Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

declanflynn

We were foolish to depend on one market for most of our beef exports so Brexit will fix that problem

prawnsambo

InTheShadows wrote: »

So now war criminals are "sensible". Jesus wept.

Way to misrepresent what he was saying.

listermint

I do enjoy the whole 'blairite' dilemma that folks have when the gas path is during that government the UK enjoyed its greatest economic successes and it's people enjoyed all of the trappings that went with it. Crime down, social assistance up. Jobs up. Investment up. Economic activity flying, the whole UK had a feel good factor during that era.


And yet being part of that government is seen as a bad thing.


....

Lackadaisical

Well, like every government there's good and bad. They made a very bad decision around the Iraq war and jumping into bed with GW Bush, but in their early days they presided over one of the better times in modern British history that saw a lot of social stability and progress.

The biggest thing from an Irish perspective was that New Labour had a majority and drive to solve Northern Ireland and Mo Mowlam in particular was absolutely key to that.

Over simplification of politics in England into tribes is a huge part of what's causing this mess. I'm loathed to write anyone off as a Blairite or a Corbynite or anything else that acts as short hand for "the other tribe we don't like"

Patser

InTheShadows wrote: »

Genuine question, what's scary about it?

What's scary is that:

A man who has built a following through a personal charisma, that has built into a recognisable cult, through work as a journalist (whereby he often misrepresented facts or simply lied), or lesser scrutinised roles like Mayor of London, or even roles he became a byword for ridicule before resigning (Foreign Secretary):

Is now poised to become Prime Minister of the UK at an incredibly divisive and crucial time, where clear planning and decisive leadership is needed, based entirely on his ability to say positive things about how everything will be ok regardless of a plan.

TL:dr THIS IS NOT BEN AND F.IN HOLLY

No memes please.

sandbelter

[QUOTE=Professor Moriarty;[/QUOTE] and [QUOTE=Zubeneschamali.[/QUOTE]

Having read the report in its entirety I think the Press reporting has actually missed the point about job losses and simply gone for sensationalist headline (sigh).

Its important to note this report simply looks at the trade/FDI impact of Brexit in isolation and the following assumption are made:

• They use the NEISR model of a -5.5% hit to the UK economy;
• They assume no inflation/debt impact on the financial markets of Brexit;
• They assume Ireland's share of Europe FDI will rise to 8.3% (5.6% currently), but this simply seems to be Third party FDI (I can't find a corresponding adjustment for UK now being 3rd party)
• Government mitigating policies are assumed but not quantified (so the 22,000 jobs forecast to be created by to accelerating the second runway at Dublin are not included)
• Substitution effects are not included (so the potential for Ireland to substitute the 100,000 of UK beef sold into EU not included nor is an ability to find additional markets for 165,000 tonnes...which of course assumes the UK doesn't eat beef anymore, and given Brazil went from circa 50,000 tonnes of beef exports to China in 2015 to circa 365,000, it is not unreasonable to assume open an flexible economy won't do this).

Thus I would regard the forecast job losses as sterile and quarantined. The economy may adjust very effectively to Brexit, but it does highlight two things:

• Without a customs border with the UK the substitution effect won't work.
• Whilst the inflation/interest rate assumption for Ireland are reasonable they mirror assumptions for the UK's NEISR model which may not....The UK has: Budget deficit (-2%), Chronic Current Account deficits; highly indebted consumers with wealth tied to the property market, largely deindustrialized, 85% debt to GDP ratio, and persistently above EU average inflation rate. A sterling exchange rate and interest rate and inflation charges are very likely.

I do have concern having had a close look at the assumptions (Masters degree in Eco speaking here), report assumes a 50%/50% loss dispersion...50% incurred in 2019 and 50% thereafter.... however applying some realism to the assumption then a 25%75% loss dispersion looks more probable.

This Brexit may not initially be as bad as feared for both Ireland and the UK, but prove more devastating to the UK with the passage of time to the trade shock and impact of a repricing of its risk profile. For Ireland the substitution effect can significantly change the Brexit impact...underscoring the need for a customs border to mitigate the long tail impact.

allthedoyles

sandbelter wrote: »

and

Having read the report in its entirety I think the Press reporting has actually missed the point about job losses and simply gone for sensationalist headline (sigh).

