Is it stupid to buy a petrol/diesel car in 2019?

samih

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

Supposedly half a million miles worth of charge cycles.

Now I'm not sure, but that could be the same battery that BMW cover for 8 years or 100,000km, in terms of warranty but my "informed" self is certainly open to correction!

The i3 actually has possibly the best performing battery packs in the market due to advance heating and cooling system they chose to use when designing it. And they were really conservative with the warranty back in the day.

When the packs get bigger the reduced number charging cycling makes some of the big battery cars like Tesla Model S possibly a million mile cars without a battery pack replacement. And they incidentally don't actually have any mileage restriction on their 8 year drivetrain warranty.

Silent Running

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

Supposedly half a million miles worth of charge cycles.

Now I'm not sure, but that could be the same battery that BMW cover for 8 years or 100,000km, in terms of warranty but my "informed" self is certainly open to correction!

Yup, circa 843,000 kms. This is expected to be the distance where the battery would reach 80% capacity. While that would still be a usable battery for most, it wouldn't be perfect. The value of the battery would still be considerable though, as already pointed out, because of the second life as static storage. Think PV system storage.

How many engines reach 843,000 kms with no maintenance? Or, more telling, how many engines would you need to replace to get to that mileage, and what would their value be when removed from the car?

Regarding the guarantee, how many miles does the petrol or diesel engine get?

AlanG

Rdwrer wrote: »

You do realise that all petrol and diesel sales are to be banned in this country from 2030?

Is that is passed legislation. If not then its as reliable as most politicians promises. I'm pretty sure the Tesla X is the only fully electric car approved for towing right now, that won't change massively in 10 years. There are strong arguments for EV but the 2030 target is not one of them.

mikeecho

samih wrote: »

It's still not clear to me why the LPG didn't become a more popular choice of fuel here about 20 years ago. That time most of the cars were petrol and it's relatively easy to convert them.

Most likely that ship has now sailed too. The power efficiency of BEVs is so much better than any convetional engine. You get many more miles per gallon running a combined heat and electricity plant and a charge a battery EV using it compared to driving on gas directly.

LPG was taxed to fcuk, that's why it didn't work.

CNG is being rolled out by Bord Gas, and Circle K will be installing CNG pumps during late 2019 and into 202+

The fuel companies Shell , BP, Exxon etc have a vested interest in CNG.

So.. while EV will be the end game, Gas will be the intermediate.

Sabre Man

AlanG wrote: »

Is that is passed legislation. If not then its as reliable as most politicians promises. I'm pretty sure the Tesla X is the only fully electric car approved for towing right now, that won't change massively in 10 years. There are strong arguments for EV but the 2030 target is not one of them.

Jaguar I-PACE, Audi e-tron and Mercedes EQC can also tow.

redcup342

mikeecho wrote: »

LPG was taxed to fcuk, that's why it didn't work.

CNG is being rolled out by Bord Gas, and Circle K will be installing CNG pumps during late 2019 and into 202+

The fuel companies Shell , BP, Exxon etc have a vested interest in CNG.

So.. while EV will be the end game, Gas will be the intermediate.

CNG has been around for years here in Germany, tons of Taxis using it, in Holland as well (although in NL LPG is more popular) . Too expensive to go building out new stations all being scaled back now.

The CNG cars have less of a range, you have to plan more as the usage pattern is the same a Petrol/Diesel with less stations and the cars are pretty much the cost of a Diesel plus a few thousand euros.

slave1

redcup342 wrote: »

Say you do have to replace the battery, and in the Gen One Leaf is able to easily reach 200000 Kilometers, there's people driving with 240000 km on the original battery (and even then you can still use it

Mate of mine has a 2104 Leaf24 from new, uses it pretty much exclusively as his commute car on crappy back roads, charges at work for free, lost his first bar at XMas and car passed 200,000 last month.
Apart from tyres and servicing he hasn’t put another cent in it, even original discs/pads.
Work out those savings!

mikeecho

redcup342 wrote: »

CNG has been around for years here in Germany, tons of Taxis using it, in Holland as well (although in NL LPG is more popular) . Too expensive to go building out new stations all being scaled back now.

The CNG cars have less of a range, you have to plan more as the usage pattern is the same a Petrol/Diesel with less stations and the cars are pretty much the cost of a Diesel plus a few thousand euros.

