British version of Trump becomes PM

Enter name here

Twenty Grand wrote: »

Sure sure sure...

Everyone is seeing how much of a disaster Brexit is, despite Britain being an economic powerhouse.
Not a hope of another country leaving, especially not the weaker ones.

Actually not Britain is doing the world politicians a favour and showing the world what happens when you refuse the will of the majority. Lets see how many of the remoaners retain their seats at the next GE.
Politicians will be so scared of having their own countries governed by the equivalent of Boris that they will be asking the public on there choices to stay in the EU or leave. My best guess Italy will be the next to go after the UK.

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

If you think none of the other 27 member states are not already making plans on leaving or discussing the option you would have to have your head stuck in the ground.

The EU is all but over, the looming economic crash of the EU is only a matter of time. The sooner the better, then countries will have to right to govern and their sovereignty back from the Germans.

The failed German experiment to rule Europe has failed. Time for Ireland to look elsewhere for its next bailout.

Which countries are planning to leave?

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

Actually not Britain is doing the world politicians a favour and showing the world what happens when you refuse the will of the majority. Lets see how many of the remoaners retain their seats at the next GE.
Politicians will be so scared of having their own countries governed by the equivalent of Boris that they will be asking the public on there choices to stay in the EU or leave. My best guess Italy will be the next to go after the UK.

No. Support for the EU increased in the 12 months to April 2019. 72% would vote remain in a referendum.

Enter name here

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which countries are planning to leave?

All Markets
Bet until : 31 Dec -23:59 UK
My Markets (0) All Markets (1)
Order by:
Next Country To Leave EU
Selection Odds
2/1
Italy
4/1
Greece
5/1
Czech Republic
5/1
Poland
10/1
Sweden
12/1
France
12/1
Hungary
16/1
Ireland
18/1
Denmark
20/1
Cyprus
20/1
Romania
28/1
Netherlands
33/1
Finland
40/1
Austria
50/1
Germany
50/1
Latvia
66/1
Bulgaria
66/1
Portugal
66/1
Spain
80/1
Belgium
80/1
Croatia
80/1
Estonia
80/1
Lithuania
80/1
Malta
80/1
Slovakia
80/1
Slovenia
150/1
Luxembourg

Melanchthon

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Economies across the EU are slowing. But only one economy is thinking of crashing out of the world's largest trading bloc.

What does it say about the direction and leadership though. If the UK entering recession is a sign of stupid politicians and a misguided electorate, the biggest economy in the Eurozone and the 3rd biggest possibly entering recession means what?

Keep in mind too that the eurozone took longer than other areas to recover with it only kicking in about 6 years ago in 2013, America pulled out much faster so a slowdown is to be expected, 6 years though is too short a time for that to be the case for the eurozone.

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

All Markets
Bet until : 31 Dec -23:59 UK
My Markets (0) All Markets (1)
Order by:
Next Country To Leave EU
Selection Odds
2/1
Italy
4/1
Greece
5/1
Czech Republic
5/1
Poland
10/1
Sweden
12/1
France
12/1
Hungary
16/1
Ireland
18/1
Denmark
20/1
Cyprus
20/1
Romania
28/1
Netherlands
33/1
Finland
40/1
Austria
50/1
Germany
50/1
Latvia
66/1
Bulgaria
66/1
Portugal
66/1
Spain
80/1
Belgium
80/1
Croatia
80/1
Estonia
80/1
Lithuania
80/1
Malta
80/1
Slovakia
80/1
Slovenia
150/1
Luxembourg

Ah. Bookies' odds. The best evidence. Just an idle thought. Did you find any bookmaker odds on a country other than Britain leaving the EU by December 31st?

Enter name here

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which countries are planning to leave?

1 - Greece

Unsurprisingly, given its well-documented Euro woes, Greece tops the list of countries likely to be next to quit the EU.

Greece has already contemplated leaving the European single currency, back in 2015, when a summer of dissent resulted in bank closures and economic downturn.

The official position is that there’s no leaving the Euro without leaving the EU.

However that may not bother most Greeks, as 71 per cent said they had an unfavourable view of the EU in the Pew Research poll.

2 - Italy

A total of 59 per cent of Italians have a positive view of the EU, while 39 per cent see it in a negative light.

