Property Market 2020

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

I think I agree with what you are saying but It’s sad that people think SF will solve their problems. If they ever do get into government it will make things a lot worse.

Yes i wouldnt be too confident either in SF. But which every party or new party makes it No.1 and follows through will be in a majority government for a long time to come.

Its effect on house prices and rent will be to bring them down to a more realistic and affordable levels outside of the wealthy areas.

With no emigration and a growing population the policy of driving house prices beyond the reach of most people will mean either current policy is changed by the existing crowd or they will be cleaned out at the next election.

lastusername

Deub wrote: »

From you post, it looks like you don’t expect a drop at all and maybe even an increase.
You think the unemployment will have no effect?

I think they will stay steady in Dublin at least and reckon there is enough pent-up demand among those who are still in a position to buy to keep those prices steady, even if there is a lot of unemployment..

lastusername

I don't follow why that makes for a bubble in the housing market?

Not sure what you mean but just mean that there are lots of people out there still waiting and ready to buy - those who still have jobs and savings and qualify for a mortgage. There may be fewer now but still plenty of competition out there.

neutral guy

The most common problem that people spending bank money for that reason they does not feel the real value of them
Government stay away from everything telling that Market will adjust him self .
But each time when property market/banks/mortgage holders goes into trouble the government has to step in and fight with fire using tax payers money,our money !
The more houses prices goes up the more problems government has which have fight with homelessness using tax payers money ,our money again.
There is plenty homeless people since last recession,massive money are spent trough HAPs,social housing ,etc and more a lot more will has to be spent after this recession coming.
Because less people could afford own houses and more people cant afford this types of rents I think big changes on way.
The situation when people spend all them wages for rent and has no money for food and other stuff will have to be change.Because when people spend less the government get less.
I will repeat again,economy are dead and we are alive just because government pay us Covid payment and wage subsidies.
In this situation talk about property prices will rise or even will stay at same level is to early.
The talks about supply and demand are the same as talks about which petrol and how long will move the car but very often we forget that first somebody has to buy petrol first.
I choose waiting position if prices will not goes down they will definetelly will not go up in today situation
If somebody got mortgage approval and can lose jobs tomorrow then yes,they should move at full speed forward buying any house at any price.Not pay mortgage will be better than not pay rent.

PommieBast

The Belly wrote: »

Yes i wouldnt be too confident either in SF. But which every party or new party makes it No.1 and follows through will be in a majority government for a long time to come.

The trouble is time-scale. My guess is that it will take 5-10 years to properly sort out housing, so such a party will be long gone before it can reap any electoral reward.

PommieBast

The Belly wrote: »

Why? Homeowners vote and will vote for the status quo as long as property prices are rising. Large scale affordable housing is not good for property or rental prices. What good for society doesnt matter. Its the votes that count.

My view of a few years ago is that the government itself had a much more direct interest in rising prices, namely NAMA.

theballz

The is a second wave globally of this pandemic coming soon. The market is going to crash badly in Q4. Do not buy now.

neutral guy

First hit to rental market.About 110K people will get Covid payment reduced from 350 to 203

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-to-avoid-cliff-edge-on-covid-19-payment-changes-1.4296769

neutral guy

theballz wrote: »

The is a second wave globally of this pandemic coming soon. The market is going to crash badly in Q4. Do not buy now.

The another reality we also have see after elections in USA.

Villa05

PommieBast wrote:

The trouble is time-scale. My guess is that it will take 5-10 years to properly sort out housing, so such a party will be long gone before it can reap any electoral reward.

The issue is that the last 2 governments have been adding to the problem rather than attempting a solution.

Buying up existing housing for social housing rather than building on land they own
Paying 1 billion a year on rents
Selling state controlled housing to vulture funds and reits
Stoking the demand side without doing anything on the supply side
Layers and layers of regulation, beuracracy, and nimbyism blockin/slowing new builds

Is it not too much to ask to avoid having children being in homeless situation. The fact that the numbers of children classed as homeless has grown is yet another monumental failure

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

The issue is that the last 2 governments have been adding to the problem rather than attempting a solution.

Buying up existing housing for social housing rather than building on land they own
Paying 1 billion a year on rents
Selling state controlled housing to vulture funds and reits
Stoking the demand side without doing anything on the supply side
Layers and layers of regulation, beuracracy, and nimbyism blockin/slowing new builds

Is it not too much to ask to avoid having children being in homeless situation. The fact that the numbers of children classed as homeless has grown is yet another monumental failure

Whose responsibility is it to ensure children have a roof over their head ? Personally I’ll make sure mine do I won’t be looking for someone else to do it. Nor would I have had kids if I didn’t have the means to care for them .

