Wretched election for Sinn Féin - what now?

JohnnyFlash

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

It’s “The Cause” the SF lot are mad about.

You don’t get as many of those lads coming into the pub shaking a bucket and looking to raise money ‘for the cause’. They were usually little stumpy Nordie lads with tattoos and wearing a fake leather jacket

Fan of Netflix

Berserker wrote: »

Strange that nobody mentioned their pro-choice stance. I know a person who canvasses for SF and the die-hard OAP voters brought it up at the door time and time again. SSM seemed bearable but abortion was a step too far. That along with the oversaturation of candidates on the hard left, was their downfall, in his mind.

This is a very good point, one which the Mary Lou and abortion cheerleaders refuse to accept. Aontu wouldn't even exist only for Mary Lou and co.

James Brown

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

It’s “The Cause” the SF lot are mad about.

I think Enda Kenny tried to co-opt the United Ireland thing. SF don't own the wish for a United Ireland. Never have. As for any conflict, SF took part in the GFA so an odd way to keep pushing that one.

Fan of Netflix

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

You don’t get as many of those lads coming into the pub shaking a bucket and looking to raise money ‘for the cause’. They were usually little stumpy Nordie lads with tattoos and wearing a fake leather jacket

Them lads have probably given up. Why would they listen to the likes of D4 Mary Lou rabbit on about period poverty and other transgender nonsense.Sure she was in Fianna Fail before the GFA! Some republican soldier she is lol

James Brown

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Them lads have probably given up. Why would they listen to the likes of D4 Mary Lou rabbit on about period poverty and other transgender nonsense.Sure she was in Fianna Fail before the GFA! Some republican soldier she is lol

So would you prefer a more militaristic party, is that why you don't vote SF, too peaceful?

Berserker

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

You don’t get as many of those lads coming into the pub shaking a bucket and looking to raise money ‘for the cause’. They were usually little stumpy Nordie lads with tattoos and wearing a fake leather jacket

Would have thought that those lads are the ones who are behind the likes of Saraodh sp? etc?

Loafing Oaf

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Eh? These were the guys who were voting for Sinn Fein long before they increased their votes in the Dail. The guys who didn't care about their IRA ties even supported them. The traditional core voters. Many of those are the ones who have given up. Sure look at their canvassing these days, it's a mess as the old school lads have packed it in. These younger women they tried to attract don't bother with that sort of stuff.

Their traditional core voters when they had 1 or 2% of the vote? And you reckon it's vast swathes of these guys suddenly deciding to stop supporting the party that's reponsible for their reversal at the latest elections. Whereas they were fine with the way the party was five or ten years ago when there were absolutely no middle-class feminists involved?

Dyr

They had temporarily reigned the open borders thing in for a while after the citizenship referendum bite them on the hole

They were managing to ride two horses at once, and to mix analogies but the tide has gone out on that plan, A lot of their core vote will no longer tolerate virtue signalling middle class liberals whose views on Nationalism are like Jeremy Corbyns views on the EU.

They pissed their own voters off, they pissed their own rank and file off and never got the votes of the people they targeted, mostly because the new guard they parachuted in come across as an awful shower of cribbers and moaners, as Bertie would say

I have a feeling the lads in the north will be wondering if its time that the Dublin office and in particular McDonald and O'Broin were called ashore.

Fan of Netflix

Berserker wrote: »

Would have thought that those lads are the ones who are behind the likes of Saraodh sp? etc?

Some of em would be in Saoradh now. The other disso groups are pretty small but they got a few. Eirigi was another group that was mainly ex Sinn Fein. RSF was another mainly old lads but its very small now maybe 50 to 100. Theres actually a lot of ex SF in Irexit and the National Party also. A lot of younger men. And of course Aontu. And then many who gave up politics altogether.

When add all them up its a lot for one party to lose. Also a lot of those fellas were to type that would canvass and do protests etc. The liberal younger types they have now just make hashtags on twitter dont go out in the rain and knock on doors.

Fan of Netflix

Another reason you know Sinn Fein are finished is the shinnerbots are no more. Years ago a thread like this, or anything on the Irish political sphere online would be swamped with Shinners. Now what you get is a lot of right wing anti immigration stuff replacing it. Sinn Feins immigration policy is the opposite.

