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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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VinLieger

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The consent part is a recipe for upheaval every 4 years in Ireland, I cannot believe the EU are taking it seriously

Yeah i cant believe Varadkar and Coveney are signing off on it, maybe they are just hoping the current demographics trends make it increasingly impossible for a vote against the deal

lawred2

And worse

8) The mechanism would work as follows:

- after four years, Stormont decides by simple majority whether to maintain the arrangements for four more years. If vote is affirmative, after four more years there would be another vote if this has cross-community support

- if the vote is against the arrangements, there would be a two year cooling off period

- if Stormont is not in a position to vote, the arrangements stay

this is exactly what I feared earlier....

it should be a majority to deviate from existing - not majority to maintain existing

I can't believe that this is being considered

FrancieBrady

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The consent part is a recipe for upheaval every 4 years in Ireland, I cannot believe the EU are taking it seriously

I can see that causing ructions here and ending consensus. It makes no sense to me why we would agree to instability that will affect the whole island every 4 years.

A Shropshire Lad

It would nearly be worth an extension to watch BoJo have to write that letter asking for an extension, dead in a ditch.

[Deleted User]

Some mixed messages from RTE's correspondents on the 9pm news. Tony Connelly sticking to his optimistic line. But Tommy Gorman contradicting him on the DUP position. As said by others, I find it very hard to believe the EU is buying into this Stormont consent idea. It's nuts.

Spanish Eyes

The DUP are being paid off big time. Hope that whatever the humungous bribe might be, it will be dispersed throughout all communities. Place your bets now.

And I suppose the Quid pro quo is that the Cash for Ash will not be investigated further also.

And..... the Assembly will reconvene in order to avoid Abortion, SSM, and the Language Act. (and investigations into the Cash for Ash) Oh dear. Rock and a hard place. But I doubt SF will comply.

I think the bung (money) will win out in the end. Money talks and bullsh!t walks as they say.

Joe_ Public

Not much talk of the 39 billion, assume Johnson seems fine with handing it over despite his condemnations of it in the past. Just doesn't stack up for me on a whole lot of levels.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Some mixed messages from RTE's correspondents on the 9pm news. Tony Connelly sticking to his optimistic line. But Tommy Gorman contradicting him on the DUP position. As said by others, I find it very hard to believe the EU is buying into this Stormont consent idea. It's nuts.

Tommy will lionise the DUP or Unionist position always. He was almost calling them the moral hero's of the piece there. He is getting more ridiculous tbh.
Might be a bit of job politics going on between him and Connelly too.

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

Yeah i cant believe Varadkar and Coveney are signing off on it, maybe they are just hoping the current demographics trends make it increasingly impossible for a vote against the deal

This is a pretty major climbdown by the government. I get that we want to be all 'looking after NI interests' but this is madness.

We would never be more than 6 years away from a hard border, with the very real potential that every 4 years it turns into 2! We will spend our time talking about the fecking border.

Not only does it create a crisis of confidence in NI, it has a knock on effect on RoI.

If Leo and Coveney are agreeing to this they will lose a huge amount of the goodwill built up over the brexit years.

Has Leo really given in on this? I can't believe it. Those that claimed that the EU would throw us under the bus were wrong, it was our own government!

CelticRambler

If that protocol for consent is accurate, then that kills off every advantage for NI business - all the red tape of asking for import/export rebates, all the hassle of complying with two different VAT regimes, and no guarantee that the feckers in Stormont will keep things stable long enough to see your company through to the end of a five-year plan. Who'd want to invest in NI under such circumstances?

The only way I can interpret this as a positive move is that it's a Cunning Plan that will allow GB to push NI towards reunification.

I can't see the Scots being happy either: NI gets to have a Brexit referendum every four years, while they have to fight tooth and nail for a second Indy Ref ... and of course, the UK as whole has been told that 2016 was a one-off-never-again-democratic decision that cannot be called into question or reversed, ever.

Leroy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not much talk of the 39 billion, assume Johnson seems fine with handing it over despite his condemnations of it in the past. Just doesn't stack up for me on a whole lot of levels.

Yes, I had been wondering this myself. It is part of the WA, and seems that no-one is talking about it now.

CelticRambler

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not much talk of the 39 billion, assume Johnson seems fine with handing it over despite his condemnations of it in the past.

Is that all the DUP are getting? :P

If they have indeed been bought off for a substantial sum, it'll be interesting to see whether the Brexiters kick up as much fuss about handing a huge amount of money over to a bunch of cantankerous Irishmen (who held their precious Brexit hostage for two and a half years) as they did about fulfilling their contractual obligations to "Europe".

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

If that protocol for consent is accurate, then that kills off every advantage for NI business - all the red tape of asking for import/export rebates, all the hassle of complying with two different VAT regimes, and no guarantee that the feckers in Stormont will keep things stable long enough to see your company through to the end of a five-year plan. Who'd want to invest in NI under such circumstances?

The only way I can interpret this as a positive move is that it's a Cunning Plan that will allow GB to push NI towards reunification.

I can't see the Scots being happy either: NI gets to have a Brexit referendum every four years, while they have to fight tooth and nail for a second Indy Ref ... and of course, the UK as whole has been told that 2016 was a one-off-never-again-democratic decision that cannot be called into question or reversed, ever.

It sounds a messy deal and we already know Johnson, Cummings and the Brexiteers are a bunch of chancers who can barely be trusted.

My feeling is this won't come to pass (for whatever reason). Too technical and complicated and proposed by people not acting in good faith.

t8010789

I can’t see a possible deal getting passed the HoC on Saturday, the numbers are tight and Labour, Lib Dems and SNP will refuse to back it and push for a general election.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, I had been wondering this myself. It is part of the WA, and seems that no-one is talking about it now.

