Violent Protests In Hong Kong.

Yurt2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

and TBH the attitude here is that China would be better served focusing on Asian relationships rather than pandering to western nations or western corporations.

There is definitely a hubris in China that they will somehow inherit the mantle of regional cultural and political hegemon just because they are big and their economy is ticking over (for now).

Countries like Japan, Korea and Vietnam (less so Nam because how China is behaving in their territorial waters) just about put up with capricious Chinese political behaviour because they are economically exposed to them.

The veneer of Asian solidarity slips away pretty quickly when the CCP decides on a whim to foster economic boycotts against neighbors because of some issue or another. If they are really seeking to nurture better relations in the region, they have a funny way of going about it. Political elites and the general public in these (rather important regional) countries don't particularly trust the CCP. It's viewed as an increasingly arrogant and unpredictable partner, particularly since Xi came along.

There is a peculiar strain of thought in China that it's natural that other East-Asian countries will fall in line behind China because of some warped blood, soil and neo-Confucian racial solidarity.

In Korea in particular, there is alarm at the goings on in HK. They had a long hard fight to earn their democratic rights and liberties, and what's happening in HK doesn't set their mind at ease. Chinese students in their university system have been acting up of late, and they'll be more likely to say 'get your ass back to the motherland then' as opposed to say British universities.

In the region, suspicion and mistrust of China and their intentions abounds, just as it does in North America and Europe.

And just on Xi's standing in the party, even the most seasoned China watchers admit it's workings are opaque. Everyone looks unassailable and politically untouchable until a cabal forms to ruthlessly purge an individual or rival clique. That's Chinese politics, and there have been credible rumblings of unease about how Xi has handled the trade war and general economic malaise that's gripping many provinces.

Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang looked like some of the most untouchable people in China, until they found out they were eating their oats in the wrong stable, and then found themselves subject to completely impartial an a-political prosecutions.

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

There is definitely a hubris in China that they will somehow inherit the mantle of regional cultural and political hegemon just because they are big and their economy is ticking over (for now).

That's not the only reason. It's due to China's historical influence from imperial times. Subject nations and cultural inferiors etc. Beijing has never stopped wanting to return to that superior nation status.

Countries like Japan, Korea and Vietnam (less so Nam because how China is behaving in their territorial waters) just about put up with capricious Chinese political behaviour because they are economically exposed to them.

Again, not the only reason. Korea fears China's military, and Japan, while superior in naval terms, doesn't have either the interest in a war, but they're also aware of just how vulnerable they are to a blockade. Chinese missiles could easily destroy the majority of shipping to Japan, which they need for food and other essentials. While the US would step in, Japan does not want to owe the US anything... They've been very careful to keep the US at arms length but still an element of an alliance. Vietnam hates China, but will stay out of any maneuvering simply because they gain nothing by being involved.

The veneer of Asian solidarity slips away pretty quickly when the CCP decides on a whim to foster economic boycotts against neighbors because of some issue or another. If they are really seeking to nurture better relations in the region, they have a funny way of going about it. Political elites and the general public in these (rather important regional) countries don't particularly trust the CCP. It's viewed as an increasingly arrogant and unpredictable partner, particularly since Xi came along.

To be fair, the same can be said of any major nation. The US forgets it's economic and military allies, often bullying other nations whenever they want something for themselves.

Nobody trusts China, but they understand them. Just as few of them trust western nations. You're trying to suggest that the CCP are somehow unique for the distrust generated. They're not.

There is a peculiar strain of thought in China that it's natural that other East-Asian countries will fall in line behind China because of some warped blood, soil and neo-Confucian racial solidarity.

Not really. The attitude is that the West is not to be trusted (which is merited), and that Asian countries should work together in an informal setting, with China as their natural leader. Asians have a much longer appreciation for history (their version of history) than many Westerners.

In Korea in particular, there is alarm at the goings on in HK. They had a long hard fight to earn their democratic rights and liberties, and what's happening in HK doesn't set their mind at ease. Chinese students in their university system have been acting up of late, and they'll be more likely to say 'get your ass back to the motherland then' as opposed to say British universities.

Agreed, although not sure what their fight for democratic rights and liberties has to do with China. There is serious anti-western sentiment in Korea which has been building for years. China isn't interested in expanding into Korea... I've heard absolutely no rhetoric regarding them, and I hear quite a bit of political commentary from Chinese friends.

In the region, suspicion and mistrust of China and their intentions abounds, just as it does in North America and Europe.

The Region? As in Asia? Definitely, but that suspicion has always been there. And its very different from the suspicion by western nations because the priorities are completely different.

