Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Capt'n Midnight

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

If it means the UK will now be forced to triple it's border force and increase passport/HGV checks, it will reduce their level of migration. In future they'll only offer work permits to those earning 30k along with other criteria.

LOL

That 30K is just window dressing ,
change the job title and an experienced worker can be re classified as a new entrant.

https://www.hr.admin.cam.ac.uk/hr-services/immigration/working-uk/time-limited-right-work/tier-2-recruitment-guidance/minimum

From 6 April 2017, the minimum salary rate for 'new entrants' is £20,800, and for 'experienced workers' is £30,000.

First Up

Quin_Dub wrote:

And that's before they get to those "Something to declare" gates!

And that's just people with suitcases. Now think of a few hundred truck loads with delivery deadlines to meet.

downcow

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The border will be in the Irish sea in the end.

Even with the backstop NI remains in single market, still means border in the Irish sea.

I suspect both Labour and Tories will throw the DUP under the bus in the end.

Well thats that sorted then. No need for the thread. Kermit has it covered lol

and you know the irony - we're still ok in NI - even in your scenario.

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

Excellent video.
Of course it will not be a surprise to you that I would like us to land in something like Canada plus. What I find frustrating is that the EU, for whatever reason, do not want to facilitate. The GFA/peace stuff is utter nonsense. Their interest is £s. I am still confident they will not push the EU and the UK over the edge, and Ireland needs to realise we will all be landing on top of them as they are going to take the worst pain.
Is there a reason why Ireland will not allow EU to negotiate a Canada plus type arrangement.
I regard myself as moderate, but I would absolutely go WTO rather than consider a fool (predictive text can be Freudian sometimes LOL, I considered correcting this to what I meant i.e. full, but thought I would just leave it as it may be an appropriate slip), indefinite, backstop.
We have interesting days ahead. Fair play to Ireland, they have been uncompromising to this point, but I am confident Italy, Germany, etc will begin to lean on them shortly

The GFA and the peace process is far from nonsence, I am surprised that you would say such a thing, surely you would not prefer to live in an active conflict zone with bombs going off every week?

There is not an open border between the EU and Canada, a Canada type deal would not be sufficient by itself to keep the NI/Ireland border open. It's a bit of a mute point for now, trade talks have not begun yet as the UK is still in the EU. The Irish government has not yet had an opportunity to prevent the EU from agreeing a Ceanada type trade deal. You have to agree a Withdrawl Treaty before a trade deal can begin.

Ireland has full solidarity from the EU, there is no prospect of this changing.

Irishmale0399

downcow wrote: »

Well thats that sorted then. No need for the thread. Kermit has it covered lol

and you know the irony - we're still ok in NI - even in your scenario.

May I ask a personal question or 2....no offence....


How do you think things will pan out on 29 March???


How would you personally like it to work out???

CelticRambler

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

In Northern Ireland it's 60-70

Not 60%-70%, just 60-70 permits.

There's 13,000 crossing into the EU every day from NI.

I read recently (can't remember where, but I think it was a government-issued notice) that there's an all-island arrangement in place that avoids the need for NI trucks to have an EU permit for journeys within the RoI. That means NI drivers will just take their trailer to Dublin and leave it there for onward travel, and probably collect one to take back to the North. Local hauliers won't be too badly affected, but the continental jobs will obviously all go to RoI drivers.

downcow

A wee bit of good news From the BBC - just 69 to go lol

The UK and Switzerland have signed a deal to continue trading after Brexit as they did before it.

The "continuity agreement" - based on the EU's existing free trade deal with Switzerland - was agreed in December but ratified on Monday.

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said the deal would "continue the preferential trade that we have".

The UK is seeking to replicate about 40 EU free trade agreements, covering more than 70 countries.

Around £32bn of trade is done between the UK and Switzerland each year, with 15,000 British exporters trading with the country.

Mr Fox said: "Switzerland is one of the most valuable trading partners that we are seeking continuity for. This is of huge economic importance to UK businesses.

