Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

L1011

blackcard wrote: »

Northern Ireland exporting to say France, tariffs paid as per future trade agreement, goods will have to meet EU standards

No, NI will still be in the full Customs Union under these proposals. NI exports to ROI and rest of EEA/CU will be as they are now.

Anything otherwise would force ROI to prove every export came from ROI and not NI

Water John

Had forgotton ORDER ORDER on the LLS.

Shelga

Water John wrote: »

Had forgotton ORDER ORDER on the LLS.

What was he like?

blackcard

L1011 wrote: »

No, NI will still be in the full Customs Union under these proposals. NI exports to ROI and rest of EEA/CU will be as they are now.

So in theory, you could export from Britain to NI and from there to France and pay no tariffs?

L1011

blackcard wrote: »

So in theory, you could export from Britain to NI and from there to France and pay no tariffs?

Only if you lied to HMRC to get your tariff rebate on the Britain to NI move; essentially smuggling but a bit less dirty and more paperwork.

threeball

Shelga wrote: »

Water John wrote: »

Had forgotton ORDER ORDER on the LLS.

What was he like?

He's on now

Water John

Missed the start but very interesting, as expected.

RobertKK

The interesting bit was the personal information, where he said he is he has Romanian ancestry, and he feels European, and the wife has Irish ancestry.

blackcard

L1011 wrote: »

No, NI will still be in the full Customs Union under these proposals. NI exports to ROI and rest of EEA/CU will be as they are now.

Anything otherwise would force ROI to prove every export came from ROI and not NI

NI would really have the best of both worlds, no tariffs for exporting to the EU or UK. This is surely a no brainer even for the DUP. This would give them advantage over the ROI

Tea Shock

RobertKK wrote: »

The interesting bit was the personal information, where he said he is he has Romanian ancestry, and he feels European, and the wife has Irish ancestry.

Overall it was a pretty dreadful interview....on the part of the host.

Renewed confirmation that Bercow is still stepping down on October 31st though. That’s a shame!

threeball

blackcard wrote: »

L1011 wrote: »

No, NI will still be in the full Customs Union under these proposals. NI exports to ROI and rest of EEA/CU will be as they are now.

Anything otherwise would force ROI to prove every export came from ROI and not NI

NI would really have the best of both worlds, no tariffs for exporting to the EU or UK. This is surely a no brainer even for the DUP. This would give them advantage over the ROI

DUP don't care about properity. They only care about not being in a united Ireland. At this stage they will probably take whatever path keeps them closest to GB. They don't thrive on money, they thrive on hate.

Rjd2

newport2 wrote: »

I think the only reason the DUP are still being entertained is that Boris/ Dominic(Gollum) do not know if they need them after the election or not. The Tories don't care about NI and the Erg just use them as an excuse.

Tbh I don't see a scenario where the DUP can tell the tories to **** off after the next election.

Obviously in a dream scenario for Boris he'd want nothing to do with them, but if he must get into bed with them they can hardly say no when the alternative is possibly a Corbyn lead Leftie coalition, they'd never be forgiven in unionist circles.

And while its possible it won't be Corbyn, I don't see how any possible Corbyn replacement would be much better for DUP interests whatsoever.

Junkyard Tom

threeball wrote: »

Ideas of a runaway British economy in the wake of brexit are pure fantasy.

More like runaway in the drapetomaina sense I'd say.

NotToScale

threeball wrote: »

It's far more likely that despite a deal the British economy would still contract significantly and the 8bn black hole that is the North would once again be front and centre as the prime fat to be trimmed. Ideas of a runaway British economy in the wake of brexit are pure fantasy.

Well, considering that the EU was not holding them back in terms of developing all of those trading scenarios they seem to want, I don't really see how it will do anything positive for them.

It'll be an interesting decade, whatever the outcome.

I don't think they'll be getting back in anytime soon, even if they changed their mind. I can't really see the rest of the EU wanting to expose itself to this kind of risk again. So whatever happens, they're going it alone.

