Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

downcow · 11-02-2019 8:07pm

Gintonious wrote: »

With all the acronyms flying about the place, I found this video a big help.

Also shows the complexities of the trade agreements that the UK will have to wrestle with, and also just how far behind they are on even starting that!

Excellent video.
Of course it will not be a surprise to you that I would like us to land in something like Canada plus. What I find frustrating is that the EU, for whatever reason, do not want to facilitate. The GFA/peace stuff is utter nonsense. Their interest is £s. I am still confident they will not push the EU and the UK over the edge, and Ireland needs to realise we will all be landing on top of them as they are going to take the worst pain.
Is there a reason why Ireland will not allow EU to negotiate a Canada plus type arrangement.
I regard myself as moderate, but I would absolutely go WTO rather than consider a fool (predictive text can be Freudian sometimes LOL, I considered correcting this to what I meant i.e. full, but thought I would just leave it as it may be an appropriate slip), indefinite, backstop.
We have interesting days ahead. Fair play to Ireland, they have been uncompromising to this point, but I am confident Italy, Germany, etc will begin to lean on them shortly

Podge_irl · 11-02-2019 8:10pm

Either Theresa May was lying about her commitment to no hard border or there is a massive misunderstanding about what that entails. Words are irrelevant - the UK is talking about not wanting a hard border and completely refusing to commit to that in deeds.

View · 11-02-2019 8:14pm

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not much evidence of its use by the people of Ireland. And it ceased to be used by the government in 1800.

When Henry VIII had himself declared "King of Ireland" in 1541, he adpoted a gold harp on a blue background as the coat of arms of the new Kingdom. No such symbol had ever been used, so far as we know, by any High King ruling or claiming to rule Ireland, or by any regional king. The previous English administration in Ireland (which, as we know, most of the time rules only small parts of Ireland), the "Lordship of Ireland" didn't use the harp either; its coat of arms was three crowns on a blue field. Some coinage issued in Ireland by King John did contain a triangular device which may, or may not, have been a crude represenation of a harp, but that's the closest we come to any official use of the harp as a national emblem prior to 1541.

Thereafter the English administration in Ireland pretty consistently used a gold harp on a blue field as its emblem up until the Act of Union in 1800. However there's not much evidence that this enjoyed any popular support or usage. Irish merchant shipping (of which there was never very much) flew the British red ensign. A gold harp on a green background is said to have been used by some of the French military detachments associated with the Wild Geese, and was certainly adopted by the United Irishmen, and later used by the Fenians. The St. Patrick's Cross - a red diagonal cross on a white background - turns up as a patriotic emblem in the eighteenth century, particularly associated with the Volunteer movement and Grattan's Parliament (and this, of course, is eventually incorporated into the Union Jack). And of course in the nineteenth century we have a bewildering variaty of Starry Ploughs, Sunbursts, Shamrocks, etc, in use alongside the green harp banner. The green harp banner wasn't so much a national symbol as a nationalist symbol.

You are applying modern concepts to history which is a mistake.

To the people of the day, which is what counts as it was them, not you or I that lived then, the blue flag was the flag in use throughout Ireland in an official (or any unofficial) capacity.

The blue flag was the one that they would have encountered and lived under and that they didn’t dispute as being the flag of Ireland (since arguing with the decisions of the powers that be back then in any country was a sure fire way to end up in serious if not fatal trouble).

Flags in widespread use by the people is largely a phenomenon from the 19th Century onwards when international matches and competitions started happening.

tuxy · 11-02-2019 8:19pm

downcow wrote: »

Excellent video.
Of course it will not be a surprise to you that I would like us to land in something like Canada plus.

The issue with Canada plus is that the ERG members of the Tory party say the border could be checked by invisible technology. When asked to go into detail or give examples of where this so called new technology is used anywhere else in the world they refuse. Most sensible people know that this technology does not exist yet and if it did they would have no problem with the backstop in Teresa Mays deal because it would prevent the backstop from ever coming into place.

Quin_Dub · 11-02-2019 8:20pm

downcow wrote: »

I have never crossed between ROI and France but I have crossed many times between England and France. When I get the ferry Dover Calais, is this what you guys are referring to as a hard border? I am guessing that it is the same between Ireland and France and this is where my confusion is. It seems you are happy to have checks as you head into France but not as you head into the UK. Is this correct or am I misreading the situation?

Think of it this way..

Today at Airports you have those 3 options as you exit the baggage hall.

EU Passport holders , Nothing to declare , Something to declare.