And just on Xi's standing in the party, even the most seasoned China watchers admit it's workings are opaque. Everyone looks unassailable and politically untouchable until a cabal forms to ruthlessly purge an individual or rival clique. That's Chinese politics, and there have been credible rumblings of unease about how Xi has handled the trade war and general economic malaise that's gripping many provinces.

Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang looked like some of the most untouchable people in China, until they found out they were eating their oats in the wrong stable, and then found themselves subject to completely impartial an a-political prosecutions.

I know a variety of analysts regarding China and the political commentary. Most are guessing wildly because they have few real contacts within the government because nobody will talk to them. No Chinese person is going to commit treason by passing information to a foreign spy (which an analyst is considered to be) unless they offer incredible rewards and security. Xi's actual power is unknowable for anyone outside the loop.

His connections to the military are well known though, and his commitment to modernizing the PLA, and other arms have garnered him much respect among the military. That's also quite easily found out. The military remain the sole force in Chinese politics since the days of pre-78 are essentially gone. You might want to talk about vulnerabilities relating to the past, but it's irrelevant. Right now, all signs point to Xi being supreme.

Yurt2

I've very little to say other than your characterisation of anti-American / Western sentiment in Korea is vastly overplayed. It resembles French grumblings about America (and almost exclusively on the hard left) and not much more than that. America and the west generally enjoys a trust and respect in Korea that China likely never will.

Korea's democracy movement has a lot to do with because their instincts are with the students. Gwangju uprising and the student movements of the late 80s. They're getting flashbacks and the same stubborn forces of autocracy are at play in HK as there was back then in Korea.

The China has 5000 years of history palaver is straight out of the Han chauvinism handbook. The Greek and Roman underpinnings of European society are stronger and more visible in the West than the mists of time immemorial nonsense that China carries on with.

Xi will be all powerful until he's not. An economic shock or HK escalating and he'll be surplus to requirements.

You're trying to suggest that there's something esoteric and simply unknowable about eastern cultures, which means eastern nations will be bedfellows with each other despite the chasm in values between autocratic China and largely democratic Japan and Korea. The long and the short of it is that China under the CCP will not capture the hearts of America's allies in Asia. If the CCP wants respect in its postcode, it will have to up it's game big time.

Yurt2

Fundamentally, the modern PRC is a country that feels sorry for itself. Wants great power status but refuses to accept criticism when it misbehaves.

It doesn't have the long-standing good-will that America (mostly) has cultivated for over a century, and thinks it deserves nice things because it's big and came into money.

It's an overgrown teenager that's not in control of its emotions and is prone to lashing out. It's going to get worse in my view if they stay on track

Yurt2

Double post.

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

I've very little to say other than your characterisation of anti-American / Western sentiment in Korea is vastly overplayed. It resembles French grumblings about America (and almost exclusively on the hard left) and not much more than that. America and the west generally enjoys a trust and respect in Korea that China likely never will.

Then you missed the ceremonies and protests outside US military compounds by older Koreans? Or the bitterness that often surfaces on Korean bulletin boards online?

Korea's democracy movement has a lot to do with because their instincts are with the students. Gwangju uprising and the student movements of the late 80s. They're getting flashbacks and the same stubborn forces of autocracy are at play in HK as there was back then in Korea.

Except that it has nothing to do with China. China already has its piece of Korea with their idiotic puppet N.Korea. They don't want the South because that would definitely bring the US back in major strength. They gain nothing and risk everything.

Korea means absolutely nothing to China in terms of HK. Nobody does. Hk is theirs and they'll fight anyone who stands in their way. Dunno why you keep bringing up the students in Korea... It means nothing the situation in HK.

The China has 5000 years of history palaver is straight out of the Han chauvinism handbook. The Greek and Roman underpinnings of European society are stronger and more visible in the West than the mists of time immemorial nonsense that China carries on with.

Agreed, but then I'm talking about the power and influence of the last two dynasties before westerners toppled their perception of superiority.

Xi will be all powerful until he's not. An economic shock or HK escalating and he'll be surplus to requirements.

Pure guesswork with no evidence to base it on. He's got military backing. That's enough evidence to show that he'll remain in power.

You're trying to suggest that there's something esoteric and simply unknowable about eastern cultures, which means eastern nations will be bedfellows with each other despite the chasm in values between autocratic China and largely democratic Japan and Korea. The long and the short of it is that China under the CCP will not capture the hearts of America's allies in Asia. If the CCP wants respect in its postcode, it will have to up it's game big time.