James Brown

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Some of em would be in Saoradh now. The other disso groups are pretty small but they got a few. Eirigi was another group that was mainly ex Sinn Fein. RSF was another mainly old lads but its very small now maybe 50 to 100. Theres actually a lot of ex SF in Irexit and the National Party also. A lot of younger men. And of course Aontu. And then many who gave up politics altogether.

When add all them up its a lot for one party to lose. Also a lot of those fellas were to type that would canvass and do protests etc. The liberal younger types they have now just make hashtags on twitter dont go out in the rain and knock on doors.

One 'Disso' who campaigned against the GFA was made a Senator by Lab/FG, but I expect that's different.

Fan of Netflix

Matt Barrett wrote: »

One 'Disso' who campaigned against the GFA was made a Senator by Lab/FG, but I expect that's different.

I wouldn't have much time for her and I think FG Lab embarrassed themselves there.

Loafing Oaf

Bambi wrote: »

They had temporarily reigned the open borders thing in for a while after the citizenship referendum bite them on the hole

They were managing to ride two horses at once, and to mix analogies but the tide has gone out on that plan, A lot of their core vote will no longer tolerate virtue signalling middle class liberals

Whereas they were fine with them in 2014 when Lynn Boylan was topping the poll in the Euro elections. Still not making sense to me that a whole load of SF supporters would suddenly decide in 2019 that they don't like a policy direction that the party has been traveling in for the last 15 or 20 years, during which time the party grew its support exponentially.

Dyr

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Whereas they were fine with them in 2014 when Lynn Boylan was topping the poll in the Euro elections. Still not making sense to me that a whole load of SF supporters would suddenly decide in 2019 that they don't like a policy direction that the party has been traveling in for the last 15 or 20 years, during which time the party grew its support exponentially.

It doesn't make sense to you because you don't understand it

Boylan was an unknown to the voters, she was elected on a SF ticket as was the likes of O'Broin, they've spent the intervening years hitching SF firmly to the SJW bandwagon as it trundled straight towards the cliff edge that it has now gone over.

Issues that were once only footnotes in their manifesto are now major fissures across Europe and SF are on the other side of the divide to their voters. The response from the battalion of parachutist TDs and councillors was to double down rather than row back on the rhetoric. Good luck with that lads

Kivaro

Bambi wrote: »

It doesn't make sense to you because you don't understand it

Boylan was an unknown to the voters, she was elected on a SF ticket as was the likes of O'Broin, they've spent the intervening years hitching SF firmly to the SJW bandwagon as it trundled straight towards the cliff edge that it has now gone over.

Issues that were once only footnotes in their manifesto are now major fissures across Europe and SF are on the other side of the divide to their voters. The response from the battalion of parachutist TDs and councillors was to double down rather than row back on the rhetoric. Good luck with that lads

Good post.
This is it in a nutshell.

Sinn Fein would be a good alternative for many to the usual abhorrent choices for government, if only they did not go over that cliff.
Listening to Pearse Doherty on the Tonight Show last night proved this point. The debate was about the requirement to borrow many billions of Euros if there is a disorderly Brexit. What did Pearse repeatedly mention in this debate? The €300 Million required for the 2019 welfare Christmas bonus. I thought I had misheard him until he repeated it 3 times.

Public Service announcement to Pearse and Sinn Fein: Stop focusing on social welfare voters. The work-shy will not actually take the time to visit the voting booths in order to vote for you.

_blaaz

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Their traditional core voters when they had 1 or 2% of the vote? And you reckon it's vast swathes of these guys suddenly deciding to stop supporting the party that's reponsible for their reversal at the latest elections. Whereas they were fine with the way the party was five or ten years ago when there were absolutely no middle-class feminists involved?

The rise of saoradh and brexit has caused alot of older core voters to cool on SF (think people talking about SF concentrating on transgender are over blowing it....when have they ever issued a press release in relation to this)


SF have sold a generation of republicans the gfa and concept of consent....but brexit has shown the british are trustworthy enough to be trusted to call an border poll


Saoradh while being absentionist and not running canditadates are building a massive presense and have leadership that have sown up old mistrusts and divisions....

