Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

Oneiric 3

I think tonight marks the 180th anniversary of 'Oíche na Gaoithe Móire' when winds were estimated to have reached 100 knots or more during its peak as it tore across the length and breadth of Ireland. An occurrence that none of us could even comprehend today.

Naggdefy

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think tonight marks the 180th anniversary of 'Oíche na Gaoithe Móire' when winds were estimated to have reached 100 knots or more during its peak as it tore across the length and breadth of Ireland. An occurrence that none of us could even comprehend today.

181st and last night, the night of 6/7 January 1839. Sorry for being pedantic!

US2

A great winter so far , probably better than last winter at this point for us who dont like cold.

Gonzo

US2 wrote: »

A great winter so far , probably better than last winter at this point for us who dont like cold.

last winter was exceptinally mild with a trio of milder than average months and a February which felt more like June at times. This winter started off slightly cooler than average but got mild very quickly just before Christmas. If this run was to continue all the way to 28th of February, we would probably have a record breaking mild winter. December gone by isn't as excessively mild as the previous December, however this January will surely be significantly milder than last January. The key to this winter will be February, if it's a re-run of last February then this could be the mildest winter in our lifetime, but I've a feeling this February will turn chillier. It's extremely rare to get 17 in Ireland and 21C in Wales during February, which is what happened last year!.

Graces7

Reading the posts it is hard to credit we are all in the same small country.

Out here in the ocean it has been bitterly cold this winter. My third island winter and until this one I never needed a hot water bottle. Been glued to them this year. We have had more winds etc also. The wind gathers cold as it crosses the ocean. Fingers right now are losing touch with reality.

Carry on whatever the winter; far worse things than any weather we get! Yesterday when it was not viable to get outside, hunkered down to wait it out. Nothing we can do about it so...just accept whatever we get. No weather depression here. Y'day was snug and enjoyable … got a lot done.

Listening to the mighty ocean playing with the rocks on the shore. Great fun! Revelling in it.

West Mayo offshore island

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

last winter was exceptinally mild with a trio of milder than average months and a February which felt more like June at times. This winter started off slightly cooler than average but got mild very quickly just before Christmas. If this run was to continue all the way to 28th of February, we would probably have a record breaking mild winter. December gone by isn't as excessively mild as the previous December, however this January will surely be significantly milder than last January. The key to this winter will be February, if it's a re-run of last February then this could be the mildest winter in our lifetime, but I've a feeling this February will turn chillier. It's extremely rare to get 17 in Ireland and 21C in Wales during February, which is what happened last year!.

We are already running about 1.0c higher for this early part of January than we were for the same period last year, which in itself was running over a degree above the long term average.

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think tonight marks the 180th anniversary of 'Oíche na Gaoithe Móire' when winds were estimated to have reached 100 knots or more during its peak as it tore across the length and breadth of Ireland. An occurrence that none of us could even comprehend today.

I caught an item on the BBC yesterday about a storm in, i think, 1736 which caused 80 windmills in kent to burn down because of the heat generated by the friction of the fast spinning blades... Thousands died.


People talk about extreme events today, but in this context recent times seem relatively bland.

Say my name

Looks like in the medium term we're in for a particularly windy if not stormy period going on the forecasts.

Hooter23

No doubt that when we get a storm like this again which we will eventually...it will be blamed on climate change because we are not suppose to get any extreme weather anymore apparently:rolleyes:

sryanbruen

The highest temperature I seen from yesterday on WOW was that Shanganagh climate station in Dublin observed 15.8C yesterday afternoon which would make it the highest January temperature in the country since 9th January 2015 when Ashford recorded 17.3C.

Mullingar also broke its January record (although by a very small amount) with 13.9C beating 13.8C on 16th January 1993.

ninebeanrows

A nowcast situation tonight.

It is not often the models can show such big differences at T48hrs.

In recent days we have seen big disagreements between models regarding the development of a complex low pressure system currently positioned to our southwest. Visible at the moment are 3 circulations, the deepest one at present appearing located furthest southwest, one just north of it and another now beginning to move into our southwest approaches.

Most NWP is now in agreement the current deepest low centre furthest southwest will be the main low in this complex feature and slide eastwards north of the Bay of Biscay.

However, in preceding days there have been big differences in the handling of these multiple centres.

If we take a delve into the ARPEGE ensemble system from 6z this morning, we see there still remained some uncertainty as to how these lows would develop and potentially impact Ireland.

A few members show there does remain the risk of a small but vigorous low pressure centre impacting Ireland tomorrow.

Infact when one goes through the ensemble members individually it illustrates the huge uncertainty that still remains over the next 24 hours.






So tonight is a chance for some old school meteorology - checking the water vapour / IR imagery, checking synopses charts and pressure readings from SHIPS, Buoys. The stuff that brought us into this game to start out with,

Let's see how it plays out!

ninebeanrows

Latest WV shows nice dry slot into the southwestern low centre but also a decent dry slot into the cloud head to the south of Ireland at the moment.

Derekon2009

Check out Berlin weather for the coming 10 days - temperatures of 8-11oC; no frost and a barrage of rain and wind..........if that city is not getting any cold weather, Ireland can forget it!