Door number 1 - EU passport holders , it's just a door , out you go , maybe 1 in 50 get stopped (unless you're a student type flying back from Amsterdam and you might get an extra look from customs

) .

Time taken for almost everybody - 10 seconds

Door Number 2 - Nothing to Declare again it's mostly just a door , maybe 1 in 20 get stopped for review.

Time taken for almost everybody - 10 seconds

Door number 3 - Something to declare everybody gets stopped and gets asked a bunch of questions to make declarations and some will get the extra treatment of opening your luggage etc. as they do for those selected in the 1st two options.

Time taken for almost everybody - minimum 5 minutes.

With a Hard Border - Everybody has to go through Door number 3 and everybody gets their bag checked too.

Time taken for almost everybody - minimum 10 minutes (from the time you get to the top of the Queue and are actually being dealt with by the Customs staff) , the queue could be hours depending on how busy the place is.

Now , apply the same scale to every car, van and truck coming off Ferries as they are all forced through option 3.

Utter shambles each and every day for each and every Ferry and Aircraft.

That's what people mean by "Hard Border".

bob mcbob · 11-02-2019 8:23pm

You could not make this stuff up.

A month and a half from Brexit, 90% of UK international hauliers do not have a permit to operate in the EU.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-british-lorry-drivers-hgv-eu-permits-barred-from-entry-imports-exports-a8772456.html

Still it should solve the roadblock problems at Dover as they will have no reason to go there.

4068ac1elhodqr · 11-02-2019 8:25pm

Could be media hype but there is reports that Sweden currently plenty of border checks.

When announcing the measures on Thursday, he* said: "Sweden is one of a handful of countries that continue to have internal border controls due to lack of border controls at the Schengen's external borders.”

Checks on car and train traffic were implemented at the Öresund Bridge, as well as at ports in Varberg, Gothenburg, Malmö, Helsingborg and Trelleborg. Another 12 sites, including airports, were added to the check areas last summer. The border checks will continue for another three months until May 11.

In a statement, the government (*Interior minister: Mikael Damberg) said: "The decision is based on the government's assessment that there is a threat to public order and internal security in Sweden.”

Fair enough Sweden is special case, but could be trend in future for all EU countries to better secure their own internal borders, if external borders are so weak.

tuxy · 11-02-2019 8:25pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's what people mean by "Hard Border".

And on this Island it would mean customs buildings with officers stopping trucks and cars to check travel documents and goods.
This infrastructure would likely become a target for dissident republicans.
Both sides say they don't want to do this and it's true but how else do they protect their markets?
Ireland must protect the EU single market and the UK must protect its market or else no one will make trade agreements with them , why would they if they could just smuggle everything over the Irish border.

downcow · 11-02-2019 8:27pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Think of it this way..

Today at Airports you have those 3 options as you exit the baggage hall.

EU Passport holders , Nothing to declare , Something to declare.

Door number 1 - EU passport holders , it's just a door , out you go , maybe 1 in 50 get stopped (unless you're a student type flying back from Amsterdam and you might get an extra look from customs ) .

Time taken for almost everybody - 10 seconds

Door Number 2 - Nothing to Declare again it's mostly just a door , maybe 1 in 20 get stopped for review.

Time taken for almost everybody - 10 seconds

Door number 3 - Something to declare everybody gets stopped and gets asked a bunch of questions to make declarations and some will get the extra treatment of opening your luggage etc. as they do for those selected in the 1st two options.

Time taken for almost everybody - minimum 5 minutes.

With a Hard Border - Everybody has to go through Door number 3 and everybody gets their bag checked too.

Time taken for almost everybody - minimum 10 minutes (from the time you get to the top of the Queue and are actually being dealt with by the Customs staff) , the queue could be hours depending on how busy the place is.

Now , apply the same scale to every car, van and truck coming off Ferries as they are all forced through option 3.

Utter shambles each and every day for each and every Ferry and Aircraft.

That's what people mean by "Hard Border".

That has not been my experience when i have travelled outside the EU. Customs have this fairly slick and effective. Step back and take an honest look at what you are saying. 10 mins each?? x 300 people on plane = 3000mins / 60 = 50 hours = project fear

Thargor · 11-02-2019 8:29pm

Hey guys is Uk-France a hard border?

What do Theresa Mays red Lines mean?

Why is de EU bullying us?

I just dont understand, please spend 20 pages of de thread explayning it to me again.

downcow · 11-02-2019 8:31pm

tuxy wrote: »

The issue with Canada plus is that the ERG members of the Tory party say the border could be checked by invisible technology. When asked to go into detail or give examples of where this so called new technology is used anywhere else in the world they refuse. Most sensible people know that this technology does not exist yet and if it did they would have no problem with the backstop in Teresa Mays deal because it would prevent the backstop from ever coming into place.

