Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

What exactly are the UK Government actually doing?

Isn't May to address the commons today, a day earlier than she was supposed to, in order to give the house something to think about?

First Up

BonnieSituation wrote:

Yet again the "best civil service in the world" and its incompetence getting in the way of its citizenry and their wishes. :0

I have some sympathy for the British civil service. Its the politicians who keep handing them ticking bombs that are mostly to blame.

J Mysterio

Brilliant opening paragraph in todays Fintan O'Toole article on Brexit:

Those ships have already sailed. Since last Friday, freighters leaving UK ports for Australia and New Zealand are sailing into the unknown. Their voyage will take 50 days, so they will arrive after March 29th, which means they have departed with no idea of what trading regime will apply when they try to land their goods.

From next Friday the same will be true of ships leaving Britain for ports in Asia. In its own weird way, Brexit is already replicating the conditions of heroic 18th-century imperial exploration. Every captain is a Captain Cook. These stout mariners may know where they are going in a literal sense, but they have no idea what awaits them. Quarantine? Tariffs? Demands for papers they do not have? They have left a place of legal certainty and are going into the trading equivalent of terra incognita. The 67 trade arrangements the UK has with and through the EU could lapse overnight on March 29th.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-the-uk-is-taking-back-not-control-but-tedium-1.3790074

Really strange times we're living in. So irresponsible it's criminal, treasonous.

10000maniacs

prawnsambo wrote: »

Andrew Adonis is running a countdown on Twitter to keep us all apprised of developments or lack thereof.

The Swiss deal is interesting. I would guess a large proportion of the richest 1% of the UK population do their banking in Switzerland. To paraphrase Don Logan, Preparation, preparation, preparation.

Leroy42

What was interesting in the reporting of the Swiss deal, were of course it was all the smiles and Liam Fox saying how great it was and a Swiss businessman saying how they wanted clarity etc.

Then a PWC person came out and said it was great and they welcomed it but that the 'details would need to be examined'. (I'm paraphrasing as I can't locate the exact quote)

So what exactly has been agreed? It came across as simply a rollover of the current deal, but why would the Swiss do that when the y know the pressure the UK are under? It would be crazy to simply give the UK what they currently have without getting something in return.

Adamcp898

Hurrache wrote: »

Isn't May to address the commons today, a day earlier than she was supposed to, in order to give the house something to think about?

Yes and apparently she is due to say "we now all need to hold our nerve" with the message "By getting the changes we need to the backstop; by protecting and enhancing workers' rights and environmental protections; and by enhancing the role of Parliament in the next phase of negotiations I believe we can reach a deal that this House can support."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47206286



If she's successful in doing so and if it ever comes out in the coming years that indeed all May has been doing in this period is "batting out time", history will paint Remainers and soft-Brexiters as nothing but bufoons. It will criticise them for being so easily led by simple phrases such as "we now all need to hold our nerve" amongst others all designed to appeal to stiff upper lips and similar notions.

Leroy42

As the C4 video linked to earlier states, this really is the easy bit of Brexit.

Once 29th (or whatever the final date is) passes then the real work starts. Going out to try to get the trade deals, not just with the EU but the US (which I understand they have already been working on), India, China, well everywhere.

And of course the public will actually have lost interest by then. There won't be a deadline to hit, there won't be a split in Government and trade deals are very difficult to report on as they are both massive and very technical.

They bang on about this £39bn (payable to 2060 I believe), but we have laready seen with TM's recent trip to Africa and the promise of £4bn aid, that there will be plenty of side deals to get the main deal done.

Will they give in anything on the Falklands for example in order to get better trade terms with Argentina. What about extra visas for India? What about 1st pick on infrastructure investments to the Chinese?

None of these will make the news until well after the deals are done but that will be the true cost of Brexit.

Brexit is only starting.

Igotadose

Leroy42 wrote: »

So what exactly has been agreed? It came across as simply a rollover of the current deal, but why would the Swiss do that when the y know the pressure the UK are under? It would be crazy to simply give the UK what they currently have without getting something in return.

