DCM 2019 - Mentored Novices Thread

py

Some required watching that popped up in my youtube feed today.

Treviso

Dealerz2.0 wrote: »

Thanks Treviso......I'm now reliving the Actual Vs Target minutes differential allllll over again!!!!

No problem F :D A bit of motivation for you

This year will be your redemption though, with the training you're putting in

Mr. Guappa

Thanks Treviso for sharing that prediction chart . You'll find that the people who nailed their target picked a realistic (and slightly conservative) goal and heeded the advice to keep the pace in check for the first seven miles.

In hindsight I have no idea what I was at thinking I could run sub 4 off a 1:54 HM. While there is lots of value in comparing other people's HM vs Marathon times, it's also important to note that the raw numbers only tell a small part of the story. Maybe that person drastically under-performed in the HM, so the Marathon time looks great by comparison. I was certainly guilty of finding one example to back up my belief that I could run sub 4, and ignoring every other example (and all advice, and common sense) which would have told me it was an extreme long shot.

This post and the related article give a good insight into how HM times translate into Marathon times for relatively inexperienced runners. Interestingly, the difference between my HM pace and my marathon pace was 54 seconds (8:42min/mi versus 9:36min/mi).

Huzzah!

Mr. Guappa wrote: »

This post and the related article give a good insight into how HM times translate into Marathon times for relatively inexperienced runners. Interestingly, the difference between my HM pace and my marathon pace was 54 seconds (8:42min/mi versus 9:36min/mi).

This was spot on to the second for me, too.

Karlos80

Huzzah! wrote: »

This was spot on to the second for me, too.

This. I've actually added 54-55 sec/mile to my HM pace for my PMP (just realised I actually have to run it, or it doesn't count 😂). I'm fully planning for a negative split, so starting off even slower, I really need to implement this (slower 1st half) on last few long runs.

Now to wait for Mr. G to scupper this and give more realistic PMP 😉

Edit: 😠= laughing emoji
Why are my emoji's not posting?

Doc76

Huzzah! wrote: »

This was spot on to the second for me, too.

This is super helpful, Mr G and Huzzah thanks. That would put me at approx 11:15 min miles which would be a 4:55 marathon... think this is what I’ll aim for give or take a few minutes

Mr. Guappa

DeepBlue wrote: »

Target DCM times:
A Goal (with all going swimmingly) : 3hr 40min
B Goal : 3hr 50min
C Goal: 3hr 59min


Just waiting for Mr Guappa to get to work......:pac:

I think 3:40 is absolutely a possibility for you. Your times would certainly suggest that you'd be there or thereabouts, although obviosuly the great unknown is if you'll have the endurance - your cycling background would help in that regard. On the negative side - Charleville is a flatter, faster HM than most, so maybe leads to us over-estimating things a touch. Also, you'd need have the discipline to keep the pace in check for the early going. It might come down to whether you want to risk going for 3:40 and potentially having a tough race if things go south, or "settling" for a more "comfortable" 3:45-3:50 type time.

rizzee wrote: »

I don't have much of a plan I just want to finish and enjoy the day, especially for my first marathon . I don't mind running 7 minute kilometres on the day, I just want to soak in the atmosphere and get over that line!!

Looking forward to getting back into training tomorrow after 2 days rest.

Tough one this because your HM time was outstanding. But, your training has been hit and miss at times (at least what's logged on strava). You are definitely capable of much faster than 7min/km anyway. 6min/km should be well within your capabilities, while still allowing you to soak in the atmosphere. Your aim to just finish and enjoy the day are really great goals for a first marathon.

Mr. Guappa

Sorbet wrote: »

I'm a bit lazy so haven't done my race report yet but will do the DCM pacing homework as am dying to have a target confirmed.

Race series results:
10k 53.13
10 mile 1h 34m 08s
Half 2h 02m 56s
I've done all pmp miles at 6.30 per km.

10k and half were the better results, 10 mile probably didn't push myself hard enough. Calculator says 4.18 but I feel 4.30 might be a better target. My priority is truly to get through the distance without walking and if I'm honest I don't think I'd be hugely more pleased with a 4.20 than a 4.29.59 so I am hoping mentors will think that 4.30 is an achievable target.

I'm so embarassed now when I think of my first post on this thread saying I'd love sub 4hr - how little I knew then!

