Share Picks 2020

all about the mane

Lex Luthor wrote: »

I wouldn’t get carried away, this won’t last long

We’ll see. Most positions stop loss are at break even now anyway so I can enjoy the ride

Lex Luthor

the market being green at the moment could be a false breakout to trick people into buying in before it dumps hard on them

all about the mane

Lex Luthor wrote: »

the market being green at the moment could be a false breakout to trick people into buying in before it dumps hard on them

Could well be. Important to set up trades with a decent r/r to account for losses. Always have to have an edge

all about the mane

Just opened a position in ryanair. Risky but lets see what happens.

championc

all about the mane wrote: »

Just opened a position in ryanair. Risky but lets see what happens.

I think it'll crash as Easter travel gets absolutely hammered. Many people will have bought seats already for March and may choose not to travel, but the seats are paid for, but many people would be booking now for Easter.

I personally think that Italy are lying about their numbers. How can some many people all over Europe have been affected by travelling to northern Italy, with only 3000 infected ? Makes no sense - the place must be riddled. I can only think that they are trying to protect their tourism

Lex Luthor

championc wrote: »

I think it'll crash as Easter travel gets absolutely hammered. Many people will have bought seats already for March and may choose not to travel, but the seats are paid for, but many people would be booking now for Easter.

I personally think that Italy are lying about their numbers. How can some many people all over Europe have been affected by travelling to northern Italy, with only 3000 infected ? Makes no sense - the place must be riddled. I can only think that they are trying to protect their tourism

Every school in the country and 3rd level are closed for at least 2 weeks

What does that tell you

championc

championc wrote: »

I think it'll crash as Easter travel gets absolutely hammered. Many people will have bought seats already for March and may choose not to travel, but the seats are paid for, but many people would be booking now for Easter.

I personally think that Italy are lying about their numbers. How can some many people all over Europe have been affected by travelling to northern Italy, with only 3000 infected ? Makes no sense - the place must be riddled. I can only think that they are trying to protect their tourism

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-03-03/ryanair-ceo-o-leary-on-coronavirus-impact-boeing-s-737-max-jet-video

Easter bookings looking OK so far but will naturally probably be softer. It seems like it is already priced in.

Wombatman

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-03-03/ryanair-ceo-o-leary-on-coronavirus-impact-boeing-s-737-max-jet-video

Easter bookings looking OK so far but will naturally probably be softer. It seems like it is already priced in.

Not sure the level of hysteria and panic we are going to see over the next week is priced in anywhere. Sentiment drives the markets.

all about the mane

Wombatman wrote: »

Not sure the level of hysteria and panic we are going to see over the next week is priced in anywhere. Sentiment drives the markets.

Why do you think there will be an increase this particular week?

greenfield21

Stating the obvious but short term is going to be very messy. Can't see any light on the horizon.

all about the mane

greenfield21 wrote: »

Stating the obvious but short term is going to be very messy. Can't see any light on the horizon.

China seem to be coming out the other end.

antimatterx

Waiting for Airlines to really sink before I invest in Delta

The Phantom Jipper

antimatterx wrote: »

Waiting for Airlines to really sink before I invest in Delta

Out of curiosity, what kind of price would you be looking at before you'd make a move?

antimatterx

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what kind of price would you be looking at before you'd make a move?

I see another 15 - 20% dropping from travel companies stocks. I work as a software engineer for a company that provides car rental software and we're seeing a real drop in bookings as a result of this Corona virus. There's real fear in the company!!

q85dw7osi4lebg

US 10 YR is 0.79% this morning, make of that what you will.

q85dw7osi4lebg

*0.77%

q85dw7osi4lebg

.70 WTF! Big day ahead.

onrail

Caiden Immense Porterhouse wrote: »

.70 WTF! Big day ahead.

Could we get an explainer for the significance?

cefh17

onrail wrote: »

Could we get an explainer for the significance?

Those 10 year bonds are an indication of market sentiment, the fact that the rates offered are as low as they are and further dropping shows that they're offering lower returns for a long term guarantee (aka, risky short term). When the rates long term (10yr) are shorter than the (3mo/1yr) rates then it is one sign of a likely recession. My basic understanding of it anyhow...

q85dw7osi4lebg

An explainer: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100814/why-10-year-us-treasury-rates-matter.asp

Shedite27

onrail wrote: »

Could we get an explainer for the significance?

My understanding is:
- yields going lower means more investors are trying to buy bonds (willing to take 0.7% return over 10 years than play the market).
- leaves less money for shares so share prices aren't going to recover today as they have after drops over the past few weeks

Wombatman

all about the mane wrote: »

Just opened a position in ryanair. Risky but lets see what happens.

Down almost 10% in the last couple of days. Could be more to go. Should be big value there when the time is right. When that is is the big question.

Jim2007

cefh17 wrote: »

Those 10 year bonds are an indication of market sentiment, the fact that the rates offered are as low as they are and further dropping shows that they're offering lower returns for a long term guarantee (aka, risky short term). When the rates long term (10yr) are shorter than the (3mo/1yr) rates then it is one sign of a likely recession. My basic understanding of it anyhow...

Then again it could just be a question of supply and demand... there is a massive cash surplus looking for a return, so most of the old analysis is unless and was questionable even back then...

Recessions typically follow a seven or eight year cycle and rates are just as likely to reflect people’s expectations as anything else.

timetogo1

I'm turning into a currency speculator these days too.
Was wondering why there was a big drop this morning and the markets aren't open. US Dollar vs the Euro is taking a hammering today. So my US stock is devaluing away.
1Euro was $1.11 yesterday. Today it's $1.13. So nearly a 2% drop.

themossinator

massive flight to safety in bonds recently

Supercell

Bought some LADR for its dividend today.
I reckon BA was at serious bargain levels earlier today, didn't have any cash left to deploy myself though. I reckon once the Max does fly BA is going to be north of $400 again rapidly. So while I'm down a bit on it I'm happy enough to bide my time.
I bet Buffet is licking his chops at the moment.

retalivity

Ftse 100 closed at lowest level since 2016 the weekend may provide some respite...but probably more of the same next week

pearcider

Shedite27 wrote: »

My understanding is:
- yields going lower means more investors are trying to buy bonds (willing to take 0.7% return over 10 years than play the market).
- leaves less money for shares so share prices aren't going to recover today as they have after drops over the past few weeks

Oil and bonds are predicting the same thing. Huge global recession. Considering the central banks are going to print into oblivion as deflation will destroy them and their huge debts I’d say you need you need a portfolio to defend against inflation.

So invest in businesses that can raise their prices easily due to inelastic demand and that generate cash. Oil and energy in general is in the gutter at multi decade lows so that will be my play when the time comes.

Lex Luthor

If everyone is self isolated Netflix is gonna up their subs big time

greenfield21

Cheap fuel, low rates, more stimulus, companies with no stock you would think if it blows over we are ready for lift of that's if companies can get through it soon.