Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

Strazdas wrote: »

I think Coveney was being deliberately vague here. Use the words "hard border" and they would instantly be seized upon by the Brexiteers and the British press and they would even claim they were blameless and it was Ireland putting up the hard border.

They’ve been saying that already but it’ll be shouted loud by one and all MPs and media at some point to come

BluePlanet

Strazdas wrote: »

I think Coveney was being deliberately vague here. Use the words "hard border" and they would instantly be seized upon by the Brexiteers and the British press and they would even claim they were blameless and it was Ireland putting up the hard border.

Agreed, however to fudge it by having border checks away from the border provides Borris Johnson a boost and also the 'alternative arrangements' they like to flout. It plays into the argument that the border was never needed, never really an issue and was being used cynically to hurt Brexit.

And let's them claim the whole thing was a ruse to trap NI into a customs union with the EU, a sort of annexation of part of the United Kingdom.


Personally i think your proposed Brexiteer sound bite is easier to argue against, than the one I have posted.

An Claidheamh

BluePlanet wrote: »

So Britain wants to torpedo the economy here.

I disagree with Coveney's mealy-mouthed, 'fudge' on having border checks offsite somewhere, away from the actual border. This only strengthen's Brexiteer's POV about the need for the border, and will likely inject inefficiencies in the transit of goods, will also add additional circumvention of controls.

Eventually our EU partners may balk at this fudge, imagine the fallout when something gets exposed (like the horsemeat scandal) and our inspection regime is revealed as inadequate. Not good.

This is why we should go big: clear and unambiguous defense of the SM, with clear border infastructure and no fudging. This will also carry the added benefit of physically isolating NI which will drive unification.

Coveney cannot allow us to become less of a member of the EU due to the whims of a jingoistic Britain which wants to destroy us because they don't know what they want, but it's somebody else's fault.

It would unforgivable.

An Claidheamh

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's a fair way of looking at it. I suppose the 'abandoning" of nationalists wouldn't play out too well though. Even if the long term gain might be a UI.

They were abandoned a long time ago.

They are unwilling subjects of another country.

But, no self respecting Irish person in the North would regard a FG Taoiseach as their leader.

Fine Gael have never defended nationalists rights, they have supported anti-Irish terrorists, collaborated with the British to undermine Ireland, sought to re-write history and regurlarly blame nationalists for the failings of the British/unionists - all out of cowardice.

They are essentially (and unapologetically) Uncle Toms.

The British brought Brexit and the Border.

If Coveney has a problem with British rule in the North, he may say it, he is not making Ireland the problem child of the EU through his fudges and fencesitting.

An Claidheamh

prawnsambo wrote: »

This has already been done. At EU level, Look up the North Sea Mediterranean corridor.


A border poll is solely in the gift of the SoS for NI. We have no role in deciding when it should happen or calling for it to happen. If we did, it would have the opposite effect on attitudes in NI than the one you seem to desire.


All of this can be done, but publicly? Totally counter productive.

1) I think the trade shipping needs to be permanent and intensified.

2) The Irish government could easily apply the pressure, call them on it, the NI sos is a dose, the government have a right to aspire to a united Ireland just like the UK do to avoid one.

3) About time these things were made public, the shots fired at us are.
How else are they to understand?
They don't get subtlety

Leroy42

FG are the only ones looking after the nationalists interest the last few years.

DUP are hell bent on destroying NI, Tories and Labour don't seem bothered either way and SF are busy standing by their principles to bother actually doing anything at all.

trellheim

I am not getting into NI politics here But the NI trade and business numbers I posted up-thread are shockingly bad its falling off a cliff up there. I suppose my point is here that if the UK wont or cant help then lets build silicon Drogheda or Silicon Letterkenny or something ffs , 24/7 rail service and buses every 15 minutes.

Here's the pic



and heres the report, scary stuff

https://ulstereconomix.com/2019/07/08/downturn-deepens-in-northern-ireland-private-sector/

BluePlanet

Leroy42 wrote: »

FG are the only ones looking after the nationalists interest the last few years.

DUP are hell bent on destroying NI, Tories and Labour don't seem bothered either way and SF are busy standing by their principles to bother actually doing anything at all.

This is dragging the conversation off topic.
If FG want to claim to represent northern nationalists they can bloody well stand a candidate for election there.

Stop moaning ffs

It’s been said by many up north in farming and industry that the current Dublin government have done more to protect their interests in brexit than their British counterparts, Who have done the usual of just ignoring NI and not taking it into account at all.
Unfair to say FG/current government don’t care when the opposite is actually true.
And I’m no fan of FG

Seth Brundle

An Claidheamh wrote: »

They were abandoned a long time ago.

They are unwilling subjects of another country.

But, no self respecting Irish person in the North would regard a FG Taoiseach as their leader.

Fine Gael have never defended nationalists rights, they have supported anti-Irish terrorists, collaborated with the British to undermine Ireland, sought to re-write history and regurlarly blame nationalists for the failings of the British/unionists - all out of cowardice.

They are essentially (and unapologetically) Uncle Toms.

The British brought Brexit and the Border.