I'm not sure which calculator you are using to get 4:18 but it is definitely on the optimistic side! 4:30 seems just about bang on from more appropriate calculators and estimates. The question of endurance in the second half of the race is something that can't be answered until the day itself, but you've nailed the training to date, so no reason why you shouldn't be able to get that 4:30.

Still no sign of that race report

Rega wrote: »

Week 13 went fine for me.

Tuesday: 5 miles @ 10.38 mins per mile
Wednesday: 5 miles @ 10.30 mins per mile
Thursday: 5 miles @ 10.47 mins per mile
Saturday: 20 miles @ 11.05 mins per mile

I'm smothered with a head cold so didn't go out on a recovery run today. A rest day was nice.

As for Dublin I'd love to get in under 4 hours. My half marathon time was 1.48. It's highly aspirational, I know. As long as I get around the course I'll be happy enough.

Saying that, if I'm approaching the finish line at 4hrs and 2 minutes I'm going to sit down on the road for ten minutes before I cross the finish line. I don't want to finish up feeling I could have gotten my target, leaving me with an itch to scratch. I've no interest in doing this again. My wife has been incredibly patient and helpful and has taken on a lot more with the kids but I do get the feeling (like others here) that she's glad the end is in sight. (I am too!)

The first pre-requisite for a sub-4 marathon is generally a sub 1:50 HM - so you've ticked that box. You have trained very consistently, so sub 4 is definitely possible if you run a smart race. Not guaranteed by any means of course. Please don't lie down on the course though - for one thing you will get trampled and two, a reminder that you stated in your first post:

Dream is 3:59:59. Hopefully under 4:30. Not too fussed to be honest once I can keep going and finish it.

Huzzah!

DBB wrote: »

I had started this journey thinking of 4:30hrs, at that stage not really knowing anything about how to scale up paces from shorter races, but I knew from previous races I could do 10km in about an hour, so in my ignorance scales it up x4, and added a bit of wriggle room!
I stuck 4:30 in as my predicted time when entering DCM, so I don't really understand how I've ended up in Wave 3, but no matter. I'll start off at the back of Wave 3 and get myself absorbed into Wave 4 with a nice, gentle start. Would that work?

I've learned a lot since about pacing! Times this year so far:
June 2019, Women's Mini Marathon 10km @ 10.05 mins/mile, 1:02:12
July 2019, Edenderry 10 miles @ 9:59 mins/mile, 1:39:39
Aug 2019, Tullamore HM @ 10:22 mins/mile, 2:15:58

So, based on the rough guideline of HMx2 + 20mins, I'm looking at around 4:52ish, but happy with sub 5hrs too.
Sub 5hrs is an avg of 11:25 mins/mile.
4:52ish is an avg of 11:08 mins/mile.

My thoughts are to start out with the 5hr pacers in view for the first 7-8 miles, then see how I'm doing and all going well, see can I get the 4:50 pacers into view towards the end.
I hope that sounds do-able and sensible?

I think start with the 5-hour guys and see how you go. Do a systems check at halfway and if feeling good, pick it up slightly. Do the same after Heartbreak Hill. I wouldn't go mad trying to catch the next pace group. A good strong finish and you probably won't care if it's 5 hours or 4:52.

Rojo

From the posts over the last few pages, I've definitely been a bit over ambitious with my target time!!

Mr. Guappa

kyomi wrote: »

Thanks for all the race reports, I've been enjoying reading them over the last couple of days!

Just to add my recent stats for the homework. I know they're less informative/useful than some others because I didn't race the half marathon.

5K time: 21:50
10K time: 46:56
10 mi time: 1:19:50 (this is actually from last November, but I've been training continuously since then)
Half-marathon time: 1:56 (run at PMP of 9 min/mile)

As I said way back at the start, my primary goal is to finish. But I keep wondering if there might be a tiny chance of going sub-4. I know the sensible thing to do is just finish this year and then next time train hard for a sub-4. But I promised my other half that he could do the marathon next year (we have a toddler so there's no way we could both train), so I won't get another chance for at least a couple of years.

I suppose it's been on my mind for a while, which is why I've settled on a PMP of 9 min/miles. I'm conscious that, because it's my first, I've no idea what the last 6 miles will be like, and I'd worry about blowing up and not finishing at all.

If I decide to do the sensible thing and Just Finish, I'll have to pick some kind of time, so maybe 4:30. I feel like I could at least get to mile 20 doing 10 min miles, since I've done that distance in my LSRs at 10:30. That would give me 4:22, and then I'd add on at least another 8 minutes to account for the extra distance run, plus a possible slowing down in the last six miles.

