Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The big issue for recruiters in the UK is that many people who moved there thinking they were moving within the EU will really not be that bothered going through the bureaucracy to stay.

I have heard this from quite a few people in academia and so on. If they'd wanted to go through a big complicated visa mess, they'd have applied for positions in the US and the UK doesn't hold that level of attraction for many academics.

It makes a simple move into a massive bureaucratic ordeal and then drags in issues like being unable to bring partners, children and so on.

If you take someone say like a German academic working in a UK university, they're not really going to be that bothered and will just apply for something in Germany or elsewhere in the EU instead.

Effectively they've just pulled the rug out form a lot of people and made them feel completely unwelcome. Actually, it's not even that they've made them 'feel' unwelcome, they've been told where to go!

That really potentially ends the role of UK cities as European tech and academic hubs.

The UK had attracted a lot of EU people (as is Ireland at the moment) because it spoke the international interchange language - English and was perceived as vibrant, progressive and interesting place to be. That's all been turned on its head and I would assume a lot of people who don't really need to be there will just go.

The pool of talent is just going to be a lot smaller and they can't claim to be a European centre of anything anymore.

I'm finding I keep hearing from various people that London's Europe's financial centre. There's a sort of cognitive dissonance going on where they think that because they are currently a hub of European finance that the EU will continue to need them after they leave. They've declared themselves not-part-of-Europe, are in the process of cutting all ties and burning all bridges, so I don't really see how that's going to work.

They become as relevant to the EU as Wall Street, Hong Kong, Singapore and so on - just another off-shore financial centre. The processing of European finance will simply move back into Europe, probably as a network of smaller financial centres - we're not in the 1980s anymore and technology doesn't require everyone to be sitting in the same square km to transact high finance.

Yes. Exactly.

What the "We won two World Wars" people fail to understand is that the British economy has undergone a completely transformative change from Thatcher onwards. Heavy industry and manufacturing are all but gone. Now, we have a mainly services-based economy. These services are provided by people, many of whom have unprecedented levels of freedom to live and work in 27 mainly wealthy countries. There's nothing to keep them in the UK except their jobs and those are also more mobile than ever before. The UK's position as one of the wealthiest nations on Earth is viewed as the product of some divine natural order when it is instead the product of the UK's geography and history of being a liberal nation which prioritised property rights, free trade (since the Corn Laws which sunk Robert Peel's premiership in the mid-nineteenth century) and openness to the world. These values are now commonplace in Europe so if the UK abandons them, so will it too be abandoned by high-skilled labour and capital.

I collaborate with elite scientists (including some who feature on the BBC) regularly. I've not seen too many worry about Brexit but there is a noticeable trickle of talent from Britain to the continent. There is a degree of complacency about Brexit. I myself only speak the one language so my options on the continent are limited. However, very, very few of my colleagues are British. If you don't believe me, take a gander at the list of researchers on any department of any elite UK University's website. You'll find few, if any traditional Anglo-Saxon names. Why is this? It's because when you're the best at something, people from all over the world want to work with you. Elite institutions like UCL, ICL, Oxford, Cambridge and the Russell Group are able to take their pick of talent from a global pool. Being able to do this allows Universities to specialise and grow. This in turn foments the creation of cutting edge startups. Bigger companies also tend to locate their R&D departments near these hubs as well, such as Microsoft's handsome research lab located a mere few steps from Cambridge station.

So... when you decide to turn away from the world, that's akin to spraying weedkiller all over your garden which has been carefully cultivated for many, many decades. I've seen Brexit dressed up as all sorts of virtuous things; Democracy, Free Trade, Economic Equality, etc.. It is none of them. It is a disaster capitalist project being sold as these things. People voted for Sovereignty of which they will have less. They voted for less immigration which means telling Britain's closest trading partners that their citizens are not welcome in the UK. You can dress this up however you want but that's my perspective in research. Telling highly skilled people that they are not welcome means that they will be less likely to move here. People already here might find themselves tempted to move to the continet. They do speak multiple European languages after all. Companies only really need to be here for the high skilled labour and if that starts to move to, say France then they are likely to slowly start shifting their premises there. Speaking of France, Emmanuel Macron has been able to influence the EU such that he's largely gotten his way in the recent allocations of the top EU jobs.