Panrich

blackcard wrote: »

NI would really have the best of both worlds, no tariffs for exporting to the EU or UK. This is surely a no brainer even for the DUP. This would give them advantage over the ROI

I remember thinking that at the time it was originally proposed. I could see enhanced EU funding to ensure any collateral damage from U.K. leaving is negated as well. Firms that want access to both U.K. and EU could set up offices in NI and take advantage of their dual status.
It will get very interesting if a deregulated UK slashes corporation tax to keep/entice foreign investment. NI then really puts a squeeze on our competitive advantage.

First Up

Panrich wrote:

I remember thinking that at the time it was originally proposed. I could see enhanced EU funding to ensure any collateral damage from U.K. leaving is negated as well. Firms that want access to both U.K. and EU could set up offices in NI and take advantage of their dual status. It will get very interesting if a deregulated UK slashes corporation tax to keep/entice foreign investment. NI then really puts a squeeze on our competitive advantage.

The EU will not provide funding to Northern Ireland if it is outside the Union.

And the UK (and everyone else) can slash their corporation tax any time they want. Nothing to do with EU membership.

theballz

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Now, they've managed to place themselves squarely at the forefront of the British political arena only to show that they're the party most divorced from the traditional British values of fair play, tolerance and respect.

This is the only thing you've said that I disagree with. The DUP fully represent "traditional" British values as they are values of superiority, arrogance and a lack of common human decency.

I think the true Irony is that the modern united kingdom has, for the most part, left these ****ty ideals behind and doesnt even recognise that the isolated unionist ritual driven culture in nothern ireland has kept these bad ideals alive for so long.

I think the British are most divorced the the traditional British values of fair play, tolerance and respect-- well at least the leave supporters.

Panrich

First Up wrote: »

And the UK (and everyone else) can slash their corporation tax any time they want. Nothing to do with EU membership.

We’ll see. I think it becomes a lot more likely in a post EU scenario. They’ll be looking at all their options to entice foreign business.

murphaph

Panrich wrote: »

We’ll see. I think it becomes a lot more likely in a post EU scenario. They’ll be looking at all their options to entice foreign business.

Even at 0% corp tax as long as the tariff and non-tariff barriers combined cost business trading into the EU (or places the EU has an FTA with) more than 12.5% then Ireland is still the more attractive location for FDI.

It's also a question of stability. A country capable of shooting itself in the head like this could do something just as crazy again.

Enzokk

It's the weekend so a Tony Connolly recap is available,

Brexit breakthrough: Injury time winner, or fatal gambit?


There isn't much new to the information that is out there already. It seems that the precise details of what the UK has offered to the EU to get past the impasse is not known outside of those involved in the discussions. What he does confirm is that the talks happening is exploratory in nature and they have not entered in the tunnel as there is still a way to go before they can get there. It does seem like the idea being pushed right now is close to what May proposed and what made Johnson ultimately resign from cabinet. That is why I have my doubts about the sincerity of the UK with these talks, they will fail because Johnson has resigned before over these same proposals.

This part spells out the problems Johnson has,

Mr Barnier then briefed the Brexit Steering Group in the European Parliament.

"There seems to be movement from the British side", said one MEP who attended the briefing, "so we will see whether that move is real in the next few days."

However, the MEP was sceptical as to Boris Johnson's true intentions.

"My view is that he doesn't want a deal and wants to blame the Europeans. Of course I can't ignore the positive vibes around the meeting with the Taoiseach and the positive vibes this morning with Barnier.

"But imagine he accepts the first version of the backstop, dressed up with another name, some cosmetic changes and he accepts that. Do you think he has a majority for that in the House of Commons?"