There wont be anywhere near levels of splits amoung dissidents going forward compared to way they used to be and theyve gone above and beyond to distance emselves from.criminality....lads who would never have associated emselves with dissidents are willing to side with saoradh now



(Also large portion of more clued in voters,wont vote for party thatll go in with FG/FF,instead preferring to push a left/right split,which long term would be beneficial to everyone)

EmmetSpiceland

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Another reason you know Sinn Fein are finished is the shinnerbots are no more. Years ago a thread like this, or anything on the Irish political sphere online would be swamped with Shinners. Now what you get is a lot of right wing anti immigration stuff replacing it. Sinn Feins immigration policy is the opposite.

Ah there’s a few “old soldiers” still knocking about. You see them desperately trying to make mountains out of every little anti-government mole hill. It’s pretty embarrassing at this stage.

atticu

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Whereas they were fine with them in 2014 when Lynn Boylan was topping the poll in the Euro elections. Still not making sense to me that a whole load of SF supporters would suddenly decide in 2019 that they don't like a policy direction that the party has been traveling in for the last 15 or 20 years, during which time the party grew its support exponentially.

You are using the word exponentially incorrectly.

They would be the party in power now if their support had grown exponentially.

atticu

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Ah, just spotted this thread.

We are in a sorry state of affairs politically these day's.

Local level - we have SF who performed woefully in the elections.

Labour are still a zombie party.

FF (who FG keep reminding us wrecked the place) have FG by the short and curlies - FG not even allowed to turn a sweet in their mouths with out FF giving them permission to do so.

FG have recently been exposed as a crowd who seem to be fond of spurious insurance claims, despite knowing the same compo culture has been responsible for decimating lots of small and medium businesses due to crippling insurance premiums (ditto for private individuals and their car premium's)

Now it appears Leo, fresh after launching a report to establish the finer details of Ms Bailey's insurance claim (and if Josepha Madigan had any input or involvement in same) the bloody report seems to have evolved into who leaked the story, rather than the story itself. This is despite Leo recently launching a campaign encouraging people to "leak" info on people they suspect of playing the system within our social welfare services.

Bit hypocritical of you Leo, if I do say so.

It's like they learned absolutely nothing from Maurice McCabe, as they seem to want to bury the story and root out the whistleblower as opposed to deal with the story itself and root out what looks like corruption and fraud.

I tell ye, the whole of place has gone to hell in a handcart.

I have to agree with a lot of what you posted.

SF have gone to the Dogs, so it is best to leave them be.

It is high time we expect more from the ruling party, and made them stronger before the next elections. I agree that they are the only hope of leading us successfully through the Brexit negotiations (and I agree that there is no better man than Leo to do this).

You are correct, once they have sorted out a few little issues within the party, they will be much stronger, and appeal to more voters.

Like you, I think that FG will do very well in the next election, with Leo in charge.

James Brown

I think the point is any hard core supporters leaving SF, who populated that single digit following they've had solidly in recent years wouldn't be enough to explain the rise or fall of their support. They obviously got a lot of new support and much of that fell away recently. It wasn't old school SF made or broke them as was suggested.
They are much healthier than Labour and as I've said when people are looking for an alternative to FG/FF they'll be there, or, they haven't gone away you know

Atoms for Peace

The very poor calibre of canvassers calling to the door doesn't help their cause

Gael23

I thought the knives would be out for Mary Lou by now

JohnnyFlash

Gael23 wrote: »

I thought the knives would be out for Mary Lou by now

They’ll probably wait until after the election and make Matt Carthy the leader when he gets his seat in the Dáil. They’ve very little talent in the ranks at the moment. The Belfast ‘backroom’ management are pulling the strings now.

Dyr

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

They’ll probably wait until after the election and make Matt Carthy the leader when he gets his seat in the Dáil. They’ve very little talent in the ranks at the moment. The Belfast ‘backroom’ management are pulling the strings now.

Carthy is no great shakes, not the quickest of the mark that lad.

JohnnyFlash

Bambi wrote: »

Carthy is no great shakes, not the quickest of the mark that lad.