"Not only will this help to support jobs throughout the UK but it will also be a solid foundation for us to build an even stronger trading relationship with Switzerland as we leave the EU."

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

That has not been my experience when i have travelled outside the EU. Customs have this fairly slick and effective. Step back and take an honest look at what you are saying. 10 mins each?? x 300 people on plane = 3000mins / 60 = 50 hours = project fear

Is there a reason that you are assuming that there would only be one person maning the custioms checkpoint in busy port/airport?

tuxy

Great the UK now have the exact same deal as they had while in the EU with Switzerland and Faore Islands!

Shame about Japan and South Korea who are much bigger markets. The meanies are pushing for extra concessions.
Strange how bigger trading blocks seem to push smaller ones around.....

Podge_irl

downcow wrote: »

Yeah thats much more realistic

500 officials was chosen as a deliberately ludicrous number and it still wasn't enough for the actual throughput of Heathrow.

downcow

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

May I ask a personal question or 2....no offence....


How do you think things will pan out on 29 March???


How would you personally like it to work out???

I think the backstop will be softened allowing deal to go through

I like to see EU Ire & UK to stop all the nonsense and make the thing work and stop worrying that if UK ends up happy then others will leave

I have friends involved in GAA and if i can use it as a metaphor. For years GAA made life difficult for young people who wanted to play soccer or rugby on a Saturday. This was no doubt from a place of insecurity. I believe that has now transformed and large numbers of young people are choosing gaa over other sports. Create a easy to leave option in EU and maybe the countries will all want to stay - but if they choose to go then that is their choice and dobn't stand in their way

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

A wee bit of good news From the BBC - just 69 to go lol

The UK and Switzerland have signed a deal to continue trading after Brexit as they did before it.

The "continuity agreement" - based on the EU's existing free trade deal with Switzerland - was agreed in December but ratified on Monday.

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said the deal would "continue the preferential trade that we have".

The UK is seeking to replicate about 40 EU free trade agreements, covering more than 70 countries.

Around £32bn of trade is done between the UK and Switzerland each year, with 15,000 British exporters trading with the country.

Mr Fox said: "Switzerland is one of the most valuable trading partners that we are seeking continuity for. This is of huge economic importance to UK businesses.

"Not only will this help to support jobs throughout the UK but it will also be a solid foundation for us to build an even stronger trading relationship with Switzerland as we leave the EU."

So managing to stand still is good news now? Brexit is really such a great idea.

First Up

downcow wrote:

The UK and Switzerland have signed a deal to continue trading after Brexit as they did before it.

That's great - getting back what they already had as an EU member.

Only problem is they now have to get across the EU to get to the Swiss border.

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

I think the backstop will be softened allowing deal to go through

In what sustainable way could it be softened that would ensure the integrity of the two separate trading areas without compromising peace?

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

A wee bit of good news From the BBC - just 69 to go lol

The UK and Switzerland have signed a deal to continue trading after Brexit as they did before it.

The "continuity agreement" - based on the EU's existing free trade deal with Switzerland - was agreed in December but ratified on Monday.

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said the deal would "continue the preferential trade that we have".

The UK is seeking to replicate about 40 EU free trade agreements, covering more than 70 countries.

Around £32bn of trade is done between the UK and Switzerland each year, with 15,000 British exporters trading with the country.

Mr Fox said: "Switzerland is one of the most valuable trading partners that we are seeking continuity for. This is of huge economic importance to UK businesses.

"Not only will this help to support jobs throughout the UK but it will also be a solid foundation for us to build an even stronger trading relationship with Switzerland as we leave the EU."

wow getting the exact same deal as is available to all EU members is so amazing

definitely worth all this Brexit business

real winner stuff :rolleyes:

MrMusician18

lawred2 wrote: »

wow getting the exact same deal as is available to all EU members is so amazing

definitely worth all this Brexit business

real winner stuff :rolleyes:

2 down, 38 to go?

Igotadose

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Their Service level is to get Trucks through in 15 minutes , assuming they are signed up to the "fast track" processes.

