Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Even if she were to retire today, such is their close relationship, von der Leyen would continue to consult her on all important matters.

A lot more than that. Merkel has the ear of everyone who matters.

And they listen.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He was never my Mayor. I've not been here long enough to have voted for any Mayor of London.

Johnson only has Churchillian qualities in his imagination. He can surround himself with sycophants all he wants but this won't change fantasy into reality.

I was being facetious when comparing Churchill and Johnson. Churchill had his faults but he was intelligent, charismatic and wily. Johnson simply doesn't have the character to be PM. At best, his portrayal of himself as an affable buffoon gives him a thin veneer of charisma. Beneath this veneer is an utterly incapable wannabe who depends on populism. I expect his lack of leadership and character to be exposed very quickly and he will then either resign or move to an even more populist Trumpian stance.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I was being facetious when comparing Churchill and Johnson. Churchill had his faults but he was intelligent, charismatic and wily. Johnson simply doesn't have the character to be PM. At best, his portrayal of himself as an affable buffoon gives him a thin veneer of charisma. Beneath this veneer is an utterly incapable wannabe who depends on populism. I expect his lack of leadership and character to be exposed very quickly and he will then either resign or move to an even more populist Trumpian stance.

If Johnson had pushed for Remain, he could have used his persona to present himself as the next Ken Clarke, ie a Tory who centrists and centre-lefties can justify voting for. Instead, he just started spewing populism and alienated himself from the next generation.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If Johnson had pushed for Remain, he could have used his persona to present himself as the next Ken Clarke, ie a Tory who centrists and centre-lefties can justify voting for. Instead, he just started spewing populism and alienated himself from the next generation.

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

It was reported that he had prepared arguments for both Remain and Brexit. I don't know what influenced his decision. Maybe he tossed a coin

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

I think it's the power grab. Remember the two Telegraph articles? The remain piece very much exhibits a grumbling tone about the importance of the single market whereas the leave piece is much more enthusiastic about the buccaneering global Britain fantastic nonsense. From this, I've concluded that he's at the very least a soft leaver whose main objective was No. 10.

MrMusician18

First Up wrote: »

It was reported that he had prepared arguments for both Remain and Brexit. I don't know what influenced his decision. Maybe he tossed a coin

Some have speculated that backing leave, whether or not it won in the referendum, was the easiest way to No. 10.

Johnson recognised two important facts about the modern day Tory Party. That leavers in the party were much more organized and driven than the centerists/remainers and that the party in the shires was strongly eurosceptic.

As a strategy, it was quite cunning and while he may play fast and loose with detail he is obviously a man of intelligence. It's just a shame he's put all his effort and intelligence into achieving his personal ambition, rather than the greater good.

VinLieger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

He honestly believes himself to be in the same vein of "Great Leaders of Britian" as Churchill and if only he were given the chance he could prove this to everyone and stop being seen as the blustering buffoon.

I really do believe part of what drives him is he wants to go down in the history books as having saved Britian from ruin regardless of the fact that he might have been responsible for driving it to ruin in the first place.

I think in that sense he is classically English in that the victors write the history books and as has been discussed a plenty during this whole debacle most British people really learn only of the victories of the empire and not the horrors so he believes that if he succeeds similarly all his foul deeds will also be forgotten.

Stop moaning ffs

The delusion and raw foolish ambition isn’t just in his head though.
It’s in all that ran to replace TM.
There’s something profoundly wrong with anyone who would want to take on the mantle of PM in the face of such an impossible situation. And they all claimed they each had the solution.
That’s next level arrogance and narcissistic behaviour.
He just happens to be best at it.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

He may have written two articles but that is not due to him not being fully committed to Brexit, but probably because he was calculating what was the shortest route to No.10. If you look at his past writings and all the stories he made up about the EU I think it is fair to assume that he has a genuine dislike for the EU.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The delusion and raw foolish ambition isn’t just in his head though.
It’s in all that ran to replace TM.
There’s something profoundly wrong with anyone who would want to take on the mantle of PM in the face of such an impossible situation. And they all claimed they each had the solution.
That’s next level arrogance and narcissistic behaviour.
He just happens to be best at it.

Exactly. The fact that he has emerged as the leader says more about the Tory party membership than it does about the other contenders.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

He may have written two articles but that is not due to him not being fully committed to Brexit, but probably because he was calculating what was the shortest route to No.10. If you look at his past writings and all the stories he made up about the EU I think it is fair to assume that he has a genuine dislike for the EU.

