Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

eagle eye wrote: »

There's a nothing to be positive about in our political situation.
We don't have a majority government and it could be brought down at any time, the most opportune time for opposition parties.
We are about to face a horrendous time if there is a hard border both financially and domestically if the troubles start again.
We are tied to the fate of the UK in many ways.

I'd argue you're 1st point is most definitely a positive..

Yes , we have a minority government and the opportunity to pull the plug is there for both FF in opposition and for the Independents et al in Government.

BUT - They are currently putting country before party and recognising the potential peril we are in as a result of the utter shambles in the UK and not trying to score cheap political party points. They are showing a unified front and supporting the only viable option available for Ireland to take.

The Populace of the UK could only wish for such maturity from their political class..

prawnsambo

Just to add to the omnishambles that is British politics, it turns out that the registered address of Nigel Farage's new Brexit party is a B&B in Norwich. Cue lots of jokes on Twitter about Bed and Brexit, but to be fair, what else can you say?

Here it is in all its glory. Twitter thread worth reading if you need some light entertainment

Mr.Wemmick

eagle eye wrote: »

There's a nothing to be positive about in our political situation.
We don't have a majority government and it could be brought down at any time, the most opportune time for opposition parties.
We are about to face a horrendous time if there is a hard border both financially and domestically if the troubles start again.
We are tied to the fate of the UK in many ways.

Without a doubt, there is a dark side to all of this for Ireland. We could end up with England free of NI while we are thrown into turmoil with North and South not easy bedfellows at best, and at worst, well, it doesn't bear thinking about.. The UK could settle down in time, but not so for Ireland.

Trouble is brewing between France and Italy, the EU itself could become fractious and there might be little support for Ireland then. The EU elections in May are more important now than ever before.. what will the EU think, say and do later in the year, who knows?

Tell me how

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Without a doubt, there is a dark side to all of this for Ireland. We could end up with England free of NI while we are thrown into turmoil with North and South not easy bedfellows at best, and at worst, well, it doesn't bear thinking about.. The UK could settle down in time, but not so for Ireland.

Trouble is brewing between France and Italy, the EU itself could become fractious and there might be little support for Ireland then. The EU elections in May are more important now than ever before.. what will the EU think, say and do later in the year, who knows?

This sounds like the book report of a student who hadn't read the book but asked his classmate what it was about for ten seconds before class started.

Personally, I don't think there should be a UI poll for at least ten years because holding it amidst the turmoil of Brexit and the aftermath will lead to a largely reactionary vote without due analysis of the situation.

All the other if's, what's, maybes..... don't know what to say about them other than you could be right, who knows.

prawnsambo

Tell me how wrote: »

This sounds like the book report of a student who hadn't read the book but asked his classmate what it was about for ten seconds before class started.

Personally, I don't think there should be a UI poll for at least ten years because holding it amidst the turmoil of Brexit and the aftermath will lead to a largely reactionary vote without due analysis of the situation.

All the other if's, what's, maybes..... don't know what to say about them other than you could be right, who knows.

Ten years is far too long. And in any case, it won't be us driving it. The request has to come from the SoS for NI and the impetus for that has to come from a significant change of opinion in NI. If it's a hard brexit, I can't see it taking a long time for that change of opinion to happen.

May's deal would be a different story. A change of opinion might never come.

10000maniacs

Godot. wrote: »

Unpopular opinion, but there is far too much uber nationalism/anti Britishness in the Irish media recently. The likes of Fintan O'Toole are almost uncomfortable to read now. We criticise the Brits for jingoism via outlets like the Daily Mail/Express etc, but we seem unable to realise when we're partaking in similar behaviour.

The difference is the Irish didn't vote for Brexit, but we will be the second most affected country if there is a crash-out. We have much more of a right to complain about them.
If someone strolls into your shop, walks out with the cash register and complains that they weren't offered a drink on the way out, that's the Daily Express and the Daily Mail whinging about Ireland.