As you can tell, I haven't been overthinking this at all, no sirree!

Haha - this marathon business does become a bit of an obsession :pac:

I think, that provided you start appropriately conservative, then 4:00 is very much a possibility. Your 10 mile time would indicate it's achieveable, and the fact that you ran the HM pretty comforatbly at PMP also helps. Plus, you've put in a really good training block.

ByrneDCMbrian wrote: »

Evening folks

Half went well for me came in at 1.51.30 pace wise tried to stay in 8.20 t0 8.30 a mile felt very comfortable going around. Didn't try and kill myself.

For dcm I still hope for 4 hrs feel it's in me if all goes well on the day. Plan to keep the pace 9.09 a mile till the 20 mile mark and then if anything in the tank try push on then.

It's a good sign that a 1:51 HM felt comortable - and given that you didn't race it flat out (I think?) then it seems wiser to use your Bohermeen time as a guide. That Bohermeen time suggests that sub 4 is very doable, provided you keep things under control early on. I would reconsider the strategy of sticking rigidly to 9.09 until 20 miles - it would be far better to be at least a minute behind target through 7 miles. Also, bear in mind that you will end up running probably 26.5 miles on the day, so approx an average of 9 min/mile will be required for sub 4.

passinginterest

Mr. Guappa wrote: »

Thanks Treviso for sharing that prediction chart . You'll find that the people who nailed their target picked a realistic (and slightly conservative) goal and heeded the advice to keep the pace in check for the first seven miles.

In hindsight I have no idea what I was at thinking I could run sub 4 off a 1:54 HM. While there is lots of value in comparing other people's HM vs Marathon times, it's also important to note that the raw numbers only tell a small part of the story. Maybe that person drastically under-performed in the HM, so the Marathon time looks great by comparison. I was certainly guilty of finding one example to back up my belief that I could run sub 4, and ignoring every other example (and all advice, and common sense) which would have told me it was an extreme long shot.

This post and the related article give a good insight into how HM times translate into Marathon times for relatively inexperienced runners. Interestingly, the difference between my HM pace and my marathon pace was 54 seconds (8:42min/mi versus 9:36min/mi).

Christ, if I add the suggested time I’ll come in about 40 seconds over the 4hrs. Again. I don’t know whether I’d laugh or cry if I ended up with an identical time. On the plus side I feel like I ran a very conservative half and had another few minutes in the tank if I’d attacked it.

kyomi

Mr. Guappa wrote: »

Haha - this marathon business does become a bit of an obsession :pac:

I think, that provided you start appropriately conservative, then 4:00 is very much a possibility. Your 10 mile time would indicate it's achieveable, and the fact that you ran the HM pretty comforatbly at PMP also helps. Plus, you've put in a really good training block.

Thanks for the vote of confidence Mr Guappa! Still wobbling to and fro about what's the right way to approach it. Well, I have a few weeks to decide.

You also said in reply to ByrneDCMbrian

I would reconsider the strategy of sticking rigidly to 9.09 until 20 miles - it would be far better to be at least a minute behind target through 7 miles. Also, bear in mind that you will end up running probably 26.5 miles on the day, so approx an average of 9 min/mile will be required for sub 4.

and I think this is really useful for me too. I don't like running with pacers because of the despair when you lose them or can't keep up. So I'm happy to go out with my Garmin and a very exact pacing strategy!

skyblue46

Following on from the table posted above by Treviso I thought I would post a table that RasTa very kindly compiled on the day of DCM 17 for our novices group. It might be helpful to you. I'd suggest you look at things like the numbers who hit or missed their target, the number of these who ran negative splits, how slow many of their first 10k times were slower than PMP even allowing for fresh legs (a very definite strategy for us that year), how many were on target at halfway etc etc....plenty of numbers to get a look at.

