Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

It is only when you read through this site that you realise what an extraordinary 3 years it has been.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1150431326006317058.html?fbclid=IwAR0oJ0TryhWcqq1Ps1EXe_sF0qy_L1W7EbztqfNhaJqNIghPV9PDYsBY_GI

As the whole mess gets more entrenched you would have to wonder what the next 3 will bring.

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm rapidly becoming ever more convinced that Brexiters care about nothing but Breixt.

Sovereignty? The ghastly, unthinkable and abominable idea of proroguing Parliament has now entered the mainstream. Who was supposed to be taking back control here? I can think of nothing more undemocratic than a monarch agreeing to suspend Parliament simply because the Prime Minister finds it inconvenient to face scrutiny. Parliament is supposed to by coterminous with the people in British democracy. It's why the UK has traditionally eschewed referenda and it has worked well for the most part. The UK has never underwent a violent revolution or been a Police state. This tradition of personal liberty and sound government is being steadily eroded and replaced by nothing but a capacious pro-Brexit ideology.

The NHS? There's been no backlash that I can see to the £350 million a week claim on the red bus.

Immigration? Probably the one thing that Leave voters seem to be bothered about. That levels of EU migration have dropped means that the issue has largely departed from the mainstream though. In any case, the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker and Boris Johnson seem to care little about immigration so it's plausible that the one sole concern on which Brexiters have been somewhat consistent on will be disregarded.

Finally, there's the loss of Britain's standing in the world most recently epitomized by Kim Darroch's resignation. This was nothing short of a national humiliation and it's telling that the so-called nationalists don't seem to care one whit. I would always have considered nationalism to mean showing strength on a national level to the world, both to friends and enemies. This is literally the opposite. There was a suspicious leak to which Trump took offence and now the UK has lost a skilled diplomat. Taking back control indeed...

The UK is now in such a weak position that it must meekly cowtow to any large power as it will be so dependent on getting trade deals. Ironically, in the long term, this will include the EU as well as possibly Brazil, India, China along with any other geopolitical unions such as the African Union or Mercosur.

Don't get me wrong. I know that the EU is not perfect. I think that, before 2016 some of the arguments about it being democratic weren't exactly miles off. But any sort of rational thought from mainstream Eurosceptics has been discarded in favour of pomp, bombast and jingoism. Instead of looking to stay in to keep the EU from moving in a direction they didn't like, they decided to agitate for outright withdrawal. For the disaster capitalists, the EU's destruction would bring great opportunities. For Tories, there's the chance of maintaining party unity which has since been squandered. For Jeremy Corbyn, a chance to engorge the state though in fairness, I can respect bodies like Love Socialism Hate Brexit and Another Europe is Possible.

Putting rabid ideologues in positions of power has always ended poorly. The best we can expect from Johnson is that Parliament decides that it has had enough of his shenanigans and takes control again, ideally withdrawing the notice of invoking Article 50 as there won't be time for a general election or a People's Vote without another extension. Hopefully, such an act of humiliation of one of their own will finally chasten the Brexiters and we can finally have a sane expectation of strong, consistent and moderate government. It will have been long enough.

P.S. I'm choosing to refer to Boris Johnson as "Johnson" because I think that calling him "Boris" is an implicit recognition of a form of special status that I see no reason to afford him.

Well, there was the Civil War: Roundheads and Cavaliers etc. Though that's all a little far back now.

Stop moaning ffs

The cutesy ‘bojo’ has been noticeably dropped also

Sam Russell

J Mysterio wrote: »

Well, there was the Civil War: Roundheads and Cavaliers etc. Though that's all a little far back now.

The American Revolution - does that count?

In more recent times there was a miners strike, poll tax riots and the London riots of 2010. Of course the 1916 uprising in Dublin might not count, plus the following war of independence. Then there was India followed by Africa.

