Is it stupid to buy a petrol/diesel car in 2019?

beauf

Mike9832 wrote: »

How much?

Over 20k?

Are u mad?

Petrol one is 11k

Are VW?

Mike9832

beauf wrote: »

Are VW?

We all know they are

wcooba

Old diesel wrote: »

The point about the Porsche is that its introducing a new level of capability to EVs.

No it WON'T be a mainstream car but the capability eventually WILL be.

This goes back to my controversial comment that buying EV Kona or others alike now is throwing money down the drain. In the next 5 years EVs will evolve more then in the last 10 years. Cell prices are dropping at quite steady rate of 20% per year. Technology from premium cars will filter down rather quickly. Prices will have to go down to match current market segments etc.

Mike9832

wcooba wrote: »

This goes back to my controversial comment that buying EV Kona or others alike now is throwing money down the drain. In the next 5 years EVs will evolve more then in the last 10 years. Cell prices are dropping at quite steady rate of 20% per year. Technology from premium cars will filter down rather quickly. Prices will have to go down to match current market segments etc.

True

Buying a brand new ICE for 40k is also as stupid

Anyone buying a brand new Passat, Mondeo, Tiguan diesel or whatever for 40k will see crazy depreciation when electric is forced upon us

beauf

Mike9832 wrote: »

We all know they are

Lets hope its a bit cheaper than the eUp then...

Twenty Grand

Mike9832 wrote: »

True

Buying a brand new ICE for 40k is also as stupid

Anyone buying a brand new Passat, Mondeo, Tiguan diesel or whatever for 40k will see crazy depreciation when electric is forced upon us

I think we're in a calm before the storm of EV development. There's plenty of hype, but not a lot on offer from most manufacturers, especially at the lower sub 40k price point.

I'd agree that you'd be mad to buy a new car now, especially diesel, unless you really need it. Give it 5 years and there'll be plenty more EV on offer and I think the trend will lean heavily towards EVs.
That said, current EVs will probably depreciate like mad too, especially if new cars have improved range and features.

I wouldn't be surprised if the govt started raising tax for ICEs over the next few years either to give people a push and generate sales of new cars. I wonder how long the VRT exemption will last...

redcup342

wcooba wrote: »

I didn't see anything like that (yes I'm aware of the 130 "recommended speed"). On my drives through A2 or A9 (most recent one last month) I was going with the flow and definitely wasn't the fastest one.

I live here and the majority on the Autobahn don't horse it (particularly in the west anyways)

Only ones that tear the ass out of it are foreigners or people in Company lease cars.

wcooba wrote: »

This goes back to my controversial comment that buying EV Kona or others alike now is throwing money down the drain. In the next 5 years EVs will evolve more then in the last 10 years. Cell prices are dropping at quite steady rate of 20% per year. Technology from premium cars will filter down rather quickly. Prices will have to go down to match current market segments etc.

Could be the case but you also have to take into account that in 5 years free charging and government incentives may no longer be a thing.

twin_beacon

Mike9832 wrote: »

Buying a brand new ICE for 40k is also as stupid

Anyone buying a brand new Passat, Mondeo, Tiguan diesel or whatever for 40k will see crazy depreciation when electric is forced upon us

Buying a car that doesn't meet your needs is stupid.
By the time electric is forced upon is, a lot of the 191 cars (EV and ICE) will be close to end of life, and will have bottomed out depreciation wise.
Also by that time, will a 191 EV be more desirable than a 191 ICE? Who knows.

Eric Cartman

Mike9832 wrote: »

True

Buying a brand new ICE for 40k is also as stupid

Anyone buying a brand new Passat, Mondeo, Tiguan diesel or whatever for 40k will see crazy depreciation when electric is forced upon us

In the family saloon and crossover category id agree with you beyond 2020-2021 .

For luxury cars and high end propper 4x4s id imagine theyll hold out a few years longer if not become a status symbol in their own right when electric becomes the norm , ‘look at me, i can afford my v8 even with all the mental taxes’

Heres Johnny

Nothing like an ev discussion to divide the country!
My sum of experiences of electric is a 3 day loan of an i3 last summer and I loved it. Great craic of a car. Thought about buying a used one but didn't in the end. Just too small and I love my big German saloons.
Since then myself and the missus bought our first diesel cars, a 5 series and an a6, both 2014. Just bigger, more impressive cars than any EV out now. If either of these cars had electric capabilities of an i3 or even better a Kona or something I would have bought it without thinking. I would have one ICE and one EV in the house.

beauf

Eric Cartman wrote: »

In the family saloon and crossover category id agree with you beyond 2020-2021 .

For luxury cars and high end propper 4x4s id imagine theyll hold out a few years longer if not become a status symbol in their own right when electric becomes the norm , ‘look at me, i can afford my v8 even with all the mental taxes’

That didn't happen with the switch to diesel. Why would it happen switching to EV.

micks_address

Twenty Grand wrote: »

I think we're in a calm before the storm of EV development. There's plenty of hype, but not a lot on offer from most manufacturers, especially at the lower sub 40k price point.