It will be very interesting to see which way he tacks once elected. The Tories are now hopelessly divided on Brexit. Does he harden his position to attract Tories who have migrated to the Brexit party thus further alienating remainer and soft Brexiter MPs? Or does he tack to the middle ground and try to attract people away from a fragmented Labour while retaining moderate Tory MPs. Either way, he has a choice to make pretty damn soon.

listermint

Enzokk wrote: »

He may have written two articles but that is not due to him not being fully committed to Brexit, but probably because he was calculating what was the shortest route to No.10. If you look at his past writings and all the stories he made up about the EU I think it is fair to assume that he has a genuine dislike for the EU.

Im not convinced he has a genuine dislike for anything. Johnson would have to have the ability to retain single line thoughts in his head long enough to generate a dislike for something. He pretty much (like trump) lives in the moment fleeting from the last thing to come out of his mouth to the next. Mainly to generate interest in himself and have a laugh. His hole existence is like a little circular game in his head. And on to the next conversation.

MrMusician18

listermint wrote: »

Im not convinced he has a genuine dislike for anything. Johnson would have to have the ability to retain single line thoughts in his head long enough to generate a dislike for something. He pretty much (like trump) lives in the moment fleeting from the last thing to come out of his mouth to the next. Mainly to generate interest in himself and have a laugh. His hole existence is like a little circular game in his head. And on to the next conversation.

Bumbling blustering Boris Johnson is an act. Even "Boris" is just a persona, his close family and friends call him "Al". Sometimes you see the persona break down when he grins as he's caught out by an interviewer.

He is no fool, he's an intelligent, shrewd, calculating, ambitious man that will stop at nothing to feed his ego.

Leroy42

Shrewd, calculating and ambitious I agree with.

Intelligent? Not sure there is any evidence of that. Not knowing his brief, not being able to make more than summary arguments, not being able to debate.

Professor Moriarty

The pound has hit a two year low primarily as a result of the No Deal rhetoric in the Johnson/Hunt race. Not that they give a damn.

Stop moaning ffs

Getting to PM is probably his life’s mission. By any and all means necessary. Even facing such a disaster. He can then lie and blame everyone else on his inability to find a way out for Britain.
It’ll be a no confidence vote within minutes come the 31st so he won’t have the job all that long.

leitrim4life

Leroy42 wrote: »

Shrewd, calculating and ambitious I agree with.

Intelligent? Not sure there is any evidence of that. Not knowing his brief, not being able to make more than summary arguments, not being able to debate.

You don't win a KS to eton by being slow.no amount of pull gets you a KS, that's the whole point of them.

MrMusician18

Leroy42 wrote: »

Shrewd, calculating and ambitious I agree with.

Intelligent? Not sure there is any evidence of that. Not knowing his brief, not being able to make more than summary arguments, not being able to debate.

Lazy, yes, no eye for detail, yes (only when he isn't in the firing line) but he is clearly no fool.

You couldn't be a fool and act with the tactical nous that he has had in order to to progress his career (especially in the last 10 years). He's a man not to be underestimated.

Shelga

What date is the winner of the leadership contest officially announced? And when does he officially become PM?

Will the HoC vote no confidence in the government as soon as Boris is in power, in order to force a GE? I can’t see any other route through this.

FrancieBrady

Shelga wrote: »

What date is the winner of the leadership contest officially announced? And when does he officially become PM?

Will the HoC vote no confidence in the government as soon as Boris is in power, in order to force a GE? I can’t see any other route through this.

The pressures on MP's that saw to it that May survived (votes and seats) and have increased exponentially.

Will they sacrifice party and possibly seat? There are certainly some with integrity but I wouldn't be so sure a 'no confidence' vote would get by at this stage.

J Mysterio

Can Corbyn please be turfed out on his arse? The man is doing the square root of feck all to challenge this Tory farce. His leadership is apalling. As I have said many times, it would seem he would be best suited to being the head of a Village Green Preservation Society. He is just a big ball of righteous indignation with not much else there - his gist reminds me of the type of ideological certainty that a child has when they hit their teenage years, but then grow out of when they realise the world is a little complicated and things take time and effort.

I really don't know all that much about Tom Watson, but I like what he is saying.

"By caving to the charade of a no deal Brexit, the Tories turn their back on our closest allies, on peace in NI, on the union with Scotland and Wales, on jobs and our economy. They are the party of Little England. Our great country has never stood so small."

https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1151085311260340224

If there has to be an extension, and this sh1te is going to rumble on, can we have a showdown GE and put this to bed?
Watson Labour for Remain VS Johnson Tories for Brexit?