Bass Reeves

The Belly wrote: »

The property and rental crisis is government policy.

They could solve the problem if they borrowed the required amount necessary and build on a massive scale using a tender process using the major developers. They have the land control the taxation and can borrow money for close zero interest.

But they wont do it.

Why? Homeowners vote and will vote for the status quo as long as property prices are rising. Large scale affordable housing is not good for property or rental prices. What good for society doesnt matter. Its the votes that count.

But it will eventually come to ahead.

The voting in the last election was the start of it with SF getting the most of the 25-50 age bracket vote.

This is the age group badly affected during the last crisis and who struggle to buy an affordable home.

This covid crisis and the subsequent downturn will just speed up the process of FF FG Greens demise.

The problem for the last 2-3 years (when we had the money) is that Commercial building was in full swing. Demand for building materials and workers was at full capacity. it would have been crazy to add fuel (just like in the noughties adding tax incentives for holiday homes, student apartments and housing in smaller town area's) to a fire. Builders were demanding all sort of tax incentives and relaxation of mortgages rule to build house. The government over the last 2-3 years refused as adding incentives would have increased costs in a sector that was already heated up.

However now if we enter a downturn and if commercial building slows down( and i expect it will) the government is positioned to start a building program. Just as an example say it decided to build 10K social and affordable houses a year on land it already owned in Dublin. First it has changed planning law to fast track such developments and can get them going within 12-18 months. Next is cost give that it costs 200k/house to build and provide services(roads, water sewerage electricity and communications) to these houses. Total cost 2 billion. However it will get 50% of that back in vat and ancillary economic activity.

It a win win to do it in a downturn it in a downturn. it will also reduce building costs to those house owners that are not reliant on the sate as it will give those on the borrowing borderline a choice to take affordable housing or buying off a private builder

Renjit

neutral guy wrote: »

First hit to rental market.About 110K people will get Covid payment reduced from 350 to 203

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-to-avoid-cliff-edge-on-covid-19-payment-changes-1.4296769

This was already decided earlier
https://www.gov.ie/en/service/be74d3-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-payment/

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

First hit to rental market.About 110K people will get Covid payment reduced from 350 to 203

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-to-avoid-cliff-edge-on-covid-19-payment-changes-1.4296769

How do you figure that out? If you read the article the reduction in payment applies to workers who were earning less than 350.

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

How do you figure that out? If you read the article the reduction in payment applies to workers who were earning less than 350.

The person who work less than 19.5 hours per week ,up to 3 days per week getting social welfare support which brings his incomes to approx minimal wage per week.Losing jobs and getting Covid payment they lost social wefare support payment.The persons who worked that type of jobs usually worked in worse hit industries as shops/hotels/restaraunts/etc and are lost them jobs already.Bringing them payment down the government reduce them facilities pay rent and force many of them leave the country.

Bass Reeves

neutral guy wrote: »

The person who work less than 19.5 hours per week ,up to 3 days per week getting social welfare support which brings his incomes to approx minimal wage per week.Losing jobs and getting Covid payment they lost social wefare support payment.The persons who worked that type of jobs usually worked in worse hit industries as shops/hotels/restaraunts/etc and are lost them jobs already.Bringing them payment down the government reduce them facilities pay rent and force many of them leave the country.

The guys that work three day week and are getting SW are usually the last to leave the country. Most part time workers in shops, retaurants and hotels are students they are staying finishing there cource. Any that are working part time in this situation if they have a family are getting housing assistant payments they are going nowhere.

By the wayvery few will be leaving he country remember COVID there is nowhere to f@@King go

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

The person who work less than 19.5 hours per week ,up to 3 days per week getting social welfare support which brings his incomes to approx minimal wage per week.Losing jobs and getting Covid payment they lost social wefare support payment.The persons who worked that type of jobs usually worked in worse hit industries as shops/hotels/restaraunts/etc and are lost them jobs already.Bringing them payment down the government reduce them facilities pay rent and force many of them leave the country.