Bib No.| Username | Target Time | 10k | hm | 30k | Actual Time
3012| skyblue46 | 03:54:59 | 56:41 | 1:57:10 | 2:44:39 | 3:47:20
xxx | quickbeam | 05:59:59 |
9240| candamir | 03:59:59 | 58:01 | 1:59:35 | 2:49:59 | 3:58:42
17824 | kellygirl | 04:29:59 | 1:05:19 | 2:13:58 | 3:08:14 | 4:20:05
12429 | Damo 2k9 | 03:59:59 | 57:10 | 1:59:21 | 2:49:14 | 3:57:57
13388 | Positron | 04:29:59 | 1:01:57 | 2:11:42 | 3:20:51 | 4:55:27
6501| Lazare | 03:58:xx | 59:58 | 2:00:31 | 2:49:02 | 3:58:08
xxx|Leesider| 04:59:59|
2629| clickerquicklic | 03:16:29 | 47.29 | 1.39.47 | 2:21:18 | 3:19:28
17523| stampydmonkey | 03:56:xx | tbc | tbc | tbc | 3:53.29
14189| RolandDeschain | 03:54:xx | 57:07 | 1:59:33 | 2:49:03 | 3:56:12
xxx| Yevon | 04:09:59 |
14503| BrownEyes79 | 04:20:xx | 1:01:36 | 2:09:45 | 3:04:32 | 4:25:40
19822|statina| 04:55:59| 1:05:44 | 2:21:27 | 3:27:05 | 4:59:21
13758|ariana| 04:39:xx| 1:08:10 | 2:21:56 | 3:19:10 | 4:37:06
xxx|heebusjeebus| 04:20:00|
19946|henrietta| 04:35:00| 1:03:32 | 2:14:35 | 3:13:24 | 4:32:42
1073|Sheep1978| 03:29:59| 50:15 | 1:45:18 | 2:28:38 | 3:28:29
xxx|deisedude| 03:29:59|
4442|conti| 03:19:59| 46.04 | 1.34.49 | 2:15:16 | 3:16:20
xxx|drkpower| 03:40.00|
4801|Podgec10| 03:19:xx| 48:26 | 1:41:23 | 2:22:52 | 3:29:08
xxx|Battery Kinzie| 03:19:59|
xxx|dos29| 03:40:00|
13386|Omeceron| 04:29:59| 1:03:36 | 2:14:46 | 3:19:11 | 4:48:41
xxx|nedsgarden| 04:40:00|
xxx|Thunderdog| 03:49:59|
8263|choons| 03:29:59| 53:24 | 1:49.23 | 2:35:29 | 3:49:29
9026|Halloween Jack| 03:59:59| 56:41 | 1:58:51 | 2:47:48 | 3:54:39
21169|muddypaws| 05:59:59| 1:15:10 | 2:52:23 | 4:13:30 | 6:01:32
14014|ted1| 04:29:58| 1:02:16 | 2:10:59 | 3:11:37 | 4:44:42
4967|Amirani| 03:44:59| 54:27 | 1:54:06 | 2:42:22 | 3:52:02
xxx|excitementcity| 04:29:59|

Huzzah!

TillyDcm wrote: »

Hi all. I haven't posted in quite a while, but have been following all the advice and fantastic race reports. Well done everyone on the recent races and your training.
I ran the Ratoath half marathon last week, and got a PB of 2.09.xx. I felt fine throughout and came away from it believing that the full is definitely achievable. But now I need to decide on my plan for DCM. Is 4:40 too optimistic? Should I stick with the 4:50 pacers and see how things go? Any thoughts? Thanks.

Hi there - I'd be inclined towards the 4:50 pacers but how has your training gone to date? I don't think you're on Strava.

Mr. Guappa

Wombled wrote: »

To be honest I found the Lsr tough today, my pace was all over the pace. As 3 boyz said above, I am the same and nearly feel I have to bank the mile/ pace in early on. Any advise would be most welcome. I would love a sub 5 hour finish but the way I am feeling at the moment, 5.10 would be more realistic. Sorry but I am finding the whole thing a bit exhausting at the moment. It's great reading everyone post and thanks for the laugh bananaleaf, I can totally relate to your post earlier.

It's tricky to give any kind of informed answer on what an expected finishing time might look like for you. Based on your Frank Duffy time 5:10 definitely seems like the better option, but then that race was super difficult, so we should take that into account somewhat. You've also trained very well (although a touch too fast at times). You mentioned previously a 2:16 HM PB - when was that?

Sunday Runner wrote: »

2019 Race Results:
10 Mile 1:26:29
Half Marathon 1:58:03
10KM 52:37
5KM 24:10

Now that I see those times above, I'm really proud of how far I have come in a year! Dying to hear what we think an estimated finish time looks like for me.

