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Storm Jorge : February 29th

  • 27-02-2020 12:41pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,643 ✭✭✭


    This storm could have an impact on the south/west, and west coast

    One to watch


«13456721

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,218 ✭✭✭pauldry


    weisses wrote: »
    This storm could have an impact on the south/west, and west coast

    One to watch

    Why Jorge?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,862 ✭✭✭un5byh7sqpd2x0


    It's a Spanish named storm


  • Registered Users Posts: 530 ✭✭✭Dutchy


    Sexy winds are Jorge.


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭GolfNut33


    Affecting the east coast?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    It's a Spanish named storm

    Seriously?:rolleyes:


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,981 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GolfNut33 wrote: »
    Affecting the east coast?

    Met Eireann are getting in early with the warnings on this one. https://www.met.ie/warnings

    Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare and Kerry
    Some severe winds expected during Saturday associated with Storm Jorge (Hor-hay). Southwest quickly veering west and later northwest will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with gusts of 110 to 130km/h, possibly higher in very exposed areas with an elevated risk of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 06:00 Saturday 29/02/2020 to 03:00 Sunday 01/03/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 27/02/2020

    Status: Orange
    Wind warning for Donegal, Leitrim and Sligo
    Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Leitrim and Sligo

    Some severe winds expected during Saturday associated with Storm Jorge (Hor-hay).
    Southwest quickly veering west and later northwest will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with gusts of 110 to 130km/h, possibly higher in very exposed areas with an elevated risk of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 12:00 Saturday 29/02/2020 to 03:00 Sunday 01/03/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 27/02/2020

    Status: Yellow
    Rainfall warning for Munster, Connacht and Donegal
    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Munster, Connacht and Donegal

    Rainfall accumulations of 20 to 30mm expected during Friday and Saturday generally but 40 to 50 mm in parts of Kerry, with a continuing risk of flooding due to already saturated ground and elevated river levels.

    Valid: 00:01 Friday 28/02/2020 to 23:59 Saturday 29/02/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 27/02/2020

    Status: Yellow
    Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford
    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford

    A band of very strong winds, associated with storm Jorge (Hor-hay) will extend across the country during Saturday morning and persist through the rest of the day and into the night.
    Southwest veering westerly winds of mean speeds 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h expected.

    Valid: 09:00 Saturday 29/02/2020 to 03:00 Sunday 01/03/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 27/02/2020


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Met Eireann are getting in early with the warnings on this one. https://www.met.ie/warnings

    Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare and Kerry
    Some severe winds expected during Saturday associated with Storm Jorge (Hor-hay). Southwest quickly veering west and later northwest will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with gusts of 110 to 130km/h, possibly higher in very exposed areas with an elevated risk of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 06:00 Saturday 29/02/2020 to 03:00 Sunday 01/03/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 27/02/2020

    Status: Orange
    Wind warning for Donegal, Leitrim and Sligo
    Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Leitrim and Sligo

    Some severe winds expected during Saturday associated with Storm Jorge (Hor-hay).
    Southwest quickly veering west and later northwest will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with gusts of 110 to 130km/h, possibly higher in very exposed areas with an elevated risk of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 12:00 Saturday 29/02/2020 to 03:00 Sunday 01/03/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 27/02/2020

    Status: Yellow
    Rainfall warning for Munster, Connacht and Donegal
    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Munster, Connacht and Donegal

    Rainfall accumulations of 20 to 30mm expected during Friday and Saturday generally but 40 to 50 mm in parts of Kerry, with a continuing risk of flooding due to already saturated ground and elevated river levels.

    Valid: 00:01 Friday 28/02/2020 to 23:59 Saturday 29/02/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 27/02/2020

    Status: Yellow
    Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford
    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford

    A band of very strong winds, associated with storm Jorge (Hor-hay) will extend across the country during Saturday morning and persist through the rest of the day and into the night.
    Southwest veering westerly winds of mean speeds 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h expected.

    Valid: 09:00 Saturday 29/02/2020 to 03:00 Sunday 01/03/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 27/02/2020

    Odd to go straight to a warning instead of an advisory this far out?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,981 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Odd to go straight to a warning instead if an advisory this far out?

    Met Eireann must be feeling very confident about this one. I wasn't expecting any sort of warning till tomorrow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,161 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    It would be nice to get a week without a storm, wouldn't it?


  • Posts: 5,311 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Odd to go straight to a warning instead if an advisory this far out?

    Pre-empting the whinge merchants who are never satisfied with enough notice. Including those who still leave their vehicles on the Salthill prom.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 115 ✭✭NuttyMcNutty


    Hope the viruses don't go the same way as these storms, up to a point you wouldn't hear about these now we have a different one every week.:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Met Eireann must be feeling very confident about this one. I wasn't expecting any sort of warning till tomorrow.

    They where quick with the warnings but not quick enough Naming it 😂


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 17,786 Mod ✭✭✭✭Henry Ford III


    Getting fed up with all these storms


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    People of Ireland. Do not worry. The experts at the press have you covered:

    Sicbceg.png

    Unbelievable. Met Eireann issuing these coloured warnings must be a boon for these people.. and their advertisers.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,218 ✭✭✭pauldry


    NIMAN wrote: »
    It would be nice to get a week without a storm, wouldn't it?