Water John

Hasn't May to recommend Johnson as the next PM to the Queen, assured that he can command a majority in the HOC?
If some Tory MPs let May know that they won't support him, what does she do?
This seems to me to be the first hurdle. If she then goes ahead and recommends Johnson to the Queen, she is open to a constitutional challenge.

J Mysterio

Would be great if a few Tories would resign or something to force a GE.

As had been shrewdly pointed out by Mr. Nice Guy, the latest commitment to no Backstop by Johnson/ Hunt may well have been insisted on by the DUP, despite what Donaldson has been saying.

Stop moaning ffs

J Mysterio wrote: »

Would be great if a few Tories would resign or something to force a GE.

As had been shrewdly pointed out by Mr. Nice Guy, the latest commitment to no Backstop by Johnson/ Hunt may well have been insisted on by the DUP, despite what Donaldson has been saying.

Dominic grieve on LBC earlier saying multiple factions working to block no deal including House of Lords? And they’ll come allow no confidence if necessary to bring about election

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Dominic grieve on LBC earlier saying multiple factions working to block no deal including House of Lords? And they’ll come allow no confidence if necessary to bring about election

That's Johnson's escape hatch. Bloody Remoaners foiling my No Deal plans. Much handwringing will then ensue.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just a small point.

The current PM, TM, has yet to resign as PM and advise Her Maj on her replacement. Now her advice is predicated by her belief that her successor can command a majority in the HoC and can form a Government.

Now if a significant number of Tory MPs tell her privately that they will not back Bozo if he becomes PM, and will quit the Tory Party, or resign the whip, then she cannot advise Her Maj that he should become PM because .

So what is her advice? Call for someone else? Who? Or call a GE? A GE would appear to be the only choice.

Now to go off piste - or try and get a National Government to form - but who could head such a government? Perhaps a Lord might do - or a Tory grandee still in the HoC - Kenneth Clarke (79)? Not many names spring to mind - maybe Michael Hestletine (86) or John Major (76) or Chris Patten (75)? Although they are in the Lords, it would not exclude them.

John Major is not a lord so would not be possible without a safe seat.

Water John wrote: »

Hasn't May to recommend Johnson as the next PM to the Queen, assured that he can command a majority in the HOC?
If some Tory MPs let May know that they won't support him, what does she do?
This seems to me to be the first hurdle. If she then goes ahead and recommends Johnson to the Queen, she is open to a constitutional challenge.

That is a post I made on the 10th. I think that is more likely following the various stupid debates between the two contenders. (Or are they pretenders?)

ancapailldorcha

I'm rapidly becoming ever more convinced that Brexiters care about nothing but Breixt.

Sovereignty? The ghastly, unthinkable and abominable idea of proroguing Parliament has now entered the mainstream. Who was supposed to be taking back control here? I can think of nothing more undemocratic than a monarch agreeing to suspend Parliament simply because the Prime Minister finds it inconvenient to face scrutiny. Parliament is supposed to by coterminous with the people in British democracy. It's why the UK has traditionally eschewed referenda and it has worked well for the most part. The UK has never underwent a violent revolution or been a Police state. This tradition of personal liberty and sound government is being steadily eroded and replaced by nothing but a capacious pro-Brexit ideology.

The NHS? There's been no backlash that I can see to the £350 million a week claim on the red bus.

Immigration? Probably the one thing that Leave voters seem to be bothered about. That levels of EU migration have dropped means that the issue has largely departed from the mainstream though. In any case, the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker and Boris Johnson seem to care little about immigration so it's plausible that the one sole concern on which Brexiters have been somewhat consistent on will be disregarded.

Finally, there's the loss of Britain's standing in the world most recently epitomized by Kim Darroch's resignation. This was nothing short of a national humiliation and it's telling that the so-called nationalists don't seem to care one whit. I would always have considered nationalism to mean showing strength on a national level to the world, both to friends and enemies. This is literally the opposite. There was a suspicious leak to which Trump took offence and now the UK has lost a skilled diplomat. Taking back control indeed...

The UK is now in such a weak position that it must meekly cowtow to any large power as it will be so dependent on getting trade deals. Ironically, in the long term, this will include the EU as well as possibly Brazil, India, China along with any other geopolitical unions such as the African Union or Mercosur.

