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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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RickBlaine

I wonder will someone on Saturday put forward an amendment to make the deal subject to a confirmatory referendum and force the PM to request an extension for that purpose.

I can see the EU agreeing to that, and I can also see the deal passing the HoC provided the decision goes back to the people.

[Deleted User]

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So is boris resigned to losing the HOC vote? I mean, on face value, Arlene and co are saying no. So he can’t get it through.

What’s his motive?

Is it this black and white? Would it be that much of a shock for some of the opposition to vote in favour? Wouldn't have thought so tbh

ancapailldorcha

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So is boris resigned to losing the HOC vote? I mean, on face value, Arlene and co are saying no. So he can’t get it through.

What’s his motive?

If he can get it through, it means he can claim to have delivered Brexit and will give him an edge in a GE as the other parties won't be able to use the People's Vote to win over voters. As for the Brexit party, they'll just wither and die with their goal accomplished.

Hurrache

Coming in thick and fast against the DUP.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1184766242458161152
https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1184767786020724736

devnull

Deal text published here:

Revised withdrawal agreement including protocol on Northern Ireland
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/revised_withdrawal_agreement_including_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf

Happy reading

Kermit.de.frog

This is the general take across twitter on the deal from what I am seeing. The DUP have been essentially betrayed.

https://twitter.com/PeterRNeumann/status/1184776443605278721

It's understandable they won't accept it from their perspective.

LuckyLloyd

So much focus on the DUP. They have been given lengthy consideration and Johnson and the EU have decided to compromise without their assent. The DUP are now irrelevant.

As an ardent Republican who has become a huge fan of the EU as this process has developed I think this is a good deal for Ireland and the EU. Yes, we have redrawn the 2017 backstop slightly but compromise is the foundation of successful democratic politics. This deal retains the integrity of the common market; keeps border infrastructure off the island of Ireland and will only reintroduce such a border should it become the majority will of NI as expressed through functioning politics in the North.

We didn’t get all we wanted, but I say fair play to Varadkar, Coveney, Barnier et al for finding a landing zone for the UK. They have moved substantively and thrown the DUP under the bus to reach an agreement.

The EU comes across as a credible reasonable stable entity. The pressure is firmly on Brexiteers on either side of the commons. This may be your last chance at a hard Brexit, if that is what you want.

Larbre34

This is being orchestrated to tantilise the ERG. This is the very best deal one of their own can get, it is within touching distance and will they let the DUP stand in their way.

If I were Gammy Wilson I would stay well away from any bus lanes for a whileen.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is the general take across twitter on the deal from what I am seeing. The DUP have been essentially betrayed.

https://twitter.com/PeterRNeumann/status/1184776443605278721

It's understandable they won't accept it from their perspective.

It may be a sign that it's a good deal, because other's have said that it will forever leave NI as part of the UK.

ToBeFrank123

munstermagic11 wrote: »

DUP will not back this deal, it's an Irish Sea border.
It'll be rejected in the UK Parliament, Boris to ask for an extension (weasel his words to ensure it's not a backtrack on his promise), election called, Boris to tell the country to back him to get this deal done, DUP no longer required in Government; Brexit done.
Corbyn a sham, gone after the election.

At this stage probably the most likely outcome, but only if Labour allow an election and it would be madness for them to do so, given they are unlikely to do well, including in traditional Labour areas who voted leave. These voters will hold their nose while voting Conservative for this election.

Boris doesn't yet have the numbers in parliament for his deal to throw the DUP under the bus. All he needs them for is the deal and nothing else.

Adamcp898

Laura K finally being told to stop stirring the pot.....

Varta

VinLieger wrote: »

And if they are will the ERG as Bridgen claimed support them? This is faaaaaar from over

Bridgen can spout all he likes about supporting the DUP, but he will come under enormous pressure from his supporters to vote out of the EU. He may care about the DUP but his supporters couldn't give a toss.

mcmoustache

Did Johnson cause a load of fuss over the last few months just to accept a worse deal than May's WA?

ToBeFrank123

mcmoustache wrote: »

Did Johnson cause a load of fuss over the last few months just to accept a worse deal than May's WA?

Probably. Rees Mogg too.

Beechwoodspark

mcmoustache wrote: »

Did Johnson cause a load of fuss over the last few months just to accept a worse deal than May's WA?

He doesn’t care. He’s the PM now and that’s all that matters

devnull

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Laura K finally being told to stop stirring the pot.....