Tell me how

prawnsambo wrote: »

Ten years is far too long. And in any case, it won't be us driving it. The request has to come from the SoS for NI and the impetus for that has to come from a significant change of opinion in NI. If it's a hard brexit, I can't see it taking a long time for that change of opinion to happen.

May's deal would be a different story. A change of opinion might never come.

Having a referendum motivated purely my the impact of a hard brexit would not be guaranteed to result in a United Ireland. I'm not so sure we (the country) could afford it.

It's already 5 years since the scottish referendum, heading for 3 for Brexit. Time moves by at a fair clip. Ten years is not that far away.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Saw an interesting tweet which bears repeating:

https://twitter.com/Whoozley/status/1095312610264825861

This aligns with the reporting from May's recent jaunt to Brussels and meeting with Tusk.

We are told that during the meeting, May ruled out Corbyn's (wishy washy) proposals and told Tusk that the UK will leave on the 29th March whatever the circumstances.

So.. there are only really two possible outcomes at this point:

1. The House of Commons are forced to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement as agreed VS No Deal. Or, 2. The House of Commons 'take control', extend Article 50 and then...

Everything seems to point to '1'. I dont see how the HOC can agree to extend A50 (never mind the EU27) when:

(a) They may only get 3 month extension due to EU elections (b) They cannot formulate a unanimous position

I still don't know if they will be able to get through all the legislation that needs to be done once they vote for her deal. Also, even if they go with no deal there will need to be legislation done for that as well, right? So May is insisting on leaving on the 29th March either by scaring MPs in voting for her deal or by not having a deal but there will no legislation for any scenario. Do I have that right?


In any case, here is a good question from Ken Clark to the PM and a typical answer from May that as far as I could make out didn't say much of anything related to the question.

I have had a go at her answer, trying to simplify it. They will seek to leave the EU with a deal that maintains their current trade deals (her deal), or in the event of no deal they will hope to maintain the current deals by signing on for the same trade terms of the current deals. But they want to leave the EU so they can have their own trade deals with the same countries they currently have trade deals with, but better ones.

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1095312564798525440

Enzokk

Godot. wrote: »

Unpopular opinion, but there is far too much uber nationalism/anti Britishness in the Irish media recently. The likes of Fintan O'Toole are almost uncomfortable to read now. We criticise the Brits for jingoism via outlets like the Daily Mail/Express etc, but we seem unable to realise when we're partaking in similar behaviour.

Do you have examples of what you see in your post? Its not that I disagree off hand but if you are able to show what you think is uber nationalism in the Irish media we could look at it from a different point of view and comment on it.

LuckyLloyd

Enzokk wrote: »

I still don't know if they will be able to get through all the legislation that needs to be done once they vote for her deal. Also, even if they go with no deal there will need to be legislation done for that as well, right? So May is insisting on leaving on the 29th March either by scaring MPs in voting for her deal or by not having a deal but there will no legislation for any scenario. Do I have that right?


In any case, here is a good question from Ken Clark to the PM and a typical answer from May that as far as I could make out didn't say much of anything related to the question.

I have had a go at her answer, trying to simplify it. They will seek to leave the EU with a deal that maintains their current trade deals (her deal), or in the event of no deal they will hope to maintain the current deals by signing on for the same trade terms of the current deals. But they want to leave the EU so they can have their own trade deals with the same countries they currently have trade deals with, but better ones.

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1095312564798525440

But, apparently, were an Irish journalist to write an opinion piece on that garbled nonsense from May pointing out that it is, in fact, garbled nonsense it would be evidence of us being too “anti Brit”.

VinLieger

prawnsambo wrote: »

The request has to come from the SoS for NI and the impetus for that has to come from a significant change of opinion in NI.

Lets be real here under any tory government the NI SoS is an empty seat who will do whatever they are told by their PM regardless of on the ground sentiment, this is especially true with its current short straw recipient karen bradley.

Enzokk

Here is an interesting comment piece on what could happen in the event of no deal.

