Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

fly_agaric wrote: »

From reading that Irish govt. Brexit preparation document
the "landbridge" is a weak point for trade in goods, especially for time sensitive exports and imports.

There could be chaos there anyway due to Brexit, but a malicious UK
govt. with no scruples whatsoever (coming soon I think once Boris is in) can block our current fast access to the rest of the EU via Wales/England under a pretext + ensure any trade via them gets snarled up in the mess on their Western borders.

IMO that is the most likely "retaliation" scenario where UK has not got what it wants, is under nutty and angry Brexiteer leadership and no longer really cares (for the time being) about the relationship with the rest of the EU (bridges burned). I'm no expert so there could be something I'm not thinking of that might prevent that. I think that is what threats that pop up every now and then to "wreck the Irish economy"/"starve" us into submission refer to. Not just natural effects of Brexit, but some sort of scenario like the above.

That would be a completely crazy route for the UK to take (possible atm I know)
If the EU started to retaliate they could shut Britain down in a couple of weeks.

fly_agaric

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Legitimate concerns and possible. But we’ve been rerouting supply lines for the past three years. Of course not everything will be covered but we seem to be insulating against them doing that pretty well so far.

Yes, that's good. Unfortunately it is by far the faster route I think so there isn't a better option for very perishable goods going either way.

That would be a completely crazy route for the UK to take (possible atm I know)

Yes, it is mad (but we are where we are).

Water John

I doubt if the UK exit without a deal on Oct 31st that the French, at the ports, will make it easy for them.
Boris as PM will have a big task in mending fences with the Foreign Office, but one suspects they were well aware of his capabilities of betrayal.

Stop moaning ffs

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yes, that's good. Unfortunately it is by far the faster route I think so there isn't a better option for very perishable goods going either way.

Not really worried. We’re in the top two or three for food security in the world.
They literally need us more than we need them in that regard.

I don’t think they’ll go down that road though. It’s one thing to be painting us and the Eu as the bad guys pre brexit. As they have been.
It’ll be be a very different tune they’ll be singing post brexit and they have to enter stage two of the negotiations

Igotadose

Water John wrote: »

I doubt if the UK exit without a deal on Oct 31st that the French, at the ports, will make it easy for them.

So, that begs a question. If indeed on 31 October there's no WA signed, are flights from the UK blocked from landing in the EU, the trucks all get blocked, ships blocked from disembarking, drugs stop being shipped, etc. Overnight? Or does it gradually ramp down over a month or two?

Let alone Ireland - milk no longer processed in the ROI that originates in NI, no more routing of products via ROI, etc., right away? Or gradually?

serfboard

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

we’ve been rerouting supply lines for the past three years

And a new service was announced yesterday between Waterford and Rotterdam:

The Irish Examiner wrote:

A new freight shipping route between Waterford and Rotterdam has been welcomed by the Irish Exporters Association.

Chief Executive Simon McKeever has said that the new route will provide extra capacity, allow market diversification and will bring extra empty containers into Ireland.
...
Dutch company BG Freight Line’s deep sea feeder vessel will run a weekly service from Waterford to Rotterdam, increasing capacity for goods travelling to mainland Europe and then on to global markets.

Mr McKeever said the new route will provide extra capacity and will be very useful for agri-food companies keen to get their product to mainland Europe. The journey will be only slightly different in length to using the UK landbridge, he said.

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That would be a completely crazy route for the UK to take (possible atm I know)
If the EU started to retaliate they could shut Britain down in a couple of weeks.

Or even days. Aircraft coud be grounded without much notice. Calais could be made one very closed port for UK lorries.

The EU has some big bzookas.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

Or even days. Aircraft coud be grounded without much notice. Calais could be made one very closed port for UK lorries.

The EU has some big bzookas.

I know they are in chaos at the moment but taking a route like that would be suicidal for them.

Not even Boris would try it on, even in his most vivid Churchillian dreams.

Popeleo

Lackadaisical wrote: »

........(A very good post redacted for brevity).........

There's a vast amount of stuff that will be quite seriously impacted by some of this and it would just be an enormous mistake to assume that because we were able to do things by just unofficially copying UK approaches in the pre-single market days, that we could continue to do that into the future as a full EU member. It just won't work.

Thanks for that post - very informative. You seem like a good person to ask a question I have:

What will and/or should happen with the use of 110 volt tools in the construction sector post-Brexit?

From the outside, it seems like we copied the UK's site safety regulations, so most 220 volt tools are banned but these are fine in the rest of Europe. And because of this, we will be dependent on equipment manufactured in the UK or supplied mainly to their market, which is not great if their future standards move away from ours. Should we change regulations to allow more 220 volt gear that can be sourced from the EU instead? If it is safe enough for Germany, is there any reason we shouldn't change? For bigger items, three-phase is common enough on sites here and that is basically 3 x 220 volts.