    A weekEND you mean


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    It's only really the extreme northwest of Spain that will see anything of any severity on Saturday, and even at that, only up to 100-110 km/h in a small area. Seems a little ott to name it and give orange warnings for a cold front passing through.

    503978.PNG

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020022700_048.png

    More of interest will be in our neck of the woods.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020022700_060.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Is it possible that more counties could be added to the orange warning?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    It will be another non event. I am calling it now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,218 ✭✭✭pauldry


    easypazz wrote: »
    It will be another non event. I am calling it now.

    Should be storm Seoirse not flippin Jorge
    Its our storm


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,626 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    About the Spanish concern, maybe being a weekend in Lent there would be more than a few people planning to go on that famous walking trail ? Is it called Compostela? Perhaps someone in the know on that could enlighten us. By northwest Spain standards it is going to be quite cold with this strong wind, but as stated by GL they get a lot of that being in that exposed position.

    I was really getting ready for the Ellen angle, now this. After Humberto I suppose the law of averages means this will be Big Wind 2.0.

    (please tabloids I am sort of having a laff there, but there are a lot of isobars on the 06z GFS, enough for everyone to have their own personal one.)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    easypazz wrote: »
    It will be another non event. I am calling it now.

    Tell that to the people with flooded property who are looking forward to more rain.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭Stevieluvsye


    It's only really the extreme northwest of Spain that will see anything of any severity on Saturday, and even at that, only up to 100-110 km/h in a small area. Seems a little ott to name it and give orange warnings for a cold front passing through.

    Ye they are going mad over it on boards.es :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,211 ✭✭✭✭RobbingBandit


    Skipping over letters there too we should be on F not J


  • Registered Users Posts: 577 ✭✭✭R.F.


    I have no doubt someone has already answered. But I was looking at storm names the other day. And J was meant to be Storm Jan.

    And another thing! What the heck happened to Storm Ellen, Gerda, Francis and Hugh?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,211 ✭✭✭✭RobbingBandit


    Ellen was last weekend


  • Registered Users Posts: 577 ✭✭✭R.F.


    Ellen was last weekend

    I think weather has been so awful recently they have all merged into one for me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    R.F. wrote: »
    I have no doubt someone has already answered. But I was looking at storm names the other day. And J was meant to be Storm Jan.

    And another thing! What the heck happened to Storm Ellen, Gerda, Francis and Hugh?

    The Spanish and Portuguese use a different list than us, The UK, Netherlands and Denmark.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,147 ✭✭✭endainoz


    It's only really the extreme northwest of Spain that will see anything of any severity on Saturday, and even at that, only up to 100-110 km/h in a small area. Seems a little ott to name it and give orange warnings for a cold front passing through.

    503978.PNG

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020022700_048.png

    More of interest will be in our neck of the woods.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020022700_060.png

    I'm not so sure about this being overhyped, all models are agreeing on 110 + gusts for North Clare on Saturday from what I see. ICON has the usual overestimation but the rest of them are pretty consistent.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭nthclare


    endainoz wrote: »
    I'm not so sure about this being overhyped, all models are agreeing on 110 + gusts for North Clare on Saturday from what I see. ICON has the usual overestimation but the rest of them are pretty consistent.

    Magicseaweed is predicting 22ft waves in Lahinch on Saturday.
    Probably 16 would be more realistic.

    Although at high tide Black Head could be a spectacular show of a swell hitting hard.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    endainoz wrote: »
    I'm not so sure about this being overhyped, all models are agreeing on 110 + gusts for North Clare on Saturday from what I see. ICON has the usual overestimation but the rest of them are pretty consistent.

    I didn't mean it was hyped for us, only Spain.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    About the Spanish concern, maybe being a weekend in Lent there would be more than a few people planning to go on that famous walking trail ? Is it called Compostela? Perhaps someone in the know on that could enlighten us. By northwest Spain standards it is going to be quite cold with this strong wind, but as stated by GL they get a lot of that being in that exposed position.

    I was really getting ready for the Ellen angle, now this. After Humberto I suppose the law of averages means this will be Big Wind 2.0.

    (please tabloids I am sort of having a laff there, but there are a lot of isobars on the 06z GFS, enough for everyone to have their own personal one.)

    You mean the Camino de Santiago, 500 miles from St Jean Pied de Port ending in Santiago de Compostela. And yes, a very important pilgrimage at this season of Lent . Most take a full week over it. And the pilgrims will take the weather literally in their stride.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,981 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS going for 70 to 110km/h winds generally, maybe higher off western coasts.

    60-289UK.GIF?27-6

    Arpege generally similar but some much stronger gusts off the west coast with 140km/h possible.

    arpegeuk-11-65-0.png?27-12

    Icon is as usual over the top and showing red warning levels of 140 or 150km/h. They have way over estimated the past few storms so I wouldn't take this chart seriously, just like I wouldn't take the euro chart seriously for snow.

    iconeu_uk1-11-58-0.png?27-10

    will have to wait till tonight and see what the Hirlam brings. Probably will be something more sensible in line with the GFS.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,272 ✭✭✭✭flazio


    R.F. wrote: »
    I have no doubt someone has already answered. But I was looking at storm names the other day. And J was meant to be Storm Jan.