I was recently at the Audi Ingolstadt factory and saw their eTron line, along with their gTron line.

Lots of car manufacturers are producing CNG cars.
We just need the infrastructure in this country, which will be rolled out in the next 18 to 36 months, with CircleK taking a lead roll.

Once the CNG pumps are in place..




If you build it they will come.

Water John

Somebody should tell VW that they have got it wrong in going electric across the the whole stable of makes.

donkey balls

Someone mentioned using Hydrogen as fuel, A bus company in Aberdeen trailed it out a while back never followed up on how they got on with it the only by product of Hydrogen is water.
The thing is it cost a fortune to manufacture with production facilities of the gas in Ireland &UK counting to a few plants. As someone else mentioned earlier when the govt brought in cheaper motor tax for new diesel cars I was still paying crazy money on tax for a 1.8 petrol.
Then due to the cars age (Even though it was NCT and serviced every year) I found it hard to get insurance so ended up selling it on and buying a diesel, Now I'm told that diesel is bad and electric is the way to go even though the car uses adblue which has been in use on trucks and buses for over 10 years.

swarlb

redcup342 wrote: »

Say you do have to replace the battery, and in the Gen One Leaf is able to easily reach 200000 Kilometers, there's people driving with 240000 km on the original battery (and even then you can still use it)

Say a Diesel with a tank of fuel gets you around 1000km so we'll 65 euros for tank.

That's around 13000 euros worth of Diesel, that wouldn't have cost you a penny in the Leaf.

Now add in the Extra servicing costs.

Even if you did have to replace the battery, how much would your Diesel car with 200000 kilometers on it be worth ?

Add up the deprecation and the theoretical 13000 euros of Fuel costs + whatever you would have spent on oil.

And that ^^ Is almost 10 year old tech.

I don't get it why people are so aggressively against Electric, costs wise these days the numbers add up, back some years ago when I looked into it, it was not feasible as the cars didn't fit my commute.

My worst costs on the car were:
Depreciation, Fuel and Servicing (and Motor Tax - Although Motor Tax is much higher in NL than IE)

Depreciation, Fuel and Servicing all goes down with an electric car by a huge amount.

They are afraid of electric because of ignorance, and roll out the same argument each time... "but what if I need to drive from Cork to Donegal, I'll have to 'plan ahead'.. Fact is, daily journeys are probably on average about 100/120 km and even at that I doubt that drivers fill their tanks to the brim every day.
Electric may not be the answer in the short or long term, like Brexit, no one knows.
But the fact is they are here, and offer an alternative. Like most things they will hopefully get more affordable over time, both new and used.
Remember a Late Late Show program from the 80's, when Gay Byrne had the founder of Ballygowan on, and scoffed at the idea that people would 'go into a shop and BUY a bottle of water. Or even further back when the Ford Motor Co were looking for a loan, and the Bank advised them that 'horses were here to stay, and the motor car is a fad'
He was right of course, and the horse industry generates billions each year, but the motor car was certainly not a fad.
The electric car is simply a progression of the Model T, nothing less.

meeeeh

While I agree the electric car is most likely where the development will go, plucking an example from history doesn't really say anything. There were more inventions for which people were told they will not work and they didn't work. And many for which people were told they will work and also didn't work. All those things are only confirmed with the hindsight and we forget all the stuff that didn't succeed.

wassie

donkey balls wrote: »

...As someone else mentioned earlier when the govt brought in cheaper motor tax for new diesel cars I was still paying crazy money on tax for a 1.8 petrol.

IMHO Govt Policy is the single biggest factor that influences the mix of car sales in the market over the long term.

When the Govt in 2008 changed the VRT and motor tax system based on engine capacity to the current one based on CO2 emissions, the move from 30pc market share for diesel to 70pc by 2009 proves that purchasing choice can be changed simply by altering motor tax.

There is a clear sentiment shift by consumers in the car sales market, in part due to Govt incentives to switch to hybrid & electric vehicles. But this is really just tinkering around the edges at the moment, given the volume hybrids/EVs make up in the market at the moment.

The financial disincentive to shift away from pure petrol/diesel is not significant for the masses at this point in time. Until we see a 'big stick' approach such as that in 2008, I don't believe we are going to see significant change in the mix of car sales in the short term.