Don't get me wrong. I know that the EU is not perfect. I think that, before 2016 some of the arguments about it being democratic weren't exactly miles off. But any sort of rational thought from mainstream Eurosceptics has been discarded in favour of pomp, bombast and jingoism. Instead of looking to stay in to keep the EU from moving in a direction they didn't like, they decided to agitate for outright withdrawal. For the disaster capitalists, the EU's destruction would bring great opportunities. For Tories, there's the chance of maintaining party unity which has since been squandered. For Jeremy Corbyn, a chance to engorge the state though in fairness, I can respect bodies like Love Socialism Hate Brexit and Another Europe is Possible.

Putting rabid ideologues in positions of power has always ended poorly. The best we can expect from Johnson is that Parliament decides that it has had enough of his shenanigans and takes control again, ideally withdrawing the notice of invoking Article 50 as there won't be time for a general election or a People's Vote without another extension. Hopefully, such an act of humiliation of one of their own will finally chasten the Brexiters and we can finally have a sane expectation of strong, consistent and moderate government. It will have been long enough.

P.S. I'm choosing to refer to Boris Johnson as "Johnson" because I think that calling him "Boris" is an implicit recognition of a form of special status that I see no reason to afford him.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm rapidly becoming ever more convinced that Brexiters care about nothing but Breixt.

Sovereignty? The ghastly, unthinkable and abominable idea of proroguing Parliament has now entered the mainstream. Who was supposed to be taking back control here? I can think of nothing more undemocratic than a monarch agreeing to suspend Parliament simply because the Prime Minister finds it inconvenient to face scrutiny. Parliament is supposed to by coterminous with the people in British democracy. It's why the UK has traditionally eschewed referenda and it has worked well for the most part. The UK has never underwent a violent revolution or been a Police state. This tradition of personal liberty and sound government is being steadily eroded and replaced by nothing but a capacious pro-Brexit ideology.

The NHS? There's been no backlash that I can see to the £350 million a week claim on the red bus.

Immigration? Probably the one thing that Leave voters seem to be bothered about. That levels of EU migration have dropped means that the issue has largely departed from the mainstream though. In any case, the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker and Boris Johnson seem to care little about immigration so it's plausible that the one sole concern on which Brexiters have been somewhat consistent on will be disregarded.

Finally, there's the loss of Britain's standing in the world most recently epitomized by Kim Darroch's resignation. This was nothing short of a national humiliation and it's telling that the so-called nationalists don't seem to care one whit. I would always have considered nationalism to mean showing strength on a national level to the world, both to friends and enemies. This is literally the opposite. There was a suspicious leak to which Trump took offence and now the UK has lost a skilled diplomat. Taking back control indeed...

The UK is now in such a weak position that it must meekly cowtow to any large power as it will be so dependent on getting trade deals. Ironically, in the long term, this will include the EU as well as possibly Brazil, India, China along with any other geopolitical unions such as the African Union or Mercosur.

Don't get me wrong. I know that the EU is not perfect. I think that, before 2016 some of the arguments about it being democratic weren't exactly miles off. But any sort of rational thought from mainstream Eurosceptics has been discarded in favour of pomp, bombast and jingoism. Instead of looking to stay in to keep the EU from moving in a direction they didn't like, they decided to agitate for outright withdrawal. For the disaster capitalists, the EU's destruction would bring great opportunities. For Tories, there's the chance of maintaining party unity which has since been squandered. For Jeremy Corbyn, a chance to engorge the state though in fairness, I can respect bodies like Love Socialism Hate Brexit and Another Europe is Possible.

Putting rabid ideologues in positions of power has always ended poorly. The best we can expect from Johnson is that Parliament decides that it has had enough of his shenanigans and takes control again, ideally withdrawing the notice of invoking Article 50 as there won't be time for a general election or a People's Vote without another extension. Hopefully, such an act of humiliation of one of their own will finally chasten the Brexiters and we can finally have a sane expectation of strong, consistent and moderate government. It will have been long enough.

P.S. I'm choosing to refer to Boris Johnson as "Johnson" because I think that calling him "Boris" is an implicit recognition of a form of special status that I see no reason to afford him.

I've been doing this for months. It's actually very important across the media in Britain but Brexiteers constantly push 'Boris' as if he's everybody's pal.

BluePlanet

Does anyone know of a site that has a list of all the hold-over things that have been agreed?
I mean things like - a window of time to allow air flights etc?
I saw a list posted once by a Brexit supporter but cannot find it now.