Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Re the fish, lifting EU quotas will help the fishing industry in the short term, but in the end will destroy the industry.

Fishing is an industry that needs heavy regulation and national governments particularly those who need votes from fishing areas aren't always the best to do it.

Which is exactly my point. Those that voted for Brexit are actually blaming the wrong people. Whilst they may well have perfectly reasonable and justifiable grounds for their grievances, they seem to be putting all the blame on the EU, whilst absolving the very people they voted to help them, ie MP's and MEPs, from any blame.

How anyone can see Farage as the solution, or even part of the solution, when he has achieved next to nothing in 23 years within the EU is beyond me. And Ann Widdecome? Really, she is the person to sort this mess out, the person who was actively involved?

Now we have the quite ludicrous position of Farage that they needed to Brexit because the EU was utterly undemocratic and wouldn't listen to anything the UK had to say, but now they need to vote for the Brexit party so that the UK can use its voice within the EU to effect change. A people are lapping it up!

gucci

Leroy42 wrote: »

TBF, British Steel has been in serious trouble for years. Brexit or No Brexit things were always going to be pretty rough in that sector.

So you can understand why they might have voted for Brexit, given that being in the EU hadn't saved them. Of course they missed the fact that the EU really had nothing to do with it, save for the UK government not being able to subsidise it due to EU rules. But the Thatcher government, and of course the current Tories are very much in the same thinking, would never dream of helping them so they were going to lose either way.

The timing of the British Steel story is perfect for a pre-election government act of support and therefore vote boost Or is it just a coincidence that them being in trouble for years has came to ahead 2 days before the elections?

Patser

gucci wrote: »

The timing of the British Steel story is perfect for a pre-election government act of support and therefore vote boost Or is it just a coincidence that them being in trouble for years has came to ahead 2 days before the elections?

Could be timing on British Steels part - hey you've 24 hours to bail us out, or big bad headline on eve of election. Chance to be hero or villain (and shag) precedent

reslfj

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Re the fish, lifting EU quotas will help the fishing industry in the short term, but in the end will destroy the industry.

Fishing is an industry that needs heavy regulation and national governments particularly those who need votes from fishing areas aren't always the best to do it.

UK fishing industry is heavily dependent upon the high-paying EU27 market.
The total quotas for each fish stock are regulated via an UN agreement (the total catch must be biological sustainable).

The UK will have to agree quotas with other EU and EEA countries for shared stocks.
The EU has already made it very clear, that EU27 market access (via FTA, CU, or SM/EEA) will require full reciprocal access to waters and EU27-UK agreed national quotas.

When it comes to trade talks, the EU is as tough as they come.

Lars

CelticRambler

IAmTheReign wrote: »

it's hard not to empathise with the people who feel they've been ignored throughout the whole Brexit process. I think this kind of behaviour is almost inevitable when the democratic process breaks down and the public are ignored. The Brexit vote won narrowly on the back of illegal funding and outright lies, calls for a second referendum ignored, a million people marching on London ignored, and a collapse in Tory support at local elections taken as a message to 'just get on with it', and all this while parliament sits on their collective hands and totally abdicate responsibility for governing.

But that's exactly the point: throwing a milkshake at Nigel Farage won't help, because he's not an MP! He wields no legislative power in the UK, he is as much an "ordinary citizen" as the guy who threw the milkshake. In other words, as Leroy42 said in another context, the latter is blaming the wrong person.

Regardless of what faults and/or crimes were committed by UKIP & all variations thereof, a whacking majority of British MPs in a sovereign Westminster voted to enact the supposed will of the people without any clear idea of what to do next. They are the culprits in this situation and expressing any kind of violence towards MEP candidates - regardless of how deluded or despicable are their views on anything - will not change the situation in Britain.

If these people feel aggrieved at being ignored, then they should be targeting their already-elected representatives, and those elements of the media that appear to have fallen asleep at the wheel.

jochenstacker

Still, I feel a certain grim satisfaction at Nigel Farage being hit by that milkshake. It wouldn't upset me if it happened to him several times a day.

reslfj

Leroy42 wrote: »

TBF, British Steel has been in serious trouble for years. Brexit or No Brexit things were always going to be pretty rough in that sector.

So you can understand why they might have voted for Brexit, given that being in the EU hadn't saved them....

"The UK is the ringleader in a blocking minority of member states that is preventing a European Commission proposal on the modernisation of Europe's trade defence instruments," said Eggert to the FT April 2016
https://www.businessinsider.com/report-eu-says-uk-government-blocked-china-anti-dumping-steel-tarriffs-2016-4?r=US&IR=T

Kind of difficult to blame the EU for something the UK is in the forefront of blocking.

The article goes on to write:
" Business Insider pointed out on Thursday the EU is actually also to blame for the demise of the sector."