If Coveney has a problem with British rule in the North, he may say it, he is not making Ireland the problem child of the EU through his fudges and fencesitting.

That's your pro-SF nonsense there.
It's easy to see which party has been standing up for the rights of people of NI. SF chooses to not represent them and spends it's time hurling from the ditches.
SF has done nothing constructive for the people of NI regarding Brexit

An Claidheamh

Seth Brundle wrote: »

That's your pro-SF nonsense there.
It's easy to see which party has been standing up for the rights of people of NI. SF chooses to not represent them and spends it's time hurling from the ditches.
SF has done nothing constructive for the people of NI regarding Brexit

It's not pro-SF, it's anti-FG.

FG does not run candidates in the North, it refuses and has always done so, to condemn attacks on nationalists.

SF has no power to stop Brexit, it campaigned against it and has supported the Irish government's position on it like the rest of the Dáil.

There is nought SF can do until the British make a move.

How are they refusing to represent their electorate? :
Not being the slave of a foreign sectarian queen - which FG won't do?
Not negotiating with the British far right?
Or, not challenging the DUP's trampling of their rights and management of the North?

Sounds like they're doing representing their electorate just fine.

Joe_ Public

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Listened to it again today. Moderator was woeful. She went really hard on Hunt and let Johnson run riot. She never even chased him to answer the questions. He didn’t answer a single one directly.

Such a pointless excercise all in all

Caught up with it today too. It was horrible all the way through, Johnsons cackling and snide one liners were particularly nauseating. Incredible that he's still trotting out the tariff free A24 fantasy line. Hunt vigorously refuted it, but it was clear he doesnt really fully understand it himself. They need to pass the WAB for GATT24 to become relevant. That's all he needed to say to put that lie to bed.

Stop moaning ffs

Article this week interviewing the current WTO Director general and a former and they both said it really really isn’t as simple as brexiteers are making out and it’s a really really bad idea they’re doing this.
It didn’t get any traction at all. James o brien had the journalist on and he said the same thing. It should be everywhere and it’s gone unnoticed

Lackadaisical

I wouldn't be a huge fan of FG myself across many of their socioeconomic approaches, but they've held the UK's feet to the fire on the Good Friday Agreement and brought the whole EU on board to ensure it stays that way.

I really find this notion that present day FG are somehow 'Tories' or that they're somehow unionists is hyperbole from the civil war and really needs to be left there.

The biggest issue the UK's having is they have been unable to find any disagreements on the Northern Ireland issue or Brexit in general between any of the Irish parties - across the spectrum they may disagree on say economic policies, but they've been all on the same page when it has come to Northern Ireland and the border.

There's going to be some hard choices ahead and I really don't see how there's any advantage in splitting Ireland from the EU. We would destroy our economic prospects and stability and that would hugely undermine the progress towards a United Ireland, far more so than any border inspections.

I also don't think we can reasonably trust the UK. If we split away from the EU even only partially to facilitate the Brexiteers what exactly would it achieve? The UK has absolutely no loyalty to Ireland, they just see us as an annoyance to be pushed out of the way at the soonest possible convenience. We wouldn't be throwing our lot in with them, as much as we would be getting into the boot of their car and sacrificing our economic stability and independence.

Brexit will very likely bring about the circumstances for a united Ireland far more rapidly than would have been the case without it, but Ireland placating the UK and diluting our economic prospects wouldn't achieve anything.

kunst nugget

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Article this week interviewing the current WTO Director general and a former and they both said it really really isn’t as simple as brexiteers are making out and it’s a really really bad idea they’re doing this.
It didn’t get any traction at all. James o brien had the journalist on and he said the same thing. It should be everywhere and it’s gone unnoticed

Here's the article in question...

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/jumping-from-league-one-to-league-three-wto-insiders-scathing-assessments-of-a-wto-brexit

BluePlanet

I think a Fudge over the border is the direction FG want to go.
They don't have the stomach to stand up a proper border (it would take years to build).
They don't want to leave the EU obviously.
They don't want to annoy the Brits for fear of reprisals.

What else is there but a some sort of fudge and hopefully the rest of the EU takes pity?

Stop moaning ffs

BluePlanet wrote: »

I think a Fudge over the border is the direction FG want to go.
They don't have the stomach to stand up a proper border (it would take years to build).
They don't want to leave the EU obviously.
They don't want to annoy the Brits for fear of reprisals.

What else is there but a some sort of fudge and hopefully the rest of the EU takes pity?

That’s a unique take.
They’ve been annoying the Brits since the start of all this
How would reprisals work and what form would they take?
Leo and Simon have been openly dismissive of the Brits and their confusion and lack of direction in all this since the start

Professor Moriarty

I wish von der Leyen would get off the fence. Here she is obfuscating on the backstop :

"I think the backstop is of utmost importance and we absolutely know how crucial this nonexistent border is for you,” she said in response to an Irish MEP. “Having the backstop in the Brexit deal is precious, important and has to be defended.”