A no-deal Brexit won’t result in a siege. The EU will be more clinical than that

In truth, the short-term impact of a no-deal Brexit would be not nearly as bad as predicted, but the long-term impact will be much worse than feared. Why? Because the British political class still fails to understand how the EU will respond to the crisis.

In a no-deal Brexit, the EU will not place the UK under some medieval siege; there won’t be trucks filled with rotting food in Calais or shortages of medicines in pharmacies. Planes will continue to fly, though British travellers would face longer queues at borders (yet still enjoy visa-free travel). A thin agreement – covering areas from aviation to contract continuity – would be quickly concluded.

The author says that the EU will systematically put pressure on those industries in the UK until in a decade there will be not much left in the UK. Part of this is due to the swivel from manufacturing during the Thatcher years which means and that base doesn't exist any longer to swivel from international to domestic production.

Instead, the EU’s response to a no deal will be strategic: opening up advantage, sector by sector, calmly and patiently dismantling the UK’s leading industries over the course of a decade. They will eat the elephant one bite at a time. The problem with abandoning the rules of the international order is that you no longer enjoy their protection.

A no-deal Brexit would hand the EU enormous power: it would decide how and when to introduce new frictions between the UK and the single market, giving sufficient time for firms like Airbus, Nissan or AstraZeneca to relocate production. As recent decisions have demonstrated, even seemingly fixed capital investment is more mobile than many Brexiters imagine.

The EU would set out a timeline over which it would introduce compliance and rules of origin checks on the UK’s most competitive exporting sectors. It is not hard to imagine checks on automotive parts from 2021, pharmaceuticals from 2022 and aerospace from 2023, alongside constantly shifting sands of equivalence for financial services. This would allow firms an orderly departure from the UK to the single market. It will be a steady drift away from the UK, not an avalanche. Moreover, the absence of any agreement would mean lasting uncertainty that would deter future investment. The UK is particularly exposed in this regard: our serious lack of competitiveness is demonstrated by persistently large trade deficits. This means the UK is heavily reliant on foreign investment – the “kindness of strangers” – which would likely collapse. It is not hard to imagine a future government going cap in hand to the IMF for a bailout.

BobbyBobberson

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is an interesting comment piece on what could happen in the event of no deal.

A no-deal Brexit won’t result in a siege. The EU will be more clinical than that



The author says that the EU will systematically put pressure on those industries in the UK until in a decade there will be not much left in the UK. Part of this is due to the swivel from manufacturing during the Thatcher years which means and that base doesn't exist any longer to swivel from international to domestic production.

I have to say I found that to be a great read. Really interesting stuff.

J Mysterio

Enzokk wrote: »

I still don't know if they will be able to get through all the legislation that needs to be done once they vote for her deal. Also, even if they go with no deal there will need to be legislation done for that as well, right? So May is insisting on leaving on the 29th March either by scaring MPs in voting for her deal or by not having a deal but there will no legislation for any scenario. Do I have that right?

That's my understanding, yes. I think that they have already been ramming legislation through though, without parliamentary oversight. I imagine they will aim to hammer the rest of it through in the same way. The great majority of which will be copy-paste from EU law.

Could be wrong but I believe the government adopted a 'Henry VIII clause' or something to that effect which - unbelievably in a parliamentary democracy - allows for this.

Take back control etc.

WomanSkirtFan8

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is an interesting comment piece on what could happen in the event of no deal.

A no-deal Brexit won’t result in a siege. The EU will be more clinical than that



The author says that the EU will systematically put pressure on those industries in the UK until in a decade there will be not much left in the UK. Part of this is due to the swivel from manufacturing during the Thatcher years which means and that base doesn't exist any longer to swivel from international to domestic production.

So in other words, instead of the UK gaining power and influence from Brexit (which of course was never actually going to happen), they'll be giving more power back to the EU? What absolute idiots.:cool:

Leroy42

This is the real effects of Brexit and the complete lack of preparation that the UK has done



https://twitter.com/the3million/status/1095296657409957888

The UK seem to simply take the view that 'sure'it'll be grand' and don't worry about it. Laws, apparently, are not going to matter after Brexit.

