Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

pad199207

Jean Byrne saying that a high probability that Lorenzo will come close to or over Ireland

pauldry

Maybe its a very near miss though 130kph in Sligo no laughing matter. Only one tree now stands in my back garden after Eleanor Barney but not Ophelia. That didnt affect Sligo.

Delta2113

sdanseo wrote: »

I wouldn't say never. This will be the second cyclone in as many years to hit or come close to Ireland as a very-recently transitioned extratropical storm. Ophelia was classified as a hurricane as close as 500km from Ireland - only 300nm.

Temperatures are rising - we'll leave the debate about why at the door but with rising temperatures will come more intense storms and when they wander east, we tend to be first in line.

- Fair enough -100 or 200 years from now???

Gaoth Laidir

amandstu wrote: »

Is this "ex-hurricane " mullarkey getting a bit too frequent and close for comfort?

Might this get worse over the next few years as temperatures at sea increase further?

When was the last actual hurricane in Ireland? (I realize this one won't be but maybe in a few years...?)

Never. Debbie in 1961 was not a hurricane when it reached us. It had transitioned.

It's impossible for us to get one.

Donegal Storm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Watching the bbc forecast they don't seem anyway concerned by this other than a risk of some wind and rain. You would think they would share a concern for Northern Ireland.....
Has it been over hyped.....possibly.
A couple of points worth making.
1) The main rainbelts stay offshore so the ppn from this looks minimal.
2) No matter what route the storm takes it dies off exceptionally quickly.

Well in fairness what else is it going to be? I've experienced countless storms in Ireland and 95% of them amount to sunshine and showers with stronger than normal wind and an hour or two of more severe gusts.

The main danger this time of year will obviously be trees falling and depending on when it hits there could be coastal flooding with high tides at the moment

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Never. Debbie in 1961 was not a hurricane when it reached us. It had transitioned.

It's impossible for us to get one.

I'd say it's at least questionable. I wonder what the official NHC designation would have been by modern analysis. It had 10min mean speeds of 66kt at Malin Head.

https://web.archive.org/web/20131112040048/http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Sep1961_hurricane-Debbie.pdf

While true hurricanes are technically not found at latitudes as high as Ireland, Debbie retained many hurricane characteristics when it arrived off the
southwest coast.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)#/media/File:Debbie_1961_track.png

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Any chance of a red alert ha?

sdanseo

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Any chance of a red alert ha?

Probably not. But there certainly is for the Azores:

Wind - Red [ 02 Oct 00:00 - 02 Oct 12:00 ]
Direction from southeast to west with a maximum gust of 190 km / h (40% probability greater than 200 km / h).

https://www.ipma.pt/en/otempo/prev-sam/?p=AOC

JanuarySnowstor

18z jma is just rolling and it gives a direct hit for Ireland - similar to other models as in up the West coast and then turning sharply right like the euros

Kermit.de.frog

Certainly the potential for major refurbishment and a good scrub for Galway alright.

Still some ups and downs to come yet though the path is narrowing.

JCX BXC

Certainly looking interesting for Galway. Keeping a close eye on it now!

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z arpege seems stuck at 60hrs but that also has nudged the system closer to Ireland when comparing to its own earlier run. So if you ignore the gfs the majority are nudging closer to a sharp turn right and across the country. Folk asking would it be red warning? It's on the main news 3 days out its pretty obvious that if it hit directly a red would be issued for the worst areas. Anyway let's see what tomorrow brings

JanuarySnowstor

One last comment from me. The system is speeding up so landfall Thursday day time more likely than late at night which of course will cause extra problems for Met Eireann and any warnings they may issue

aidanodr

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1178804942703869958

https://twitter.com/gwccwx/status/1178822000783044610

Drumpot

Google maps gives you its own course prediction if you just google hurricane Lorenzo Ireland

sdanseo

Latest NHC Update. The rhetoric is a little more worrying for Ireland (emphasis bold, scroll to the end).

Note the image is the 50kt probability which I chose based on the final fix windspeed estimate.

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours
on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large
cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain
near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial
wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer
data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses.

The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at
about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast
during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude
trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the
hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of
Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much
better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to
Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over
western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and
is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions.

Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone
moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition
should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model
agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time.
Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and
the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is
deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly
already onshore.