I'd agree that you'd be mad to buy a new car now, especially diesel, unless you really need it. Give it 5 years and there'll be plenty more EV on offer and I think the trend will lean heavily towards EVs.
That said, current EVs will probably depreciate like mad too, especially if new cars have improved range and features.

I wouldn't be surprised if the govt started raising tax for ICEs over the next few years either to give people a push and generate sales of new cars. I wonder how long the VRT exemption will last...

5 years is a long time and a new car bought today wont be worth a whole pile by then anyway... so i don't think its as big a gamble as people think.. worst case scenario diesel fuel sky rockets which it wont as the haulage industry would freak out or the tax for diesels doubles or trebles... if anything the best approach might be buy now, and keep a good car till electric is more mature in 5/7 years..

uncle_sam_ie

micks_address wrote: »

5 years is a long time and a new car bought today wont be worth a whole pile by then anyway... so i don't think its as big a gamble as people think.. worst case scenario diesel fuel sky rockets which it wont as the haulage industry would freak out or the tax for diesels doubles or trebles... if anything the best approach might be buy now, and keep a good car till electric is more mature in 5/7 years..

Doesn't the haulage industry get tax rebates on diesel? I'm sure they still will. If the price or tax increases it will probably only effect the average Joe with a diesel passenger car.

micks_address

uncle_sam_ie wrote: »

Doesn't the haulage industry get tax rebates on diesel? I'm sure they still will. If the price or tax increases it will probably only effect the average Joe with a diesel passenger car.

not sure re rebates.. they could just increase the tax on cars which wouldnt affect the haulage industry.. i'm just strugling to see the point of any of the hybrid cars at the moment when their mpg is worse than a lot of diesel equivalents and petrols on their own like the honda 1.5 petrol in the civic/crv can do the same mpg as most hybrids.. perhaps the biggest difference in they produce less harmful emissions so i'd feel 'better' driving one?

Water John

I presume commercial vehicles can claim the VAT back, don't think there are any rebates.
Definitely with VW making a big jump, that will give the EVs mainstream impetus, moving from niche.

V8 Interceptor

Mike9832 wrote: »

I will buy an EV when prices come down, because i am poor

They are multiple times cheaper to run

If i was rich not a chance I would buy an EV

Porsche EV vs Porsche 911 Turbo S

Tough choice :pac:

You weren't the lucky winner in Naul today then?

Old diesel

micks_address wrote: »

not sure re rebates.. they could just increase the tax on cars which wouldnt affect the haulage industry.. i'm just strugling to see the point of any of the hybrid cars at the moment when their mpg is worse than a lot of diesel equivalents and petrols on their own like the honda 1.5 petrol in the civic/crv can do the same mpg as most hybrids.. perhaps the biggest difference in they produce less harmful emissions so i'd feel 'better' driving one?

The point of Hybrid

1) more suited to short journey work then diesel.

2) if you want some of the best long term reliability on the market then Toyota Hybrid has a good record vs most diesels and modern petrols.

3) many drivers get a very acceptable 50 plus mpg from what is a package with 22 years proven reliability.

4) hybrid battery pack HELPS reduce emissions.

That Honda 1.5 is giving issues in the states - oil contamination problems. Symptoms seem similar to the Mazda issues with DPFs.

The 1.5s are not warming up enough is the Honda spiel...

Meanwhile the 22 year proven experience Hybrid is over there in the corner ready to drive.

Obviously I have to factor in the possibility that any changes Toyota have made to Hybrid could introduce a problem area that wasn't there before.

But apart from EVs which dont suit all - I can't think of any other option that can be relied on for excellent reliability.

Every other option requires an expensive change as soon as warranty is up approach at a cost.

Is it better to do 150 to 200 k MILES in a super reliable Toyota Hybrid at 52 mpg.

Or shell out 6 k for a new engine and then sell in disgust at 100 k in a 60 mpg diesel.

zilog_jones

Old diesel wrote: »

Obviously I have to factor in the possibility that any changes Toyota have made to Hybrid could introduce a problem area that wasn't there before.

Most of the changes over the years are just reducing components (e.g. anything belt-driven) and improving efficiency at higher speeds.

Every other option requires an expensive change as soon as warranty is up approach at a cost.

And before anyone brings up the battery situation with hybrids - Toyota/Lexus will extend the traction battery warranty up to 10 years with an annual "health check".

Is it better to do 150 to 200 k MILES in a super reliable Toyota Hybrid at 52 mpg.

Or shell out 6 k for a new engine and then sell in disgust at 100 k in a 60 mpg diesel.

One correction: The current Prius would also do 60 MPG.

Old diesel

zilog_jones wrote: »

Most of the changes over the years are just reducing components (e.g. anything belt-driven) and improving efficiency at higher speeds.