Not to mention a thirty years war in Northern Ireland, but we should not mention that one.

boggerman1

So bojo's latest brain fart is to have the queens speech in early November,meaning that parliament is shut down conveniently around October 31st.so Johnson wanted to take back control in 2016 and now wants to be a dictator.Britain really is falling asunder in front of our eyes and its scary to see

beggars_bush

Also to add to that, the queen is in very advanced years.
There could be a lot of changes in a short time if she were to leave the scene...

volchitsa

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It is only when you read through this site that you realise what an extraordinary 3 years it has been.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1150431326006317058.html?fbclid=IwAR0oJ0TryhWcqq1Ps1EXe_sF0qy_L1W7EbztqfNhaJqNIghPV9PDYsBY_GI

As the whole mess gets more entrenched you would have to wonder what the next 3 will bring.

Thanks for that. It's always stunning to see these various recaps of Brexit madness. Illuminating, but in a bad way. (As an aside, I find the same thing with Trump - quite worrying that we have two separate political disaster areas simultaneously).

Somehow seeing it unfold in real time has a sort of normalising effect, where one shocking incident or claim pushes the previous one off the screen a little. An article like that one brings them into better perspective and points up just how much dishonesty and ignorance the Leave side has demonstrated.

BluePlanet

Reuters has some questionable reporting:

"Factbox: EU prepares possible Brexit olive branch for new UK PM" <-really this is a FACT? Who are the sources? "Diplomats and officials in Brussels told Reuters".

Here are the ideas the EU is preparing to put to the next UK leader

-A reworked political declaration on future EU-UK ties that forms a package with the legal divorce treaty. It would offer Britain a “bare-bones” free trade deal with the EU, as well as a commitment and timetable of talks on alternatives to the Irish ‘backstop’.

-A return to the idea of the backstop applying to Northern Ireland only, not to mainland Britain. London has previously rejected this idea, saying it would effectively mean part of the UK remaining in the EU, at least in terms of regulations.

-A longer post-Brexit transition period. The stalled deal negotiated by May and the EU proposes that the transition period last until the end of 2020, with an option to extend it by one or two years. A longer transition could only end once the new trade deal was in place.

-A beefed-up version of additional assurances that May won from the EU on the Irish backstop in March after the House of Commons voted her deal down for the first time.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-factbox/factbox-eu-prepares-possible-brexit-olive-branch-for-new-uk-pm-idUKKCN1UB1S1?rpc=401&

Stop moaning ffs

BluePlanet wrote: »

Reuters has some questionable reporting:

"Factbox: EU prepares possible Brexit olive branch for new UK PM" <-really this is a FACT? Who are the sources? "Diplomats and officials in Brussels told Reuters".



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-factbox/factbox-eu-prepares-possible-brexit-olive-branch-for-new-uk-pm-idUKKCN1UB1S1?rpc=401&

“-A beefed-up version of additional assurances that May won from the EU on the Irish backstop in March after the House of Commons voted her deal down for the first time.”


Well that’s just comedy

Professor Moriarty

BluePlanet wrote: »

Reuters has some questionable reporting:

"Factbox: EU prepares possible Brexit olive branch for new UK PM" <-really this is a FACT? Who are the sources? "Diplomats and officials in Brussels told Reuters".



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-factbox/factbox-eu-prepares-possible-brexit-olive-branch-for-new-uk-pm-idUKKCN1UB1S1?rpc=401&

And yet EU sources spin it differently to The Guardian:

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt’s Brexit plan to axe the Irish border backstop from the withdrawal agreement will be rejected outright by the European Union, EU sources have said.

Informed sources say it is doomed to failure and if the next prime minister goes to Brussels with such a proposal, he will be told in “no uncertain terms” that it amounts to a declaration of no deal.

Brussels had already rebuffed such a plan when the Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, who is part of Johnson’s campaign, met the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, last week.

In what was seen as “spinning for a Boris plan”, Barclay told Barnier five times during the meeting that the backstop was dead. Sources say he told Barnier they wanted a series of mini-deals and alternative arrangements for the Irish border.

He was told that was Brexit fantasy and a non-starter, and that the “mini-deals” outlined in EU contingency plans were temporary and covered only the “bare bones” such as aviation, mobile phone roaming and haulier driving licences. They did not include the major issues such as trade or the Irish border.

