Wretched election for Sinn Féin - what now?

JohnnyFlash

I was listening to a podcast on the way back from the golf course this afternoon. They were discussing the disastrous election performance of SF - losing 2 of their 3 European Parliament; overall share of the vote dropping below 10%; representation more than halved in Dublin, losing 78 seats overall in the elections. It would be almost wipeout if the results were to be repeated in the General Elections.

So what next for Mary Lou and SF? Has the continued sexual abuse cover-ups damaged them? Are they missing the whiff of sulphur and semtex that men like Adams and McGuinness gave off? Is the incompetent shítshow up North a sign that they are nothing more than a party of megaphone diplomacy, with any real signs of leadership showing them up as the proverbial 'hurlers on the ditch'? Are they now a party ran by a South Dublin elite (O'Broin, McDonald etc) who don't have a clue what their core vote actually wants?

Kivaro

Apparently, according to the Sinn Fein analysis after the election, they were surprised by the electoral devastation. They said that they were not hearing negative sentiments at the door steps.
Their strategy going forward, according to this Sinn Fein official, is to make themselves appear less angry and less confrontational. "A kinder, gentler, Sinn Fein party". (My quote). I believe that they have to do a great deal more than that.

There are a number of reasons why voters are disenchanted with them. One, which is not being discussed by Sinn Fein, is their migration open door policy. Core Sinn Fein voters deserted the party due to this ludicrous policy. Many of their supporters are now competing with non-EU migrants for social welfare/housing/health resources. It just does not make sense.

mikemac2

Kivaro wrote: »

There are a number of reasons why voters are disenchanted with them. One, which is not being discussed by Sinn Fein, is their migration open door policy. Core Sinn Fein voters deserted the party due to this ludicrous policy. Many of their supporters are now competing with non-EU migrants for social welfare/housing/health resources. It just does not make sense.

But that policy isn’t new. 15 years ago they preached open borders and didn’t have these three disastrous elections in a row

Maybe it’s a reason sure but it’s not like the party suddenly brought it in when they changed leader

JohnnyFlash

Deleted User wrote: »

Wrong thread, Bart.

EmmetSpiceland

They currently look like a loosely affiliated group who have lost their purpose. The North is going to hell in a hand basket and they could have played a part in stopping that but their “protest” vote in the UK left the door open for the DUP to get centre stage. They probably would have won a tonne of support if they’d done something there.

Another major issue is the bullying that is rife within the party. I know a lad who would a staunch party supporter and he loves nothing more than to brush off all of the continuing reports as the actions of “malcontents” and “disgruntled” members. It’s disgusting.

I, for one, believe that the electorate no longer sees SF as a credible alternative anymore. Still too many of the “old guard” hanging around with direct links to terrorism and the new breed just seem to spout looney economic policies that could never actually work.

Then there’s the issue that the powers they represent are no longer really fighting for any freedom, or a United Ireland, just over drug dealing “territories” and other criminal enterprises. It’s an absolute shambles.

zimmermania

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I was listening to a podcast on the way back from the golf course this afternoon. They were discussing the disastrous election performance of SF - losing 2 of their 3 European Parliament; overall share of the vote dropping below 10%; representation more than halved in Dublin, losing 78 seats overall in the elections. It would be almost wipeout if the results were to be repeated in the General Elections.

So what next for Mary Lou and SF? Has the continued sexual abuse cover-ups damaged them? Are they missing the whiff of sulphur and semtex that men like Adams and McGuinness gave off? Is the incompetent shítshow up North a sign that they are nothing more than a party of megaphone diplomacy, with any real signs of leadership showing them up as the proverbial 'hurlers on the ditch'? Are they now a party ran by a South Dublin elite (O'Broin, McDonald etc) who don't have a clue what their core vote actually wants?

Maybe the collective lying about the average industrial wage made a lot of voters finally realise that a collective bunch of liars might not be fit to govern.

wiggle16

They would do better to look at who they lost out to in each area. I know it's a truism but the people who were elected were obviously offering voters something SF weren't. That's what it boils down to.

That and Mary-Lou's constant sense of outrage is wearing thin. She goes OTT over (relatively) "minor" issues, especially when addressing Varadkar in the Dáil, to the point where she can't act any more outraged when it comes to bigger issues.

Something I have noticed over the years is that Mary-Lou seems to rub women up the wrong way especially, I don't mean that to sound sexist but there seems to be something very unlikeable about her to women in particular. I don't think this has much to do with the result because it's not a new thing, but I live in her constituency and a lot of women I know can't stand her. And they wouldn't even be very politically minded.