Statement from Swiss government here: https://www.wbf.admin.ch/wbf/en/home/dokumentation/nsb-news_list.msg-id-73940.html

Seems like it's a rollover with some exceptions in (what to me) seem like small areas: "It replicates the vast majority of the trade agreements with the EU that currently govern relations between Switzerland and the United Kingdom: the 1972 Free Trade Agreement, the Agreement on Public Procurement, the Agreement on the Fight against Fraud, part of the Agreement on Mutual Recognition in Relation to Conformity Assessment and the 1999 Agreement on Agriculture. "

There's this though: "Some agreements between Switzerland and the EU are based on harmonisation or recognition of the equivalence of rules between the two parties (2009 Agreement on Customs Facilitation, some sections of the Agreement on Agriculture including the annex known as the ‘veterinary agreement’ and some sections of the Agreement on Mutual Recognition in Relation to Conformity Assessment) and cannot be replicated in their entirety at this stage. "

Christy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

What was interesting in the reporting of the Swiss deal, were of course it was all the smiles and Liam Fox saying how great it was and a Swiss businessman saying how they wanted clarity etc.

Then a PWC person came out and said it was great and they welcomed it but that the 'details would need to be examined'. (I'm paraphrasing as I can't locate the exact quote)

So what exactly has been agreed? It came across as simply a rollover of the current deal, but why would the Swiss do that when the y know the pressure the UK are under? It would be crazy to simply give the UK what they currently have without getting something in return.

It depends. The Swiss seems to not mind what they have with the EU. They don't want the UK to change standards and they don't want visas. Really there is not an awful lot else they want from the UK except the banking which was part of the deal.

It is a rollover of current arrangements. I am not sure if it will be under pressure if the UK changed standards. Presumably the Swiss would simply import less from the UK if standards dipped below Swiss.

mrbrianj

breatheme wrote: »

The CTA itself as a concept can survive. No checks on passports between Ireland and UK.

There are several checks carried on at a border:

1. Passport checks; can you come in with this passport? Do you need a visa?
2. Checking goods; can you bring in these goods into the country? Do you need to pay VAT on them? Do you need to declare them?
3. Capital flows; can you come in with this amount of money? Do you need to declare it? Do you need to pay some it at customs?

The EU eliminates (2) and (3). The CTA eliminates (1).

The CTA can survive. Imagine this, when you cross from Ireland into NI, you get your boot opened up and checked and you have to fill in a form if you bring in money that is more than 10000 pounds.

Then you are checking for (2) and (3), but if you don't require that the person show a passport, you're not checking for (1) and the CTA has survived.

This is what people mean when they say "we had the CTA before the EU" because even though there were customs checks, people could cross the border without a passport (i.e. with a driver's license).

The CTA is not actually agreed on paper anywhere. And as long as Irish citizens can enter the UK without a passport and vice-versa (which is currently not under threat) then the CTA "survives" even if the open border doesn't.

This is not about the CTA, it's about the border.

That was all well and good before the EEC, but now we are EU citizens as well as Irish citizens. The UK are not too fond of some EU citizens (post March 31st anyway).
There are plenty of Poles and Romanians with Irish driving licenses - according to the UK media one of the reasons for Brexit was to keep EU citizens like these out of their country.

Panrich

Leroy42 wrote: »

Taken from the Guardians Live Politics blog, so don't have direct link to the tweet;





So they are not trying, per Leadsom, to change the WA. They are not going to hold a vote until late March. What exactly are the UK Government actually doing?

Here's a scary take on what May is planning

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-fallback-plan_uk_5c617348e4b0910c63f30fc8?fbm&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

Party before country. Anyone in parliament against a no-deal Brexit needs to mobilise ASAP.

LuckyLloyd

Panrich wrote: »

Here's a scary take on what May is planning

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-fallback-plan_uk_5c617348e4b0910c63f30fc8?fbm&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

Party before country. Anyone in parliament against a no-deal Brexit needs to mobilise ASAP.

As appealed to by Donald Tusk last week! There will still be voices in the UK talking about how Parliament will never allow a No Deal Exit on April 1st!!

breatheme

mrbrianj wrote: »

That was all well and good before the EEC, but now we are EU citizens as well as Irish citizens. The UK are not too fond of some EU citizens (post March 31st anyway).
There are plenty of Poles and Romanians with Irish driving licenses - according to the UK media one of the reasons for Brexit was to keep EU citizens like these out of their country.

Yeah but once again, the UK seems to not be too bothered with people from Bolivia or Fiji entering Ireland and so on. If they don't have a problem with that, now, then...

Godot.

Unpopular opinion, but there is far too much uber nationalism/anti Britishness in the Irish media recently. The likes of Fintan O'Toole are almost uncomfortable to read now. We criticise the Brits for jingoism via outlets like the Daily Mail/Express etc, but we seem unable to realise when we're partaking in similar behaviour.