Its important to note this report simply looks at the trade/FDI impact of Brexit in isolation and the following assumption are made:

• They use the NEISR model of a -5.5% hit to the UK economy;
• They assume no inflation/debt impact on the financial markets of Brexit;
• They assume Ireland's share of Europe FDI will rise to 8.3% (5.6% currently), but this simply seems to be Third party FDI (I can't find a corresponding adjustment for UK now being 3rd party)
• Government mitigating policies are assumed but not quantified (so the 22,000 jobs forecast to be created by to accelerating the second runway at Dublin are not included)
• Substitution effects are not included (so the potential for Ireland to substitute the 100,000 of UK beef sold into EU not included nor is an ability to find additional markets for 165,000 tonnes...which of course assumes the UK doesn't eat beef anymore, and given Brazil went from circa 50,000 tonnes of beef exports to China in 2015 to circa 365,000, it is not unreasonable to assume open an flexible economy won't do this).

Thus I would regard the forecast job losses as sterile and quarantined. The economy may adjust very effectively to Brexit, but it does highlight two things:

• Without a customs border with the UK the substitution effect won't work.
• Whilst the inflation/interest rate assumption for Ireland are reasonable they mirror assumptions for the UK's NEISR model which may not....The UK has: Budget deficit (-2%), Chronic Current Account deficits; highly indebted consumers with wealth tied to the property market, largely deindustrialized, 85% debt to GDP ratio, and persistently above EU average inflation rate. A sterling exchange rate and interest rate and inflation charges are very likely.

I do have concern having had a close look at the assumptions (Masters degree in Eco speaking here), report assumes a 50%/50% loss dispersion...50% incurred in 2019 and 50% thereafter.... however applying some realism to the assumption then a 25%75% loss dispersion looks more probable.

This Brexit may not initially be as bad as feared for both Ireland and the UK, but prove more devastating to the UK with the passage of time to the trade shock and impact of a repricing of its risk profile. For Ireland the substitution effect can significantly change the Brexit impact...underscoring the need for a customs border to mitigate the long tail impact.

I have already sourced cheaper products in Europe . UK online platforms like Amazon will certainly lose bigtime .



Irish businessess will bypass UK

First Up

listermint wrote:

And yet being part of that government is seen as a bad thing.

No, the Blair years brought Labour to the sensible middle ground economically and he deserves credit for Northern Ireland too.

But Iraq drove thousands of Labour supporters and members to the Lib Dems. That changed the balance to pick the wrong Miliband.

Cameron committed to a Brexit referendum fully expecting to not be able to deliver it as expected he'd be in coalition with the Lib Dems. Ed Miliband put paid to that.

When Ed went, it created the opportunity to recruit thousands of new left wing members who joined just to elect Corbyn.

So you could look back at the Blair/Bush/Iraq thing as the root cause of a lot of today's mess but Labour have themselves to blame for most of it.

20silkcut

declanflynn wrote: »

We were foolish to depend on one market for most of our beef exports so Brexit will fix that problem

In fairness it is an historic market going back hundreds of years. The geographical reality of a big industrial country that needs to be fed and a relatively empty country with abundant grassland right on its doorstep it was always going to be a very convenient and natural arrangement. And always will be.
It will be a massive rupture in the economic relations between the two countries. The parallels with the economic war of the 1930’s are striking.
But we didn’t have the EU back then. And we held our resolve for 4 or 5 years at that time in much worse circumstances.
I would fear for beef farmers in this country with high current debt levels it will be a very uncertain period if no deal is persisted with for any extended time.
But it is a much different world to the 1930’s and we have many more options for shipping surplus beef and other products. Certainly we will have much more favorable options than farmers in Britain and Northern Ireland. If anything a no deal brexit will be like the economic war in reverse. We will be part of the more powerful player this time.

murphaph

I don't think the average UK customer even sees Irish beef as a premium product. They often think we are just one of their regions. On the continent it's different. Irish beef is sold as a premium product. There's more than enough potential to exploit.