But the linked article explains that the reason here primarily was the high pound and the low Euro at the time.
It was not blaming the EU as an institution, but pointing to the fact that the UK kept the pound high.

The eurozone had helped Ireland, Portugal, Spain and not least Greece and the Euro was low, while the UK did little to help keeping the pound relative expensive.

Lars

reslfj

jochenstacker wrote: »

It wouldn't upset me if it happened to him several times a day.

It should, as one milkshake - however large - keeps the media and public attention away from his dubious funding methods and other bad things he is participating in.

Lars

Remeber "When they go low, we go high"

Igotadose

The "ultra transparent" Brexit party has banned a news program from coverage, seems they were interested in Brexit party dodgy financing. When the reporter chased after Farage, Farage stonewalled him, then eventually responded (jokingly I suppose) that his party was financed by "Russians!"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-today-theresa-may-farage-party-eu-latest-updates-a8923026.html#post-1165905532

peddlelies

Not surprised to see the Brexit party doing so well, Farage is brilliant at what he does.

Leroy42

Will the rest of the media stand up for the media as a whole on this, as they have failed to do in the US?

This should be a red-line moment for both the media and the UK public. Banning complete media organisation for questions that even Farage accepts are based on correct facts is a very dangerous path to go down.

Kermit.de.frog

SNIP. Serious discussion only please.

Leroy42

peddlelies wrote: »

Not surprised to see the Brexit party doing so well, Farage is brilliant at what he does.

Is it really doing so well? It seems that it is roughly the same as the UKIP party in prior EU elections. Given that the will of the people was to leave, I would have thought a party extolling a leave would be walking this.

He has certainly done well in terms of getting media attention, and he is a very effective communicator, no doubt about that. But he is talking to an already convinced audience.

Of course if he really was a great as you seem to be suggesting, then he wouldn't have failed to get elected in any election that the people actually care about in the UK or indeed now be looking out banning media organisations because they ask him questions.

peddlelies

Leroy42 wrote: »

Of course if he really was a great as you seem to be suggesting, then he wouldn't have failed to get elected in any election that the people actually care about in the UK or indeed now be looking out banning media organisations because they ask him questions.

Are we ignoring the result of the Brexit referendum? That was almost single handedly down to Nigel Farage. Also afaik UKIP is still around so the Brexit party shifting that much support is impressive.



I don't agree with banning media outlets but I don't see many defending Fox when the DNC banned them from hosting a 2020 primary debate. Quite the contrary actually, CNN, MSNBC and the other corporate shills hammered them.

4068ac1elhodqr

peddlelies wrote: »

Not surprised to see the Brexit party doing so well, Farage is brilliant at what he does.

A bit of that, but also factor in high incompetence by the traditional parties.

I'll get 225%ROI from backing them in the EE market, if you were to walk into a bookies today (for most seats in the uk-ee), you'd be lucky to see 2% profit.

i.e. It's now a given they'll get most seats.

In terms of any looming GE, TBP opened at 100/1, now as low as low as 12/1. The only thing that may slow their progess is getting BoJo to take over from May.

Leroy42

peddlelies wrote: »

Are we ignoring the result of the Brexit referendum? That was almost single handedly down to Nigel Farage. Also afaik UKIP is still around so the Brexit party shifting that much support is impressive.



I don't agree with banning media outlets but I don't see many defending Fox when the DNC banned them from hosting a 2020 primary debate. Quite the contrary actually, CNN, MSNBC and the other corporate shills hammered them.

Nobody banned Fox, they simply didn't choose them. Hell of a difference. But you already know that I'm pretty certain.

Yes, getting the Brexit vote passed was indeed a major success, probably one of the biggest electoral successes ever. But now the reality of how that was achieved and the actual realities are becoming more apparent, at least to anyone willing to look at the facts, it needs to be viewed in a different light.

And whilst Farage was no doubt a leading player, it is pretty clear that the real deciding factor in the ref was Johnson siding with the Leave campaign. Had he gone for Remain then I think it would have lost.

UKIP is around in name only. UKIP was almost entirely focused around Farage. As with the BRexit Party, it really isn't a party in the traditional sense, it is a vehicle for a single agenda and personality driven. Hence why Farage had to unretire a few times and why Brexit Party has pretty much taken over all the previous UKIP support.

Akrasia

Igotadose wrote: »

The "ultra transparent" Brexit party has banned a news program from coverage, seems they were interested in Brexit party dodgy financing. When the reporter chased after Farage, Farage stonewalled him, then eventually responded (jokingly I suppose) that his party was financed by "Russians!"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-today-theresa-may-farage-party-eu-latest-updates-a8923026.html#post-1165905532

That's Channel 4 down, we just need the BBC, ITV, Sky News to pursue the same line of questioning towards Farage so that he has nowhere to hide anymore in the televised media.

The Rooster

peddlelies wrote: »

Not surprised to see the Brexit party doing so well, Farage is brilliant at what he does.