I was never a SF supporter, but my indifference to them was cooling towards the end of Gerry's leadership. I was on the way to maybe giving them a vote some day in the near future. (Their local candidate in my area is actually decent and a doer tbf)

However, Mary Lou has just turned me against any notion of supporting them. I know a lot of opposition TDs do it, but Mary Lou speaks in sensationalist soundbytes way too much for my own tastes. Everything is a travesty, an outrage, deplorable, and while I do like politicians to be passionate, it's their actions more than their words I judge.

I don't know what SF are doing, and it's hard to tell what they actually stand for these days. My feelings have nothing to do with Mary Lou being a woman, just her being a very poor opposition leader.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Haven’t they become a bit sjw and socially liberal for their core vote

Water John

Daniel McConnell writes on them changing tack during the week. Going all soft and dropping the angst.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/columnists/daniel-mcconnell/surely-this-isnt-right-sinn-fein-going-all-fluffy-and-light-932259.html

wiggle16

Deleted User wrote: »

My feelings have nothing to do with Mary Lou being a woman, just her being a very poor opposition leader.

If that was with reference to my post, then just to be clear, I'm not saying it's because she's a woman that she is like this. It was more of an observation that in my experience she doesn't seem to be popular with women, for whatever reason. Just something I've noticed and it might not be of any consequence in the grand scheme of things.

But I completely agree with the rest of your post. I remember thinking at the time that she behaved very poorly at the PAC with Angela Kerins, rightly or wrongly, and she seems to have stayed in that gear up until now.

i dont think pearse doherty as their finance guy has hurt them enough tbh, because he knows slightly more about economics and finance than the guy on the street.

thats a bad reflection of the guy on the street.

a loose affiliation of permanently outraged moaners who might be moving away from the cordite but are also consequently without an iota of achievement themselves.

their priorities as shown by actions where they have power are keeping the housing situation where it is

their priorities as shown by words couldnt be further from those of the working class

they peaked as a result of a one-off confluence of gerry/martin approval when the north was working out while at the same time ff died a death here

theyve none of that now and the likes of o'broin terrifies most voters.


mary lou novelty is gone years ago. people dont want thickheaded sledging in the dail and she has offered nothing else.

back down toward 12% id say and no harm

JohnnyFlash

There's a limited appeal in the politics of berating people, while offering little more than bland soundbites and populist 'solutions' in return. That's one of the issues that is easily identified. It appeals to a small coterie of malcontents and ne'er do wells - most of them found holding fort on places like twitter and the journal giving out about everything; while failing to recognise they live in one of the last bastions of social democracy. The 'seen and done' merchants. It doesn't pass muster with the sort of people who contribute most to the coffers of the State.

I also think that some of the appeal of SF to these sorts was the sense of danger and thuggery off the party. That much of the machinations of the party were carried out in smokey rooms in the back of pubs in Belfast. Now it's a party with figureheads (Eoin Ó Broin, Mary Lou McDonald for example) who grew up in enormous privilege in Dublin, and who dictate policy like they are speaking to a crowd of famished proles.

Oh, and Mary Lou has a voice like a fúcking foghorn amplified through a megaphone.

wiggle16

wiggle16 wrote: »

If that was with reference to my post, then just to be clear, I'm not saying it's because she's a woman that she is like this. It was more of an observation that in my experience she doesn't seem to be popular with women, for whatever reason. Just something I've noticed and it might not be of any consequence in the grand scheme of things.

But I completely agree with the rest of your post. I remember thinking at the time that she behaved very poorly at the PAC with Angela Kerins, rightly or wrongly, and she seems to have stayed in that gear up until now.

Oh no it wasn't at all. I actually made my own post without having a decent read of others first. I was merely pre-empting any response which might suggest that's why I don't like Mary Lou.

I love women, my own mother is one.

Loafing Oaf

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Haven’t they become a bit sjw and socially liberal for their core vote

The 'core vote' that amounted to 1-2% of the electorate up to 2002? Is the Lynn Boylan who lost her Euro seat in 2019 any more 'SJW/socially liberal' than the one who topped the poll in Dublin in 2014?

Boggles

Kivaro wrote: »

is their migration open door policy.

3 posts in, is that a record?