Stop moaning ffs

Leaked no-deal Brexit contingency plans reveal Britain is not prepared for an October exit

https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-no-deal-brexit-plans-reveal-uk-is-not-prepared-for-october-exit-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

FrancieBrady

murphaph wrote: »

I don't think the average UK customer even sees Irish beef as a premium product. They often think we are just one of their regions. On the continent it's different. Irish beef is sold as a premium product. There's more than enough potential to exploit.

Losing that dependency when we recover from Brexit will be a massive plus for this country.

Joe_ Public

Here we go again with Amber Rudd on Marr. She's changed her mind, shifted her position in the few months since she warned against no deal as a disaster. Seems everybody in brexit land is allowed to change their minds, except the people who remain locked into a vote made 3 years ago with information that was, to say the least, inconclusive. I guess this is the "democracy" that hard brexiteers keep daily reminding us of.

Leroy42

It is all quite staggeringly hypocritical, isn't it?

swampgas

I was wondering at the low calibre of senior politicians in the UK right now. I wonder if the FPTP system is a factor, indirectly? FPTP reduces the number of parties in general, and tends to create an environment where the two biggest parties dominate.

This creates a number of roadblocks to much of the potential political talent that might be available across the UK from getting a chance to get involved and to lead the country to a better place.

• There are fewer parties so all aspiring politicians are competing for a small pool of opportunities. So many may not bother.
• Young talent whose values don't align with the big two may decide not to bother with politics at all.
• Starting a new party and getting any traction is almost impossible (no STV).
• Getting elected as an independent is very difficult (no STV).
• The two major parties are very well established and (IMO) have been captured by special interest groups and well-connected political dynasties. This means that many MPs in the UK tend to be drawn from a small set of narrow groups. This excludes a lot of talent that might otherwise get involved.

Countries with PR tend to have a more dynamic and varied set of political parties, and STV reduces the barrier to entry of both independents and new political groups. As a result real political talent is more likely to get involved in politics in the first place, and more likely to be successful if they are any good.

There are many other factors of course, but something has to explain the huge contrast in the calibre of senior politicians in the UK compared to many EU countries, regardless of size.

L1011

FPTP realistically caused all of this, from not having one or two Referendum Party members making a fool of themselves in Parliament in the 90s killing off the allure before Farage even stood for election

Zubeneschamali

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Leaked no-deal Brexit contingency plans reveal Britain is not prepared for an October exit

https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-no-deal-brexit-plans-reveal-uk-is-not-prepared-for-october-exit-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

More tone deaf reporting:

Among the most urgent of these is the UK-EU agreement on road haulage. This agreement allowing British lorries basic connectivity rights to continue traveling in the EU is set to expire on December 31, just weeks after the UK could leave the EU without a deal in October. The FTA is urging ministers to extend it until at least the end of 2020.

This "agreement" was a unilateral measure put in place by the EU. UK ministers had exactly nothing to do with it, and can do exactly nothing to extend it except ask the EU politely, please Sir, may I have another agreement.

And the EU may not be in any mood to extend it until they hear what Boris No Deal Johnson has to say at the end of the month as PM.

Leroy42

Taking back control by relying on others to give you deals!

leitrim4life

Is it true 90% of flour is imported into Ireland?

murphaph

leitrim4life wrote: »

Is it true 90% of flour is imported into Ireland?

Wouldn't surprise me. The weather that makes Ireland good pastureland surely doesn't lend itself to bountiful wheat harvests but I stand to be corrected.

Strazdas

L1011 wrote: »

FPTP realistically caused all of this, from not having one or two Referendum Party members making a fool of themselves in Parliament in the 90s killing off the allure before Farage even stood for election

Also, a Leave referendum would have been an impossibility under a coalition government. It could only happen with a single party one - a concept that is virtually unheard of in the rest of Europe these days

Irish Praetorian

murphaph wrote: »

Wouldn't surprise me. The weather that makes Ireland good pastureland surely doesn't lend itself to bountiful wheat harvests but I stand to be corrected.