But as we all know, it is coming...its just a question of when.

twin_beacon

Rdwrer wrote: »

You do realise that all petrol and diesel sales are to be banned in this country from 2030? That's only 11 years away. Electric vechicles will be the market leader long before that, because as the title of this thread suggests, people will be extremely reluctant to buy a petrol or diesel as it will have very little resale value.

Thats the plan........ but theses dates are not set in stone, and this one will slide by a good few years imo. The big unanswered question for the government is where are they going to get the missing tax revenue from when we stop buying petrol and diesel? Until that's answered, and a new tax generation system is in place, the government of the day will not be implementing the ban.



125,557 new cars were registered in Ireland last year, almost 1% (0.98) were EV, in 2017 it was roughly 0.5%. The figures are small, but its almost a 100% increase in EV sales. If this trend continues, it will apply pressure for the government to find an answer to the where it will source the lost revenue when ICE cars are no more, either that, or the tax breaks for EVs will be eased. Either way, I would be shocked if that date of 2030 is met, as we have a habit if kicking the can down the road, and leaving future governments to clean up the mess.

wassie

A number of states in the US looking at the scenario of a user pays system or vehicle miles travelled tax (VMT) tax ultimately replacing fuels taxes. More info here on Wikipedia.

At the end of the day the Govt will find a way to make us pay - that I guarantee!

creedp

twin_beacon wrote: »

Thats the plan........ but theses dates are not set in stone, and this one will slide by a good few years imo. The big unanswered question for the government is where are they going to get the missing tax revenue from when we stop buying petrol and diesel? Until that's answered, and a new tax generation system is in place, the government of the day will not be implementing the ban.



125,557 new cars were registered in Ireland last year, almost 1% (0.98) were EV, in 2017 it was roughly 0.5%. The figures are small, but its almost a 100% increase in EV sales. If this trend continues, it will apply pressure for the government to find an answer to the where it will source the lost revenue when ICE cars are no more, either that, or the tax breaks for EVs will be eased. Either way, I would be shocked if that date of 2030 is met, as we have a habit if kicking the can down the road, and leaving future governments to clean up the mess.

Will the Govt go ahead and ban ICE cars even if there is no alternative available? I'm sure the car manufacturers will develop strategic plans to massively increase the supply of EV's to ensure our Govt can meet its 'back of a packet of fags' objectives.

samih

Norway, Holland, Sweden etc. have already set dates for banning sales of non-zero emissions vehicles on earlier dates than Ireland. And even before that London will effective ban the non-Euro 6 diesels this year. The car makers will have to up their game or otherwise lose any sales in the countries that ban the current sales. Ireland would want not to be the last market in Europe moving to for example ban diesel sales because otherwise we are in danger to become the dumping ground for the retromobiles.

In Norway last October 60 pc of car sales were plugin and 45 pc battery only (so 3 quarters of plugins were battery only). And that was archieved with current limited types of EV cars available. Norway would otherwise already be close to 100 percent. The manufactures actually already allocate large numbers of European electrics there to keep their market share and this is what currently makes is harder for us to actually buy one without waiting for months/years. Norwegians love to tow trailers and currently the only model on sale in volume is the Model X.

By 2030 (or even by 2023 as a matter of fact) we will have much more EV models to choose from than today and prices willl have reached parity without any subsidies. I reckon that by 2030 it will be game over for ICE regardless of what the government decides.

swarlb

What are all the people hoarding cars till they hit the magical '30 years old for cheap tax' do ?

rn

It won't be our market that dictates when ICE goes away, it'll be our larger European neighbours that'll really dictate when it goes away.

If we were serious about 2030, we'd want to be significantly ratcheting up tax on petrol and diesel, as well as the cars themselves.

We might want to consider the environmental impact of creating brand new machines over keeping perfectly good, but uneconomic to repair, older cars that are scrapped before their real end of life date.

Old diesel

It's already possible technology wise to have on street charging so bascally in the future ANY place you can legally park a car is a potential charge point.

Charging capability continues to evolve - 800 volt batterys coming from the likes of Porsche allows 350 kw charging. The chargers for 350 kw charging are coming on stream.

It's less then TEN years ago since electric cars started to become truly viable with the 1st Gen Leaf - and then Tesla came along.

