Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Can Anyone give one reason why the EU should soften its stance at the moment and “compromise”?

So....

Anyone ???

DOCARCH

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So....

Anyone ???

It shouldn't, but it would be to avoid no deal.

MrMusician18

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

That's fairly optimistic. Let's not forget the riots in England in 2011. Wait until the English/British public find out that a spat among the 1% has caused them to lose their jobs/homes in large numbers. If it happened here in Ireland I'd fully expect there to be mass unrest.

Brexit is an opportunity to engage in class-war against the British public for people like Jacob Rees Mogg - nothing less. Those who engage in class war should not be surprised if people begin to fight back.

It's not fairly optimistic, it's just fairly realistic. Will there be protests? Certainly, Could they're be riots after those protests? Potentially. Could there be a total breakdown in social order in the UK resulting in a million British refugees turning up in Ireland, as suggested a page or two earlier on this thread? This is so ridiculous that it doesn't even merit a discussion.

The UK had an effective civil war in NI and it didn't lead to refugee camps on the southern side of the border (even if there was contingency plans for them,). Tesco running out of fresh strawberries won't either.

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It's not fairly optimistic, it's just fairly realistic. Will there be protests? Certainly, Could they're be riots after those protests? Potentially. Could there be a total breakdown in social order in the UK resulting in a million British refugees turning up in Ireland, as suggested a page or two earlier on this thread? This is so ridiculous that it doesn't even merit a discussion.

The UK had an effective civil war in NI and it didn't lead to refugee camps on the southern side of the border (even if there was contingency plans for them,). Tesco running out of fresh strawberries won't either.

It did actually.

https://www.rte.ie/archives/exhibitions/1042-northern-ireland-1969/1048-august-1969/320459-refugees-arrive-from-northern-ireland/
https://www.independent.ie/regionals/droghedaindependent/news/learn-lessons-from-the-past-urge-refugees-from-troubles-27108010.html

BTW I am not claiming we will be overrun by refugees, just that there is high potential for destabilising civil unrest.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

It shouldn't, but it would be to avoid no deal.

To elaborate, the more/longer this goes on, the more I worry the EU will blink and Ireland will come under intense pressure to accept time limit to backstop.

Italian economy is a basket case (could put the Greek crisis into the h'penny place) and German economy is a little shaky.

EU will now be more anxious than ever to avoid no deal/lesson the potential impact of a possible economic shock.

Stop moaning ffs

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It's not fairly optimistic, it's just fairly realistic. Will there be protests? Certainly, Could they're be riots after those protests? Potentially. Could there be a total breakdown in social order in the UK resulting in a million British refugees turning up in Ireland, as suggested a page or two earlier on this thread? This is so ridiculous that it doesn't even merit a discussion.

The UK had an effective civil war in NI and it didn't lead to refugee camps on the southern side of the border (even if there was contingency plans for them,). Tesco running out of fresh strawberries won't either.

I wasn’t suggesting there would be a million immigrants. I said a million people now have the option to emigrate here.
Even if a quarter of that number turn up and over 5 years it would be a hugely disruptive effect on everything

Water John

Johnny, 'retirees moving to West Cork', no thanks.
When things get in any way iffy after Brexit, remember half the population will be really pissed off, as they voted to stay.

MrMusician18

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It did actually.

https://www.rte.ie/archives/exhibitions/1042-northern-ireland-1969/1048-august-1969/320459-refugees-arrive-from-northern-ireland/
https://www.independent.ie/regionals/droghedaindependent/news/learn-lessons-from-the-past-urge-refugees-from-troubles-27108010.html

BTW I am not claiming we will be overrun by refugees, just that there is high potential for destabilising civil unrest.

Interesting. I knew the Irish govt were planning to receive large numbers of refugees after Bloody Sunday but the numbers never materialised in the volume that they had contingency plans in place for.

My point still stands though. They're is a tendency for some on thread to predict the absolute worst even when we know the no deal planning by the EU will mitigate the worst of it.

The recession in the UK may be brutal, it may lead to Scotland leaving but it's not going to collapse the remainder of the UK state.

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Interesting. I knew the Irish govt were planning to receive large numbers of refugees after Bloody Sunday but the numbers never materialised in the volume that they had contingency plans in place for.

My point still stands though. They're is a tendency for some on thread to predict the absolute worst even when we know the no deal planning by the EU will mitigate the worst of it.

The recession in the UK may be brutal, it may lead to Scotland leaving but it's not going to collapse the remainder of the UK state.