We are getting close to those real deadlines that needs to be faced up to. It will be interesting to see what happens but with an extension request legally in the books I don't see Labour having any incentive to vote for any Johnson deal even if it is the same as May's, which it will not be. I see Johnson is still in campaign mode, out and about schools and hospitals visiting the common people. I think that shows his true intentions rather than negotiations that will not go anywhere.

digitaldr

If this deal flies it should be a boon for bricks and mortar shops on both sides of the border as it will be much harder for online retailers to evade tarrifs.

devnull

Jeremy Corbyn won't be in Parliament next Saturday or have anything to do with the Peoples Vote movement, apparently his diary is booked and there has been a clash so he will be here instead.

http://events.labour.org.uk/event/283916

Rumour is that he'll take his fence with him.

CelticRambler

This idea that NI will become a bright and shining economic star of dual nationality is bordering on the unicornism of which we accuse the Brexiter Leavers. Sure, if the speculative dual status arrangements translate into reality, businesses established in NI will have free and easy access to GB and all the FTAs that the newly sovereign and independent GB signs with the rest of the world.

But.

Economic reality dictates that in the short term, there won't be any great FTAs with anyone, that an isolated and impoverished GB will be forced to open its market to every rogue nation and bully-boy trading block in order to maintain a semblance of normality. Under such circumstances, there will be no effective barriers on one-way trade from any EU member into GB, so NI can gain no advantage. No major companies are going to invest in NI in the hope of selling into a "failed state" - if they're that kind of vulture, they'll go straight to the core and buy cheap property, pay cheap wages to the people of Manchester, Liverpool, Sunderland, etc.

In due course, GB will stabilise and start to sign FTAs, and with whom are they most likely to do a (reasonably) good deal? The EU. Contrary to the bluff and bluster, GB really needs the EU, and they'll be running against the factory-closing clock. An FTA with Tasmania or Bolivia is not going to save jobs in the motor industry, nor put sufficient fresh food on the tables of the masses. So within five years (my estimate), GB will have a BRINO-like FTA with the EU ... and again, NI is playing on the same level field as Poland or the Netherlands, so nothing to be gained there either.

That leaves only the potential for NI to take advantage of great new trade deals with far-flung territories ... to trade what, exactly? NI does not have any inherently competitive edge in any agricultural or industrial domain, and being outside the EU will lose access to all the structural funds and subsidies that have made it an interesting place to do business since the GFA. GB's biggest export is "services" - and London will go all out to gobble up every new opportunity that arises, to compensate for the massive loss of access to the EU market.

All-in-all, NI will remain the unwanted step-child of GB in the short-term, but be now cut off from the social workers who have tried to compensate for its poor parenting. "Special status" for NI is no guarantee of a bright future.

liamtech

devnull wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn won't be in Parliament next Saturday or have anything to do with the Peoples Vote movement, apparently his diary is booked and there has been a clash so he will be here instead.

http://events.labour.org.uk/event/283916

Rumour is that he'll take his fence with him.

Im a Left Wing (Proper Left) Supporter. I hated Blairite Non-sense of the 'Third Way'

I cheered when Corbyn Took over the Uk Labor Party. And i say that as an irish man, but one who is happy when centre left and Left wing politics gain in any region or country

But i have grown to HATE Corbyn - reluctantly

When i read this post it was like a 'snap moment' - its ridiculous. possibly the biggest day in UK Politics in a long time. And Jeremy would rather be in Liverpool listening to Corbyniesta's Cheering him, and explaining why ending Private schools is a good idea -

ridiculous nonsense - he will be to blame if the Tories are in for another term

First Up

Panrich wrote:

We’ll see. I think it becomes a lot more likely in a post EU scenario. They’ll be looking at all their options to entice foreign business.

I'm not ruling it out; they'll be desperate. But there's nothing that stopped them doing it as an EU member.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

It's hard to see if Johnson and co are acting in good faith negotiations right now. I also think the EU side see them for what they are, and will go along with it for the sake of optics.

The narrative was changed slightly this week in the British media. One from how 'Dublin is being intransigent and truculent', to Leo smiling saying we would really like a deal. The position hasn't changed, but showing an openness to negotiations has helped with perception at least.