That might seem pretty Europhile, but the growth of the country’s Five Star Movement (MS5) would suggest there are some deeper issues.

Polls suggest MS5 could become the largest party in the next election - dramatically raising the odds of ‘Quitaly’.

I could go on but that will atleast give you something to research.

Professor Moriarty

Melanchthon wrote: »

What does it say about the direction and leadership though. If the UK entering recession is a sign of stupid politicians and a misguided electorate, the biggest economy in the Eurozone and the 3rd biggest possibly entering recession means what?

Keep in mind too that the eurozone took longer than other areas to recover with it only kicking in about 6 years ago in 2013, America pulled out much faster so a slowdown is to be expected, 6 years though is too short a time for that to be the case for the eurozone.

The global economy is also taking a hit. The EU slowdown is part of that hit.

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

1 - Greece

Unsurprisingly, given its well-documented Euro woes, Greece tops the list of countries likely to be next to quit the EU.

Greece has already contemplated leaving the European single currency, back in 2015, when a summer of dissent resulted in bank closures and economic downturn.

The official position is that there’s no leaving the Euro without leaving the EU.

However that may not bother most Greeks, as 71 per cent said they had an unfavourable view of the EU in the Pew Research poll.

2 - Italy

A total of 59 per cent of Italians have a positive view of the EU, while 39 per cent see it in a negative light.

That might seem pretty Europhile, but the growth of the country’s Five Star Movement (MS5) would suggest there are some deeper issues.

Polls suggest MS5 could become the largest party in the next election - dramatically raising the odds of ‘Quitaly’.

I could go on but that will atleast give you something to research.

Could you link to those polls?

Melanchthon

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No. Support for the EU increased in the 12 months to April 2019. 72% would vote remain in a referendum.

Why are you framing it to April 2019, there was a poll published today in the Sunday Independent that showed support was down.

I don't think Irexit will happen or should happen myself btw but why choose that timeline?

Enter name here

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which countries are planning to leave?

Considering which countries want to leave the EU, several others could potentially quit. Among them:

Poland is arguing with the EU over a controversial reform of its judiciary and in a recent poll a third of those questioned said they rejected EU membership. The risk of Polexit was acknowledged in November by European Council President Donald Tusk, a former Polish Prime Minister, who told reporters: “The matter is dramatically serious. The risk is deadly serious. Polexit is possible”.

Hungary is also in dispute with the EU, having been admonished by the European Parliament. Lawmakers said it was becoming an authoritarian state at the heart of Europe that encourages nationalists across the continent to follow the same path, and voted overwhelmingly in September to label Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government a “systemic threat to the rule of law”. Although unlikely, moves to expel it from the EU are possible.

In Sweden, the right-wing anti-immigration Sweden Democrats became the third-largest party in the 2018 elections, leading to political deadlock. While they will not be part of any new coalition that is formed, their advance suggests that anti-EU sentiment is rising there too, despite a survey showing Swedes are still overwhelmingly against Swexit.

In Estonia, the populist Eurosceptic EKRE party is gaining ground ahead of elections on March 3, 2019 and could become the third-largest party there. Once again, the chances of an exit are low but not insignificant.

Euroscepticism is also high in the Czech Republic and politicians have called for a Czexit referendum.

I could do this all night should i carry on?

Professor Moriarty

Melanchthon wrote: »

Why are you framing it to April 2019, there was a poll published today in the Sunday Independent that showed support was down.

I don't think Irexit will happen or should happen myself btw but why choose that timeline?

I don't read the Independent. Can you link to the poll?

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

Considering which countries want to leave the EU, several others could potentially quit. Among them:

Poland is arguing with the EU over a controversial reform of its judiciary and in a recent poll a third of those questioned said they rejected EU membership. The risk of Polexit was acknowledged in November by European Council President Donald Tusk, a former Polish Prime Minister, who told reporters: “The matter is dramatically serious. The risk is deadly serious. Polexit is possible”.

Hungary is also in dispute with the EU, having been admonished by the European Parliament. Lawmakers said it was becoming an authoritarian state at the heart of Europe that encourages nationalists across the continent to follow the same path, and voted overwhelmingly in September to label Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government a “systemic threat to the rule of law”. Although unlikely, moves to expel it from the EU are possible.