Ultimately, all of these services are just people providing materially intangible services to other people. This flexibility means that they can provided from anywhere to anywhere in the EU. Without the UK, the EU might even go down a protectionist route given that the Tories seem to be keen on stripping away more regulations and the state in general. It might even slap tariffs on financial services that the UK would otherwise have been able to veto. Once the damage is done, these people will not be coming back. I've seen people uproot families over Brexit to head back to the continent. They won't be doing a volte face if whatever Conservative replaces Johnson sees sense if Johnson does follow through with no deal. It's grotesque that this farce has been allowed to progress to this point. Only minor damage has been done so far but if the brakes are not pressed and soon then the UK will lose its standing in the world. We've already seen the humiliation of the UK's ambassador to Washington along with muted criticism of Huawei and Saudi Arabia. Brexiters were promised more control and now the country is haemorrhaging it.

Lackadaisical

On the financial sector point, it's hugely in the European Central Bank interest to pull as much of the EU's financial services sector back within the Eurozone too. It improves regulatory ability and thus the stability of the Euro.

Brexit could be seen as an opportunity to reign in the wild west of finance.

nc6000

20silkcut wrote:

Just watching the tri colour burn in orange pyres today in fairness in light of the whole Brexit situation and the havoc it’s going to wreak on this island it’s utterly unacceptable. There is no justification for it. We don’t burn their flags in any officially sanctioned ceremonies like this and we have much more reason than they have . Why do we accept this???

Are they back burning our flag again? The pictures I saw last year were of the Ivory Coast flag being burned.

Shelga

Irish Times headline today says property prices here may fall as a result of a hard Brexit.

As a potential first time buyer, I can’t pretend this wouldn’t be a small silver lining, although I’m not sure how big the impact would actually be.

Frank Bullitt

Shelga wrote: »

Irish Times headline today says property prices here may fall as a result of a hard Brexit.

As a potential first time buyer, I can’t pretend this wouldn’t be a small silver lining, although I’m not sure how big the impact would actually be.

I have heard something similar. I am living abroad in Canada right now, and I do want to move back to Ireland at some stage. Brexit is. areal spanner in the works for me but at the same time, I am in no rush really.

I had heard that the vulture funds that have been having a great time in Ireland will just head over to the UK to do the same thing to them, and thus free up property in Ireland, coupled with the downturn in the GDP it would make the houses cheaper.

Having said that, if GDP is accompanied by job losses etc, it might not be much of a silver lining at all.

Mr.Nice Guy

That was some mauling Andrew Neil gave Johnson. How anyone can believe in him after that I do not know.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1149734201991806977

An Claidheamh

20silkcut wrote: »

Just watching the tri colour burn in orange pyres today in fairness in light of the whole Brexit situation and the havoc it’s going to wreak on this island it’s utterly unacceptable. There is no justification for it. We don’t burn their flags in any officially sanctioned ceremonies like this and we have much more reason than they have . Why do we accept this???

I can guarantee you if there was even one union jack burned in the Republic , the army would be sent in.

Don't forget the Irish government fund and support this hate fest.
Along with our media.

Could you imagine if African-American politicians supported KKK marches?

Here is the Tourism Ireland CEO promoting an anti-Irish, sectarian, terrorist supporting fascist group, along with Neale Richmond and Damien English of FG.
You won't see them at a bonfire or have rocks and piss thrown at their children when they're back in their leafy suburbs.


https://mobile.twitter.com/NiallGibbons?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor




Is it any wonder why the British don't fear trodding over the Irish government when they know they actually have no backbone?
SNIP.