Hardly. I'm saying that Asian culture is not western culture. You're trying to link democracy as being the same across all cultures that have adopted it. Asian countries understand each other because they've been trying to conquer each other for thousands of years. Their conflicts are established, and they have their own ways to negotiate with each other that doesn't follow Western rules.

Asian countries are pragmatic. They'll support China if they see a benefit for themselves... Even Japan will do so if they feel secure enough. They'll be willing enough to give token gestures of respect if it means an avoidance of serious trouble. The west has never been trusted in Asia, and the actions of the US since Obama has just reinforced that distrust.

And which US allies is the CCP trying to capture?

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

Fundamentally, the modern PRC is a country that feels sorry for itself. Wants great power status but refuses to accept criticism when it misbehaves.

It doesn't have the long-standing good-will that America (mostly) has cultivated for over a century, and thinks it deserves nice things because it's big and came into money.

It's an overgrown teenager that's not in control of its emotions and is prone to lashing out. It's going to get worse in my view if they stay on track

They're a power, and powers seek to exercise their will within their sphere of influence. They don't care what anyone thinks. Did the Soviets care what others thought when they exercised within their own sphere? No, they did what they wanted. Does the US really care what other countries think about what they do in the M.East? Nope. Not in the slightest, because they're still in there. Guantanamo Bay is still in operation with torture and kidnappings.

We're not talking minor nations here. We're talking about a world power.

Yurt2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Then you missed the ceremonies and protests outside US military compounds by older Koreans? Or the bitterness that often surfaces on Korean bulletin boards online?

Heavily localised protests (not unlike objections to facilities in Okinawa), and anti-Americanism is a fringe movement in the ROK. If you see the people's front of Judea marching down the street of Paris decrying Western imperialism, we don't go painting France as anti-western all of a sudden. Much like France, protesting is a national pastime in Korea, and there's all sorts of kooks in the mix.

It's one of the most consistently pro-US countries in Asia, with deep political, cultural and and military ties.

I'm not sure what bulletin boards you refer to, but as you know the internet is not real life. I wouldn't be sure you're perusing Korean language social media auditing it for anti-American sentiment all that regularly.

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

It's one of the most consistently pro-US countries in Asia, with deep political, cultural and and military ties.
.

We'll just have to disagree here. I've heard plenty of anti-western sentiments from Korean businessmen I've known in Asia, and Koreans living in China.

Still... it's irrelevant, just as Korea is irrelevant to the protests in HK.

Dumb but at least they look cool I guess. Sick Apple Watch.

Overheal

News video: HK Police advance on University under threat of live fire

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/hong-kong-police-pummel-university-with-water-cannon-as-officer-hit-by-arrow/2019/11/17/f004c978-091f-11ea-8054-289aef6e38a3_story.html

quodec

Any specific reason why China (mainland) hasn't become directly involved yet - political, commercial reasons?

Those poor kids in PUHK. I expect a lot of death "by suicide" over the next couple of days.

pauldla

SupChina has a good overview of The Story So Far...

What do the Hong Kong protesters want?

Kermit.de.frog

quodec wrote: »

Any specific reason why China (mainland) hasn't become directly involved yet - political, commercial reasons?

People don't appreciate the protection America's unique position to project it's immense power in every part of the world affords the world's democracies against tyranny.

That's why.

Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

News video: HK Police advance on University under threat of live fire

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/hong-kong-police-pummel-university-with-water-cannon-as-officer-hit-by-arrow/2019/11/17/f004c978-091f-11ea-8054-289aef6e38a3_story.html

Reuters withdrew report of live fire threat. ?

pauldla

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

People don't appreciate the protection America's unique position to project it's immense power in every part of the world affords the world's democracies against tyranny.

That's why.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

People don't appreciate the protection America's unique position to project it's immense power in every part of the world affords the world's democracies against tyranny.

That's why.

Rubbish. The US hasn't had the ability to project it's military in a substantial way since the first Gulf war. That kind of force projection is incredibly expensive, and there's been little actual need for it, which is why past presidents allowed it to lapse. The US relies on small units of troops rather than the kind of conventional forces that would be needed to tackle China head on. It could cripple China's infrastructure with the use of Air Power (which is one of their original plans for taking on China), but that would simply push China towards using it's rather hefty nuclear arsenal.

The two real issues are nuclear weapons and Trade. The US has never said it wouldn't use it's nukes should it feel threatened... However nuking China would open Pandora's box on the whole Issue. Russia would nuke the US in retaliation along with China's own nukes. Why? Radiation would be carried on the wind would affect Russia in a major manner.