In Sweden, the right-wing anti-immigration Sweden Democrats became the third-largest party in the 2018 elections, leading to political deadlock. While they will not be part of any new coalition that is formed, their advance suggests that anti-EU sentiment is rising there too, despite a survey showing Swedes are still overwhelmingly against Swexit.

In Estonia, the populist Eurosceptic EKRE party is gaining ground ahead of elections on March 3, 2019 and could become the third-largest party there. Once again, the chances of an exit are low but not insignificant.

Euroscepticism is also high in the Czech Republic and politicians have called for a Czexit referendum.

I could do this all night should i carry on?

Carry on all you like. How many of these countries have planned to have an EU in/out referendum?

Melanchthon

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The global economy is also taking a hit. The EU slowdown is part of that hit.

As I mentioned in that post, other areas recovered quicker than the eurozone so a slowdown is less strange, Eurozone recovery has only been occurring for 6 years, why is the recession risk for major European economies not a sign of incompetent leadership within those countries while recession risk in the UK is?

Enter name here

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Carry on all you like. How many of these countries have planned to have an EU in/out referendum?

Obviously reading and research isn't your strongest point, would you like me to come around and wipe your ass while I'm at it?

Professor Moriarty

Melanchthon wrote: »

As I mentioned in that post, other areas recovered quicker than the eurozone so a slowdown is less strange, Eurozone recovery has only been occurring for 6 years, why is the recession risk for major European economies not a sign of incompetent leadership within those countries while recession risk in the UK is?

I'm not sure what point of mine you are discussing here?

Melanchthon

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I don't read the Independent. Can you link to the poll?

There has also been an appreciable increase in concern in relation to the EU and Brexit: 56pc agreed the EU would respect Ireland's special position with the UK in the Brexit negotiations, down six points since July 2018; 77pc agreed that, historically, the EU has been good to Ireland, down seven points; 68pc agreed that, on balance, the EU has been good to Ireland over the past 10 years, down eight points; while 71pc agreed the EU had more control over Ireland's economic situation than the Government, down one point in a year.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/majority-fail-to-back-leo-varadkars-brexit-strategy-38351843.html

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

Obviously reading and research isn't your strongest point, would you like me to come around and wipe your ass while I'm at it?

Bookies' odds. And you didn't even understand them. Enough said.

Professor Moriarty

Melanchthon wrote: »

There has also been an appreciable increase in concern in relation to the EU and Brexit: 56pc agreed the EU would respect Ireland's special position with the UK in the Brexit negotiations, down six points since July 2018; 77pc agreed that, historically, the EU has been good to Ireland, down seven points; 68pc agreed that, on balance, the EU has been good to Ireland over the past 10 years, down eight points; while 71pc agreed the EU had more control over Ireland's economic situation than the Government, down one point in a year.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/majority-fail-to-back-leo-varadkars-brexit-strategy-38351843.html

What's that got to do with Italy??

steddyeddy

Enter name here wrote: »

Considering which countries want to leave the EU, several others could potentially quit. Among them:

Poland is arguing with the EU over a controversial reform of its judiciary and in a recent poll a third of those questioned said they rejected EU membership. The risk of Polexit was acknowledged in November by European Council President Donald Tusk, a former Polish Prime Minister, who told reporters: “The matter is dramatically serious. The risk is deadly serious. Polexit is possible”.

Hungary is also in dispute with the EU, having been admonished by the European Parliament. Lawmakers said it was becoming an authoritarian state at the heart of Europe that encourages nationalists across the continent to follow the same path, and voted overwhelmingly in September to label Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government a “systemic threat to the rule of law”. Although unlikely, moves to expel it from the EU are possible.

In Sweden, the right-wing anti-immigration Sweden Democrats became the third-largest party in the 2018 elections, leading to political deadlock. While they will not be part of any new coalition that is formed, their advance suggests that anti-EU sentiment is rising there too, despite a survey showing Swedes are still overwhelmingly against Swexit.

In Estonia, the populist Eurosceptic EKRE party is gaining ground ahead of elections on March 3, 2019 and could become the third-largest party there. Once again, the chances of an exit are low but not insignificant.