Stop moaning ffs

If it all goes really bad We here could be looking at a million Irish passport holding Brits coming here as brexit refugees. It won’t get dystopian over there over night. But certain systems and supply lines being cut off will happen really soon and have knock on effects.

fash

BluePlanet wrote: »

I also would expect some cherry-picking of the GFA, maybe some kick-the-nationalists decisions on parades.

Add: aggressive positions on fishing

Use of nationalist border areas in NI for storing nuclear waste - as already suggested by UK.
(Although others counter that providing IRA with a dirty bomb, a no deal and a grievance regarding nuclear waste may not be a great strategy).

Water John

The whole borders will not shut. What will happen is any truck without its paperwork very correct will be parked up, for hours maybe days. So the truck from Scotland with fresh lamb carcases that was on BBC the other night, will get very smelly indeed.
The factory will only need to be short, one part, to stop the whole assembly line.

MrMusician18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it all goes really bad We here could be looking at a million Irish passport holding Brits coming here as brexit refugees. It won’t get dystopian over there over night. But certain systems and supply lines being cut off will happen really soon and have knock on effects.

In think that's beyond exaggeration. The measures the EU is taking to protect itself will also shield the UK from the worst effects of no deal.

Popeleo

Popeleo wrote: »

Thanks for that post - very informative. You seem like a good person to ask a question I have:

What will and/or should happen with the use of 110 volt tools in the construction sector post-Brexit?

From the outside, it seems like we copied the UK's site safety regulations, so most 220 volt tools are banned but these are fine in the rest of Europe. And because of this, we will be dependent on equipment manufactured in the UK or supplied mainly to their market, which is not great if their future standards move away from ours. Should we change regulations to allow more 220 volt gear that can be sourced from the EU instead? If it is safe enough for Germany, is there any reason we shouldn't change? For bigger items, three-phase is common enough on sites here and that is basically 3 x 220 volts.

So you're willing to lower safety standards?

Stop moaning ffs

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In think that's beyond exaggeration. The measures the EU is taking to protect itself will also shield the UK from the worst effects of no deal.

It is extreme but food shortages are a reality. 10% of businesses becoming unviable overnight due to supply chain breakage at worst and increased tariffs overnight are also a reality. This in the case of no deal.

MrMusician18

Sam Russell wrote: »

Or even days. Aircraft coud be grounded without much notice. Calais could be made one very closed port for UK lorries.

The EU has some big bzookas.

In that case then everything is on the line, including British and US commitment to the mutual defence clause in NATO

J Mysterio

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it all goes really bad We here could be looking at a million Irish passport holding Brits coming here as brexit refugees. It won’t get dystopian over there over night. But certain systems and supply lines being cut off will happen really soon and have knock on effects.

I'm actually a bit concerned about that.

MrMusician18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It is extreme but food shortages are a reality. 10% of businesses becoming unviable overnight due to supply chain breakage at worst and increased tariffs overnight are also a reality. This in the case of no deal.

Shortages of some foodstuffs is a possibility but there's a tendency on this thread every now and again for Mad Max type predictions for the UK if it opts for no deal. Indeed, some posters positively have a hard on for such a scenario - but even in no deal, planes will still fly for example. The measures the EU takes to protect itself will also protect the UK from the worst effects of no deal.

No deal is likely to result in a UK recession, but States can survive and recover from even the deepest of recessions without major civil strife or collapsing into anarchy. An influx of British refugees?! Come on!

We should not lose the run of ourselves here, the worst that will happen to the UK is an economic recession (one that's due now anyway) and increased internal pressure for Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede.

Beechwoodspark

Can Anyone give one reason why the EU should soften its stance at the moment and “compromise”?

Stop moaning ffs

J Mysterio wrote: »

I'm actually a bit concerned about that.

We were throwing them out like confetti and still are. What was it like 800,000 applications from the uk within 8 months last year? It could very well be more than a million now. Who knows?
If they decide to turn up here it will cause huge problems. Even if it was a steady low enough influx

johnnyskeleton

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it all goes really bad We here could be looking at a million Irish passport holding Brits coming here as brexit refugees. It won’t get dystopian over there over night. But certain systems and supply lines being cut off will happen really soon and have knock on effects.

They dont even need an Irish passport. UK citizens have an unrestricted right to move and live here if they wish. There are probably a few southern unionists who are twenry generations living here that still dont have Irish citizenship and only have UK citizenship. So its probably up to 60m people!

The ones with Irish citizenship will have EU treaty rights, so would be more likely to go to France or Germany.

In reality though Im not sure they would come to Ireland as a first preference.

Stop moaning ffs

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Shortages of some foodstuffs is a possibility but there's a tendency on this thread every now and again for Mad Max type predictions for the UK if it opts for no deal. Indeed, some posters positively have a hard on for such a scenario - but even in no deal, planes will still fly for example. The measures the EU takes to protect itself will also protect the UK from the worst effects of no deal.