Depends on what you mean by 'collapse'. If you have a few decades of political instability and a break down of law and order then that would be a collapse in British terms, to my mind anyhow.

Hermy

DOCARCH wrote: »

To elaborate, the more/longer this goes on, the more I worry the EU will blink and Ireland will come under intense pressure to accept time limit to backstop.

Italian economy is a basket case (could put the Greek crisis into the h'penny place) and German economy is a little shaky.

EU will now be more anxious than ever to avoid no deal/lesson the potential impact of a possible economic shock.

What about the UK economy?
How strong is their hand when it comes to blinking or not blinking?

Stop moaning ffs

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Interesting. I knew the Irish govt were planning to receive large numbers of refugees after Bloody Sunday but the numbers never materialised in the volume that they had contingency plans in place for.

My point still stands though. They're is a tendency for some on thread to predict the absolute worst even when we know the no deal planning by the EU will mitigate the worst of it.

The recession in the UK may be brutal, it may lead to Scotland leaving but it's not going to collapse the remainder of the UK state.

Leo said at some point that the minute they announced the referendum over there, our government started planning for every outcome and eventuality. Meaning no deal.
I’m no FG fan but they’ve played a blinder on this so far.
I wouldn’t imagine planning is possible for an unknown variable like numbers of economic migrants but I doubt they’ve overlooked it either.
It’s not like the Chinese or African immigrant situation where ‘only those that can afford it to get here, get here’.
Britain is a cheap €50 flight away for everyone. So it’s a factor.
That’s not mad maxing anything.
It’s a legitimate issue that may become a reality. It would be foolish not to at least acknowledge it even if we can’t prepare for it.

woohoo!!!

We don't know what a post no deal UK will look like. All we know is there are big divisions and the pressure will only increase. It's a situation in which a lot could happen. London is certainly not going to be concentrating on NI. But events as ever could change all that.

jm08

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Interesting. I knew the Irish govt were planning to receive large numbers of refugees after Bloody Sunday but the numbers never materialised in the volume that they had contingency plans in place for.

My point still stands though. They're is a tendency for some on thread to predict the absolute worst even when we know the no deal planning by the EU will mitigate the worst of it.

The recession in the UK may be brutal, it may lead to Scotland leaving but it's not going to collapse the remainder of the UK state.

There was a refugee camp in Kilworth (army). Shannon town grew very quickly with people escaping the troubles in NI.

Stop moaning ffs

Documentary on one had an episode last year I think interviewing catholic’s from up north from families that did come down as refugees and were homed I think in convents and camps.how they felt like they were different but the same and overall a holiday camp vibe. It’s a lovely listen I’ll try find the link.

FrancieBrady

They have plans apparently to make citizen No. 1 a refugee. I wonder is Butlins, Mosney still available?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/03/queen-to-be-evacuated-if-brexit-turns-ugly-reports

DOCARCH

Hermy wrote: »

What about the UK economy?
How strong is their hand when it comes to blinking or not blinking?

The Tories don't appear to care! Both PM candidates seem to be quite willing to let businesses go down if that's what it takes to Brexit!

A Dub in Glasgo

Rumours in Scotland that a poll done for the UK Govt about Scottish Independence has panicked the UK Govt hence Mays rushed visit to Scotland last week attack the SNP. I have spoken to quite a few people in work who did not vote or voted no in the last independence referendum who are dismayed at what is going on and have stated they will vote Yes next time (if the UK Govt allow it)

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1146317217421832192

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1148937413567188992

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1149030314003566593

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Depends on what you mean by 'collapse'. If you have a few decades of political instability and a break down of law and order then that would be a collapse in British terms, to my mind anyhow.

There were riots about the Poll Tax.

The miners strike was basically civil unrest - but confined to the mining areas.

The London riots caused by police shooting dead Mark Duggan. The riots went on 5 days and cost 5 lives and a lot of destruction and looting.

It coud easily break out again. It will not take much as there is a lot of anger out there.

Then there is NI.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

There were riots about the Poll Tax.

The miners strike was basically civil unrest - but confined to the mining areas.

The London riots caused by police shooting dead Mark Duggan. The riots went on 5 days and cost 5 lives and a lot of destruction and looting.

It coud easily break out again. It will not take much as there is a lot of anger out there.

Then there is NI.

The Miners strike polarised the whole of the UK though and it is debatable if they are over it to this day.

