Is it stupid to buy a petrol/diesel car in 2019?

Sabre Man

Petrol and diesel cars are great. The joy of filling your car with a smelly liquid that pollutes our towns and cities and causes cancer.

How could anyone want instant torque or the ability to preheat of precool your car instead?

Renegade Mechanic

Sabre Man wrote: »

Petrol and diesel cars are great. The joy of filling your car with a smelly liquid that pollutes our towns and cities and causes cancer.

How could anyone want instant torque or the ability to preheat of precool your car instead?

Yeah, how could anyone not want to spend 7 grand on a battery after a few years when it's range goes down, and down, and down... Lol..
Fair mad if by the time you needed one, your car was actually worth less than the battery it needed. Good luck trading or selling that!

I've said it before I'll say it again. As a replacement of the ICE the EV is dead in the water until they replace lithium with something that isn't literally too rare to actually replace the ICE. Because it is. Hell of an investment tho in the mean time, that and copper..

There'll be better batteries along, ones that will degrade at a rate slower than the car they're bolted to, and lithium's ecology-destroying manufacturing will fall by the wayside.
They will earn some more customers.
Me, personally, the only way forward involves the ICE mated to a generator instead of a gearbox.
Those will be the vehicles that forge ahead.

jimgoose

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

...Me, personally, the only way forward involves the ICE mated to a generator instead of a gearbox.
Those will be the vehicles that forge ahead.

CIE 181-Class, bah. You wouldn't bate it with rod-iron.

Skatedude

redcup342 wrote: »

They'll never mimic the fueling of petrol/diesel cars since there is no need to as the infrastructure already exists to fuel it at your home.

Why would you drive to a place to hang around and fuel your car when you can plug it in like your phone and go to bed.

Because so very many people have to use on street parking, electric cars can never replace fuel based cars because of that.

Renegade Mechanic

jimgoose wrote: »

CIE 181-Class, bah. You wouldn't bate it with rod-iron.

That's the one! Now shave 50 tonnes off it, stick a wee 2cyl diesel/genny into it, get ready to mass produce a car that does 250+mpg aaaand lose half your value in an emissions scandal

samih

About the Lithium and Cobolt: The difference between the known reserves and the actual available deposits are two different numbers. With the current consumption the *known* reserves of Li are good for approx. 140 years. Bit like the known oil reserves from 1982 onwards:

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?product=oil&graph=reserves

Currenlty we have over twice as many oil reserves as back in '82 even when using the stuff more and more each year. And no, we didn't run out by 1990 as was predicted back in 70's. The same will happen with Li and Co. And if those metals are really in a risk of running, it will be possible to design batteries using different metals. Ni was the previous Li and Pb before that but the technology has moved on. And anyway if Li turns out to be the best possible ingredient for batteries, the mining companies will go out and find more. At the moment there is no need to as there are great reserves available.

Sabre Man

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

Yeah, how could anyone not want to spend 7 grand on a battery after a few years when it's range goes down, and down, and down... Lol..
Fair mad if by the time you needed one, your car was actually worth less than the battery it needed. Good luck trading or selling that! /QUOTE]

This is basically a non-issue.

And engines never need to be replaced or serviced?

samih

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

Yeah, how could anyone not want to spend 7 grand on a battery after a few years when it's range goes down, and down, and down... Lol..
Fair mad if by the time you needed one, your car was actually worth less than the battery it needed. Good luck trading or selling that!

The current generation of cars have battery warranty of 8 years to protect against degradation. You'll get a new battery under warranty if there are issues but unlike the mark 1 Nissan LEAF you won't most likely have to.

At the end of life when the battery capacity has reached about 70 percent from new your old battery will still be suitable for static energy storage and will therefore have a residual value of 1000-2000 Euro, so you will actually be better off scrapping an end of life EV than a normal car which is worth maybe 50-100.

Pussyhands

redcup342 wrote: »

I have a mate started doing a 250 km round trip daily in his Kona, car has a 400 km range.

Fills in 45 minutes at a 100kw Charger, but he rarely uses a rapid charger anyway, only use case would be going from Amsterdam to Berlin or something, drive for 3 1/2 hours, stop plug in and go for a bite to eat then come back and carry on.

I've seen this type of comment often with EV owners. "oh just go for a coffee while the car charges"

Your car is deciding when to have a break, not you.

samih

Pussyhands wrote: »

I've seen this type of comment often with EV owners. "oh just go for a coffee while the car charges"

Your car is deciding when to have a break, not you.

My car normally charges when I'm asleep so the EV actually wins here. Why would you want to spend 100 yoyo's and the time and inconvenience for driving to a filling station when you could just connect your charging lead when returning home. On top of that you also waste time standing there holding the pump hose for minutes at the time instead of less than a ten seconds it takes to plug in.

:-)

samih

Humour:

Tesla driver goes to test a petrol car/

meeeeh

I don't think charging at home part is the problem for anyone who has space.

meeeeh

samih wrote: »

Humour:

Tesla driver goes to test a petrol car/

In other words: smug wanker who can afford high performance car is amused by what plebs buy.

