable and I know others who are. We take warnings seriously and "prepare for the worst" but are deeply happy if the worst does not happen. No harm done. A fuss was made re a farmers market being "wrongly " cancelled for example, As a very experienced former market trader I can tell you that that was the right decision given the forecast and was the responsible thing for the organisers to do, to avoid a potential huge loss of stock and equipment etc Not the end of the world if ONE market in February is lost.

It was bad out here, as it was in other areas designated red. They got it RIGHT; thank you!Well done!

Your last post is so.... .patronising! It really is ! As if we cannot see and hear what is actually happening! And make decisions accordingly.

And be thankful they are not getting blasted!

Weather is a wild and free phenomena. With the best of skills, which we have here, it tends to go off on its own way. That is nature. People do their best and deserve kudos for that THANK YOU!

I am happy with the system; it is the reactions that cause concern

PS. by all means two threads IF the second on is on AFTER HOURS, not here! Why not? Is has little technical input. Get the less technically interested (!!!) away from here. One poster asked for a second thread so he could " Post shoite without getting a warning!"
I am happy with the system; it is the reactions that cause issues.

I would imagine most islanders follow the weather forecasts carefully, those are not the people i had in mind. Also i am not disputing that a red was valid for you and others in coastal regions of Galway and Clare, the issue is the warnings were not accurate for most other places- even in the counties they were issued for. Many people are not into the nuances of these warnings, they will assume the red warning was for all of Galway. So someone in Dunmore may wonder what all the fuss was about.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

If it causes unnecessary panic amongst vunerable people, i agree. M.T. Cranium might be dismissive of this as he feels these people can't be reached anyway. I am not one to routinely criticise Met Eireann, but i am not a fan of its opposite: those who won't accept valid criticism of Met Eireann when it's merited. Sryan's updated storm table , with the max gust at Malin Head backs up your criticism that this storm did not have the forecasted impact for most parts of the country. The often repeated danger is that when we do get a "storm of old" people will end up being killed because the public perception now seems to be " Shure Met Eireann exaggerate every little bit of winds these days".

I agree Nacho, but I do I think M.T is probably viewing this from a more technical perspective than anything else, which I can understand to some extent, and as for Met Eireann, this isn't really me going all out on them, just more about the methodology they apply when issuing these warnings, of which I have spoken about already. Somebody mentioned that 'MeteoAlarm' thing yesterday, and it makes me wonder are Met Eireann tied to its rules regarding regional warnings? Bureaucratic officialdom can be a burdensome and restricting machine.

But having said that, there is still no excuse for these one size fits warnings. Look at the map of Mayo and Galway for example. North Connemara and much of NE Galway are actually more north than southern parts of Mayo, which, in warning terms regarding westerly winds, is a big deal. Do winds become less dangerous once they reach southern Mayo from N. Connemara, only to become more dangerous again once they cross back into the other end of Galway? Makes absolutely no sense.. whatsoever.

ZX7R

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I agree Nacho, but I do I think M.T is probably viewing this from a more technical perspective than anything else, which I can understand to some extent, and as for Met Eireann, this isn't really me going all out on them, just more about the methodology they apply when issuing these warnings, of which I have spoken about already. Somebody mentioned that 'MeteoAlarm' thing yesterday, and it makes me wonder are Met Eireann tied to its rules regarding regional warnings? Bureaucratic officialdom can be a burdensome and restricting machine.

But having said that, there is still no excuse for these one size fits warnings. Look at the map of Mayo and Galway for example. North Connemara and much of NE Galway are actually more north than southern parts of Mayo, which, in warning terms regarding westerly winds, is a big deal. Do winds become less dangerous once they reach southern Mayo from N. Connemara, only to become more dangerous again once they cross back into the other end of Galway? Makes absolutely no sense.. whatsoever.

Met eireann are only restricted to the colour coding.
Regional difference and what constitutes the issuing of the warnings are for each member to decide

Oneiric 3

Discodog wrote: »

I wonder if all of the "storm in a teacup" posts put off the many knowledgeable people from posting. It takes effort to find the right charts, post & interpret them only have to have someone moaning that it's calm in their area. Quite a few of the usual experts seem to be missing these days. In any debate, about splitting threads, I hope their views would be paramount otherwise the forum loses valuable contributors.

I'm no expert, but I did take the trouble to post charts and I take the trouble to interpret them - hence my 'moaning'. but which is more than anything, as far as I can tell, what you yourself have contributed.

These pompous, self righteous, holier than thou posts are beginning to grate.

Jim_Hodge

Met Eireann's biggest problem seems to be using the political boundaries for alerts. The UK Met Office just highlight the relevant area like here
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=b3b823e2-9647-4684-b8d1-49ced7b7aedf&date=2020-03-02
County boundaries aren't a factor,

jimmynokia

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/weather-meteireann-warning-dublin-ireland-17840445

Sundew

littlecopilot wrote: »

Did anyone notice on the storm report on the news, they used footage from Adrian Weckler's review of the S20 zooming into cliffs. I watched this a few days before the storm and to see it on the news as part of the storm footage is just lazy. Well they did credit him on screen I guess but the footage from days before the storm made me smile

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/watch-the-incredible-zoom-on-samsungs-galaxy-s20-ultra-the-new-king-of-camera-phones-38989247.html

Pretty sure it's not the same "storm" he filmed as cabin doesn't disappear under a wave of sea spray. I regularly take photos/ videos of the same place on different days. Great footage all the same.