In terms of race strategies, I am not sure how a consistent pace will work. I'm not good at pacing myself, so i'll definitely be running behind a pacer. I'm hearing alternative ideas of doing the first half fast(ish) and banking some time for the second half. I think that is very risky!

Something in the region of 4:20 seems like a decent goal for you. There might be scope for improvement on that based on the fact that your HM and 10 mile were tough races, but setting out with that target in mind seems like a decent strategy.

Hopefully your knee issue turns out to be minor. If it does, please do take the paces down a touch for the next month

You are right - running the first half too fast is inviting disaster. As always, these predictions are by no means an exact science - we are only making educated estimates based on the information available. No one knows how they are going to fare over the cloisng miles, but by starting conservatively you are giving yourself the best chance to run a successful marathon.

kemcloughlin

Anyone see this? https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2017/1024/914860-what-happens-to-your-body-when-you-run-a-marathon/

Mr. Guappa

Rojo wrote: »

From the posts over the last few pages, I've definitely been a bit over ambitious with my target time!!

Haha... just a bit maybe . But better to find that out now than somewhere around Milltown! Something like 4:20 is probably a more realistic target?

passinginterest wrote: »

Results this year;
5k - 21.58
5mi - 38.21
10k - 51.22 (a bit sick that day)
10mi - 1.26.07 (bad day)
Half - 1.49.02

DCM Target - sub 4

I was wavering big time after the disappointment of the 10k and 10mi races. But the half has restored some confidence. I was very controlled and comfortable and finished extremely strong. Ran a negative split of over 2 minutes. Plan will be very similar for DCM.

I’ve a slight advantage on some in that I’ve had one attempt at this before. Coming home in 4.00.48 off a half marathon time of 1.37.56 and a 3.50 target on the day (went through the half in 1.55.48). But the training couldn’t be any more different. That time around I never completed a run without walking over the 15 mile mark. This time I’m nowhere near as quick over the shorter stuff but I’ve finished strong on every long run and pulled the pace back on the shorter stuff. The last time training almost came to a standstill coming into October because I was totally wrecked. This time I’m in good shape and ready to put in the biggest weeks to date.

I know the 4hr target is still ambitious, but at the moment I’m up for the challenge. Will be aiming for 2hrs or just over at the half way point and see what’s left in the tank in the last 5 miles.

Finisherpix photos seem to be up now for anyone interested. Caught my demented sprint finish face nicely!

Nailed on for 4:00:48 :pac:

Seriously though if you don't get that sub 4 you'll be pretty close. I had my doubts before Saturday, as you did, but it's definitely achievable if the day goes your way - training has been very good too. Whatever the outcome you will run a better race than last time anyway - that plan looks like a solid one.

pd79

kemcloughlin wrote: »

Anyone see this? https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2017/1024/914860-what-happens-to-your-body-when-you-run-a-marathon/

Great article, love the video of first marathon, my dad was in there somewhere ! Feeling very tired this week. But on positive , I had appt in St James and got all clear, such a relief !

eabha19

pd79 wrote: »

Great article, love the video of first marathon, my dad was in there somewhere ! Feeling very tired this week. But on positive , I had appt in St James and got all clear, such a relief ![/QUOTE

Great news about the all clear. I'm also knackered. I'm reliably told these last two weeks before taper are the 'just do it' weeks where the novelty has worn off and you feel tired and a bit sick of trying to squeeze it in. But we've come this far so we'll trudge on that bit further.

ByrneDCMbrian

It's a good sign that a 1:51 HM felt comortable - and given that you didn't race it flat out (I think?) then it seems wiser to use your Bohermeen time as a guide. That Bohermeen time suggests that sub 4 is very doable, provided you keep things under control early on. I would reconsider the strategy of sticking rigidly to 9.09 until 20 miles - it would be far better to be at least a minute behind target through 7 miles. Also, bear in mind that you will end up running probably 26.5 miles on the day, so approx an average of 9 min/mile will be required for sub 4.[/QUOTE]

Yes mr guppa didn't race it flat out.so for first 7 mile pull the pace back to 9.20 a mile ?? Defo feel 9 min mile id be well able for as Bohermeen I ran 8 min miles for that. I suppose it's all about how you feel that day. But biggest think I'm getting from reading is don't go out to fast.