So nothing to see here folks....move along and come back the last week in January to see if something can be salvaged from the horror of winter 2019/2020 (from a coldies’ perspective)

D

Naggdefy

Derekon2009 wrote: »

Check out Berlin weather for the coming 10 days - temperatures of 8-11oC; no frost and a barrage of rain and wind..........if that city is not getting any cold weather, Ireland can forget it!

So nothing to see here folks....move along and come back the last week in January to see if something can be salvaged from the horror of winter 2019/2020 (from a coldies’ perspective)

D

Very unusual alright. It depends re. cold for us, we could get a northerly outbreak that wouldn't effect central Europe.

Meteorite58

Rain band making it's way inland into cold air. Sleety mix possible, small bit of accumulation on higher ground as the charts predict below ? Probably just a wet messy mix but could ave a few whitened mountains / hills in the morning , if it is not washed off !

Meteorite58

Yes sleety_Rain been a real roller coaster in the charts the last few days, looking a bit windy along S, SE coasts overnight / early morning and windy down along W coasts and fresh in the SW Thurs evening and feeling very cold in those NW winds.

Artane2002

Finally a bit of chill in Dublin 5! At the moment, next week is looking like the end of the mild weather with a return to more average temperatures. This could change though because we're still far away from next week in weather terms!

Loughc

Artane2002 wrote: »

Finally a bit of chill in Dublin 5! At the moment, next week is looking like the end of the mild weather with a return to more average temperatures. This could change though because we're still far away from next week in weather terms!

2 mornings ago going to work it was 12.5c this morning it was 4c, just mental stuff. Wish the rain would f off tho. Don't care what the temp is, as long as it's dry.

Danno

Some ninja snow overnight in South Laois. 90m.

https://twitter.com/LaoisWeather/status/1215205951768268803

RobertKK

There was a dusting of snow on the car this morning here on the hills in north Kilkenny. Just enough fell to allow one to know it did snow at one stage last night before it cleared and froze on the car.

Goldfinch8

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Rain band making it's way inland into cold air. Sleety mix possible, small bit of accumulation on higher ground as the charts predict below ? Probably just a wet messy mix but could ave a few whitened mountains / hills in the morning , if it is not washed off !



This indeed proved true. The Reek, Nephin and Bireen Corragh all had snowy caps on them this morning. I could see that the Sheefry mountains in the distance also had whitened peaks and upper slopes.
We also got a lovely morning sky to the east. A welcome change from some of those recent grey murky mornings.
Below a little glimpse of Nephin not long after the dawn.

snaps

Quick update from Southern Poland. This winter season has been the softest (Warmest and driest) in the 7 years ive lived here. We have really had to scrimp and scrape for snow and any cold at all. October was mainly dry and sunny, November the same with no snow at all for the first time ever in my region. We had a brief cold spell at start of December which lasted about 5 days, and then dry and warmth again, before Christmas it was close to 20c. Snow arrived on the 24th of December until today as now it is warm again and thawing very quickly. No real sign of any real cold or snow again for the rest of this month. Its very unnormal. Today is horrible out a real slushy mess. Usually December, January and February are completely full of snow and cold, but this season no.

An Ri rua

Danno wrote: »

Some ninja snow overnight in South Laois. 90m.

https://twitter.com/LaoisWeather/status/1215205951768268803

We had a complete covering of lawns and cars in Mountmellick. As a result of the Slieve Blooms, which also has it. Velux windows obscured.
Nó snow at all in Emo /Gandon Inn by the time my commute took me through there.

Will post a picture later if possible.

Kutebride

Saw photos of some snow in Tipperary.

Dry cold and overcast. Meath

Kermit.de.frog

Parts of Tipperary like this this morning?

https://twitter.com/QasimRashid/status/1214771713474301952

:cool:

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo and Sligo

Heavy rain with accumulations of 40-50mm over the period with localised flooding. At the coast, high seas and strong to gale force southerly winds will combine to give a risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 15:00 Friday 10/01/2020 to 15:00 Saturday 11/01/2020

Issued: 12:00 Thursday 09/01/2020

Graces7

The respite today has been blissful even though chilly. Dazzling winter sun now.
A rare commodity this month..All so peaceful. Ocean has settled.

So back into the fray...Marine also yellow warning gale force later today .

Has been nearly every night with high winds and deluges. Supplies are on the way so all is well.
These aspects matter! lol...

West Mayo offshore island

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo and Sligo

Heavy rain with accumulations of 40-50mm over the period with localised flooding. At the coast, high seas and strong to gale force southerly winds will combine to give a risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 15:00 Friday 10/01/2020 to 15:00 Saturday 11/01/2020

Issued: 12:00 Thursday 09/01/2020

Gonzo

the charts are definitely trending cooler from next week, generally average to slightly below at times with the jet stream moving more south again, still no signs of anything properly cold tho with temperatures in the 6 to 9C range. Looks very unsettled too.

Oscar Bravo

A dry and mostly bright afternoon here in Castlebar ,but with mist/fog on the hills. Knock reporting 1 degree with just 250 meters visibility @ 4pm

littlema

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A dry and mostly bright afternoon here in Castlebar ,but with mist/fog on the hills. Knock reporting 1 degree with just 250 meters visibility @ 4pm

So if it is still under 2* c here and rain is forecast.....???
S Sligo 152m asl