Impossible to predict where EV technology both the cars and charging technology goes over the next 10 years.

I take the view that if a 350 kw charger can charge 200 km range in 8 mins in real world as claimed - then a lot of the practical concerns re charging disappear.

You just arrive at the charger and fill up almost as you do with diesel today.

Change will be driven by the need to lower emissions etc

twin_beacon

rn wrote: »

If we were serious about 2030, we'd want to be significantly ratcheting up tax on petrol and diesel, as well as the cars themselves.

I agree, the only way people change their daily habits is when it hits their pockets. However, the last time an irish government tried to get people the change their daily habits, was when they charged people for water, to conserve it, and we all know how that ended! I don't think politicians are serious about the 2030 date. if its a choice of hitting that date or risking reelection, we all know which option will be chosen.

swarlb

Generally speaking, the only dates politicians are interested in, is the date they can collect their pension, and the date of the next election.

Brego888

If petrol and diesel cars are to be banned in 2030, what about hybrids?

joebloggs32

Brego888 wrote: »

If petrol and diesel cars are to be banned in 2030, what about hybrids?

It's only the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to be banned in 2030. They will still be selling fuel at filling stations for many years after.

wassie

Majority of manufacturers by then probably won’t be selling pure diesel/petrol cars anyhow. We are already seen several manufacturers going that way in response to policy shifts over on the continent.

rn

If new ICE cars are banned without corresponding hikes in fuel tax, the depreciation of old cars will surely be lessened for a few years. People will need ICE cars until electric can be as versatile in all uses and ranges.

Old diesel

rn wrote: »

If new ICE cars are banned without corresponding hikes in fuel tax, the depreciation of old cars will surely be lessened for a few years. People will need ICE cars until electric can be as versatile in all uses and ranges.

When 350 kw charging and 800 volt batteries* become common place then the versatile all use and every range issue becomes pretty much sorted.

A 450 mile journey with just 1 10 minute stop to charge will become very doable.

Even as we speak the Tesla superchargers can hit 100 kw plus charging speed. The zero to 40/50 percent speed of the Model 3 looks very promising on superchargers - the speed tapers off as you get to higher percentages.

Model 3 peaks at 115 kw according to reports

Higher voltage batterys could help this in future.

The London taxi - the new model - also points us in the direction of a reasonable interim solution - you get 70 miles EV only range - but the small Volvo petrol engine can kick in to act as a generator.

That idea could work - BMW did similar with the i3 Rex but with WLTP BMW ended i3 Rex which is a little frustrating

*expect the 800 volt battery tech from Porsche to hit the rest of the VAG group and then expect rest of market to catch up.

Skatedude

Old diesel wrote: »

When 350 kw charging and 800 volt batteries* become common place then the versatile all use and every range issue becomes pretty much sorted.

A 450 mile journey with just 1 10 minute stop to charge will become very doable.

Even as we speak the Tesla superchargers can hit 100 kw plus charging speed. The zero to 40/50 percent speed of the Model 3 looks very promising on superchargers - the speed tapers off as you get to higher percentages.

Model 3 peaks at 115 kw according to reports

Higher voltage batterys could help this in future.

The London taxi - the new model - also points us in the direction of a reasonable interim solution - you get 70 miles EV only range - but the small Volvo petrol engine can kick in to act as a generator.

That idea could work - BMW did similar with the i3 Rex but with WLTP BMW ended i3 Rex which is a little frustrating

*expect the 800 volt battery tech from Porsche to hit the rest of the VAG group and then expect rest of market to catch up.

Sounds great, but still need to charge them and most cars in my area use on street parking. I think batteries will improve long before the Irish government can add on street charging for even a fraction of the parking spots. My mom parks 3 streets away from her house as that's the only parking permit she could get after years of trying. extension lead doesn't reach that far.

older i get better i was

Propaganda by manufacturers is laughable, to hear a "housewife" on the radio add say how great she feels helping the environment while driving kids to school is enough to make me throw up!

As things stand our grid can barely supply enough electricity to keep the country going so any substantial increase in demand is currently probably not a runner, electric car not a chance for me, despite the propaganda..

OldMrBrennan83

Electric wouldn't suit me at all personally. The vast majority of journeys would be ok in a decent range one but you're stuck then if you want to do something longer or just want the option to go further. Petrol for the foreseeable.