Leroy42

In all this Brexit mess, the one area that would be most concerned about my future should I live there is NI. I see the relationship will be fundamentally changed whatever the outcome.

If WM accepts the deal then NI, in terms of the DUP etc, will feel let down by TM and the Tories. But the UK will continue to see them as a drain on their ambitions, due to the UK wide backstop, which curtails the trade deals the UK can do. On top of that, it is almost inevitable that questions will start to be raised as to the massive financial support that is paid by GB to NI every year. In addition, there is likely to be some resentment when it becomes clear that people in NI actually have, because of the GFA and ability to choose Irish passport, more rights than those in the UK.

If No deal crash happens, will GB start to look over at NI as the cause of the problems? It is likely that the economy of NI will take a hit and thus require even more subvention from UK, at a time of possible recession. Will this be available? What will the workers in Sunderland think of increased subvention to NI when Nissan starts to cut jobs?

prawnsambo

Panrich wrote: »

Here's a scary take on what May is planning

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-fallback-plan_uk_5c617348e4b0910c63f30fc8?fbm&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

Party before country. Anyone in parliament against a no-deal Brexit needs to mobilise ASAP.

The last paragraph is somewhat amusing:

Because of the lack of preparedness and the chaos that would ensue, any last semblance that the Tory party is at least competent, even if you don’t like them, would go out of the window.

The lack of competence in the Tory party has been obvious for some time now.

Hurrache

Godot. wrote: »

Unpopular opinion, but there is far too much uber nationalism/anti Britishness in the Irish media recently. The likes of Fintan O'Toole are almost uncomfortable to read now. We criticise the Brits for jingoism via outlets like the Daily Mail/Express etc, but we seem unable to realise when we're partaking in similar behaviour.

There's a lot of self hating Brits out there so as many refer to his articles as a good insight to what's happening within British politics, and why.

I don't see any anti Britishness, but I do see a lot of fair criticism aimed at the UK parliament and Brexiters.

J Mysterio

Saw an interesting tweet which bears repeating:

https://twitter.com/Whoozley/status/1095312610264825861

This aligns with the reporting from May's recent jaunt to Brussels and meeting with Tusk.

We are told that during the meeting, May ruled out Corbyn's (wishy washy) proposals and told Tusk that the UK will leave on the 29th March whatever the circumstances.

So.. there are only really two possible outcomes at this point:

1. The House of Commons are forced to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement as agreed VS No Deal. Or, 2. The House of Commons 'take control', extend Article 50 and then...

Everything seems to point to '1'. I dont see how the HOC can agree to extend A50 (never mind the EU27) when:

(a) They may only get 3 month extension due to EU elections (b) They cannot formulate a unanimous position

Hurrache

Johnson wants out of the backstop, but there's also no point in having a time limit backstop without it ending before the next general election
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1095319443469676545

breatheme

"Unless the end date falls before the next general elections" sounds to me a lot like "I will only accept a backstop I don't have to deal with, since I intend to run in the next elections and don't want to deal with it."

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Enough of the unsubstantiated claims please.

Hurrache

breatheme wrote: »

"Unless the end date falls before the next general elections" sounds to me a lot like "I will only accept a backstop I don't have to deal with, since I intend to run in the next elections and don't want to deal with it."

It's pretty much it isn't it. Yeah, we'll have the backstop, but the agreement must be changed to time limit it, and the date it ends HAS to be before the next election. i.e. so the next UK government can just unilaterally end it, so up yours. What planet is he on.

Shelga

Hurrache wrote: »

Johnson wants out of the backstop, but there's also no point in having a time limit backstop without it ending before the next general election
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1095319443469676545

All the comments are calling him out at least. He doesn’t have a plan, he never did. It basically amounts to treason and Tusk was completely correct with his remarks.

VinLieger

Godot. wrote: »

Unpopular opinion, but there is far too much uber nationalism/anti Britishness in the Irish media recently. The likes of Fintan O'Toole are almost uncomfortable to read now. We criticise the Brits for jingoism via outlets like the Daily Mail/Express etc, but we seem unable to realise when we're partaking in similar behaviour.

That's a complete false equivalence, none of our media are anywhere close to spewing the vile and vitriolic lies the mail, express and telegraph have been pumping out.