Think about that for a second. The governments position seems to be that they will simply abandon the current laws with nothing to replace them and people will just have to sort it all out for themselves.

RobMc59

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

But, apparently, were an Irish journalist to write an opinion piece on that garbled nonsense from May pointing out that it is, in fact, garbled nonsense it would be evidence of us being too “anti Brit”.

To argue that fintan o'toole isn't anti British is an interesting opinion.An example of his even handedness on this subject would probably be quite difficult to find i imagine.

BobbyBobberson

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is the real effects of Brexit and the complete lack of preparation that the UK has done



https://twitter.com/the3million/status/1095296657409957888

The UK seem to simply take the view that 'sure'it'll be grand' and don't worry about it. Laws, apparently, are not going to matter after Brexit.

Think about that for a second. The governments position seems to be that they will simply abandon the current laws with nothing to replace them and people will just have to sort it all out for themselves.

Yup, utterly crazy. And you know what, The Tories will still get in again. I think it was Jon Stone of the Independent in the UK tweeted last night that there are Tories who know the risks and still think they would get away with it all.

Akrasia

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is an interesting comment piece on what could happen in the event of no deal.

A no-deal Brexit won’t result in a siege. The EU will be more clinical than that



The author says that the EU will systematically put pressure on those industries in the UK until in a decade there will be not much left in the UK. Part of this is due to the swivel from manufacturing during the Thatcher years which means and that base doesn't exist any longer to swivel from international to domestic production.

I think the EU needs to give the UK a short term shock rather shepard them into than a long term decline.

I think the best chance we have of maintaining a stable Europe if the UK crash out of the EU with no deal is for EU to allow all the treaties to lapse on 29th of March (which is what they now claim to have voted for) and then let them come to the EU with their proposals for how to reinstate trade and aviation and the other areas of established international cooperation.

The EU is all about stability on the continent, and we don't want another Weimar republic developing with a nuclear armed and increasingly desperate and insular block developing a seething resentment of the EU.

If the UK get what they wanted and crash out to WTO terms and get a short sharp shock, there is a much better chance that they will come back to the EU to do a deal which is sustainable in the long term. It is not in the EU's interest to have the UK fall to pieces on the frontier of the EU. The EU has been reasonable so far, the UK have been deluded. If they get a dose of reality, they might be in a better state to return to the EU and rejoin the customs union and single market under fair and reasonable terms.

The UK political system is on a knife edge. It is closer than it has been in a very long time to a collapse into nationalistic extremism. Ireland would be severely affected by a major swing to extremism in UK politics.

Havockk

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Yup, utterly crazy. And you know what, The Tories will still get in again. I think it was Jon Stone of the Independent in the UK tweeted last night that there are Tories who know the risks and still think they would get away with it all.

This will destroy them. I'm not sure the Tories or many in the UK understand just how far the earth has moved under them in recent years. Full effects of this have not yet been felt, but the warning signs for the Tories have been there for a while with declining membership and funding as well as the youth all but disappearing. If they stagger on for another 5 to 10 years I'll be shocked.

BobbyBobberson

Havockk wrote: »

This will destroy them. I'm not sure the Tories or many in the UK understand just how far the earth has moved under them in recent years. Full effects of this have not yet been felt, but the warning signs for the Tories have been there for a while with declining membership and funding as well as the youth all but disappearing. If they stagger on for another 5 to 10 years I'll be shocked.

Personally I hope you're right.

L1011

The Tories will continue to get young candidates and college branches but the actual constituency organisations that keep the safe seats safe are literally dying of old age

Leroy42

L1011 wrote: »

The Tories will continue to get young candidates and college branches but the actual constituency organisations that keep the safe seats safe are literally dying of old age

Yeah, I really don't see any real impact on the Tories in the long term. They are blessed to have Corbyn as the leader of Labour as if they had someone with the talents of Blair then they could conceivable to looking at 20/30 years in the wilderness.

