sdanseo wrote: » I wouldn't say never. This will be the second cyclone in as many years to hit or come close to Ireland as a very-recently transitioned extratropical storm. Ophelia was classified as a hurricane as close as 500km from Ireland - only 300nm. Temperatures are rising - we'll leave the debate about why at the door but with rising temperatures will come more intense storms and when they wander east, we tend to be first in line.
amandstu wrote: » Is this "ex-hurricane " mullarkey getting a bit too frequent and close for comfort? Might this get worse over the next few years as temperatures at sea increase further? When was the last actual hurricane in Ireland? (I realize this one won't be but maybe in a few years...?)
JanuarySnowstor wrote: » Watching the bbc forecast they don't seem anyway concerned by this other than a risk of some wind and rain. You would think they would share a concern for Northern Ireland..... Has it been over hyped.....possibly. A couple of points worth making. 1) The main rainbelts stay offshore so the ppn from this looks minimal. 2) No matter what route the storm takes it dies off exceptionally quickly.
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » Never. Debbie in 1961 was not a hurricane when it reached us. It had transitioned. It's impossible for us to get one.
https://web.archive.org/web/20131112040048/http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Sep1961_hurricane-Debbie.pdf While true hurricanes are technically not found at latitudes as high as Ireland, Debbie retained many hurricane characteristics when it arrived off the southwest coast.
Pheonix10 wrote: » Any chance of a red alert ha?
Wind - Red [ 02 Oct 00:00 - 02 Oct 12:00 ] Direction from southeast to west with a maximum gust of 190 km / h (40% probability greater than 200 km / h).
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses. The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions. Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time. Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly already onshore.It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days. Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web athttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 32.0N 41.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Leila Eager Blowgun wrote: » 12 KM as the crows flies to the western seaboard and sittting on a mountain just to add to the potential fun. I'm very happy for this to veer off to the west somewhere in the Atlantic:eek:
Sleety_Rain wrote: » Yea good consensus Nothing too serious for Ireland, windy in NW
Graces7 wrote: » :eek: Yes; I share your thoughts. I lived atop a mountain near Blackwater in Kerry for years. One storm moved my satellite dish and felled a tree across the private lane so I was stranded and without communications for three days until my emergency alert clicked in.. Here is even more... interesting.. the ocean is literally a small field away to the north. Just sent my shopping list off by email with a proviso that I know we will be cut off and assuring I have abundant supplies in. Hoping you are well stocked. stay safe..
sdanseo wrote: » Not convinced until I see ECM NHC had the dog leg evolution and made a point of changing it. There has to be a reason why. Or maybe I'm just paranoid about missing flight on Thursday :pac:
dacogawa wrote: » Keep Safe Graces7, the charts at the moment seem to want to meet you but you've seen out a lot worse than this!
JanuarySnowstor wrote: » The ukmo and gfs agree this morning that the low will come close to the Northwest and then move East over Northern coastal areas. Ireland has dodged a bullet going by these 2