By who and when?

Enzokk

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

He doesn’t care. He’s the PM now and that’s all that matters

His problem now is this deal will be his to take into a new election. This will be it, he will have to fight a election not on unicorns but on what he has negotiated, which will contain enough ammunition for Farage and Labour I think. He is still in a corner, only he seems to have dumped the DUP and lost MP's to the Lib Dems as well so not going for an election is not possible as he doesn't have a majority.

He seems to have moved from one corner to another.

awec

If the UK rejects this deal then it has to be no deal.

I know no deal is costly for all concerned, but this absolute mess for the past 3+ years has a huge cost too and there has to be a line drawn.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

His problem now is this deal will be his to take into a new election. This will be it, he will have to fight a election not on unicorns but on what he has negotiated, which will contain enough ammunition for Farage and Labour I think. He is still in a corner, only he seems to have dumped the DUP and lost MP's to the Lib Dems as well so not going for an election is not possible as he doesn't have a majority.

He seems to have moved from one corner to another.

Surely the opposition should hold off on an election for as long as possible, and try and engineer a 2nd ref, as it will be the only way to get Brexit stopped.

[Well they could always pass a Revoke Art 50 motion if they have the numbers, but they think that would not be a good idea!]

Adamcp898

devnull wrote: »

By who and when?

Caught a sound of her asking Barnier just now "......is this the final deal the EU are prepared to offer?" should it not progress through the UK parliament. He began his response by saying to stop asking him to answer questions about hypothetical situations which have not occurred. All in a very cordial tone and he went on to elaborate more but the feeling was there.

Inquitus

awec wrote: »

If the UK rejects this deal then it has to be no deal.

I know no deal is costly for all concerned, but this absolute mess for the past 3+ years has a huge cost too and there has to be a line drawn.

If they reject this deal, the Benn Act comes into play and an extension must be requested.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

Surely the opposition should hold off on an election for as long as possible, and try and engineer a 2nd ref, as it will be the only way to get Brexit stopped.

[Well they could always pass a Revoke Art 50 motion if they have the numbers, but they think that would not be a good idea!]

They could try and attach an amendment to the deal for a second referendum on whether to accept it or not. I mean for Labour MPs the worst case scenario is this deal passes, now or later. If they vote for it, it passes now. If they reject, there is an election and at worst is passes in the future. At best they get a shot at their won deal or Remain. I see no incentive to vote for the deal for Labour.

As for Johnson, he may be as good a negotiator as Trump,

https://twitter.com/jnpowell1/status/1184776605308276736?s=20

Headshot

This is going to be an unreal Saturday. I just cannot wait. This is going to make up for the ****e GOT final season.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Just heard from Corbyn. They won't support it.
Jesus. How on Earth is he still leader when you listen to him waffle on.

Joe_ Public

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Just heard from Corbyn. They won't support it.
Jesus. How on Earth is he still leader when you listen to him waffle on.

On what basis should he support it?

raclle

Inquitus wrote: »

If they reject this deal, the Benn Act comes into play and an extension must be requested.

Just about to mention this. How many more extensions are they allowed?

Varta

Sam Russell wrote: »

Surely the opposition should hold off on an election for as long as possible, and try and engineer a 2nd ref, as it will be the only way to get Brexit stopped.

[Well they could always pass a Revoke Art 50 motion if they have the numbers, but they think that would not be a good idea!]

That presumes that the entire opposition is opposed to Brexit, which is not the case. Many Labour MPs are from staunch Brexit constituencies.

Varta

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Caught a sound of her asking Barnier just now "......is this the final deal the EU are prepared to offer?" should it not progress through the UK parliament. He began his response by saying to stop asking him to answer questions about hypothetical situations which have not occurred. All in a very cordial tone and he went on to elaborate more but the feeling was there.

His English is better than hers and he was annoyed with her for using 'are' instead of 'is'. ;-)

farmchoice

Varta wrote: »

That presumes that the entire opposition is opposed to Brexit, which is not the case. Many Labour MPs are from staunch Brexit constituencies.

there are a number of labour mp's who will probably vote for this deal but there are probably as many ex tory mp's who will vote against.
if the dup dont vote for it a number of erg members will also vote against it.
chances are it will lose by approx 30 votes

Joe_ Public

If they go 2nd ref route they're basically ensuring Johnson stays in power for next 5-6 months at a minimum. It's one disincentive against it.