    And another thing! What the heck happened to Storm Ellen, Gerda, Francis and Hugh?

    The serious answer here is that the storm formed off the Iberian coast and therefore they got to name it. Storm Ellen has not hit yet. Last weekend didn’t get a name.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,147 ✭✭✭endainoz


    I didn't mean it was hyped for us, only Spain.

    Ah apologies, I read your post wrong!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,554 ✭✭✭Sundew


    Absolutely glorious day on the West Coast ( lovely bright sunny Spring day) thanks to MTs early warning post this morning...I made sure to get a nice 2 hr coastal walk done before I heard the Met Eireann warning on the radio.

    Looks like a trip to Lesureland in Salthill will have to postponed for a third time on Sat :(
    God I'm sick to death of these storms. Its feels like the whole month of Feb has been one continuous rain and wind fest!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    It's as if the storms and crap weather are doing it on purpose.
    "Oh so you want a nice weekend? Here's a storm for you.The rest of the week,be grand. Why don't you have another storm next weekend again".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    At a glance appears like most direct and impactful storm of season.

    No hype either, Saturday will be a day for indoors


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    At a glance appears like most direct and impactful storm of season.

    No hype either, Saturday will be a day for indoors

    Maybe a grand finale?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Graces7 wrote: »
    Maybe a grand finale?

    A farewell.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    pauldry wrote: »
    Why Jorge?

    In honour of the pope.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    flazio wrote: »
    The serious answer here is that the storm formed off the Iberian coast and therefore they got to name it. Storm Ellen has not hit yet. Last weekend didn’t get a name.

    It hasn't formed anywhere near Iberia. It's still way out east of New Foundland, at around 47N 37W (the unmarked low developing to the south of that 1002-hPa low).

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020022712_000.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    At a glance appears like most direct and impactful storm of season.

    No hype either, Saturday will be a day for indoors

    So I think what you are saying is that its probably not a good day to have a rugby match in Westport? :cool: 3rd cancellation in a row, tough spell of weather for field sports.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,373 ✭✭✭Shane O' Malley




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    A farewell.

    AH yes; much better word! thank you..I am so tired I cannot even raise any reaction etc to this one. In between storms, high winds.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Looks like a total nothing for Spain, why are they getting in on the act?! :mad:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    Looks like a total nothing for Spain, why are they getting in on the act?! :mad:

    Our fish for years, now stealing our storm naming rights.. the bas*ards!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,139 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    IMO

    ECM o6Z and GFS 12Z quite similar in bringing the center of the Storm closer to the W and across the NW / N

    Showing 50 kt mean barbs and 70 Kt gust barbs along the coasts from Kerry up to Galway. Winds gusting up around 110 km/h overland.

    Possible or fairly probable frontal snow event Saturday morning, very wintry at least for a time. Looks like accumulations inland but details will firm up more tomorrow re this.

    Thinking this has increased wind speeds over the last few runs, ECM ,UKMO and GFS quite bunched in track and strength, ARPEGE and ICON have the system a bit further North so keeping the strongest winds to the W.

    Thinking that it wouldn't take much more to make this a red warning for Kerry and Clare going by the current ECM and GFS. I think the GFS at close range is quite reliable and that is a fairly severe chart just out. More counties will probably go into the Orange wind warning category .

    anim_zby3.gif


    85TjWGf.png

    ay70Fmi.png


    anim_pox0.gif

    k2EOlOO.png


    FdG25Dr.png


    vjaXVJG.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 85 ✭✭ChristyM


    I see the National Emergency Coordination Group is to meet tomorrow in advance of Storm Jorge

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0227/1117923-weather-warning/

    PS That's a nice photo of Fenit


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,227 ✭✭✭pad199207


    George Lee nailing it all “The Spanish noticed it first”


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    IMO

    ECM o6Z and GFS 12Z quite similar in bringing the center of the Storm closer to the W and across the NW / N

    Showing 50 kt mean barbs and 70 Kt gust barbs along the coasts from Kerry up to Galway. Winds gusting up around 110 km/h overland.

    Possible or fairly probable frontal snow event Saturday morning, very wintry at least for a time. Looks like accumulations inland but details will firm up more tomorrow re this.

    Thinking this has increased wind speeds over the last few runs, ECM ,UKMO and GFS quite bunched in track and strength, ARPEGE and ICON have the system a bit further North so keeping the strongest winds to the W.

    Thinking that it wouldn't take much more to make this a red warning for Kerry and Clare going by the current ECM and GFS. I think the GFS at close range is quite reliable and that is a fairly severe chart just out. More counties will probably go into the Orange wind warning category .

    anim_zby3.gif


    85TjWGf.png

    ay70Fmi.png


    anim_pox0.gif

    k2EOlOO.png


    FdG25Dr.png


    vjaXVJG.png

    How much precipitation are we likely to get between tomorrow morning and Sunday evening.
    Is the Shannon going to get worse with flooding?


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