Annasopra

I think that there are various reasons for Sinn Feins poor performance

1 upto now has always benefited from an angry electorate. The electorate in 2009, 2011, 2014, 2016 was angry; angry at unemployment, angry at pension fund losses, angry at the economic crash, angry at austerity, angry at water charges. This time out - overall the anger wasnt there; there is a small amount of anger about housing but nothing like what water charges was. The working class estates where this anger manifested mostly simply didnt come out to vote.

2 A lot of their former councillors who left for reasons of bullying ran as independents and won seats. They didnt lose 78 council seats overnight. They lost about 20 or 30 since 2014

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

The 'core vote' that amounted to 1-2% of the electorate up to 2002? Is the Lynn Boylan who lost her Euro seat in 2019 any more 'SJW/socially liberal' than the one who topped the poll in Dublin in 2014?

The 1-2% obviously isn’t the modern post financial crash of 2008 vote.

The question is why they fell recently.

blanch152

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

I think that there are various reasons for Sinn Feins poor performance

1 upto now has always benefited from an angry electorate. The electorate in 2009, 2011, 2014, 2016 was angry; angry at unemployment, angry at pension fund losses, angry at the economic crash, angry at austerity, angry at water charges. This time out - overall the anger wasnt there; there is a small amount of anger about housing but nothing like what water charges was. The working class estates where this anger manifested mostly simply didnt come out to vote.

2 A lot of their former councillors who left for reasons of bullying ran as independents and won seats. They didnt lose 78 council seats overnight. They lost about 20 or 30 since 2014

That's a pretty accurate summation.

It is compounded by the perception that they are always against everything, that there isn't a single positive proposal in what they are saying. Their taxation policy looks like an attempt to tax rainbows, unicorns and other difficult targets. That means that they can't credibly explain how they will fund the billions needed for their spending promises to fix every problem that people complain about.

A policy of build more social housing for example, needs to be explained by where is the money coming from, the land, the construction workers, etc. but also how it will deliver more quickly and better than the existing solutions being put in place. That absence of detail makes them look amateur.

Loafing Oaf

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

The 1-2% obviously isn’t the modern post financial crash of 2008 vote.

The question is why they fell recently.

And your answer to that question is an excess of social liberalism. And I'm asking are they any more socially liberal now than when they were on the up five or ten years ago. Also, is there any solid evidence that that sort of politics is a turn-off for the 'angry working classes' I presume you're identifying as their core vote.

Kivaro

mikemac2 wrote: »

But that policy isn’t new. 15 years ago they preached open borders and didn’t have these three disastrous elections in a row

Maybe it’s a reason sure but it’s not like the party suddenly brought it in when they changed leader

They've preached open borders for a lot longer than 15 years, but it's only recently that the de facto open border situation that we have in this country is now affecting Sinn Fein voters e.g. look at the situation of non-EU economic migrants on the housing list in Dublin. 20% of the "homeless" families in Dublin are coming from places like Africa and Pakistan, and they are competing with locals for the limited social housing in the region. Families flying into Dublin and immediately declaring themselves homeless because they know that they will get one of the free homes that the Irish worker is paying Billions to build is wrong on so many levels.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

And your answer to that question is an excess of social liberalism. And I'm asking are they any more socially liberal now than when they were on the up five or ten years ago. Also, is there any solid evidence that that sort of politics is a turn-off for the 'angry working classes' I presume you're identifying as their core vote.

That wasn’t “my answer”. It was a question.

And yes they are. On abortion etc. SF used to have no policy now it’s a party whip pro abortion. Lots left after that.

And no, I’m not a core voter.

EmmetSpiceland

wiggle16 wrote: »

That and Mary-Lou's constant sense of outrage is wearing thin. She goes OTT over (relatively) "minor" issues, especially when addressing Varadkar in the Dáil, to the point where she can't act any more outraged when it comes to bigger issues.

She’s started to come across as a mithered old crone at this stage. And she couldn’t be more than 50, right?

JohnnyFlash

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

She’s started to come across as a mithered old crone at this stage. And she couldn’t be more than 50, right?

She never comes across well on the radio - her tendency to talk down at people emerges within seconds. You’d have to wonder if their decision to force a presidential election was a wise one as well. Lot of huge missteps at the moment. A party in crisis.

ohnonotgmail

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

She’s started to come across as a mithered old crone at this stage. And she couldn’t be more than 50, right?

Only just turned 50. She does come across as very condescending. A poor choice for leader.

McMurphy

Ah, just spotted this thread.

We are in a sorry state of affairs politically these day's.

Local level - we have SF who performed woefully in the elections.