Fionn1952

I'm not sure if this has been posted already, but apparently the plan is to ignore Brussels now, and land over to threaten or bribe Ireland. Mind boggling that this is a sufficiently mainstream view to warrant airtime.

https://twitter.com/GreeneSheamus/status/1149640388497403904?s=19

devnull

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

That was some mauling Andrew Neil gave Johnson. How anyone can believe in him after that I do not know.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1149734201991806977

Unfortunately Boris was playing to the narrative of it all being the EU's fault if they did not agree to do everything he wants from paragraph 5b. Since paragraph 5c does not suit the agenda he is trying to push he decided to go for the deception by omission tactic by ignoring it even existed and then played the card that if they didn't give him what he wants then they are lacking in common sense.

He then decided to go down the deflection route by attacking the presenter to try and change tack to try and get the discussion onto something else to hide the fact that he had no idea what he was talking about and got very shouty and talking over the presenter becasue he had to change the line of questioning ASAP because it was getting uncomfortable for that.

I saw that at the same time as an arch brexiteer and they were loving the way Boris was and whether we think he got a mauling and felt the presenter was the only one who was mauled. The Brexiteers will say that he is believing in Britain and standing up for their rights and being patriotic, it's totally delusional, but it's just the way that needs people think unfortunately, it is being sent up to blame the EU and Ireland for everything and from my experience of Brexiteers recently in the UK, the groundwork is almost complete in brainwashing them into that.

beggars_bush

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

That was some mauling Andrew Neil gave Johnson. How anyone can believe in him after that I do not know.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1149734201991806977

Not enough journalists and presenters actually hold them up to scrutiny

THEY'RE MAKING IT UP AS THEY GO ALONG

Professor Moriarty

devnull wrote: »

Unfortunately Boris was playing to the narrative of it all being the EU's fault if they did not agree to do everything he wants from paragraph 5b. Since paragraph 5c does not suit the agenda he is trying to push he decided to go for the deception by omission tactic by ignoring it even existed and then played the card that if they didn't give him what he wants then they are lacking in common sense.

He then decided to go down the deflection route by attacking the presenter to try and change tack to try and get the discussion onto something else to hide the fact that he had no idea what he was talking about and got very shouty and talking over the presenter becasue he had to change the line of questioning ASAP because it was getting uncomfortable for that.

I saw that at the same time as an arch brexiteer and they were loving the way Boris was and whether we think he got a mauling and felt the presenter was the only one who was mauled. The Brexiteers will say that he is believing in Britain and standing up for their rights and being patriotic, it's totally delusional, but it's just the way that needs people think unfortunately, it is being sent up to blame the EU and Ireland for everything and from my experience of Brexiteers recently in the UK, the groundwork is almost complete in brainwashing them into that.

Johnson to say "fake news" in 3...2...1...

Patser

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson to say "fake news" in 3...2...1...

Farage has beaten him to it in that line, as new polls show Brexit party support is dropping as supporters return to Tories with Boris's promises.


https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1149780021189517319

Itssoeasy

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I'm not sure if this has been posted already, but apparently the plan is to ignore Brussels now, and land over to threaten or bribe Ireland. Mind boggling that this is a sufficiently mainstream view to warrant airtime.

https://twitter.com/GreeneSheamus/status/1149640388497403904?s=19

I saw that this morning. I mean sweet loving Jesus is it any wonder that things are in a mess when as you say this viewpoint gets airtime on the BBC ?

I mean we should all be engaged and informed on the brexit but stuff like the above makes me at least wonder what the point is. He isn't a lone voice either which is the worrying thing.

Itssoeasy

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I'm not sure if this has been posted already, but apparently the plan is to ignore Brussels now, and land over to threaten or bribe Ireland. Mind boggling that this is a sufficiently mainstream view to warrant airtime.

https://twitter.com/GreeneSheamus/status/1149640388497403904?s=19

I saw that this morning. I mean sweet loving Jesus is it any wonder that things are in a mess when as you say this viewpoint gets airtime on the BBC ?