Do you really feel that a cooperating EU & UK could not sort this out. After all you tell us the world needs EU trade so it should be easy. Or could it be that EU doesn't want a smooth transition

gooch2k9 · 11-02-2019 8:31pm

downcow wrote: »

That has not been my experience when i have travelled outside the EU. Customs have this fairly slick and effective. Step back and take an honest look at what you are saying. 10 mins each?? x 300 people on plane = 3000mins / 60 = 50 hours = project fear

You don't wait for the person ahead to be through before you start queueing...

I see David Davis is peddling the devalued sterling would be great for exports line again today. That went so well from June 2016.

downcow · 11-02-2019 8:35pm

Thargor wrote: »

Hey guys is Uk-France a hard border?

What do Theresa Mays red Lines mean?

Why is de EU bullying us?

I just dont understand, please spend 20 pages of de thread explayning it to me again.

I know it suits you to avoid facts but it was a legitimate question - Do you regard passport checks as hard border? You will notice i was respectful to those who answered and completely accepted their answer and indeed appreciated it.

Podge_irl · 11-02-2019 8:38pm

downcow wrote: »

That has not been my experience when i have travelled outside the EU. Customs have this fairly slick and effective. Step back and take an honest look at what you are saying. 10 mins each?? x 300 people on plane = 3000mins / 60 = 50 hours = project fear

If it took 2 minutes to get through a customs check then you could have 500 customs officials you could deal with 30 planes an hour. A plane lands at Heathrow about every 90 seconds.

Quin_Dub · 11-02-2019 8:38pm

downcow wrote: »

That has not been my experience when i have travelled outside the EU. Customs have this fairly slick and effective. Step back and take an honest look at what you are saying. 10 mins each?? x 300 people on plane = 3000mins / 60 = 50 hours = project fear

Not quite... That's only true if there's only 1 gate operating and it's a single queue..

For example - Try landing in an airport like Houston or Dallas in the US where there are maybe 20 customs gates in the arrival hall.

On a good day, when you land in there around the same time as a few other flights.. Will take you a minimum of an hour to clear customs.

Here's another example for you -

Commercial Vehicle Travel Time and Delay at U.S. Border Crossings - and this is with NAFTA in place..

Crossing Baseline Time Average Time 95th Percentile Time
All Outbound Crossings NA 14.2 37.4
All Inbound Crossings NA 26.8 70.1
All Northern Outbound Crossings NA 12.6 34.3
All Northern Inbound Crossings NA 24.1 70.3
All Southern Outbound Crossings NA 17.2 45.2
All Southern Inbound Crossings NA 33.8 64.9
Ambassador Bridge Outbound 5.7 8.8 13.7
Ambassador Bridge Inbound 12.9 20.4 33.9
Blaine Outbound 4.8 21.5 35.3
Blaine Inbound 8.1 17.3 35.6
Blue Water Bridge Outbound 5.0 6.2 9.1
Blue Water Bridge Inbound 11.1 34.2 80.3
Peace Bridge Outbound 9.0 21.7 38.0
Peace Bridge Inbound 8.3 23.3 83.4
El Paso Outbound 9.0 13.2 34.0
El Paso Inbound 7.6 37.2 77.4
Laredo Outbound 1.8 17.2 45.0
Laredo Inbound 12.2 31.2 54.9
Otay Mesa Outbound 9.5 19.1 36.9
Otay Mesa Inbound 6.4 35.0 64.3

~30 minutes for Inbound crossings , with 95% taking less than 70 minutes per Truck!

Now , take away a free-trade deal and that number only goes up , it certainly doesn't get better..

And that is for a Road crossing , add the complexity and real-estate requirements that a Sea Crossing brings to the party and you begin to see the scale of the problems that UK trade is facing in a No-Deal scenario.

EDIT - Just spotted that the above info is from a few years back

This link is the Real-time data showing the current performance at the US borders..

Their Service level is to get Trucks through in 15 minutes , assuming they are signed up to the "fast track" processes.

And again , that's with NAFTA , at a Road crossing.

