Wretched election for Sinn Féin - what now?

Richard Hillman

There is only so much vote that they can attain from the Lower Working Class and Welfare Classes. Unemployment is at 5.4% of which they have to compete with PBP/AAA for. Low earners, of which there are a lot, have a high percentage of Foreign workers who cannot vote.

Middle aged to Old People won't vote for them because of their past. They are not sexy enough for younger people like The Greens or SocDems. They are not Revolutionary enough for the Welfare Class. Then you have the problem of that whatever the opinion polls say, you can knock off a few points because Sinn Fein folk never come out to Vote.

facehugger99

Transfer-toxicity is also a massive issue for them.

There's people who'd chop off their left nut before giving the Shinners even a low preference.

James Brown

Richard Hillman wrote: »

There is only so much vote that they can attain from the Lower Working Class and Welfare Classes. Unemployment is at 5.4% of which they have to compete with PBP/AAA for. Low earners, of which there are a lot, have a high percentage of Foreign workers who cannot vote.

Middle aged to Old People won't vote for them because of their past. They are not sexy enough for younger people like The Greens or SocDems. They are not Revolutionary enough for the Welfare Class. Then you have the problem of that whatever the opinion polls say, you can knock off a few points because Sinn Fein folk never come out to Vote.

This is true but as more working tax payers feel the bite of 'keeping the recovery going' I can see a shift and those numbers grow daily. We've already seen it come and go, could easily happen again. A lot of people can't reconcile the fact that they work and pay tax yet still need a state hand out or have it tough.

Loafing Oaf

Richard Hillman wrote: »

There is only so much vote that they can attain from the Lower Working Class and Welfare Classes. Unemployment is at 5.4% of which they have to compete with PBP/AAA for. Low earners, of which there are a lot, have a high percentage of Foreign workers who cannot vote.

Middle aged to Old People won't vote for them because of their past. They are not sexy enough for younger people like The Greens or SocDems. They are not Revolutionary enough for the Welfare Class. Then you have the problem of that whatever the opinion polls say, you can knock off a few points because Sinn Fein folk never come out to Vote.

While there is truth in all of this, most of it doesn't really explain why SF are going backwards now. If they were able to overcome these obstacles to win three Euro seats in 2014, with Lynn Boylan topping the poll in Dublin, why are they only barely clinging on to one in 2019? The most relevant bit in your post is the low unemployment level; the number of angry, radicalised, 'nothing left to lose' working class voters has fallen significantly, and as you imply the more militant among these will always go for PBP etc.

suicide_circus

Just as SF saw many of the victims of the Troubles as acceptable collateral damage in the war against the British, it's not inconceivable that the Irish public will come to see the death of SF in the same light, as an organisation that has served its purpose but whose time has past and should be consigned to history.

L1011

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Unemployment is at 5.4% of which they have to compete with PBP/AAA for.

4.4% now - very significant drop in April and a smaller one in May. Google gives Marchs's 5.4% when you search for some reason.