I mean we should all be engaged and informed on the brexit but stuff like the above makes me at least wonder what the point is. He isn't a lone voice either which is the worrying thing.

lawred2

Patser wrote: »

Farage has beaten him to it in that line, as new polls show Brexit party support is dropping as supporters return to Tories with Boris's promises.


https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1149780021189517319

It's the exact same playbook used by Trump.

prawnsambo

Patser wrote: »

Farage has beaten him to it in that line, as new polls show Brexit party support is dropping as supporters return to Tories with Boris's promises.

It also may be an indication of how the British public view the Brexit party and UKIP before them. Fine to vote them into Europe, but when it comes to Westminster (i.e. serious politics), it's back to the tried and tested. BP will undoubtedly take seats, but as the prospect of a GE looms larger, polling will tail off in favour of the mainstream parties.

declanflynn

I'm a beef farmer and first time poster here, I cant wait for the UK to go, the sooner the better I say, was worried but now I don't care, maybe we can send more beef to Europe to replace British lamb there is no getting tru to the Brexit supporters but I'm gonna try here😉

Patser

prawnsambo wrote: »

It also may be an indication of how the British public view the Brexit party and UKIP before them. Fine to vote them into Europe, but when it comes to Westminster (i.e. serious politics), it's back to the tried and tested. BP will undoubtedly take seats, but as the prospect of a GE looms larger, polling will tail off in favour of the mainstream parties.

Yep, in a GE questions like tax, health, day to day stuff come to fire and the Brexit Party doesn't even have a manifesto out beyond Brexit good and future is fantastic. Farage may have some charisma, but when his want to be Health secretary, or defence minister, or who ever is decided and starts getting asked questions on specifics, that'll be when a party without a plan falters.

Leroy42

devnull wrote: »

I saw that at the same time as an arch brexiteer and they were loving the way Boris was and whether we think he got a mauling and felt the presenter was the only one who was mauled. The Brexiteers will say that he is believing in Britain and standing up for their rights and being patriotic, it's totally delusional, but it's just the way that needs people think unfortunately, it is being sent up to blame the EU and Ireland for everything and from my experience of Brexiteers recently in the UK, the groundwork is almost complete in brainwashing them into that.

All very true, whilst at the same time Johnson cravingly and cowardly sold the US Ambassador up the river. How can those that claim on the one hand is standing up for Britains rights at the same excuse him for so blatantly giving up all rights to the US.

Its the dichotomy of their positions that make it impossible to discuss with them. It is the same as with Trump supporters.

J Mysterio

trellheim wrote: »

Hunt and Johnson interviews on tv tonight at 7pm, interviewer Andrew Neil. Hunt saying they will be out by Christmas, Johnson by 31st so I expect a redline move from Hunt see my comments above. BBC1 I think

'Out by Christmas' - haha, can't beat that.

Loafing Oaf

declanflynn wrote: »

I'm a beef farmer and first time poster here, I cant wait for the UK to go, the sooner the better I say, was worried but now I don't care, maybe we can send more beef to Europe to replace British lamb

And you're happy to hang your future on that 'maybe'?

20silkcut

declanflynn wrote: »

I'm a beef farmer and first time poster here, I cant wait for the UK to go, the sooner the better I say, was worried but now I don't care, maybe we can send more beef to Europe to replace British lamb there is no getting tru to the Brexit supporters but I'm gonna try here😉

I’m in the same boat myself I was terrified of a hard brexit but now I’m more terrified of any concessions to brexiteers.
I will take any hardship that comes to see the whole brexit project defeated and consigned to the dustbin of history where it belongs.
The vast majority of the entire EU 27 are of the same view as long as that holds true they haven’t a hope.