Sorry but I don’t understand what you are saying. They earn more on Covid payment than when they were working. So if it is reduced they are then earning the same as pre Covid?

neutral guy

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The guys that work three day week and are getting SW are usually the last to leave the country. Most part time workers in shops, retaurants and hotels are students they are staying finishing there cource. Any that are working part time in this situation if they have a family are getting housing assistant payments they are going nowhere.

By the wayvery few will be leaving he country remember COVID there is nowhere to f@@King go

During last financial crisis there was also nowhere to go.Lets see what will happens next.

neutral guy

Tens of thousands of people face a difficult time ahead and many face losing their home.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/mortgage-arrears-prevention-is-definitely-better-than-cure-1.4295388

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

During last financial crisis there was also nowhere to go.Lets see what will happens next.

You’re wrong. Over 300k people emigrated. Canada New Zealand Australia etc...

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

.....

Is it not too much to ask to avoid having children being in homeless situation. The fact that the numbers of children classed as homeless has grown is yet another monumental failure

That's the waster crisis being confused with a housing crisis, for the mostpart.

kippy

neutral guy wrote: »

During last financial crisis there was also nowhere to go.Lets see what will happens next.

There were plenty places to go, many people who left are still there and may never come home.

Covid is a different animal, affecting every country.

Bass Reeves

kippy wrote: »

There were plenty places to go, many people who left are still there and may never come home.

Covid is a different animal, affecting every country.

And two of the three placed listed are not allowing anybody in at present and this is unlikely to change for 12-18 months

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

Whose responsibility is it to ensure children have a roof over their head ? Personally I’ll make sure mine do I won’t be looking for someone else to do it. Nor would I have had kids if I didn’t have the means to care for them .

That's very admirable of you and I'm sure the vast majority of people would aim to achieve the same.

I'm baffled that a government would implement policy contributing to soaring House prices resulting in affordability being out of reach for so many workers who are essential to the smooth running of the economy.

Government in a democracy are supposed to act in the best interests of its people

Who do you think is most responsible for children being homeless? Parents or the housing market as influenced by Government policy

JimmyVik

Darc19 wrote: »

And at 6pm after an hour in traffic and still not past Rathcoole, that smile will be gone.

And that's why people pay a premium for living in a city.

My life every day for the past 20 years.
Apart from since the Coronavirus.

JimmyVik

lastusername wrote: »

For all the reasons I mentioned! I think housing is in a bubble of its own to an extent, largely unaffected by the rest of the economy.

Think about it - if say 5000 people in an area are looking to buy in the 400-500k range, and 30% of them are no longer in a position to buy due to Covid, that still leaves 70% of them still looking and still ready to buy...

I think a significant increase in supply, where there isn't such demand for nice houses in nice areas, is the only thing that will really bring prices down over time. And in the meantime, waiting for those drops means more money spent living in someone else's place, paying money you'll never get any return on.

That 30% may still be able to buy at €300k - 400K though.
So now you still have your 70% in the 400k-500k market.
And an extra 30% in the 300k-400k market.
And so on down the levels.

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

.........

Who do you think is most responsible for children being homeless? Parents or the housing market as influenced by Government policy

Must be the gubernment :rolleyes:

JimmyVik

neutral guy wrote: »

When 200K left will be invested in renting property which will cover my travel/car expenses/kidz education and will be my pension on end of the days I will still smiling even in traffic !

You wont be smiling if you are a landlord these days
I have done extensive research on just that over the last few years and I would never become one in Ireland.

neutral guy

neutral guy wrote: »

When 200K left will be invested in renting property which will cover my travel/car expenses/kidz education and will be my pension on end of the days I will still smiling even in traffic !

200k invested in rental property to provide education and a pension?
High hopes for an undiversified and small pot.

farmerval

The people that will get the covid payment reduction are people that were earning less before the shutdown.
I know several people with part time work, students getting one or two shifts a week and the covid payment was a lot more than they were getting in work.
I think one of the big issues with housing has been the rise in rental demand from increased numbers living here. The upward push has left the social welfare end of the market with nowhere to go.
With virtually no construction from 2008 to 2020 all the available capacity i gone out of the market.
I live in a rural area and the large towns close to me are all the same, very few new builds, almost zero availability. Recently I have noticed a few buildings started and abandoned in 2008 approx. only being finished now.
Every single type of accommodation is too scarce right now. The people on this thread talking about demand for houses in the 400-500K range in Dublin.
The purchasers of these homes, will they have to both work for thirty years to pay for them?