Renegade Mechanic

Sabre Man wrote: »

This is basically a non-issue.

And engines never need to be replaced or serviced?

Serviced, yes, like an EV, without the oil and filter.
Replaced? Hardly ever
At the end of the day, it is 100% guaranteed you'll have to replace the battery - and it may cost more than the car is worth.
There is no guarantee whatsoever that you'll have to replace the engine.

samih wrote: »

The current generation of cars have battery warranty of 8 years to protect against degradation. You'll get a new battery under warranty if there are issues but unlike the mark 1 Nissan LEAF you won't most likely have to.

At the end of life when the battery capacity has reached about 70 percent from new your old battery will still be suitable for static energy storage and will therefore have a residual value of 1000-2000 Euro, so you will actually be better off scrapping an end of life EV than a normal car which is worth maybe 50-100.

If a battery had 70% of its capacity after 8 years it would command at least close to 70% of it's initial value - say 5k. Not 1 or 2....

samih

meeeeh wrote: »

In other words: smug wanker who can afford high performance car is amused by what plebs buy.

Us plebs and still make a difference too. If you're planning to buy a new car in 2019 please make sure you make an informative choice.

Back in 2015 I changed from a 250 EUR car to a brand new LEAF and when I traded that in last year after 71k the LEAF had depreciated by the exact price difference between bying petrol for the old car and night time electricity for the LEAF. As the service costs, tax and insurance were cheaper for the LEAF I got actually to drive a brand new car essentially for free for 2.5 years.

Pussyhands

meeeeh wrote: »

In other words: smug wanker who can afford high performance car is amused by what plebs buy.

Teslas are ugly. You have to press a button to electrically open the glovebox.

Rubberchikken

if money was no object id buy the electric. love the idea of it.
but as money isnt too plentiful id buy a good second hand petrol.

Skatedude

samih wrote: »

My car normally charges when I'm asleep so the EV actually wins here. Why would you want to spend 100 yoyo's and the time and inconvenience for driving to a filling station when you could just connect your charging lead when returning home. On top of that you also waste time standing there holding the pump hose for minutes at the time instead of less than a ten seconds it takes to plug in.

:-)

Lucky you, again, what about the huge part of the population who don't have driveways?

samih

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

Sf a battery had 70% of its capacity after 8 years it would command at least close to 70% of it's initial value - say 5k. Not 1 or 2....

What I meant that even at the scrappage stage the degraded battery is still worth lots more money than most of the scrappage vehicles. How long it will take to reach that 70 percent is not clear but if it happens within first 8 years (and 160-200k) it won't be your problem. And as the car makers are here to make money they won't give you a 8 year warranty for the battery if they expect it do to die within 5 years for example.

As the electric cars are extreme simple mechanically and most are capable for really high miles I can see third party upgrades starting to happen soon. For example for the first gen LEAF you can already get the battery refurbed to 90 percent or better for about GBP 1500 in UK by a third party. As the technology moves on with batteries it will be possible to fit newer generation battery to an older vehicle and that way the car will actually have better range that what it had when it left factory. Mechanically having a drive train whose motor has only one moving part and a single gearset for transmission means that those can also fixed quite cheaply. Although I have never heard a failure yet apart from old Teslas that had actual design failure in the drive unit. But as those cars have 8 year unlimited miles warranty for the full drivetrain it was again no issue for the owner who got improved design fitted for free back in the day.

Sabre Man

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

Serviced, yes, like an EV, without the oil and filter.

And timing belts/chains, spark plugs, DPF filters.

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

At the end of the day, it is 100% guaranteed you'll have to replace the battery

No it isn't. I don't suppose you've got some data to back up this statement?

samih

Skatedude wrote: »

Lucky you, again, what about the huge part of the population who don't have driveways?

That is one of the biggest problems at the moment I think. Legislation and clear rules for EV charging will be needed, some of which is already happening. I think I read from somewhere that new developments with at least certain number of parking spaces will have have chargers installed, and in very near future.

But in general much more work is needed for houses with no fixed parking spots.

Renegade Mechanic

Sabre Man wrote: »

And timing belts/chains, spark plugs, DPF filters.

None of which should come close - combined - to the cost of a replacement battery by the time both cars have reached that mileage/age.
Overall "fuelling" costs fall towards the EV's favour, but that big battery balances it out.

And as more and more people switch over, the road tax on EV's will have to compensate for the fuel tax lost. Or the electricity price. Or both!

Sabre Man wrote: »

No it isn't. I don't suppose you've got some data to back up this statement?

Er, it's a battery? It's kind of what they do.