He’s young though, and has an accent that is probably more appealing to the voter base. There’s a bit of an Alan Kelly vibe off him though.

Kivaro

Kivaro wrote: »

Good post.
This is it in a nutshell.

Sinn Fein would be a good alternative for many to the usual abhorrent choices for government, if only they did not go over that cliff.
Listening to Pearse Doherty on the Tonight Show last night proved this point. The debate was about the requirement to borrow many billions of Euros if there is a disorderly Brexit. What did Pearse repeatedly mention in this debate? The €300 Million required for the 2019 welfare Christmas bonus. I thought I had misheard him until he repeated it 3 times.

Public Service announcement to Pearse and Sinn Fein: Stop focusing on social welfare voters. The work-shy will not actually take the time to visit the voting booths in order to vote for you.

Very decent point, and I say that as somebody who thinks Pearse's Seanad speech in 2010 was the finest speech in Irish politics in many generations. He really captured the feelings of so many of us. It was a complete breath of fresh air.

However, first, SF badly need to redefine what "rich" is in Ireland, and in the world, in 2019 and who the "rich" are. It's not the middle classes, and it's not people in Dublin on €100,000 gross per year but who have to pay €2500 nett per month in childcare and the same again nett in mortgage payments. After a marginal rate of tax of between 50% and 60%, where the marginal rate starts on everything over €35,300, it is offensive for them to treat such people as "the rich". There's so empathy for people in the middle who are smothered in bills and insurance policies on every side. They're, it seems, "the rich". Those people. Over there. There's not even a radical coordinated campaign against something as massively corrupt and rigged as the insurance industry in Ireland. Why? Because, well, when your target is the welfare class vote, paying insurance is not going to be much of an issue for them. And Labour, FF or the Blueshirts just don't do radical campaigns. SF could tap into a middle class anger, but nah.

I can honestly say I've never heard an economic policy from SF which would appeal to me. It's like they're going on a class war against people whom they should be trying to incorporate into a left-of-centre alternative to the smoked salmon socialists in Labour. But no, SF wants to be the welfare party and condemn itself never to grow. So, for those of us who were sold out by Labour and are still sick of the memory of John O'Donoghue in all his ethical ugliness, the Galway tent and the rest of the crooks to return home to FF, it's like that scene in Schindler's List where the Jews leave the concentration camp at the end of WWII and the soldiers tell them pointing west, "Don't go there; they hate you" and pointing east, "Don't go there either; they hate you, too". Where is the political party for the squeezed middle?

Socially their proposal to, for instance, make 25% of all properties in the Glass Bottle site in Ringsend social housing stood out for me for how they put party political gain above the good of society. They were no different to the Blueshirts looking after the big law firms by not implementing law reform. Most people can understand why it's a good idea to spread out people who lack ambition across many areas of society's housing. Otherwise, well,... Ballymun. But there were more votes for SF so they advocated making 25% of housing social housing, regardless of whether 25% will be able to undermine the whole area more than the legislated for 10% social housing. Short-term. Populist. Opportunistic. Other than reunification, they have no serious vision for their party that will include the left-of-centre middle class vote.

amcalester

Gael23 wrote: »

I thought the knives would be out for Mary Lou by now

Not until after a GE, anyone with leadership ambitions will think their seat is safe so best to let ML take the lead into the GE and if SF perform poorly she can be encouraged to step down for the good of the party.

If there's a heave before the GE and SF still perform poorly then that'll reflect badly on the new leader, and there's not much time to actually implement much change. The election will probably be in less than a year.

Dyr

amcalester wrote: »

Not until after a GE, anyone with leadership ambitions will think their seat is safe so best to let ML take the lead into the GE and if SF perform poorly she can be encouraged to step down for the good of the party.

If there's a heave before the GE and SF still perform poorly then that'll reflect badly on the new leader, and there's not much time to actually implement much change. The election will probably be in less than a year.

Given their performance in the GE McDOnalds would not be guaranteed to survive a GE

amcalester

Bambi wrote: »

Given their performance in the GE McDOnalds would not be guaranteed to survive a GE

What GE?

Dyr

amcalester wrote: »

What GE?

Meant LE