Stop moaning ffs

It’s volatile already over there and we haven’t even gotten to the hard part yet.
That’s not an exaggeration either.

Spanish Eyes

I think some may be overreacting a tad here re Brits of Irish heritage qualifying for Irish Citizenship.

It is all about Free Movement. Once they have an Irish passport they can go anywhere in the EU, not just here.

Calm down.

Stop moaning ffs

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think some may be overreacting a tad here re Brits of Irish heritage qualifying for Irish Citizenship.

It is all about Free Movement. Once they have an Irish passport they can go anywhere in the EU, not just here.

Calm down.

The irony though.
Free movement is one of the main issues their against.
The main issue and from an ugly place if you look at it

Water John

Remember 1981 Toxteth Riots, very little can ignite such civil unrest. If it is then very difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.

InTheShadows

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Listened to it again today. Moderator was woeful. She went really hard on Hunt and let Johnson run riot. She never even chased him to answer the questions. He didn’t answer a single one directly.

Such a pointless excercise all in all

Thought it was the exact opposite tbh.

Spanish Eyes

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The irony though.
Free movement is one of the main issues their against.
The main issue and from an ugly place if you look at it

I have no doubt that the majority of those who qualified for an Irish passport are Remainers. Some outliers are to be expected of course, but in the main that's what I think. It is a great Insurance Policy to have really and they are more fortunate than many in that regard.

Free movement is worth its weight in gold now.

FrancieBrady

Water John wrote: »

Remember 1981 Toxteth Riots, very little can ignite such civil unrest. If it is then very difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.

A whole lot of other stuff can be unleashed too. And it isn't exactly a content society.

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Not really worried. We’re in the top two or three for food security in the world.
They literally need us more than we need them in that regard.

I don’t think they’ll go down that road though. It’s one thing to be painting us and the Eu as the bad guys pre brexit. As they have been.
It’ll be be a very different tune they’ll be singing post brexit and they have to enter stage two of the negotiations

I actually had a look at the rankings there. We're second. Behind Singapore and ahead of the US and UK in joint third.

1st Singapore 85.9
2nd Ireland 85.5
=3rd United Kingdom 85.0
=3rd United States 85.0
5th Netherlands 84.7
6th Australia 83.7
7th Switzerland 83.5
8th Finland 83.3
9th Canada 83.2
10th France 82.9
11th Germany 82.7
=12th Norway 82.2
=12th Sweden 82.2
14th Austria 82.1
15th New Zealand 81.3
16th Denmark 80.9
17th Belgium 80.2
18th Japan 79.9
19th Portugal 79.3
20th Israel 78.6

Pretty decent read I thought. Was not expecting Singapore to be top though!
https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index

Professor Moriarty

Corbyn taking a serious cold shower on Panorama. Johnson and the ERG will be delighted. Just when Brexiteers needs proper opposition Labour continues to be rudderless.

Charles Babbage

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I actually had a look at the rankings there. We're second. Behind Singapore and ahead of the US and UK in joint third.

1st Singapore 85.9
2nd Ireland 85.5
=3rd United Kingdom 85.0
=3rd United States 85.0


Pretty decent read I thought. Was not expecting Singapore to be top though!
https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index

Singapore is only top because of affordability, which in turn reflects that its neighbours are poorer, it still has to import food.

Popeleo

Deleted User wrote: »

So you're willing to lower safety standards?

No, just to see if a different approach is equally safe and choosing which regulations we copy and paste. Why does every other EU country use 220 volts? If 110 volts was that much safer, surely they would have changed already. Comparing accident statistics should be relatively easy

There might be less chance of direct electrocution with a blast of 110 volts (might only get a 55 volts shock if the transformer is wired correctly) but there are no fuses in industrial plugs and using RCDs properly should make 220 volts pretty safe.

Also, I have heard of a few fires caused by using 110 volts improperly. With 110 volts, the ampage is double that of 220 volts to power the same wattage motor, so thicker cables and maybe a bigger 32 amp plug might be needed where a skinnier cable and a 16 amp plug would be adequate for the same machine in 220 volts. But that is too complicated for some people who just change the 32 amp plug for a smaller one.....

Even the USA uses 220 volts for large domestic items like cookers and washing machines. Must be a good reason for it.


Anyway, that is a bit of a sidetrack. Back to meatier stuff-

How many extra votes would Corbyn get in a snap election if he pledged to make Sadiq Khan the new UK ambassador to the US?
😀