Trade is the biggest concern. Hence the recent Trade war. China relies on imports from many countries for it's food intake, along with many resources it hasn't tapped into (yet), within China itself. Tackling the US would likely force most countries to choose the West over China, and that means damaging the Chinese economy, which 'might' create instability with Chinese people. I say, might, because such a thing has never happened in any substantial way.

The Chinese government haven't involved themselves directly in HK yet, because once they're in, then they're there to stay. It has nothing to do with Western influence, or US interference... because the US wouldn't risk WW3 on a city it has no obligation to help. No. China doesn't want HK to escalate because they've been trying for years to put the more public aspect on the Iron glove behind them. They don't want to be seen as an outright aggressor to Asians, since they currently have some moral high ground since HK is Chinese territory. As long as they allow the Police to manage most of the unrest, they'll save a degree of face, but once the PLA go it, they know things will escalate wildly.

After all, a military force is not a police force... The US has found that out in Iraq/Afghanistan as their military has been blunted. It simply forces the local population into their enemies camps, and turn to guerrilla warfare. Beijing will hope for a reasonably peaceful way to settle this, even if it costs some police officers lives, although they might use some of their own special forces as an action against terrorism.

As for the US... you really need to open your eyes, and drop the shining pillar of glory in the defense of democracy propaganda. The US hasn't been a defender of democracy for decades, considering the manner it's conducted its' wars, rigged elections (both domestic & abroad) and persecuted anyone even remotely perceived as being connected to terrorism or a threat to the US. Guantanamo Bay is a grisly reminder of that change in the US, as are the lies told to justify the 2nd invasion of Iraq. The US is the worlds superpower for the moment, and it does whatever it wants to do.

dwayneshintzy

District council elections, looks like 17/18 districts and over 85% of declared seats will be going to pro-democracy parties (on by far the highest voter turnout ever).

The idea that the "silent majority" of HK citizens oppose the protestors and support the police (supported by some posters on here) is obviously absolute bollocks.

dwayneshintzy

They've actually taken 18/18 districts

votecounts

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

People don't appreciate the protection America's unique position to project it's immense power in every part of the world affords the world's democracies against tyranny.

That's why.

Laughable, America only likes democracy when it suits their agenda as is the case with Saudi, UAE, etc and then tries coups when they don't like Venezuela and South American Countries.

Yurt2

Thumping victory for the pan-democracy camp. As another poster said, puts to bed the notion that there was some mythical 'silent majority' in HK that are red of claw Beijing loyalists and that the protest movement was just supported by disaffected teenagers in short pants.

This is in the face of pro-Beijing parties allegedly busing in pensioners (who had valid polling cards it must be said) who were retired across the border and handing out red envelopes to others.

The people of HK have put it up to them on the streets and at the ballot box. Almost a complete wipeout for the pro-Beijing parties - parties and candidates it must be said, the CCP spent a lot of time money and effort cultivating.

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

Thumping victory for the pan-democracy camp. As another poster said, puts to bed the notion that there was some mythical 'silent majority' in HK that are red of claw Beijing loyalists and that the protest movement was just supported by disaffected teenagers in short pants.

Ahh well, when you put all of those who wanted democracy into the same camp, then it's easy to dismiss such claims. However, it should be noted that many objections (true enough, not all) were about support for the violent protests rather than the peaceful marching. The claims of a silent majority often referred to not supporting violence against the police and property in the name of the whole movement.

This is in the face of pro-Beijing parties allegedly busing in pensioners (who had valid polling cards it must be said) who were retired across the border and handing out red envelopes to others.

Hardly any different from US political parties shifting districts borders to increase their voting power, or a host of other tricks that democratic nations do. I'm not terribly impressed with any tricks being used to influence independent voting, but I'd prefer posters were a little more balanced in the criticisms. It's not as if western political groups are innocent of manipulating votes.

The people of HK have put it up to them on the streets and at the ballot box. Almost a complete wipeout for the pro-Beijing parties - parties and candidates it must be said, the CCP spent a lot of time money and effort cultivating.

Yup... and it means absolutely nothing.. Democracy in HK was never going to happen. You're all shouting as if they've won a great victory. They haven't. They've given Beijing the middle finger. Go team "stupid". Now, Beijing has little choice but to respond in force. This voting should have been done to appease Beijing, and gain some degree of sympathy in China. Instead, they're simply reinforcing the division between mainland China and HK...

dwayneshintzy

Jaysis, they're stupid now are they?

And no, the claims of a "silent majority" weren't just that they opposed violence but somehow still supported protestors. You yourself claimed in here that protestors had lost public support, this emphatically shows that that isn't the case.