No deal is likely to result in a UK recession, but States can survive and recover from even the deepest of recessions without major civil strife or collapsing into anarchy. An influx of British refugees?! Come on!

We should not lose the run of ourselves here, the worst that will happen to the UK is an economic recession (one that's due now anyway) and increased internal pressure for Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede.

I’d agree except for look at the state of the discourse and those stirring the trouble up from the top down. Farage etc saying he’d take arms. They’ve been infected by a far right malignancy in their media and mindset.
It just takes one tiny thing in any shortage for this to get ugly really quickly.

J Mysterio

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We were throwing them out like confetti and still are. What was it like 800,000 applications from the uk within 8 months last year? It could very well be more than a million now. Who knows?
If they decide to turn up here it will cause huge problems. Even if it was a steady low enough influx

Could be a boon to the economy, but could also be a bit problematic in social terms.

How ironic would it be though? For so long, Irish going to UK for work and promise of 'betterment'. To think it could flip right around due to the disastrous policies and incompetent leadership of just a few Tory governments.

Stop moaning ffs

J Mysterio wrote: »

Could be a boon to the economy, but could also be a bit problematic in social terms.

How ironic would it be though? For so long, Irish going to UK for work and promise of 'betterment'. To think it could flip right around due to the disastrous policies and incompetent leadership of just a few Tory governments.

Exactly. Id find that fascinating if it happened. You’d see elements in the AH brigade very confused very quickly. They wouldn’t be able to complain about white immigrants coming over here etc
They don’t even see British born Muslims as British some of them.
But they soon would react against them anyways


It would be a second british colonisation of Ireland in a way. But doing it the Irish way.
Infest rather than imperialise.

MrMusician18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’d agree except for look at the state of the discourse and those stirring the trouble up from the top down. Farage etc saying he’d take arms. They’ve been infected by a far right malignancy in their media and mindset.
It just takes one tiny thing in any shortage for this to get ugly really quickly.

The general population in the UK don't have access to arms so unless half the army mutiny you are not going to see the kind of strife typical in a true civil war (which is what you are describing)

Maybe they will charge at each other with cricket bats, or knives and acid in the London boroughs....


Why are we even entertaining this line of ridiculous discussion?!

trashcan

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Mad Max type predictions for the UK if it opts for no deal. Indeed, some posters positively have a hard on for such a scenario - .

In fairness, the attitude of a lot of the Brexit types is enough to make you wish such a scenario on them.

johnnyskeleton

MrMusician18 wrote: »

No deal is likely to result in a UK recession, but States can survive and recover from even the deepest of recessions without major civil strife or collapsing into anarchy. An influx of British refugees?! Come on!

We should not lose the run of ourselves here, the worst that will happen to the UK is an economic recession (one that's due now anyway) and increased internal pressure for Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede.

There are unlikely to be UK citizen refugees but there are some realistic scenarios for increased migration from the Uk to Ireland. Bombardier being bought by a Spanish firm and their Belfast factory and workers relocated to Dundalk. Retirees moving to West Cork. Multi national banking and tech firms moving to Dublin. Ditto professional services firms who want a toe hold in the EU. Ireland, for example, will be the main common law EU country, so its not beyond the beyonds that US and UK companies wanting to do business with the EU will draw up contracts in Dublin.

jm08

BluePlanet wrote: »

I'm not blaming anybody in particular, I raised the horsemeat scandal as an example of the type of faux pas we'd all like to avoid.

It would be particularly bad if the border check fudge was found to be inadequate.

Feel free to replace the phrase "horsemeat scandal" with whatever food safety, place of origin or agri-food issue that could potentially blow up in our faces.

Bearing in mind that the European Commission Food and Veterinary Office is based in Dunsany, Co. Meath, I doubt if they will be slipping up in the country they are based in. When talking about Mercusor last week, Phil Hogan mentioned that they would be doing all the inspections and approvals for South American beef coming into the EU.

Junkyard Tom

MrMusician18 wrote: »

We should not lose the run of ourselves here, the worst that will happen to the UK is an economic recession

That's fairly optimistic. Let's not forget the riots in England in 2011. Wait until the English/British public find out that a spat among the 1% has caused them to lose their jobs/homes in large numbers. If it happened here in Ireland I'd fully expect there to be mass unrest.

Brexit is an opportunity to engage in class-war against the British public for people like Jacob Rees Mogg - nothing less. Those who engage in class war should not be surprised if people begin to fight back.

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The general population in the UK don't have access to arms so unless half the army mutiny you are not going to see the kind of strife typical in a true civil war (which is what you are describing)

Maybe they will charge at each other with cricket bats, or knives and acid in the London boroughs....


Why are we even entertaining this line of ridiculous discussion?!

You don't need 'arms' to cause civil unrest.

Whatever we say, they are certainly making contingency plans for it over there, weren't they talking about moving the Queen at one point.
If they are making contingency then it is possible.