Wombled

Mr. Guappa wrote: »

Wombled wrote: »

To be honest I found the Lsr tough today, my pace was all over the pace. As 3 boyz said above, I am the same and nearly feel I have to bank the mile/ pace in early on. Any advise would be most welcome. I would love a sub 5 hour finish but the way I am feeling at the moment, 5.10 would be more realistic. Sorry but I am finding the whole thing a bit exhausting at the moment. It's great reading everyone post and thanks for the laugh bananaleaf, I can totally relate to your post earlier.

It's tricky to give any kind of informed answer on what an expected finishing time might look like for you. Based on your Frank Duffy time 5:10 definitely seems like the better option, but then that race was super difficult, so we should take that into account somewhat. You've also trained very well (although a touch too fast at times). You mentioned previously a 2:16 HM

That Hm was rock and roll 2 years ago
. My most recent were Bohermeen half March 2.19 and Dublin half 2018 2.19 . I have been consistent with the running and the plan but my cross training was basically very little. I also was hoping to have lost some weight but unfortunately nothing. I think 5.10 is what I am going to aim for. Thanks Mr Guappa,

passinginterest

Mr. Guappa wrote: »

Haha... just a bit maybe . But better to find that out now than somewhere around Milltown! Something like 4:20 is probably a more realistic target?




Nailed on for 4:00:48 :pac:

Seriously though if you don't get that sub 4 you'll be pretty close. I had my doubts before Saturday, as you did, but it's definitely achievable if the day goes your way - training has been very good too. Whatever the outcome you will run a better race than last time anyway - that plan looks like a solid one.

I’ve been tinkering with a pace plan, looking at a few calculators including the Garmin pacepro. I’m thinking something like this;
9.20, 9.20, 9.29, 9.20, 9.22, 9.20, 9.20, 9.01, 8.58, 9.05, 9.10, 9.06, 9.08 (Half 2.00.58) 9.12, 9.06, 9.01, 9.06, 8.57, 8.56, 8.56, 9.02, 9.05, 8.48, 8.51, 9.00, 9.01 (Finish 3.58.54)
Gives a bit of leeway if the pickup isn’t quiet there for the last 4 miles and the extra distance.

skyblue46

passinginterest wrote: »

I’ve been tinkering with a pace plan, looking at a few calculators including the Garmin pacepro. I’m thinking something like this;
9.20, 9.20, 9.29, 9.20, 9.22, 9.20, 9.20, 9.01, 8.58, 9.05, 9.10, 9.06, 9.08 (Half 2.00.58) 9.12, 9.06, 9.01, 9.06, 8.57, 8.56, 8.56, 9.02, 9.05, 8.48, 8.51, 9.00, 9.01 (Finish 3.58.54)
Gives a bit of leeway if the pickup isn’t quiet there for the last 4 miles and the extra distance.

That's not a bad looking plan. It seems to be very similar to the splits achieved by Lazare in the table I posted above. He was more than happy with his strategy afterwards and executed it to a tee.

Huzzah!

frash wrote: »

Up at 7 for the breakfast of champions (porridge & banana with a cuppa tea) and left the house by 8. Got parking handy enough.

Last year I did this race in 2:00:00 (still to get a sub 2) but I knew it was unlikely I'd get this time again between the predicted heat, the unexpected (by me anyway) wind and the tired legs. Nevertheless I was going to go for it.

1 9:04,0 Started off with the 2 hours pacers
2 9:03,7
3 9:12,9
4 9:11,6
5 9:22,3 Bit of a gap opening up between me & the 2 hour pacers here
6 9:20,3
7 9:32,3
8 9:32,2
9 9:05,9 Thought I could catch up with them here
10 9:54,4 Think I paid for the faster mile here and knew a sub 2 was gone now
11 9:43,9
12 10:22
13 11:10 This mile was a real struggle – I knew the time I wanted was gone. Had flashbacks to my 2015 marathon where my legs turned to lead at mile 20 – is it going to happen again this year?
14 1:20,6

Finished in 02:05:51
On the rule of thumb of twice that plus 20 mins I'd be around 4:32 for the marathon.
Tinman says 4:22.
McMillan says 4:24

I'd love to get 4:30 but have doubts about it being possible.

Last time out (2015) I went out with the 4:40 pacers so as to not start too fast with a view of catching up with the 4:30s in the 2nd half. Got to half way in 2:18 but then the wheels came off at mile 20 and I finished in 5:10.

This year I might place myself somewhere between the 4:30s & the 4:40s and hope to feck I can run the whole thing.

This week in the plan it's a 14m LSR but I'm still a bit ahead on the plan so might push that out to 18 miles as I think I'd benefit mentally from two substantially long runs (18 this week & 20 the week after).

Would you consider starting with the 4:40s again? I think that could be a good strategy.

frash

Huzzah! wrote: »

Would you consider starting with the 4:40s again? I think that could be a good strategy.

Yeah think I will & hope history doesn't repeat itself.

That niggle in my calf is getting worse so have booked in for a sports massage on Monday.

Have gotten 3 runs in this week regardless - 3, 7 & 4 (just now)
Hoping to do 18 on Saturday

Huzzah!

frash wrote: »

Yeah think I will & hope history doesn't repeat itself.

That niggle in my calf is getting worse so have booked in for a sports massage on Monday.

Have gotten 3 runs in this week regardless - 3, 7 & 4 (just now)
Hoping to do 18 on Saturday

I agree you're somewhere between 4:30 and 4:40, so hopefully the slower start will help. I understand after a blow up, following the same strategy can be daunting, though.

Mind the calf and, as you said, you're ahead of the plan, so there's no real need to do 18 if the calf is giving you bother.

Mr. Guappa

Lombardo123 wrote: »

Target time for DCM: 3:57.00.

FD 10 mile: 1.21.13
HM: 1.48.16

I would be happy with sub 4 any time, but feel my endurance over the last few weeks has increased a good but considering a change in diet/sleeping habits. I had more in the tank for HM also.

These times indicate that maybe sub 4 is on for me if I run a well thought out race.

I'm also comfortable with my fuelling and hydration so no changes needed in the coming weeks.

All that is giving me some confidence I can do it :cool:

Agreed - those times show you have the potential for a sub 4 marathon. You rightly mention endurance - that will be a key factor in determining if you make sub 4 or not. What wave are you in? If you're set on attempting sub 4 I'd aim for 3:59 with a conservative start.

jackc101 wrote: »

First off well done everyone on the Half, some great running & reading there and I'm trying to glean every snippet of lessons learnt.

Homework:
I'm addled at this point, I won't lie, on what to aim for.
My current training PMP is 6.15/Km which when worked out would be 4 hrs 25 ish
(That would be 10 minutes off my Cork time, not too shabby)
Extrapolating my Charleville half time (1:53:15) gives;
4 hrs 28 mins (runners world calculator) or
between 4 hrs 05 and 4 hrs 15 depending on whether you classify Charleville as standard or easy (slate calculator)
I'd (still) love 3 hrs 59 minutes and 59 seconds (don't kill me mentors! )
Crush away Sage words of wisdom welcome

You'll have to wait another year before having a proper crack at that sub 4 dream.

4:15, maybe a touch under, looks about right to me, which would be savage progress on Cork.

Mr. Guappa

ByrneDCMbrian wrote: »

Yes mr guppa didn't race it flat out.so for first 7 mile pull the pace back to 9.20 a mile ?? Defo feel 9 min mile id be well able for as Bohermeen I ran 8 min miles for that. I suppose it's all about how you feel that day. But biggest think I'm getting from reading is don't go out to fast.

Exactly. Yeah, something like passinginterest outlined earlier looks decent regarding pacing in the early going. No need to be back on 4:00 pace before Crumlin either - you've nearly 20 miles to reel back in the time.

Wombled wrote: »

That Hm was rock and roll 2 years ago
. My most recent were Bohermeen half March 2.19 and Dublin half 2018 2.19 . I have been consistent with the running and the plan but my cross training was basically very little. I also was hoping to have lost some weight but unfortunately nothing. I think 5.10 is what I am going to aim for. Thanks Mr Guappa,

Start with 5:10 as the goal, you have the potential to finish well inside that with a well run race.

Mr. Guappa

passinginterest wrote: »

I’ve been tinkering with a pace plan, looking at a few calculators including the Garmin pacepro. I’m thinking something like this;
9.20, 9.20, 9.29, 9.20, 9.22, 9.20, 9.20, 9.01, 8.58, 9.05, 9.10, 9.06, 9.08 (Half 2.00.58) 9.12, 9.06, 9.01, 9.06, 8.57, 8.56, 8.56, 9.02, 9.05, 8.48, 8.51, 9.00, 9.01 (Finish 3.58.54)
Gives a bit of leeway if the pickup isn’t quiet there for the last 4 miles and the extra distance.

How did you find the pace band for the Half? Seemed to work well for you anyway!