And again , that's with NAFTA , at a Road crossing.

Having done the Blaine crossing a few times, I strongly doubt their real-time data Of course, I was doing this typically in 'tourist season' and it's a very busy crossing, but it was *never* 15 minutes for me in my car or the nearby trucks.

There was indeed an 'express lane' for automobiles where you had a tag that let you zip through, not sure what was involved but guess is that if you lived in one country and regularly commuted (job?) you could get one.

And if there was ever some delay - accident, crime, forget it. Hours. The delays were massive.

Plus the US/Canada crossings were few and far apart, unlike here.

Any border control on this Island will just be a disaster, electronic, unicorn magic or whatever. It's always a queuing problem, any hiccups, huge delays. The roads are not nearly as big as the ones that cross from WA state to Canada, either (M1's a middle-sized highway by modern US standards, what is it, maybe 4 lanes each way as it enters NI, maybe 3? That'll easily clog).

And all that for what again? For some benefit accrued 50 years from now, per Rees-Mogg? To provide large amounts of jobs for UK civil servants renegotiating existing agreements? To weaken the UK? Madness.

J Mysterio

downcow wrote: »

Excellent video.
Of course it will not be a surprise to you that I would like us to land in something like Canada plus. What I find frustrating is that the EU, for whatever reason, do not want to facilitate. The GFA/peace stuff is utter nonsense. Their interest is £s. I am still confident they will not push the EU and the UK over the edge, and Ireland needs to realise we will all be landing on top of them as they are going to take the worst pain.
Is there a reason why Ireland will not allow EU to negotiate a Canada plus type arrangement.
I regard myself as moderate, but I would absolutely go WTO rather than consider a fool (predictive text can be Freudian sometimes LOL, I considered correcting this to what I meant i.e. full, but thought I would just leave it as it may be an appropriate slip), indefinite, backstop.
We have interesting days ahead. Fair play to Ireland, they have been uncompromising to this point, but I am confident Italy, Germany, etc will begin to lean on them shortly

Seriously? Where would you start with this? That is an absolutely diabolical contribution.

F- and I regret to inform you that you cannot proceed and you must retake the Brexit for Beginners course in it's entirety.

I recall you asking 'what are May's red lines?' just the other week and we have now progressed as far as that abomination of a comment.

Please consider your posts more deeply and have some respect for the posters here. This must be wilful ignorance as there is almost no way that someone could have such an amazingly poor ability to receive and process information as you are demonstrating.

bobmalooka

lawred2 wrote: »

downcow wrote: »

A wee bit of good news From the BBC - just 69 to go lol

The UK and Switzerland have signed a deal to continue trading after Brexit as they did before it.

The "continuity agreement" - based on the EU's existing free trade deal with Switzerland - was agreed in December but ratified on Monday.

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said the deal would "continue the preferential trade that we have".

The UK is seeking to replicate about 40 EU free trade agreements, covering more than 70 countries.

Around £32bn of trade is done between the UK and Switzerland each year, with 15,000 British exporters trading with the country.

Mr Fox said: "Switzerland is one of the most valuable trading partners that we are seeking continuity for. This is of huge economic importance to UK businesses.

"Not only will this help to support jobs throughout the UK but it will also be a solid foundation for us to build an even stronger trading relationship with Switzerland as we leave the EU."

wow getting the exact same deal as is available to all EU members is so amazing

definitely worth all this Brexit business

real winner stuff :rolleyes:

And that’s ignoring that chunks of that trade are contingent on their trade circumstances with the EU staying the same/not worsening.

tuxy

Igotadose wrote: »

M1's a middle-sized highway by modern US standards, what is it, maybe 4 lanes each way as it enters NI, maybe 3? That'll easily clog.

It's a classed as a dual carriage way with 2 lanes each way at the point where it crosses the border. There's a point where one side of the carriageway crosses into the UK and back again then a little further on it crosses fully.