Renegade Mechanic

samih wrote: »

About the Lithium and Cobolt: The difference between the known reserves and the actual available deposits are two different numbers. With the current consumption the *known* reserves of Li are good for approx. 140 years. Bit like the known oil reserves from 1982 onwards:

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?product=oil&graph=reserves

Clever. Current consumption - in which everyone is essentially only using lithium to watch durty films on the quiet
Start dragging it up to meet the demands associated with replacing ICE vehicles and we should see some interesting figures pertaining to lithiums reserve longevity.

samih wrote: »

Currenlty we have over twice as many oil reserves as back in '82 even when using the stuff more and more each year. And no, we didn't run out by 1990 as was predicted back in 70's. The same will happen with Li and Co. And if those metals are really in a risk of running, it will be possible to design batteries using different metals. Ni was the previous Li and Pb before that but the technology has moved on. And anyway if Li turns out to be the best possible ingredient for batteries, the mining companies will go out and find more. At the moment there is no need to as there are great reserves available.

I don't see it myself. Back then there was two factors at play for oil - old and inaccurate geological mapping abilities and then the fact that the rules for export changed so that in essence "the more you had, the more you could export". Naturally, known reserves doubled overnight..
As for lithium in this day and age, I'd imagine they have a much better tab on what's available.

mikeecho

My current car is a diesel.. my next car.. I'm not sure.

Her car, is petrol, and we'll be replacing it with a Diesel in the next few months.

Electric, just isn't an option for us.

Tomorrow I'll have to do a 760km journey (cork to newry return)

It's long enough without having to recharge.. with the Diesel, I can do it door to door on a single tank (and probably back up again)

Silent Running

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

None of which should come close - combined - to the cost of a replacement battery by the time both cars have reached that mileage/age.
Overall "fuelling" costs fall towards the EV's favour, but that big battery balances it out.

And as more and more people switch over, the road tax on EV's will have to compensate for the fuel tax lost. Or the electricity price. Or both!


Er, it's a battery? It's kind of what they do.

Seeing as you're so informed on batteries. How many cycles do you think an I3 battery is rated for, and what would the mileage be when these cycles are completed?

samih

mikeecho wrote: »

My current car is a diesel.. my next car.. I'm not sure.

Her car, is petrol, and we'll be replacing it with a Diesel in the next few months.

Electric, just isn't an option for us.

Tomorrow I'll have to do a 760km journey (cork to newry return)

It's long enough without having to recharge.. with the Diesel, I can do it door to door on a single tank (and probably back up again)

Get one EV, whoever drives more during the day drives it unless it's beyond the range of said EV. For the occasional long trip to Newry take the diesel car.

For a two car family with a drive an EV is even better than for rest of us as you can always take the more suitable vehicle for the day.

mikeecho

samih wrote: »

Get one EV, whoever drives more during the day drives it unless it's beyond the range of said EV. For the occasional long trip to Newry take the diesel car.

For a two car family with a drive an EV is even better than for rest of us as you can always take the more suitable vehicle for the day.

I'll skip EV and wait for CNG

samih

mikeecho wrote: »

I'll skip EV and wait for CNG

It's still not clear to me why the LPG didn't become a more popular choice of fuel here about 20 years ago. That time most of the cars were petrol and it's relatively easy to convert them.

Most likely that ship has now sailed too. The power efficiency of BEVs is so much better than any convetional engine. You get many more miles per gallon running a combined heat and electricity plant and a charge a battery EV using it compared to driving on gas directly.

Renegade Mechanic

Silent Running wrote: »

Seeing as you're so informed on batteries. How many cycles do you think an I3 battery is rated for, and what would the mileage be when these cycles are completed?

Supposedly half a million miles worth of charge cycles.

Now I'm not sure, but that could be the same battery that BMW cover for 8 years or 100,000km, in terms of warranty but my "informed" self is certainly open to correction!

redcup342

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

Serviced, yes, like an EV, without the oil and filter.
Replaced? Hardly ever
At the end of the day, it is 100% guaranteed you'll have to replace the battery - and it may cost more than the car is worth.
There is no guarantee whatsoever that you'll have to replace the engine.

If a battery had 70% of its capacity after 8 years it would command at least close to 70% of it's initial value - say 5k. Not 1 or 2....

Say you do have to replace the battery, and in the Gen One Leaf is able to easily reach 200000 Kilometers, there's people driving with 240000 km on the original battery (and even then you can still use it)

Say a Diesel with a tank of fuel gets you around 1000km so we'll 65 euros for tank.

That's around 13000 euros worth of Diesel, that wouldn't have cost you a penny in the Leaf.

Now add in the Extra servicing costs.

Even if you did have to replace the battery, how much would your Diesel car with 200000 kilometers on it be worth ?

Add up the deprecation and the theoretical 13000 euros of Fuel costs + whatever you would have spent on oil.

And that ^^ Is almost 10 year old tech.

I don't get it why people are so aggressively against Electric, costs wise these days the numbers add up, back some years ago when I looked into it, it was not feasible as the cars didn't fit my commute.

My worst costs on the car were:
Depreciation, Fuel and Servicing (and Motor Tax - Although Motor Tax is much higher in NL than IE)

Depreciation, Fuel and Servicing all goes down with an electric car by a huge amount.