On top of that I don't think we have much milling capacity to refine grains into edible flour, probably a by-product of the aforementioned lack of grain production. From what I can tell of the Ireland of yore, flour was almost always the one thing that was bought from the shop, not grown in your local garden plot, from which you might get everything from onions to strawberries.

Stop moaning ffs

murphaph wrote: »

Wouldn't surprise me. The weather that makes Ireland good pastureland surely doesn't lend itself to bountiful wheat harvests but I stand to be corrected.

Aren’t odlums huge?
Be surprised to learn they import but I could easily be wrong

L1011

They import. Huge silos in Dublin Port

We import what we mill and also huge amounts of finished product. Other grains grow better here

Stop moaning ffs

L1011 wrote: »

They import. Huge silos in Dublin Port

We import what we mill and also huge amounts of finished product. Other grains grow better here

Didn’t know that. Thank you. That’s mad.

jm08

A rundown on wheat/flour. Just as well the EU has just signed a trade deal with Canada!

Imports and Exports

About 80-85% of the wheat used by UK flour millers is home-grown, although the precise proportion depends on the quality of the UK harvest. The main sources of imported wheat within the European Union are Germany and France, whilst Canada and the US are the main sources for the rest of the world. Canadian wheat is generally imported for bread-making purposes, because it has excellent characteristics and gluten strength which work well in a blend with UK wheats. French wheat is generally used in the manufacture of French style products where softer flours are required. German wheat usage fluctuates according to the quality of the British crop.

The majority of flour produced in the UK is also used at home. Imports account for approximately 1% of UK flour sales, whilst about 2% of production is exported. Both import and export volumes tend to fluctuate along with currency appreciation or depreciation. The main export destination for UK millers is the Republic of Ireland (about 160,000 tonnes per year), whilst France (about 20,000 tonnes per year) is the country of origin for the biggest proportion of flour imports.

There will be no problem with getting the raw material - the problem is a lack of milling capability.

reslfj

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Didn’t know that. Thank you. That’s mad.

It's anything but mad.

Wheat for baking should have a high content of gluten proteins and that isn't the case unless it has had lots of fertiliser and/or warm sunny whether.

Wheat for baking can be grown in e.g. Denmark in most modern (warm) summers, but it requires extra fertiliser (which adds to much surplus nitrogen-salts to streams, lakes and coastal waters).

Modern developed economies produce products where it's best and least expensive and then trade 'your goods' for 'my goods' - adding value to both of us.

Lars

Irish Praetorian

reslfj wrote: »

It's anything but mad.

Wheat for baking should have a high content of gluten proteins and that isn't the case unless it has had lots of fertiliser and/or warm sunny whether.

Wheat for baking can be grown in e.g. Denmark in most modern (warm) summers, but it requires extra fertiliser (which adds to much surplus nitrogen-salts to streams, lakes and coastal waters).

Modern developed economies produce products where it's best and least expensive and then trade 'your goods' for 'my goods' - adding value to both of us.

Lars

I wonder if we made the Law of Comparative Advantage mandatory learning in the UK would we even have this Brexit talk?

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Is it me or your figures are getting larger with each post? Sounds like project fear

It's the ESRI's figures. You'll have to decide for yourself if the ESRI is part of project fear.

Capt'n Midnight

jm08 wrote: »

A rundown on wheat/flour. Just as well the EU has just signed a trade deal with Canada!

The main export destination for UK millers is the Republic of Ireland (about 160,000 tonnes per year),

There will be no problem with getting the raw material - the problem is a lack of milling capability.

160,000 tonnes is only about 5.5% of the traffice of Dublin port's busiest month. Other months would have more spare capacity. So we should be OK until the mills are sorted.

Container storage space is being reduced, or rather they are encouraging people to pick them sooner by cutting the free parking from a week to four days and doubling the charge per day to €40 after that.

https://www.dublinport.ie/dublin-port-announces-new-dwell-time-initiative-increase-port-capacity-post-brexit/

The need to maximise the use of land at Dublin Port is more pressing following the loss of eight hectares of port lands to State Agencies for secondary inspection facilities required after Brexit.