And I would fully support the government in the implementation of checks on the border to protect the single market and our place within.
It is entirely the UKs fault and the blame is 100% with them for such a terrible outcome.
We don’t want to change anything they are the ones demanding change. This should be drilled home to them.

jm08

declanflynn wrote: »

I'm a beef farmer and first time poster here, I cant wait for the UK to go, the sooner the better I say, was worried but now I don't care, maybe we can send more beef to Europe to replace British lamb there is no getting tru to the Brexit supporters but I'm gonna try here��

I think you are right. They need to go now and we have to suck up the problems and not give in. When they announced their temporary tariffs earlier this year, they took them off most stuff (80%+), but they hit Beef, Cheddar & butter hard, presumably in an attempt to put the squeeze on us. We know now that we can never rely on them to be any kind of a good neighbour.



I was amazed to hear that since 2016, the Dairy Board/Ornua have found new markets for cheddar cheese close to what is exported to the UK. Something like 115K tons go to the UK (which continues) and they have found new markets for 75K tons since then. That is remarkable and maybe suggests that we have been a bit complacent to rely on the UK as it was convenient.

reslfj

J Mysterio wrote: »

'Out by Christmas' - haha, can't beat that.

Which year?

I didn't hear any of them mentioning the year.

I do however think, all EU27 member states will be difficult to persuade to another extension.

A begging BoJo in Brussels - just might get one more extension.

....

Don't forget Oct 31 2019 is close to an optimal timing for the EU27 and a very bad timing for the UK.
UK food import is at its maximum in Q1/Q2 and Brexit having just happened will surely reduce the joy (and volume) of Christmas shopping.

In addition the current very high prices on pork due to Asian Swine Fever in China and Asia will make large parts of the EU farming sector sort of immune to a decline in the export to the UK - of pork but of other agri/meat products too.

These high prices on pork will likely last 24-48 months (until the ASF is under full control) and enable countries like Denmark, Netherlands, France and Belgium to stabilise their new/expanded export markets in Asian and in particular 'bridge over' until the new trade deal with Japan will reach low or zero tariffs on agri products exported into that country.

Lars

PS! Not sure about Irish meat export

Loafing Oaf

Patser wrote: »

Farage has beaten him to it in that line, as new polls show Brexit party support is dropping as supporters return to Tories with Boris's promises.


https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1149780021189517319

I wonder could the polling companies sue him (or Trump) for defamation over such allegations.

InTheShadows

declanflynn wrote: »

I'm a beef farmer and first time poster here, I cant wait for the UK to go, the sooner the better I say, was worried but now I don't care, maybe we can send more beef to Europe to replace British lamb there is no getting tru to the Brexit supporters but I'm gonna try here��

Absolutely Declan. The majority of the UK public voted to leave the EU. Staying in now would just cause so much more trouble long term for Europe as that majority is never going away.

spacecoyote

https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1149760225098063872

Boris being caught with his pants down on the details of Gatt 24.

I'd think if you're making your argument around it, you should have actually read more than just the one paragraph that suits the point you're trying to make

First Up

InTheShadows wrote:

Absolutely Declan. The majority of the UK public voted to leave the EU. Staying in now would just cause so much more trouble long term for Europe as that majority is never going away.

I'd give it 15 years.

Capt'n Midnight

20silkcut wrote: »

I’m in the same boat myself I was terrified of a hard brexit but now I’m more terrified of any concessions to brexiteers.

It's amazing how many Brexiteers are hoping for appeasement from the EU given how the well British appeasement worked out for Europe in the past :rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

spacecoyote wrote: »

https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1149760225098063872

Boris being caught with his pants down on the details of Gatt 24.

I'd think if you're making your argument around it, you should have actually read more than just the one paragraph that suits the point you're trying to make

That is actually downright scary. The UK after 3 years of chaotic steering looks like it is now going to be rudderless.