"This voting should have been done to appease Beijing"......look, it seems you've been in China long enough that you see the CCP view on society and governance as acceptable. People in Hong Kong obviously don't; you may see it as pissing in the wind, but I don't think it's up to you to tell them to meekly give up their way of life.

dwayneshintzy

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Jaysis, they're stupid now are they?

Actually, I said they were stupid pages before.

And no, the claims of a "silent majority" weren't just that they opposed violence but somehow still supported protestors. You yourself claimed in here that protestors had lost public support, this emphatically shows that that isn't the case.

]

I said that the violent protesters had lost public support. Twice now.

"This voting should have been done to appease Beijing"......look, it seems you've been in China long enough that you see the CCP view on society and governance as acceptable. People in Hong Kong obviously don't; you may see it as pissing in the wind, but I don't think it's up to you to tell them to meekly give up their way of life.

I'm not telling them anything. I'm opposing your cheering from the stands, because I can easily see you moaning from the stands when things turn nasty. I'm asking for some realism here.

And as for accepting the CCP view on society and governance... nope. But I do understand their culture in a way that you obviously don't. Just as I understand why Beijing will never allow any degree of western democracy to gain a foothold within Chinese territory.

dwayneshintzy

What do you mean by "from the stands", klaz?

And to be clear, this was the post you'd made about "protestors" losing public support;

Except that, for a time, there were no violent clashes with the protesters, and the police were in control. That changed, obviously. Who is to blame? No idea. Personally I suspect the police were told to make an example, with the situation getting out of hand.... along with the protesters thinking themselves losing public opinion (which they have) and wanted to make some martyrs.

Yurt2

Breaking news, Irish poster declares HK citizens 'stupid' for voting in a manner that make his posts on topic look silly.

Unconfirmed reports that he is rejecting a plate of Szechuan flavored crow are now filtering in.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But I do understand their culture in a way that you obviously don't.

Let's be real here, you're a keyboard Sinologist. I'm not trying to be mean, but there's a bang of 'only I have dedicated my life to understanding the inner workings of the Chinese mind and the intricasies of the Chinese Communist Party thought'.

markodaly

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/24/world/asia/hong-kong-election-results.html

A thumping political victory if one ever saw it. The pro-Beijing crew got annihilated.
The HK Pro-Democracy groupings have a massive mandate now from the people of HK.

The ball is in Beijing's court now, but they will probably just try to ignore it like some posters here, and then blame the protestors when things turn violent again when Carrie Lam and Co. flatly ignore their demands.

The cat is out of the bag regards China.

markodaly

Deleted User wrote: »

Yup... and it means absolutely nothing.. Democracy in HK was never going to happen. You're all shouting as if they've won a great victory. They haven't. They've given Beijing the middle finger. Go team "stupid". Now, Beijing has little choice but to respond in force. This voting should have been done to appease Beijing, and gain some degree of sympathy in China. Instead, they're simply reinforcing the division between mainland China and HK...

This is some bizarre stuff it must be said.

I suppose they should be grateful they are not all in detention camps, like the Ughuers... so they should say thanks to Bejing for that?

That is your logic.

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

Breaking news, Irish poster declares HK citizens 'stupid' for voting in a manner that make his posts on topic look silly.

Unconfirmed reports that he is rejecting a plate of Szechuan flavored crow are now filtering in.

Well... considering that you decided to make a joke out of it rather than actually respond directly to what I said... That says a lot by itself.

Tell me something. I've asked this before and haven't received any answers. Realistically, what do you genuinely believe the reaction by the Chinese government will be to the protests? Do you believe that Beijing will cave in to their demands? Edit: Actually forget it. No point since you're unwilling to think about the realities of the situation.

Let's be real here, you're a keyboard Sinologist. I'm not trying to be mean, but there's a bang of 'only I have dedicated my life to understanding the inner workings of the Chinese mind and the intricasies of the Chinese Communist Party thought'.

Now you're stretching things quite a bit. I've lived here on mainland China for over a decade... that gives me greater insight into Chinese culture compared to someone whose only exposure to China is fast food and the internet. That's you, btw.

But hey... it's fine. I get it. You're clearly right and I'm clearly wrong. The HK protests will succeed in obtaining all their demands, the Chinese government will not seek to make them pay for causing trouble (one way or another), and there will be a glorious victory for those in the right. That's you, btw.

I do wonder though if you'll feel any sadness when things don't work out and we see HK under military occupation.... nah. You'll get to complain about that too.

markodaly wrote:

This is some bizarre stuff it must be said.

I suppose they should be grateful they are not all in detention camps, like the Ughuers... so they should say thanks to Bejing for that?

That is your logic.

Not even remotely similar to what I said. :mad:

Ok. I'm done with this thread.