Strazdas

downcow wrote: »

I think the backstop will be softened allowing deal to go through

I like to see EU Ire & UK to stop all the nonsense and make the thing work and stop worrying that if UK ends up happy then others will leave

I have friends involved in GAA and if i can use it as a metaphor. For years GAA made life difficult for young people who wanted to play soccer or rugby on a Saturday. This was no doubt from a place of insecurity. I believe that has now transformed and large numbers of young people are choosing gaa over other sports. Create a easy to leave option in EU and maybe the countries will all want to stay - but if they choose to go then that is their choice and dobn't stand in their way

I don't believe for a moment that the backstop is the only thing that caused 230 MPs to vote against the deal. Those who voted against it ranged from pro-Remainers to No Dealers.

Bit cynical

nemefuria wrote: »

But what I'm wondering, and haven't heard a lot about, are the EU's argument that it doesn't want an indefinite backstop. Does the backstop have some negative ramifications for the EU that they'd like to see it gone as much as the UK? Are there any economic incentives for the EU to keep the backstop? I think the answers would go a long way to highlight how the backstop is a "concession" by the EU.

In fairness I don't think anyone is arguing that the backstop is a concession. It is something that TM agreed to in principle back in December 2017 pending parliamentary approval but I don't think it was ever something that the UK was pushing for and the EU conceded. It may be that people think that the "UK wide" backstop is the concession.

Inquitus

Strazdas wrote: »

I don't believe for a moment that the backstop is the only thing that caused 230 MPs to vote against the deal. Those who voted against it ranged from pro-Remainers to No Dealers.

Downcow is slightly delusional, despite having the reason the backstop is essential and cannot be time limited, or left unilaterally, explained to him many many times, he still thinks it's going to change and its our moral obligation to do so.

downcow

Inquitus wrote: »

Downcow is slightly delusional, despite having the reason the backstop is essential and cannot be time limited, or left unilaterally, explained to him many many times, he still thinks it's going to change and its our moral obligation to do so.

I honestly believe it is either soften the backstop or no deal.
We’ll revisit this in due course and one of us will be 100% wrong

downcow

Inquitus wrote: »

Downcow is slightly delusional, despite having the reason the backstop is essential and cannot be time limited, or left unilaterally, explained to him many many times, he still thinks it's going to change and its our moral obligation to do so.

You are aware the backstop has not yet been agreed between Eu and WM. aren’t you??

Inquitus

downcow wrote: »

I honestly believe it is either soften the backstop or no deal.
We’ll revisit this in due course and one of us will be 100% wrong

The backstop can't be softened, so if the UK can't agree what it wants to do within that limitation, and they have had 2 years to do so, then it will be no deal.

bobmalooka

downcow wrote: »

Inquitus wrote: »

Downcow is slightly delusional, despite having the reason the backstop is essential and cannot be time limited, or left unilaterally, explained to him many many times, he still thinks it's going to change and its our moral obligation to do so.

I honestly believe it is either soften the backstop or no deal.
We’ll revisit this in due course and one of us will be 100% wrong

And a “softened” backstop, of course, isn’t a backstop.
If they really are the only 2 choices then no deal is inevitable.

The question then is how much hardship could England endure before they look to negotiate again

Inquitus

Definition of Insanity........

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/11/may-to-ask-mps-for-further-fortnights-grace-in-brexit-talks

Theresa May hopes to convince the House of Commons on Tuesday to give her another fortnight’s grace to keep pushing for changes to the Irish backstop – despite the insistence of Michel Barnier that it is Britain that must compromise.

tuxy

Her plan has to be to run down the clock and hope the MPs panic and back her deal. I really can't see any other logic behind it, very dangerous game to play.

BlitzKrieg

tuxy wrote: »

Her plan has to be to run down the clock and hope the MPs panic and back her deal. I really can't see any other logic behind it, very dangerous game to play.

problem is those opposing her are playing the same game, most of the backbench tories dont give a damn about northern ireland, they want a hard brexit and northern ireland and the DUP is an easy scapegoat for them to force it through and have something as a cover story for their electorate on why they are intentionally trying to screw them over.