Latest polling suggests that they may even win a small majority in an election!

Folkstonian

L1011 wrote: »

The Tories will continue to get young candidates and college branches but the actual constituency organisations that keep the safe seats safe are literally dying of old age

It hasn’t happened for the last 200 years and I’ve seen precious little evidence to suggest it will happen now.

You’d have to think that conservatism only gained traction in British society in the mid 80s if you wanted to subscribe to the ‘old tories will die off and Jeremy will build a socialist paradise from the ground up’ school of thought

Tell me how

Havockk wrote: »

This will destroy them. I'm not sure the Tories or many in the UK understand just how far the earth has moved under them in recent years. Full effects of this have not yet been felt, but the warning signs for the Tories have been there for a while with declining membership and funding as well as the youth all but disappearing. If they stagger on for another 5 to 10 years I'll be shocked.

It is a measure of just how bad Corbyn is (and Labour by extension) that the Tories are still the strongest party in the UK.

It really cannot be forgotten and should be a foot note in every comment about Theresa May's performance that not once in the whole of the Brexit experience has Labour got the better of them.

They will try to blame this experience on the Tories but they have facilitated May through their sheer ineptitude. There are some shining lights in their party (as there are in the conservatives) but their leadership and particularly Corbyn, Abbott, Thornberry seem to be playing politics in responding to any topic simply in the way they learnt to when they first joined Labour youth.

1 - Blame the Tories
2 - Say that we would do much better
3 - Refuse to say how we would do much better

L1011

Folkstonian wrote: »

It hasn’t happened for the last 200 years and I’ve seen precious little evidence to suggest it will happen now.

You’d have to think that conservatism only gained traction in British society in the mid 80s if you wanted to subscribe to the ‘old tories will die off and Jeremy will build a socialist paradise from the ground up’ school of thought

The age profile of party members has been getting older and older without pause for quite some time - this wasn't happening before

prawnsambo

Folkstonian wrote: »

It hasn’t happened for the last 200 years and I’ve seen precious little evidence to suggest it will happen now.

You’d have to think that conservatism only gained traction in British society in the mid 80s if you wanted to subscribe to the ‘old tories will die off and Jeremy will build a socialist paradise from the ground up’ school of thought

I think Jeremy also falls under the 'old age' exit system in the post you responded to. And even if not, he's proven many times over that he's not the answer either.



On a somewhat related note, I wonder did you see my post about this?

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

So what exactly has been agreed? It came across as simply a rollover of the current deal, but why would the Swiss do that when the y know the pressure the UK are under? It would be crazy to simply give the UK what they currently have without getting something in return.

Until now, London was Switzerland's preferred point of access to the EU for the provision of financial services. The cynic in me suspects that what the Swiss are getting out of this deal is - literally - their money. I would imagine that they have large amounts of money tied up in investments that cannot be cashed in at short notice, and probably not easily transferred to another EU country either. So they need the assurance of being able to repatriate those funds as smoothly as possible once they become available.

They've also got a sizeable pharma industry (aswell as chocolate!) and might be looking at post-Brexit Britain as a golden opportunity to get their drugs into the market while EU companies are handicapped by FTA negotiations.

Kermit.de.frog

Apparently UK is telling EU and EU leaders now that the backstop is illegal under the treaties.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yeah, I really don't see any real impact on the Tories in the long term. They are blessed to have Corbyn as the leader of Labour as if they had someone with the talents of Blair then they could conceivable to looking at 20/30 years in the wilderness.

Latest polling suggests that they may even win a small majority in an election!

I agree that the polling looks terrible for Labour and Corbyn and he has been a disaster as a leader of the opposition when it comes to Brexit. But you have to remember that he was facing a 19 point deficit according to the polls in 2017 and things have not improved for most people in the UK in the every day life since then either.

I share the absolute dismay at his handling of Brexit but I also think if there was a GE called that Labour would comfortably win a majority, not due to Brexit but because people are having to use food banks in the UK.