Johnson is in election mode now and is looking to spin his own narrative to suit his agenda. I'm not sure he wants a deal done at this stage.

quokula

liamtech wrote: »

Im a Left Wing (Proper Left) Supporter. I hated Blairite Non-sense of the 'Third Way'

I cheered when Corbyn Took over the Uk Labor Party. And i say that as an irish man, but one who is happy when centre left and Left wing politics gain in any region or country

But i have grown to HATE Corbyn - reluctantly

When i read this post it was like a 'snap moment' - its ridiculous. possibly the biggest day in UK Politics in a long time. And Jeremy would rather be in Liverpool listening to Corbyniesta's Cheering him, and explaining why ending Private schools is a good idea -

ridiculous nonsense - he will be to blame if the Tories are in for another term

If you ignore what the UK media says about him and pay attention to what he actually does, he is literally the only major party leader who’s official policy is to have a people’s vote.

He hasn’t missed an important Brexit vote yet (unlike the last two Lib Dem leaders for example) so just because there’s already something in his diary for a couple of hours on that date it doesn’t mean he won’t change plans if necessary. There’s nothing I can find to indicate that he’s explicitly said he won’t turn up to parliament for that session.

johnnyskeleton

CelticRambler wrote: »

This idea that NI will become a bright and shining economic star of dual nationality is bordering on the unicornism of which we accuse the Brexiter Leavers. Sure, if the speculative dual status arrangements translate into reality, businesses established in NI will have free and easy access to GB and all the FTAs that the newly sovereign and independent GB signs with the rest of the world.

...

All-in-all, NI will remain the unwanted step-child of GB in the short-term, but be now cut off from the social workers who have tried to compensate for its poor parenting. "Special status" for NI is no guarantee of a bright future.

I think the point about NI special status isnt so much European companies trading into the UK, but the other way around.

Lets take a UK bank. By setting up a sub office in Derry, they will have a base with access to the EU trade through.

Or a manufacturer. They could have a finishing plant in Newry and thus it would be manufactured in the EU.

The courts in Belfast could become the nexus point for all contract disputes between UK and EU companies.

US/Japanese firms who want to set up in the UK might look more favourably on Ni due to special status etc.

The UK, France, Germany, Italy Departments of Defence still want to work together on mutual projects. Northern Ireland could, ironically, be seen as a neutral venue for smaller military equipment production, or even Harland and Woolfe might return to ship building.

These may not amount to a huge amount of jobs in the grand scheme of things. But compared to the small population of NI, even 50,000 extra jobs would make a huge impact on them. And then of course success breeds success

gooch2k9

quokula wrote: »

If you ignore what the UK media says about him and pay attention to what he actually does, he is literally the only major party leader who’s official policy is to have a people’s vote.

He hasn’t missed an important Brexit vote yet (unlike the last two Lib Dem leaders for example) so just because there’s already something in his diary for a couple of hours on that date it doesn’t mean he won’t change plans if necessary. There’s nothing I can find to indicate that he’s explicitly said he won’t turn up to parliament for that session.

There might not even be a session. Parliament has to vote a motion to sit on Saturday. It would be ludicrous to not do so though.

Joe_ Public

devnull wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn won't be in Parliament next Saturday or have anything to do with the Peoples Vote movement, apparently his diary is booked and there has been a clash so he will be here instead.

http://events.labour.org.uk/event/283916

Rumour is that he'll take his fence with him.

The PV movement is mostly driven by a Lib Dem/new labour axis so it cant be all that surprising that Corbyn would be reluctant to get involved with it. Same reason he didnt attend the big rally they had in London back in march. Whether he'd want to be connected to it anyway is very much a moot point, but when you have the likes of Blair and Alastair Campbell in the forefront, it's not hard to see Corbyn wanting nothing to do with it. Similarily back in 2016 with Cameron having a pop at Corbyn in his book for not engaging with the campaign. The then PM and his (not so trusty) lieutenant, Craig Oliver, seemed to have this notion that Corbyn would be at their beck and call, dancing to whatever tune they dictated. Was simply never going to happen.