Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

Surely the opposition should hold off on an election for as long as possible, and try and engineer a 2nd ref, as it will be the only way to get Brexit stopped.

[Well they could always pass a Revoke Art 50 motion if they have the numbers, but they think that would not be a good idea!]

They could try and attach an amendment to the deal for a second referendum on whether to accept it or not. I mean for Labour MPs the worst case scenario is this deal passes, now or later. If they vote for it, it passes now. If they reject, there is an election and at worst is passes in the future. At best they get a shot at their won deal or Remain. I see no incentive to vote for the deal for Labour.

As for Johnson, he may be as good a negotiator as Trump,

https://twitter.com/jnpowell1/status/1184776605308276736?s=20

Headshot

This is going to be an unreal Saturday. I just cannot wait. This is going to make up for the ****e GOT final season.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Just heard from Corbyn. They won't support it.
Jesus. How on Earth is he still leader when you listen to him waffle on.

Joe_ Public

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Just heard from Corbyn. They won't support it.
Jesus. How on Earth is he still leader when you listen to him waffle on.

On what basis should he support it?

raclle

Inquitus wrote: »

If they reject this deal, the Benn Act comes into play and an extension must be requested.

Just about to mention this. How many more extensions are they allowed?

Varta

Sam Russell wrote: »

Surely the opposition should hold off on an election for as long as possible, and try and engineer a 2nd ref, as it will be the only way to get Brexit stopped.

[Well they could always pass a Revoke Art 50 motion if they have the numbers, but they think that would not be a good idea!]

That presumes that the entire opposition is opposed to Brexit, which is not the case. Many Labour MPs are from staunch Brexit constituencies.

Varta

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Caught a sound of her asking Barnier just now "......is this the final deal the EU are prepared to offer?" should it not progress through the UK parliament. He began his response by saying to stop asking him to answer questions about hypothetical situations which have not occurred. All in a very cordial tone and he went on to elaborate more but the feeling was there.

His English is better than hers and he was annoyed with her for using 'are' instead of 'is'. ;-)

farmchoice

Varta wrote: »

That presumes that the entire opposition is opposed to Brexit, which is not the case. Many Labour MPs are from staunch Brexit constituencies.

there are a number of labour mp's who will probably vote for this deal but there are probably as many ex tory mp's who will vote against.
if the dup dont vote for it a number of erg members will also vote against it.
chances are it will lose by approx 30 votes

Joe_ Public

If they go 2nd ref route they're basically ensuring Johnson stays in power for next 5-6 months at a minimum. It's one disincentive against it.

jimmycrackcorm

mcmoustache wrote: »

Did Johnson cause a load of fuss over the last few months just to accept a worse deal than May's WA?

Some of the posts here confuse me by indicating that this is a worse deal. But the saying beauty is in the eye of the beholder applies.

The cat is out of the bag and the UK is going to leave. Its gone to far down the road and is blindly polarised that there's no turning back. The English are n'itchen and now need a scratchen.

So this deal makes it crystal clear that brexit is an English Brexit. From that perspective its a better deal as it gets England out of the EU, solves the NI issue and is way better than no deal.

So this is the best deal that they can get from their perspective. Regardless of whether or not parliment passes this or we go to another extension, this is the deal that will finalise it.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Joe_ Public wrote: »

On what basis should he support it?

No saying he should.
But he's a terrible Labor leader.

ninebeanrows

Boris knows he would win large majority if goes to people having this deal as would attract the crucial middle ground.

Enzokk

Varta wrote: »

That presumes that the entire opposition is opposed to Brexit, which is not the case. Many Labour MPs are from staunch Brexit constituencies.

Didn't stop then from voting against May's deal 3 times though. Only 5 Labour MPs supported her deal the last time and this deal is worse than her deal. The level playing field has been moved from the Withdrawal Agreement to the PD, so if a Labour MP supports this deal over her deal they are mad.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

If they go 2nd ref route they're basically ensuring Johnson stays in power for next 5-6 months at a minimum. It's one disincentive against it.

He has no majority, what can he possibly do in those 5-6 months?

Hurrache

Seems like the backstop has changed slightly and is no longer what it used to be. The ERG and others main sticking point, or so they claimed, was with the backstop. So when push comes to shove on Saturday, based on their own arguments, they shouldn't be voting against this on the basis that the backstop is antidemocratic.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

He has no majority, what can he possibly do in those 5-6 months?

He can't do much which is the issue. Long time to have a crippled administration in place but perhaps a price worth paying. Not sure about it.

Tea Shock

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So is boris resigned to losing the HOC vote? I mean, on face value, Arlene and co are saying no. So he can’t get it through.

What’s his motive?

I wouldn’t even be surprised if the DUP rowing in against the deal is all part of a stage managed bulshyte parade

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

Seems like the backstop has changed slightly and is no longer what it used to be The ERG and others main sticking point, or so they claimed, was with the backstop. So when push comes to shove on Saturday, based on their own arguments, they shouldn't be voting against this on the basis that the backstop is antidemocratic.

It seems like the backstop changed from maybe coming into force if no arrangements are there to replace it to being permanent whatever the other arrangement are.

Varta

farmchoice wrote: »

there are a number of labour mp's who will probably vote for this deal but there are probably as many ex tory mp's who will vote against.
if the dup dont vote for it a number of erg members will also vote against it.
chances are it will lose by approx 30 votes

I think there are far more pro-Brexit Labour MPs than are being counted. They are between a rock and a hard place: vote with their heart/constituency and lose the Labour nomination next election or vote against their constituency and lose anyway. That makes it very difficult to predict which way they will go. As I said many months ago, the UK is now like a gangrenous limb attached to the EU, and although Brexit is possibly the worst political decision in recent history, they simply have to go.

tanko

The UK still have to pay the £39 billion to the EU as part of the divorce bill and continue to pay into the EU coffers during the transition period.