And before anyone brings up the battery situation with hybrids - Toyota/Lexus will extend the traction battery warranty up to 10 years with an annual "health check".


One correction: The current Prius would also do 60 MPG.

I agree that Hybrid is solid technology and much better then diesel or modern petrols reliability wise. Its just I fequently get excited about a particular car or tech solution and then find there is an issue that propped up.

I can't see it happen with Toyota Hybrid as the set up is extremely mature. But I felt a desire to caveat.

Perhaps I was wrong to do so.

With the 52 mpg I had CHRs and the like in mind which is what most mainstream drivers are more likely to buy.

I understand the hybrid system warranty has silly low mileage limits like 100 k kms for the original factory warranty and 15 k kms.

For me it's not a deal breaker because the fear over Hybrid battery is over egged even if the worst happened and you had to pay yourself.

I mean on a diesel.....

DMF - 1 k,

4 injectors over 1 k,

Turbo - 1500 euros,

Change timing belt 500 euro for belt alone - the bill on the day will be over 800 as usually part of a service.

This is before we deal with all the other random issues modern diesels and petrols throw up.

BMW timing chains and EGR recalls.

Ford Ecoboost headgaskets

Mazda DPFs.

So yes the battery worry is overhyped

zilog_jones

Old diesel wrote: »

I understand the hybrid system warranty has silly low mileage limits like 100 k kms for the original factory warranty and 15 k kms.

The info about the Hybrid Health Check suggests each one will extend the warranty by either 1 year or 15k km, so maybe it means you may just have to do it more than once a year if you do beyond that mileage? The service interval is 16k km anyway, and I'd say that's all within typical mileage (I certainly don't do that much).

For me it's not a deal breaker because the fear over Hybrid battery is over egged even if the worst happened and you had to pay yourself.

I mean on a diesel.....

DMF - 1 k,

4 injectors over 1 k,

Turbo - 1500 euros,

Change timing belt 500 euro for belt alone - the bill on the day will be over 800 as usually part of a service.

This is before we deal with all the other random issues modern diesels and petrols throw up.

BMW timing chains and EGR recalls.

Ford Ecoboost headgaskets

Mazda DPFs.

So yes the battery worry is overhyped

That too. The Toyota traction batteries are typically lasting at least 12 years in this kind of climate. And that could cost about €2k or so to replace (OEM), but other expensive failures are rare, and there are cheaper options.

V8 Interceptor

How about one of these?

Cilar

See - it's starting "Electric car sales surge by 542% while traditional market stalls" https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/electric-car-sales-surge-by-542-while-traditional-market-stalls-1.3811006 . Give it a few years, and no one will want second hand diesel/petrol.

bazz26

Sheep will always need a shepherd...

Silent Running

Cilar wrote: »

See - it's starting "Electric car sales surge by 542% while traditional market stalls" https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/electric-car-sales-surge-by-542-while-traditional-market-stalls-1.3811006 . Give it a few years, and no one will want second hand diesel/petrol.

And chargepoint numbers increased by... oh wait... no.

Idbatterim

Silent Running wrote: »

And chargepoint numbers increased by... oh wait... no.

With technology improving at the current rate, even now with some of the bigger batteries. Not everyone needs public charging!

Silent Running

Idbatterim wrote: »

With technology improving at the current rate, even now with some of the bigger batteries. Not everyone needs public charging!

True, but I do really long drives with my little battery (28kWh) so public charging is necessary for me. There aren't that many bigger batteries available yet. The Leaf 40kWh isn't for me as the range would be the same as my current Ioniq, and the Kona 64kWh sold here is a crappy spec compared to the UK.

When a proper 64kWh or higher comes along I'll be all over it. My hopes lie with Kia's Niro or the VW Neo. Both possibly available at the start of next year.

SBPhoto

Cilar wrote: »

See - it's starting "Electric car sales surge by 542% while traditional market stalls" https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/electric-car-sales-surge-by-542-while-traditional-market-stalls-1.3811006 . Give it a few years, and no one will want second hand diesel/petrol.

Its easy to go up 542% from a nearly zero base

Water John

It's at 2.5% or 1 in 40 of new sales. Would need to be at 10% to be truly mainstream IMO.

ShadowHearth

SBPhoto wrote: »

Its easy to go up 542% from a nearly zero base

That's what I wanted to say too. It's clickbait title. 542% increase sounds massive, but it will sound big on any small number.

It's like if I sold 1 lobster dish at work yesterday, but today I sold 5, because it's Saturday night. 500%! Growth!!! Delete the rest of the menu and we sell only lobsters from now on!!!

trabpc

In relation to secondhand values does it really matter what it's worth, as after 10 years any car is pretty much worthless or certainly around 10% of it's original value at that stage whether it's Petrol Diesel or Battery.

Although I'd chance a 10 yr old Petrol or Diesel over a battery car as I doubt batteries at 10 yr old will be going very far. I see a battery car as having probably less value at that age.