Spanish Eyes

Nothing to add but enjoy reading all your informed comments. To me it is just getting more and more bizarre.

For anyone interested there is a great interview by James O'Brien with Ken Clarke on the podcast " Full Disclosure". If you are interested you should have a listen. Brexit is not the top issue, but Clarke is a great interviewee just the same. And he is against Brexit too.

Joe_ Public

According to reports Barclay was quite aggressive and hostile to Barnier during that meeting which suggests to me either another "peacocking" attempt to curry favour with his next boss or perhaps a pre-ordained strategy to enrage their EU negotiators and get them to lose their cool in public, thus raising the stakes in the anticipated blame game. If the latter, i'm glad to see it's not working. Ursula van der Leyn may not have it in her grasp to grant another extension, as has been pointed out, but i doubt she was putting that out there as a solo run and I interpret it as a sign of solidarity with the UK remain faction, assuring them that the EU is not yet ready to burn all bridges and is still hopeful of finding a way. Not to lose hope basically. I think that's a very important message to get out there while others are doing their best to facilitate the no deal outcome.

Tell me how

Von der Leyen in.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1151185891009990656

Says a lot about the state of play that my immediate thoughts were "Take that Farage"

gooch2k9

Tell me how wrote: »

Von der Leyen in.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1151185891009990656

Says a lot about the state of play that my immediate thoughts were "Take that Farage"

Mad that a 51-49 tally is a pretty narrow margin in the EU.

52-48 is the clear will of the people in the UK.

Joe_ Public

Pleased about that, all i've read of Ms Van Der Leyn has been positive, definitely has what it takes to be a good commissioner. But i'd also suggest that the EU do really need to look at their election procedures, i dont think it was really all that edifying in certain respects and they left themselves open to the likes of Farage to snipe at it. Not that it gives me any great satisfaction to be even 1% agreeing with anything the latter has to say. How ridiculous those guys look in the parliament chamber, with their little union jacks and taking pics and selfies, they resemble a transition class on a day out with their teachers sitting in the front row.

BluePlanet

I don't agree with her message that another Extension is possible or even welcome.
She should be hammering the home-truth that words matter, and this last Extension was given in order of the UK to get their act together - which they have totally wasted.

Agreeing to additional Extensions plays into the No Deal narrative that the EU are afraid of UK leaving and need the UK more than the UK need the EU.

Tell me how

BluePlanet wrote: »

I don't agree with her message that another Extension is possible or even welcome.
She should be hammering the home-truth that words matter, and this last Extension was given in order of the UK to get their act together - which they have totally wasted.

Agreeing to additional Extensions plays into the No Deal narrative that the EU are afraid of UK leaving and need the UK more than the UK need the EU.

I'm not so sure. I think if they had made any noises saying they would talk to a new PM about the deal to see if it could be passed 'or whatever' it wouldpaint the picture they are panicking about the UK leaving.

But, this way, I think they see what is going on at home and are diplomatically letting the UK fight amongst themselves.

brickster69

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Mad that a 51-49 tally is a pretty narrow margin in the EU.

52-48 is the clear will of the people in the UK.

Who came second ?

Joe_ Public

Tell me how wrote: »

I'm not so sure. I think if they had made any noises saying they would talk to a new PM about the deal to see if it could be passed 'or whatever' it wouldpaint the picture they are panicking about the UK leaving.

But, this way, I think they see what is going on at home and are diplomatically letting the UK fight amongst themselves.

That would be my reading of it too. I dont see what is to be gained at this stage by the EU trying to hammer home any home truths or get involved in war of words with British politicians, either privately or in public. There's nothing to be gained by it. But i do see the sense in dropping subtle hints to those on the remain side that we are still willing to facilitate you if you get your act together in time.

Stop moaning ffs

Brexit meps Booed during her speech earlier.