It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on
the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to
the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days.
Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an
amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called
trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can
be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents,
especially across the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 32.0N 41.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

Graces7

Leila Eager Blowgun wrote: »

12 KM as the crows flies to the western seaboard and sittting on a mountain just to add to the potential fun.


I'm very happy for this to veer off to the west somewhere in the Atlantic:eek:

:eek:

Yes; I share your thoughts. I lived atop a mountain near Blackwater in Kerry for years. One storm moved my satellite dish and felled a tree across the private lane so I was stranded and without communications for three days until my emergency alert clicked in.. Here is even more... interesting.. the ocean is literally a small field away to the north.

Just sent my shopping list off by email with a proviso that I know we will be cut off and assuring I have abundant supplies in. Hoping you are well stocked. stay safe..

JanuarySnowstor

The ukmo and gfs agree this morning that the low will come close to the Northwest and then move East over Northern coastal areas. Ireland has dodged a bullet going by these 2

JanuarySnowstor

Arpege also in agreement well West and skirting the North coast while fading. Nothing much to see here guys away from the Northwest

ninebeanrows

Yea good consensus

Nothing too serious for Ireland, windy in NW

sdanseo

Not convinced until I see ECM
NHC had the dog leg evolution and made a point of changing it. There has to be a reason why.
Or maybe I'm just paranoid about missing flight on Thursday :pac:

dacogawa

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Yea good consensus

Nothing too serious for Ireland, windy in NW

After the unprecedented model disagreement and changes over the past 48 hours I would like to see the charts that you have made that statement from?

If Met.ie say it's a pass in the morning you win! But I would think they are not going to make a statement along the lines of "nothing to serious" tomorrow in the am...

DOCARCH

NHC has storm centre just off north Mayo coast 8am on Thursday.

dacogawa

Graces7 wrote: »

:eek:

Yes; I share your thoughts. I lived atop a mountain near Blackwater in Kerry for years. One storm moved my satellite dish and felled a tree across the private lane so I was stranded and without communications for three days until my emergency alert clicked in.. Here is even more... interesting.. the ocean is literally a small field away to the north.

Just sent my shopping list off by email with a proviso that I know we will be cut off and assuring I have abundant supplies in. Hoping you are well stocked. stay safe..

Keep Safe Graces7, the charts at the moment seem to want to meet you but you've seen out a lot worse than this!

Graces7

sdanseo wrote: »

Not convinced until I see ECM
NHC had the dog leg evolution and made a point of changing it. There has to be a reason why.
Or maybe I'm just paranoid about missing flight on Thursday :pac:

A good reason! I have given up re my fortnightly grocery order! Emailed my list to the shop with a note than whenever will do and I am well stocked anyways so worry not if they cannot work it! Do not want others worried.

It will in fact hardly affect my meals etc as I am well stocked. Decades of remote living

Good luck with the flight though!

Graces7

dacogawa wrote: »

Keep Safe Graces7, the charts at the moment seem to want to meet you but you've seen out a lot worse than this!

Thanks, and yes, Lorenzo is a pushy one!

My first storm on the island I made a bad error. Opened the door. Gale grabbed the door , severed the safety hinge spring, with me attached, slammed it back against the wall, in a split second , and flung me across the concrete path. I was very lucky indeed not to hit the wall at speed head first. All I got was a long graze on my leg. I had the dog then and she stood there and stared at me!

Even stoic islanders were horrified. Takes a lot to shock them

Blocked off the door then at the back firmly , with a huge heavy container, It taught me to utterly respect the gales. I tie the door handle to a grab rail inside and only open it to let cats in and out.

We need to respect these storms utterly. Clear loose things outside. Avoid actual danger. You cannot argue with a storm. Life is too precious. Thrill seekers make me wince ..

All I have to do now is get turf in from the stack …

Pangea

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The ukmo and gfs agree this morning that the low will come close to the Northwest and then move East over Northern coastal areas. Ireland has dodged a bullet going by these 2

The North West is Ireland too.

pauldry

The gfs also has storm much smaller than it was before.

Northwest may get wind gusts of 120kph but the rest a lot less maybe 70 to 90kph, maybe 100kph for Mace hd and Belmullet

Expect a yellow warning approaching orange for Northwest

Gaoth Laidir

This article describes why Debbie was not tropical when it hit Ireland.

https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/blast-from-the-past-hurricane-debbie-1961/

Latest NHC forecast. Extratropical off Belmullet at 1 am Friday, with intensity 50 knots (~45 knots 10-minute) and the whole country within the 34 (~30) knot radius.

JanuarySnowstor

It's hard to see with the larger timeframe gaps but the ecm and ukmo both send the storm through Ireland and over towards UK as a dying feature. The gfs doesn't. Still uncertainty I suppose after seeing ecm