Andrew Neil raised it to a Tory minister earlier, a couple of times but got little reaction. Johnson would get serious stick for not getting some concessions on that I reckon, very odd it isn't being raised as an issue. Just something doesn't smell right to me about the whole thing.

Dyr

davedanon wrote: »

There's a triumph for optimism and no mistake. I'd give them the first; the rest, meh. If they were really canny operators, they wouldn't have ****canned May's deal. Best of both UK/EU worlds. Idiots.

If they actually get whats being touted tonight they'll have done significantly better than what Mays deal offered them.

Spanish Eyes

Where is the link to the sign off by V and Coveney wrt to this please?

To be absolutely fair FF have not interfered much either and have let them get on with it.

IMO compared with the absolute parody and faux drama going on in Westminster, our little country has acquitted itself very well in a quiet and non dictatorial way on behalf of us all, North and South.

I obviously missed the so called climb down by our Gov. I am sure someone will point me in the right direction. And thanks.

Kermit.de.frog

There has been no climb down.

If unionists in the north want to screw their own economy up in order to support the deal by having that uncertainty every 4 years then let them.

Itssoeasy

That section on consent and the mechanism behind voting every four years is(and apologies to the mods) an utter ****ing joke. So once every four years there'll be a vote in the north(which the ROI will have no say in) and like the brexit vote itself we in the ROI will get shafted potentially ? Every four years ? It's not the bloody Olympics or World Cup lads.

I hope varadkar and coveney and the rest of the team who have done very well in the last two years didn't agree to this. I mean if they have the next election Michael Martin might as well go into the Taoiseach's office in government buildings and pick the colour of the curtains and put the picture of Dev back up there and take Michael Collins down.

PokeHerKing

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There has been no climb down.

If unionists in the north want to screw their own economy up in order to support the deal by having that uncertainty every 4 years then let them.

Nothing is confirmed but it's of course a climb down IF it's true. It' would be a time limited backstop essentially.

threeball

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There has been no climb down.

If unionists in the north want to screw their own economy up in order to support the deal by having that uncertainty every 4 years then let them.

Uncertainty suits them. A NI that thrives in the EU whilst Britain stagnates is bad news for unionists. That's end game and a united Ireland is only a matter of time then.

davedanon

Not a chance any of this crap is true. 'Buzzfeed's Europe editor' pipes up and suddenly it's gospel, whereas Tony Connelly's always excellent reporting is debated back and forth? Not a hope.

Mr.Nice Guy

That consent principle idea will likely be a big can of worms.

We've often seen unionist parties in Stormont engaging in pacts as a way of ensuring seats for themselves. What if such a pact was arranged by them as a way to stay within the UK's customs orbit? Not hard to imagine, given the seriousness with which all unionists have reacted to the so-called border down the sea.

I just looked up the results of the most recent Stormont assembly election in 2017 and adding up the unionist seats overall you get 40/90. And that was an election where they did poorly.

Any future election is going to have unionist parties likely pledging to do whatever they can to get back within the UK's customs sphere in full. The magic number for an overall majority is 46 seats. If they get to that number, what then? They'd have the EU and our government by the balls. Might Sinn Fein in such a scenario bring down Stormont, thus leading to the proposed arrangements staying in place? Imagine the fury that would cause within unionism.

Just looks a recipe for endless suspicion, bitterness and hostility to me. It would cement the tribal divisions for generations to come. It doesn't surprise me that the UK government would sign up to this as they don't give a damn about this island, but I'd be very surprised if our government is okay with this.

davedanon wrote: »

Not a chance any of this crap is true. 'Buzzfeed's Europe editor' pipes up and suddenly it's gospel, whereas Tony Connelly's always excellent reporting is debated back and forth? Not a hope.

Tony retweeted it.

Water John

I'm going to wait and see on the NI option reaffirmation. I'm sure someone has run the numbers and seen the likelyhood of what is proposed becoming the status quo. So much so that the vote every 4 years will hardly be referred to.
That would be my hope if was is reported , is true.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is a pretty major climbdown by the government. I get that we want to be all 'looking after NI interests' but this is madness.

We would never be more than 6 years away from a hard border, with the very real potential that every 4 years it turns into 2! We will spend our time talking about the fecking border.

Not only does it create a crisis of confidence in NI, it has a knock on effect on RoI.

If Leo and Coveney are agreeing to this they will lose a huge amount of the goodwill built up over the brexit years.

Has Leo really given in on this? I can't believe it. Those that claimed that the EU would throw us under the bus were wrong, it was our own government!

100%

I can't see how it serves our needs at all

Spanish Eyes

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Nothing is confirmed but it's of course a climb down IF it's true. It' would be a time limited backstop essentially.

Agreed. A time limited Backstop is not a backstop end of story.

Still curious as to where the climb down is being reported, and I hope our Government will object PDQ, purely because it is unworkable IMV. But sure who am I anyway?

Kermit.de.frog

Here are the details on consent from the latest briefing to EU diplomats

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1184569738007076864

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1184569740708208641

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1184572094002147329

TCDStudent1

Any current affairs show on tonight covering Brexit?

Indestructable

Not a fan of that, at all. Rather they would head off with no deal. They'd be back soon enough.

lola85

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Where is the link to the sign off by V and Coveney wrt to this please?

To be absolutely fair FF have not interfered much either and have let them get on with it.

IMO compared with the absolute parody and faux drama going on in Westminster, our little country has acquitted itself very well in a quiet and non dictatorial way on behalf of us all, North and South.

I obviously missed the so called climb down by our Gov. I am sure someone will point me in the right direction. And thanks.

Timmy Dooley tried it and was put back in his box quickly.