BobbyBobberson

VinLieger wrote: »

That's a complete false equivalence, none of our media are anywhere close to spewing the vile and vitriolic lies the mail, express and telegraph have been pumping out.

I'd be genuinely interested to see some links to such articles. Did anyone read O'Toole's book? I am halfway through it.

Water John

TM has confirmed to Grieve today that she doesn't see the need for 21 days notice, thus she is intent on going to the 11th hour with her own Parliament.
Time for HoC to rule out No Deal Brexit.

An Ciarraioch

Godot. wrote: »

Unpopular opinion, but there is far too much uber nationalism/anti Britishness in the Irish media recently. The likes of Fintan O'Toole are almost uncomfortable to read now. We criticise the Brits for jingoism via outlets like the Daily Mail/Express etc, but we seem unable to realise when we're partaking in similar behaviour.

Criticising UK politicians for the lack of a coherent strategy for implementing Brexit hardly equates to anti-Britishness - many British op-ed pieces have taken a similar line.

LuckyLloyd

Godot. wrote: »

Unpopular opinion, but there is far too much uber nationalism/anti Britishness in the Irish media recently. The likes of Fintan O'Toole are almost uncomfortable to read now. We criticise the Brits for jingoism via outlets like the Daily Mail/Express etc, but we seem unable to realise when we're partaking in similar behaviour.

We have some objective realities:

• UK political structures have made a complete mess of the process of Brexit
• UK political structures are currently suffering a near consitutional crisis due to Brexit
• UK political structures are currently putting Party politics ahead of the national interest with potentially devastating consequences
• Sections of UK political discourse and the media have shown complete contempt for the concept of Irish sovereignty and UK responsibilities under the GFA
• By contrast, we currently have a united political position in Ireland on Brexit
• There is approx 80% public support for Irish Government's Brexit handling as per polling last week

Leave aside your emotion. Leave aside any fuzzy feelings you may hold towards Britain and the UK. Leave aside any understanding / assumptions you held in the past regarding the relative competence of Irish / UK politics. And leave aside any understanding you may have had about the public mood in Ireland towards the national project, and how that may have been confused at times with a public rejection of IRA activities.

The reality is that there is little or nothing positive to say about the political situation in the UK right now. There is a lot to be positive about our political situation by contrast. And if opinion pieces in Irish media reflect that, they're right.

There is no good solid argument for Brexit as a concept and certainly no argument available in support of how the UK government have approached the topic, stretching back to 2010. Sure, there are emotional arguments. Who cares. They have rightly been rejected. The facts and reality is simple as far as the UK and Brexit is concerned: it's a terrible event in UK political history. And they are close to self imposed economic Armageddon. Hard to be positive in that context!

eagle eye

LuckyLloyd wrote:

The reality is that there is little or nothing positive to say about the political situation in the UK right now. There is a lot to be positive about our political situation by contrast. And if opinion pieces in Irish media reflect that, they're right.

There's a nothing to be positive about in our political situation.
We don't have a majority government and it could be brought down at any time, the most opportune time for opposition parties.
We are about to face a horrendous time if there is a hard border both financially and domestically if the troubles start again.
We are tied to the fate of the UK in many ways.

LuckyLloyd

eagle eye wrote: »

There's a nothing to be positive about in our political situation.
We don't have a majority government and it could be brought down at any time, the most opportune time for opposition parties.
We are about to face a horrendous time if there is a hard border both financially and domestically if the troubles start again.
We are tied to the fate of the UK in many ways.

Despite the weakness of the present government in terms of their parliamentary arithmetic, they have been facilitated to continue by the opposition because there is a recognition of the national import of Brexit and the need for unity over and above party political ambitions. And - despite the necessary focus devoted to Brexit - we've still managed to pass momentous social change in the form of the rejection of the 8th Amendment.

Your claim that there is "nothing" positive in our political situation is objectively risible.

In terms of the rest: ERSI projections say a Hard Brexit wouldn't even kick us into a recession. It will affect certain sectors of our economy head on, but overall we'll be okay. And the entire process has demonstrated how far we as a nation have moved away from being "tied" to the fate of the UK. We have been able to project our sovereignty in an anglo Irish dispute to a level over and above anything that has ever come before in our history. Moreover, the economic data is clearly indicating that Irish business sees the writing on the wall and is moving towards the EU market and away from the UK one year on year.

I think your post is objectively lacking in substance.