Hurrache

Tea Shock wrote: »

I wouldn’t even be surprised if the DUP rowing in against the deal is all part of a stage managed bulshyte parade

I don't think so. Consensus seems to be that they were "thrown a dummy and ran with it", and were misdirected in the briefings with the UK gov.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1184782001666174977
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1184781030370238464

Joe_ Public

The Labour leavers have consistently said they'd back a deal that included the concessions suggested in the cross party talks last march/April so they would be seriously compromisising themselves if they caved now.

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

That ship has sailed a long time ago. There will need to be a extension, whatever happens. I think that much is clear and he is probably hoping by getting a deal done and agreed by parliament would negate the damage a little of that extension. But his pronouncements will be hurting him on this with the Brexit Party.


As for the negotiations, this is a interesting thread.

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1184707928126869504?s=20

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1184707931708821510?s=20

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1184707937396314113?s=20

So the EU has moved on the immovable lines, where it was said they wouldn't move or compromise further. But this is a good thing as the EU isn't always right and in a negotiation there has to be give on both parties. If the EU was really this EU superstate it wouldn't have been able to move in the first place so this is actually a good thing, even if we don't get all that we wanted.

The main positives for the EU are,

It’s equally true that the EU has:
☑️Succeeded in protecting the open border in Ireland
☑️Remained united
☑️Showed small states they have considerable power through pooled sovereignty
☑️Stuck to its red lines on cherry picking

So while there will be some unhappiness on the ground we gave, there was always going to need to be some give and take to get a deal and in the end we wanted to avoid no-deal as much as possible.

It is a signal of how strong your position is that the fact that you were willing to make a concession, not the substance of that concession, is the talking point and is in itself seen as being a major victory for your opponent.

It seems to me the EU were correct to take a hardline stance early on in this latest round so that pragmatic flexibility later could be sold as a major concession.

Brexiteers get to say I told you so on the EU doing deals at the last minute, and in so doing can obscure the reality that the substance of the EUs concessions was far from anything the Brexiteers really wanted.

FrancieBrady

All we need now is for another EU country to object to this deal.

strawdog

Enzokk wrote: »

His problem now is this deal will be his to take into a new election. This will be it, he will have to fight a election not on unicorns but on what he has negotiated, which will contain enough ammunition for Farage and Labour I think. He is still in a corner, only he seems to have dumped the DUP and lost MP's to the Lib Dems as well so not going for an election is not possible as he doesn't have a majority.

He seems to have moved from one corner to another.

I think as mentioned by someone he, like May, stared in to the No Deal Abyss and realised he wasn't going to be the one putting his name to it. Even if No Deal happens he can say he really did try the alternative. If the pro-brexit British public can be sold on this being the best available deal, I think he could get a mandate on the 'just get it done' basis. If it doesn't pass and its No Deal, well they'll get what they deserve. I say that for both extremes as Revoke is as much of a unicorn as any on the other side.

Mr.Nice Guy

Not surprised the DUP haven't gone for it. Normally I'd be encouraged by their grumbling but this consent mechanism doesn't look great for NI overall. I find it frustrating the two sides didn't go further on this to make it more watertight, seeing as the DUP were never likely to go for this anyway.

Rjd2

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Boris knows he would win large majority if goes to people having this deal as would attract the crucial middle ground.

If he was to get a deal through he would win a majority next election.

However the numbers simply are not their, I can't see more than a handful Labour MPS like Skinner, Hoey and Flint backing it and I would put no money on all those Tories who lost the whip voting for it.

The DUP been on the fence is the last nail in the coffin for him.

farmchoice

Varta wrote: »

I think there are far more pro-Brexit Labour MPs than are being counted. They are between a rock and a hard place: vote with their heart/constituency and lose the Labour nomination next election or vote against their constituency and lose anyway. That makes it very difficult to predict which way they will go. As I said many months ago, the UK is now like a gangrenous limb attached to the EU, and although Brexit is possibly the worst political decision in recent history, they simply have to go.

well if there are only a handful (3) of them voted for the last brexit deal so unless another 12/15 at least are now going to appear it make no difference

BarryD2

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Not this shyte again.

Yes this shyte again, because it's abundantly clear that representative politics in NI is an abject failure for the ordinary citizens up there. On the one hand, SF get voted in and won't take their seats either in Stormont or Westminster. They sit on the sidelines and lecture the Republic on our responsibilities to nationalists. On the other, the DUP have their heads shoved so far up their constitutional arses, they can't even envisage representing the economic interests of their own people. It's dysfunctional on both sides.

All we hope for is that voting public on all sides in NI take the opportunity at forthcoming elections to vote for parties and people who will work on their behalf and who will build bridges between the communities, instead of blowing them up.

jm08

Bambi wrote: »

Bertie qualifies as both deluded and disingenuous

He is still one of the most knowledgeble people of the GFA.

We're going to put the existence of one of the main principles of the Good Friday Agreement in the hands of Stormont and Stormont alone. Without requiring the consent of the British or Irish Governments or the people of Ireland, North and South, Stormont could put a hard border on this Island.

All on the basis of "Shur, what are the chances of it actually happening.

Isn't that what we signed up to in the GFA?

dancingwith

Beth Rigby
(@BethRigby)
NEW: Am told by govt source that Johnson will tell EU leaders that it’s this deal or no deal - but no delays.
He will not ask for a extension and will not accept one if offered

:pac: