Peter Casey to contest the European elections

is_that_so

Danzy wrote: »

Casey got a good working class vote last time.

He'll still get a good bit of that but turn out won't be stellar and he has been low key.

7% and he should be delighted.

It is genuinely very hard to see who is going to give him FPVs. FG/SF and probably FF would be expected to pick up the seats. The question is how well will Ming hold his share. If he retains most of it Casey hasn't a hope, even at half it's a huge challenge.

KikiLaRue

Snow Garden wrote: »

Is this town Tuam or Balinasloe?

Yes

KikiLaRue

Looks like Ming is taking absolutely nothing for granted anyway. In the last week he's been canvassing in Sligo, Donegal, Longford, Roscommon, Mayo and more: https://www.facebook.com/Lukemingflanagan/

is_that_so

KikiLaRue wrote: »

Looks like Ming is taking absolutely nothing for granted anyway. In the last week he's been canvassing in Sligo, Donegal, Longford, Roscommon, Mayo and more: https://www.facebook.com/Lukemingflanagan/

As you would expect with an independent.

KikiLaRue

is_that_so wrote: »

As you would expect with an independent.

You'd think. Casey's approach seems to be more about working his contacts in the media for coverage.

I think people are more likely to vote for someone they met in person than someone they saw on TV. Casey's man of the people act doesn't wash.

Snow Garden

I think the result will be
1. McGuinness
2. Carthy
3. Casey
4. Ming

---

Smith
Walsh

Faugheen

Nobelium wrote: »

Or so he tells you to get a little bit of peace. I'd say it's more of a case he can't be bothered listening to your dictatorial intolerant PC shyte.

Shouting people down when they disagree with you. Thought that's what the lefty loony do gooders do in a debate.

Seems facts don't resonate very well with you.

is_that_so

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think the result will be
1. McGuinness
2. Carthy
3. Casey
4. Ming

---

Smith
Walsh

Maybe but FF are in better health these days and they have two sitting TDs to back each other up. More likely Ming v Casey if Casey gets enough votes.

Jackman25

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Satire considers itself a success when it provokes reactions like those folks. Well done.

I actually find WW is fairly even handed in the sacred cows it lampoons.

Acute boredom is the only reaction it provokes from me.

The article you linked might well have been one of your own posts, it was that bland.
Where are the articles on the other candidates (There may well be, I dont follow WW any more and I can't be bothered looking them up).
Any Healy-Raes running for them to brilliantly lampoon?

You said it best yourself - "Waterford Whispers are usually very good at tapping into what a lot of people are thinking" - basically slavishly following the social media zeitgeist. Not very edgy for a satirical site.

Geuze

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think the result will be
1. McGuinness
2. Carthy
3. Casey
4. Ming

---

Smith
Walsh

I can't see Casey getting elected, he hasn't made much impact so far?

Assuming FF don't make the same vote split mistake as before, you'd think there is an FF seat to be won.

FrancieBrady

Geuze wrote: »

I can't see Casey getting elected, he hasn't made much impact so far?

Assuming FF don't make the same vote split mistake as before, you'd think there is an FF seat to be won.

Definitely think there is a seat for FF, a lot of the 'hurt the government vote' will migrate to them.

is_that_so

They were very close to Harkin in 2014 and did win the highest proportion of FPVs nationally.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

eagle eye wrote: »

If you think somebody from a party which has shut down rural hospitals, made a major blunder with billions of our euro on the new children's hospital, left rural Ireland without broadband, wants everybody to stop cutting turf and has a gay party leader is going to top the poll in the northwest region you are deluded.
Sadly she might get a seat.

Do you honestly think that McGuinness has no chance of topping the poll? I mean, she might not but it’s hardly delusional to think that she has a good chance of doing so.

eagle eye

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote:

Do you honestly think that McGuinness has no chance of topping the poll? I mean, she might not but it’s hardly delusional to think that she has a good chance of doing so.

I think she will at best be fourth. There are lots of posters up for her running mate in Sligo, Donegal and Roscommon. I don't think I've seen a poster for McGuinness yet. They could do themselves out of getting even one seat.

Snow Garden

Geuze wrote: »

I can't see Casey getting elected, he hasn't made much impact so far?

Assuming FF don't make the same vote split mistake as before, you'd think there is an FF seat to be won.

Casey won more than 120,000 votes in the Midlands-North-West area during the presidential election.

is_that_so

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Do you honestly think that McGuinness has no chance of topping the poll? I mean, she might not but it’s hardly delusional to think that she has a good chance of doing so.

FG and FF , when they get their act together, are all about the vote management. It's quite rare to find big poll toppers from either, save in ego-driven TDs or constituencies with leaders. She's a very good performer in Europe, in a high profile job, and can relate to many of the issues especially in agriculture. I don't think she'll top the poll, that's for the Mings & Carthys of this world to compete for but she will get a seat without any doubt.

KerryGoat

I'm not sure he has as good a chance as people think, Ming has done alot of work on social media to keep people informed of whathe is doing ( what others aren't doing) and breaking down a lot of issues into easy to grasp info videos. That kind of work goes along way to engendering good will towards an incumbent.

is_that_so

Snow Garden wrote: »

Casey won more than 120,000 votes in the Midlands-North-West area during the presidential election.

In a contest where the winner was pre-ordained. Who's going to give him votes in an election where nearly 90% of the FPVs lie with other parties?

is_that_so

KerryGoat wrote: »

I'm not sure he has as good a chance as people think, Ming has done alot of work on social media to keep people informed of whathe is doing ( what others aren't doing) and breaking down a lot of issues into easy to grasp info videos. That kind of work goes along way to engendering good will towards an incumbent.

I think incumbency is a big thing in the Euros and worth votes on that alone. Additionally it's an MEP who has shown they won't embarrass us.

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

I think she will at best be fourth. There are lots of posters up for her running mate in Sligo, Donegal and Roscommon. I don't think I've seen a poster for McGuinness yet. They could do themselves out of getting even one seat.

It's called vote management. Lots up for her in Monaghan, Louth and Meath.

Snow Garden

is_that_so wrote: »

In a contest where the winner was pre-ordained. Who's going to give him votes in an election where nearly 90% of the FPVs lie with other parties?

I guess we shall see.

Mad_maxx

Casey won't get elected, he did the state some service by laying bare the absolute contempt which the Liberal media hold towards middle Ireland but he is incapable of moving any further, he hasn't the talent, simple as

Harkins vote won't go to casey either

is_that_so

Snow Garden wrote: »

I guess we shall see.

Numbers don't really lie here. Unlike the presidential pageant, this is a real election with real candidates from all the political parties. He needs something in the order of 15% FPVs to have a chance. I think he's someone you vote for first or not at all.

Snow Garden

is_that_so wrote: »

Numbers don't really lie here. Unlike the presidential pageant, this is a real election with real candidates from all the political parties. He needs something in the order of 15% FPVs to have a chance. I think he's someone you vote for first or not at all.

I guess we shall see.

I think he will certainly get elected. I will vote for Ming myself.

is_that_so

Snow Garden wrote: »

I guess we shall see.

I think he will certainly get elected. I will vote for Ming myself.

I don't think he will, on the grounds that he is an independent with no track record. Three seats are almost a given. Someone suggested 7% for him upthread. That would not be at all surprising.

KikiLaRue

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't think he will, on the grounds that he is an independent with no track record. Three seats are almost a given. Someone suggested 7% for him upthread. That would not be at all surprising.

Yup, many of the 120k who gave Casey a protest vote will be FF and FG voters. It’s easy enough scare up some votes when none of the parties that dominate the countryside are even running a candidate.

Aside from whether he will or will not win a seat, I don’t understand why he wants it. Up until the presidential election he had never shown an interest in public service, he doesn’t need the money...

DEFTLEFTHAND

Snow Garden wrote: »

Casey won more than 120,000 votes in the Midlands-North-West area during the presidential election.

These are the areas most affected by traveller activity.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

eagle eye wrote: »

I think she will at best be fourth. There are lots of posters up for her running mate in Sligo, Donegal and Roscommon. I don't think I've seen a poster for McGuinness yet. They could do themselves out of getting even one seat.

Alrighty. We shall see. She seems very well-regarded from what I can tell and she and Walsh will get a lot of 1,2s, I think. I can’t see her not getting a seat and I’d expect her to get one fairly comfortably.

is_that_so

KikiLaRue wrote: »

Yup, many of the 120k who gave Casey a protest vote will be FF and FG voters. It’s easy enough scare up some votes when none of the parties that dominate the countryside are even running a candidate.

Aside from whether he will or will not win a seat, I don’t understand why he wants it. Up until the presidential election he had never shown an interest in public service, he doesn’t need the money...

Bored, rich man seeks position as ...

robman60

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Definitely think there is a seat for FF, a lot of the 'hurt the government vote' will migrate to them.

Problem for FF may be that their best chance, Smyth, has a lot of territorial competition. Carthy is in the same constituency as him and SF is a better 'hurt the government' vote than FF, I think. Additionally, McGuinness isn't too far away either.

My feeling is that the border counties will be less inclined to go FF at present because if they feel they want an anti-Brexit voice speaking in Europe, McGuinness is the prominent voice, while nationalist concerns may point more towards Carthy.

Add to that the wildcard that is Casey, who if he is to appeal to any main party support, it is probably FF.

I could definitely see FF getting two candidates close, but none over the line for the second time in a row.