Labour are still a zombie party.

FF (who FG keep reminding us wrecked the place) have FG by the short and curlies - FG not even allowed to turn a sweet in their mouths with out FF giving them permission to do so.

FG have recently been exposed as a crowd who seem to be fond of spurious insurance claims, despite knowing the same compo culture has been responsible for decimating lots of small and medium businesses due to crippling insurance premiums (ditto for private individuals and their car premium's)

Now it appears Leo, fresh after launching a report to establish the finer details of Ms Bailey's insurance claim (and if Josepha Madigan had any input or involvement in same) the bloody report seems to have evolved into who leaked the story, rather than the story itself. This is despite Leo recently launching a campaign encouraging people to "leak" info on people they suspect of playing the system within our social welfare services.

Bit hypocritical of you Leo, if I do say so.

It's like they learned absolutely nothing from Maurice McCabe, as they seem to want to bury the story and root out the whistleblower as opposed to deal with the story itself and root out what looks like corruption and fraud.

I tell ye, the whole of place has gone to hell in a handcart.

Jupiter Mulligan

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Ah, just spotted this thread.

We are in a sorry state of affairs politically these day's.

Local level - we have SF who performed woefully in the elections.

Labour are still a zombie party.

FF (who FG keep reminding us wrecked the place) have FG by the short and curlies - FG not even allowed to turn a sweet in their mouths with out FF giving them permission to do so.

FG have recently been exposed as a crowd who seem to be fine of spurious insurance claims, despite knowing the same compo culture has been responsible for decimating lots of small and medium businesses due to crippling insurance premiums (ditto for private individuals and their car premium's)

Now it appears Leo, fresh after launching a report to establish the finer details of Ms Bailey's insurance claim (and if Josepha Madigan had any input or involvement in same) the bloody report seems to have evolved into who leaked the story, rather than the story itself. This is despite Leo recently launching a campaign encouraging people to "leak" info on people they suspect of playing the system within our social welfare services.

Bit hypocritical of you Leo, if I do say so.

It's like they learned absolutely nothing from Maurice McCabe, as they seem to want to bury the story and root out the whistleblower as opposed to deal with the story itself and root out what looks like corruption and fraud.

I tell ye, the whole of place has gone to hell in a handcart.

Perhaps it's time that the Roman Catholic Church was brought back into the fold and asked to run the country properly. That would get rid of all this LBGT+ and Global Warming nonsense for starters. And Zapper would be sent to a Magdalene Laundry to reflect on her sins.

ohnonotgmail

Jupiter Mulligan wrote: »

Perhaps it's time that the Roman Catholic Church was brought back into the fold and asked to run the country properly. That would get rid of all this LBGT+ and Global Warming nonsense for starters. And Zapper would be sent to a Magdalene Laundry to reflect on her sins.

:rolleyes:

McMurphy

Jupiter Mulligan wrote: »

Evidently it's time that the Roman Catholic Church was brought back into the fold and asked to run the country properly.

We certainly seem to be incapable of governing ourselves anyway.

We just swap one bunch of chancing gougers for another in s revolving door system, with one crowd crowing about how rotten, corrupt and crooked the other are, until those at the helms are caught with their pants (or knickers) down.

amcalester

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Ah, just spotted this thread.

We are in a sorry state of affairs politically these day's.

Local level - we have SF who performed woefully in the elections.

Labour are still a zombie party.

FF (who FG keep reminding us wrecked the place) have FG by the short and curlies - FG not even allowed to turn a sweet in their mouths with out FF giving them permission to do so.

FG have recently been exposed as a crowd who seem to be fond of spurious insurance claims, despite knowing the same compo culture has been responsible for decimating lots of small and medium businesses due to crippling insurance premiums (ditto for private individuals and their car premium's)

Now it appears Leo, fresh after launching a report to establish the finer details of Ms Bailey's insurance claim (and if Josepha Madigan had any input or involvement in same) the bloody report seems to have evolved into who leaked the story, rather than the story itself. This is despite Leo recently launching a campaign encouraging people to "leak" info on people they suspect of playing the system within our social welfare services.

Bit hypocritical of you Leo, if I do say so.

It's like they learned absolutely nothing from Maurice McCabe, as they seem to want to bury the story and root out the whistleblower as opposed to deal with the story itself and root out what looks like corruption and fraud.

I tell ye, the whole of place has gone to hell in a handcart.

Reads post, checks thread title, reads post again. Still can't see the relevance.