Euroscepticism is also high in the Czech Republic and politicians have called for a Czexit referendum.

I could do this all night should i carry on?

There's loonies in every country. It doesn't mean the country is planning to leave. For instance there's small support in Ireland for rejoining the UK, but as I say, loonies everywhere.

Enter name here

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Bookies' odds. And you didn't even understand them. Enough said.

Excellent comment, back in December 2015 I had a lovely wager on DT to win everyone said I was mad. I continued to place every spare cent on DT. Fast forward Jan 2017 paid cash for my house in April 2017 and now live mortgage free imagine that. Pretty sure I understand odds more than you could imagine.

Augme

A total of 59 per cent of Italians have a positive view of the EU, while 39 per cent see it in a negative light.


So let me get this right, this is a sign that itatly want to leave the EU? And to think, lll this time I've completely misunderstood statistics.

Melanchthon

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm not sure what point of mine you are discussing here?

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU aren't terrified. Brexit won't be a success.

Recession means that Brexit is not a success, thats an OK viewpoint to have, but it begs the question how successful is the eurozone now as the same experts are worried about recession in its major economies.

The prevailing mood of the thread is that the UK is being governed by incompetents, I am not sure I disagree completely with this view point, I am making the argument though that the Eurozone leadership is also failing badly.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What's that got to do with Italy??

My f-ck up there had been re-reading that article thought referring to irish polling

Enter name here

A little light reading. See what one of the world's leading hedge fund managers is doing.

https://moneyweek.com/483882/the-man-betting-18bn-on-euro-failure/

But yes let's believe all the Irish economic geniuses here and say how grand the EU really is and how it is going to go on and prosper.

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

Excellent comment, back in December 2015 I had a lovely wager on DT to win everyone said I was mad. I continued to lay every spare cent on DT. Fast forward Jan 2017 paid cash for my house in April 2017 and now live mortgage free imagine that. Pretty sure I understand odds more than you could imagine.

I'd say you're worth an absolute fortune.

Professor Moriarty

Melanchthon wrote: »

Recession means that Brexit is not a success, thats an OK viewpoint to have, but it begs the question how successful is the eurozone now as the same experts are worried about recession in its major economies.

The prevailing mood of the thread is that the UK is being governed by incompetents, I am not sure I disagree completely with this view point, I am making the argument though that the Eurozone leadership is also failing badly.

Well, my point relates to the EU as a unified economic bloc. Naturally, countries within the EU will have ups and downs and have governments of varying quality. But that in itself doesn't mean that the EU isn't good for their economies.

Britain's economy has suffered as a result of the referendum and the uncertainty Brexit continues to create. If they crash out of the EU, it will be a hammer blow to an economy that is already stalling.

My f-ck up there had been re-reading that article thought referring to irish polling

No worries. The Irish stats you quoted made for interesting reading.

killanena

I get they can't have another brexit referendum because it goes against what a referendum means but why not have a referendum on whether they should be another brexit referendum or not and if they vote yes it would cancel the original out? xD

Enter name here

killanena wrote: »

I get they can't have another brexit referendum because it goes against what a referendum means but why not have a referendum on whether they should be another brexit referendum or not and if they vote yes it would cancel the original out? xD

Great idea, then if they vote yes we could have another referendum on whether the referendum to hold another referendum was worth a referendum anyway.
You know what people turn old enough to vote every week and every week people die we should think about a daily referendum just in case the voting mood of the snowflakes changes dramatically from day to day.

killanena

Enter name here wrote:

Great idea, then if they vote yes we could have another referendum on whether the referendum to hold another referendum was worth a referendum anyway. You know what people turn old enough to vote every week and every week people die we should think about a daily referendum just in case the voting mood of the snowflakes changes dramatically from day to day.

Now we're on to something

Laois_Man

Enter name here wrote: »

A little light reading. See what one of the world's leading hedge fund managers is doing.

https://moneyweek.com/483882/the-man-betting-18bn-on-euro-failure/

But yes let's believe all the Irish economic geniuses here and say how grand the EU really is and how it is going to go on and prosper.

Not really sure what the point is. There has always been recessions and there always will be. It’s a natural cycle not unique to the EU. There’s nothing genius about it.