Joe_ Public

Not a bad salary for 3 months work:

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1148982903524790276

Igotadose

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not a bad salary for 3 months work:

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1148982903524790276

Amusing. Just started this hiring now, eh? Why not, just 3+ months to go to have it all rolled out.

CrabRevolution

BluePlanet wrote: »

So Britain wants to torpedo the economy here.

I disagree with Coveney's mealy-mouthed, 'fudge' on having border checks offsite somewhere, away from the actual border. This only strengthen's Brexiteer's POV about the need for the border, and will likely inject inefficiencies in the transit of goods, will also add additional circumvention of controls.

Eventually our EU partners may balk at this fudge, imagine the fallout when something gets exposed (like the horsemeat scandal) and our inspection regime is revealed as inadequate. Not good.

This is why we should go big: clear and unambiguous defense of the SM, with clear border infastructure and no fudging. This will also carry the added benefit of physically isolating NI which will drive unification.

How many times does it have to be pointed out that the horsemeat scandal was Europe wide, and that the first inspection regime to detect it was Irish? If anything it proves how stringent our measures are.

Call me Al

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not a bad salary for 3 months work:

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1148982903524790276

Jeez, its only taken them 3 years to hire the full complement of people to work on this!
What a shower of incompetents the British public have elected. They're an absolute disgrace.

Joe_ Public

Call me Al wrote: »

Jeez, its only taken them 3 years to hire the full complement of people to work on this!
What a shower of incompetents the British public have elected. They're an absolute disgrace.

To be fair to them, DExEU is also hiring a Head of Ministerial Support Unit to work with the Brexit Sec and their ministers. According to the job spec, "the right candidate will be expected to anticipate and identify issues before they arise."

Looks like they've got it all covered there!!

I think the ever excellent Rafael Behr captures it pretty well in his piece in the Guardian this morning: "They [the UK government] could not cope when presented with a technical treaty when they had imagined a romantic adventure."

BluePlanet

CrabRevolution wrote: »

How many times does it have to be pointed out that the horsemeat scandal was Europe wide, and that the first inspection regime to detect it was Irish? If anything it proves how stringent our measures are.

I'm not blaming anybody in particular, I raised the horsemeat scandal as an example of the type of faux pas we'd all like to avoid.

It would be particularly bad if the border check fudge was found to be inadequate.

Feel free to replace the phrase "horsemeat scandal" with whatever food safety, place of origin or agri-food issue that could potentially blow up in our faces.

BluePlanet

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How would reprisals work and what form would they take?

I don't know, but the darkness and evil inside the Tory mind has no bounds.

Stop moaning ffs

BluePlanet wrote: »

I don't know, but the darkness and evil inside the Tory mind has no bounds.

I didn’t mean that to sound smart so apologies of it sounded like that.
But they can’t ‘do’ anything to us at all.
Except maybe the new Pm instructing the SoS up north to call a border poll.
It’s literally the only ‘revenge’ I can see them being able to enact

Lackadaisical

It seems the Foreign and Commonwealth Office staff are really annoyed about how their colleague was treated:

https://twitter.com/SMcDonaldFCO/status/1148987927193632768?s=20

fly_agaric

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How would reprisals work and what form would they take?

From reading that Irish govt. Brexit preparation document
the "landbridge" is a weak point for trade in goods, especially for time sensitive exports and imports.

There could be chaos there anyway due to Brexit, but a malicious UK
govt. with no scruples whatsoever (coming soon I think once Boris is in) can block our current fast access to the rest of the EU via Wales/England under a pretext + ensure any trade via them gets snarled up in the mess on their Western borders.

IMO that is the most likely "retaliation" scenario where UK has not got what it wants, is under nutty and angry Brexiteer leadership and no longer really cares (for the time being) about the relationship with the rest of the EU (bridges burned). I'm no expert so there could be something I'm not thinking of that might prevent that. I think that is what threats that pop up every now and then to "wreck the Irish economy"/"starve" us into submission refer to. Not just natural effects of Brexit, but some sort of scenario like the above.

Stop moaning ffs

fly_agaric wrote: »

From reading that Irish govt. Brexit preparation document
the "landbridge" is a weak point for trade in goods, especially for time sensitive exports and imports.

There could be chaos there anyway due to Brexit, but a malicious UK
govt. with no scruples whatsoever (coming soon I think once Boris is in) can block our current fast access to the rest of the EU via Wales/England under a pretext + ensure any trade via them gets snarled up in the mess on their Western borders.

IMO that is the most likely "retaliation" scenario where UK has not got what it wants, is under nutty and angry Brexiteer leadership and no longer really cares (for the time being) about the relationship with the rest of the EU (bridges burned). I'm no expert so there could be something I'm not thinking of that might prevent that. I think that is what threats that pop up every now and then to "wreck the Irish economy"/"starve" us into submission refer to. Not just natural effects of Brexit, but some sort of scenario like the above.

Legitimate concerns and possible. But we’ve been rerouting supply lines for the past three years. Of course not everything will be covered but we seem to be insulating against them doing that pretty well so far.

BluePlanet

I also would expect some cherry-picking of the GFA, maybe some kick-the-nationalists decisions on parades.

Add: aggressive positions on fishing