Stay classy lads

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And yet EU sources spin it differently to The GuardianHe was told that was Brexit fantasy and a non-starter, and that the “mini-deals” outlined in EU contingency plans were temporary and covered only the “bare bones” such as aviation, mobile phone roaming and haulier driving licences. They did not include the major issues such as trade or the Irish border.[/I]

Those mini-deals are one sided, they are there for the EU's convenience, and could be removed at any time. It's like relying on Article 24.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

P.S. I'm choosing to refer to Boris Johnson as "Johnson" because I think that calling him "Boris" is an implicit recognition of a form of special status that I see no reason to afford him.

May I respectfully suggest
https://discworld.fandom.com/wiki/Bloody_Stupid_Johnson

Although evidently able in certain fields, Johnson is notorious for his complete inability to produce anything according to specification or common sense, or (sometimes) even the laws of physics.
...
"It Might Look A Bit Messy Now But Just You Come Back In Five Hundred Years' Time"
...
The most obvious flaw in Johnson's abilities is his blind spot when it comes to marking units on his plans. But while most of Johnson's designs are simply unusual, some of them seem to tap into strange forces, probably by mistake

Leroy42

Just watching Sky News, and maybe I am being overly sensitive and I do understand that SN have been good on the whole on Brexit, but I noticed the wording used.

EU are digging in, Ireland not comprising despite massive hit to economy etc. Yet there was nothing of the sort about
Johnson or Hunt position.

More talk about EU compromise at the last minute.

Just that Johnson wants to park Backstop and divorce bill for after Brexit.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Just watching Sky News, and maybe I am being overly sensitive and I do understand that SN have been good on the whole on Brexit, but I noticed the wording used.

EU are digging in, Ireland not comprising despite massive hit to economy etc. Yet there was nothing of the sort about
Johnson or Hunt position.

More talk about EU compromise at the last minute.

Just that Johnson wants to park Backstop and divorce bill for after Brexit.

The did stress though that this is in response to Hunt and Johnson ramping up the rhetoric considerably last night

black forest

It might be of interest to have another look at the EU preparation papers for Brexit which are still valid. How these could be called mini deals by anyone is beyond normal understanding.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/communication-19-december-2018-preparing-withdrawal-united-kingdom-european-union-30-march-2019-implementing-commissions-contingency-action-plan_en


With Von der Leyen as chief of the commission, Barnier still there and Sabine Weyand already waiting should a Brexit really happen i want to see who the UK will send to Brussels. Barclay will have zero chance over there.

Bit cynical

BluePlanet wrote: »

I don't agree with her message that another Extension is possible or even welcome.

Where does she say this?

Capt'n Midnight

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Mad that a 51-49 tally is a pretty narrow margin in the EU.

52-48 is the clear will of the people in the UK.

It's only 51-49 if you include 22 abstentions and one vote declared invalid as counting against her.

Otherwise it's 383 vs 327 which is 54% vs 46%



And of course no one in the UK can complain about FPTP

Theresa May was just 400 votes short of a majority in the General Election in 2017.

First Up

Bit cynical wrote:

Where does she say this?

She said she would be prepared to grant a further extension should more time be required "for good reason".

She was stating her personal view and the "good reason" will need to be accepted by a lot of people.

gooch2k9

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's only 51-49 if you include 22 abstentions and one vote declared invalid as counting against her.

Otherwise it's 383 vs 327 which is 54% vs 46%



And of course no one in the UK can complain about FPTP

Theresa May was just 400 votes short of a majority in the General Election in 2017.

To be honest I didn't look into it too much! It was more a response to the "narrow margin" comment from the Sky reporter, being aware the majority was ~375.

I take it the Brexit Party voted on something they want nothing to do with?

54and56

First Up wrote: »

She said she would be prepared to grant a further extension should more time be required "for good reason".

She was stating her personal view and the "good reason" will need to be accepted by a lot of people.

This is just repeating the current EU position, you can have an extension if it's for a GE or a referendum but not if you just want to go round in more circles on the WA which is closed.

First Up

54&56 wrote:

This is just repeating the current EU position, you can have an extension if it's for a GE or a referendum but not if you just want to go round in more circles on the WA which is closed.

We'll see how good Boris will be at explaining that.