Absolutely and the format of the European elections suits him down to the ground.

He's running in the 10 seat South East constituency. It's run on a party list / closed list format. That means everyone just gets one vote. But if you vote Brexit Party/Farage with that vote, it automatically means you're 2nd/3rd etc preference (to compare it to the Irish system) is allocated to other members of the Brexit party and can't go outside the party. No matter what kind of meat-heads may or may not be next in line for the Brexit party, they get your 2nd/3rd preference etc so Farage's excess will automatically bring in a number of his party colleagues.

And given there's only a relatively small number of constituencies, he only needs one big name in each to bring in plenty of seats.

Whereas in the general election, it's many small constituencies and first past the post so the individual in every constituency is important.

Leroy42

TM is set to give a speech at 4pm where she will set out details of her New Deal.

What is the bets that it will be high on hopes and desires, proposals to review proposals, plenty of working hard and making the tough decisions, and ending with calling the House to do the right thing by the will of the people?

Even at the late stage, hell it is actually after the original closing time, she will do whatever she can to avoid having to actually take any actual position. I would have more admiration (any!) for her if she simply stood up and told the HoC the realities of what the UK is facing. Lay it out in stark terms. Enough of the nonsense. Deal, No Deal or Remain. Which do you want? But whichever you choose, be prepared to be remembered in history for making it. If you opt for No Deal, do so in the full knowledge of the gamble you are taking with peoples future. In the full knowledge that you will be directly responsible if the overwhelming majority, including the governments, predictions point to serious and long lasting economic hardship to many across the country.

BluePlanet

If those are the words she's using then it sounds like it's another attempt to re-open the withdrawal negotiations with EU 27.

trellheim

Sterling rate to .87 to Euro lowest since January.

Coveney warning we are at huge risk of no-deal


If May goes Paddy Power are offering 7/4 on BoJo being next PM all the way up to 500/1 Piers Morgan to be next PM

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

Sterling rate to .87 to Euro lowest since January.

Coveney warning we are at huge risk of no-deal


If May goes Paddy Power are offering 7/4 on BoJo being next PM all the way up to 500/1 Piers Morgan to be next PM

Odds on Britain leaving with no deal in 2019 are 7/2. Odds on Britain not leaving without no deal in 2019 (extension, revoke, agreement) are 5/1.

20silkcut

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is it really doing so well? It seems that it is roughly the same as the UKIP party in prior EU elections. Given that the will of the people was to leave, I would have thought a party extolling a leave would be walking this.

He has certainly done well in terms of getting media attention, and he is a very effective communicator, no doubt about that. But he is talking to an already convinced audience.

Of course if he really was a great as you seem to be suggesting, then he wouldn't have failed to get elected in any election that the people actually care about in the UK or indeed now be looking out banning media organisations because they ask him questions.

I’d be getting really concerned if they started rising near 50% or over.

The polls have indicated roughly 40% support for no deal over the last 2 years.
An Insane high support for such a ruinous outcome. That should be the ceiling of support for farage.

I assume that means 60% of the U.K. are somewhat sane and don’t want to crash out but are just diffuse among the other parties.

I still don’t see any mass protests in favour of a no deal Brexit either.
Certainly nothing like the remain gatherings. It’s incredible that no personality has emerged as a figurehead for remain.
All the charisma is on the brexit side.

Leroy42

According to Robert Peston, the FCA customs model, rejected already by the EU, is being raised again!

Peston claims that ex ambassador to the EU Ivan Rogers is not exactly impressed.

“I am v happy to be quoted as saying that I regard the resurrection, yet again, of an FCA proposal, which should never have been born, and has long since been rejected by the EU side, as the PM well knows, is the definition of insanity. And a declaration of the bankruptcy of this Government!”

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1130849934716985346?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1130849934716985346&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fmay%2F21%2Fbrexit-latest-news-developments-cabinet-to-discuss-latest-brexit-offer-to-mps-as-ministers-feud-in-public-over-no-deal-live-news

LeinsterDub

What's the FCA customs model?

Shelga

I wish Tory MPs would stop parroting the term ‘bad Tory Brexit’- it implies there is some amazing Labour Brexit just around the corner of the sunlit uplands- more unicorn nonsense. They need to be unequivocal and say Brexit in every form is bad for the UK.

briany

Didn't they already have a couple of amendments to the Brexit deal that included a 2nd referendum clause?

Akrasia

She was so close!

'The WA will inlude a requirement to vote for a 2nd referendum' in the HOC, but not for the public

It's such a sneaky way to pretend to care about the public.

funkey_monkey

May says she will put the government under a legal obligation to seek alternative arrangements to the backstop by December 2020.

May says she will also legislate to stop a future government splitting Northern Ireland off from Britain in regulatory terms.




Have we not been here before?

Leroy42

A legal obligation? And what if its impossible? What if the EU reject them?