Call me Al · 11-02-2019 8:39pm

downcow wrote: »

The GFA/peace stuff is utter nonsense. Their interest is £s. I am still confident they will not push the EU and the UK over the edge, and Ireland needs to realise we will all be landing on top of them as they are going to take the worst pain.
.......
I regard myself as moderate, but I would absolutely go WTO rather than consider a fool (predictive text can be Freudian sometimes LOL, I considered correcting this to what I meant i.e. full, but thought I would just leave it as it may be an appropriate slip), indefinite, backstop.
We have interesting days ahead. Fair play to Ireland, they have been uncompromising to this point, but I am confident Italy, Germany, etc will begin to lean on them shortly

I have asked you this before, and I will ask you again"

".... you think the EU will sacrifice Ireland, but don't believe that the same logic will apply to the relationship between Westminster and N.I.? In fact I think the urgency of the situation for Westminster will soon have the cracks showing."

I think you are being extremely naive if you don't see whose back against the wall at the moment.
Hint: considering Philip Hammond has been telling UKs largest industries that the UK government won't be leaving with no deal Brexit it isn't the EU's or Ireland's.

prawnsambo · 11-02-2019 8:39pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

You could not make this stuff up.

A month and a half from Brexit, 90% of UK international hauliers do not have a permit to operate in the EU.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-british-lorry-drivers-hgv-eu-permits-barred-from-entry-imports-exports-a8772456.html

Still it should solve the roadblock problems at Dover as they will have no reason to go there.

There won't be any more than the 984 that were issued. This is an extra-EU scheme under the auspices of the OECD. It's primarily to limit air pollution by trucks. If you think that's bad, NI got only 60.

First Up · 11-02-2019 8:42pm

downcow wrote:

That has not been my experience when i have travelled outside the EU. Customs have this fairly slick and effective. Step back and take an honest look at what you are saying. 10 mins each?? x 300 people on plane = 3000mins / 60 = 50 hours = project fear

Were you driving an articulated truck?

downcow · 11-02-2019 8:46pm

Call me Al wrote: »

I have asked you this before, and I will ask you again"

".... you think the EU will sacrifice Ireland, but don't believe that the same logic will apply to the relationship between Westminster and N.I.? In fact I think the urgency of the situation for Westminster will soon have the cracks showing."

I think you are being extremely naive if you don't see whose back against the wall at the moment.
Hint: considering Philip Hammond has been telling UKs largest industries that the UK government won't be leaving with no deal Brexit it isn't the EU's or Ireland's.

I have never said GB won't sacrifice NI. I lived through the Anglo-Irish agreement stuff so I don't seem to have the same illusions as you. You seem to think that the 500m EU residents regard protecting the irish border as a priority - nonsense. I am under no illusions, NI has been through tough times and will do again

bob mcbob · 11-02-2019 8:47pm

downcow wrote: »

Do you really feel that a cooperating EU & UK could not sort this out. After all you tell us the world needs EU trade so it should be easy. Or could it be that EU doesn't want a smooth transition

Ok, lets put it this way -

There are currently EU wide standards so if you want to export farm produce to ROI, it is fine.

After Brexit, standards may not be the same between the UK and ROI. Taking back control and all that.

So how will the EU know that the farm produce that you are trying to export to ROI meets EU standards?

Should they check all your produce? What technology can do this?

Will they audit your farm to ensure you comply with the EU standards.

If you want to export produce to ROI you could be in a position where you have to deal with 2 sets of paperwork (EU & GB).

Capt'n Midnight · 11-02-2019 8:50pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

You could not make this stuff up.

A month and a half from Brexit, 90% of UK international hauliers do not have a permit to operate in the EU.

In Northern Ireland it's 60-70

Not 60%-70%, just 60-70 permits.

There's 13,000 crossing into the EU every day from NI.

downcow · 11-02-2019 8:51pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

If it took 2 minutes to get through a customs check then you could have 500 customs officials you could deal with 30 planes an hour. A plane lands at Heathrow about every 90 seconds.

Yeah thats much more realistic

Quin_Dub · 11-02-2019 8:51pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

Ok, lets put it this way -

There are currently EU wide standards so if you want to export farm produce to ROI, it is fine.

After Brexit, standards may not be the same between the UK and ROI. Taking back control and all that.

So how will the EU know that the farm produce that you are trying to export to ROI meets EU standards?

Should they check all your produce? What technology can do this?

Will they audit your farm to ensure you comply with the EU standards.

If you want to export produce to ROI you could be in a position where you have to deal with 2 sets of paperwork (EU & GB).

Exactly - Maybe and it's a very very big maybe , X-Ray type technology might be able to scan a refrigerated truck and say "Yes - That truck is full of sides of Beef" , but there is no technology in existence that could scan that truck and say "that Beef is Hormone and GMO Free"

prawnsambo · 11-02-2019 8:52pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

Ok, lets put it this way -

There are currently EU wide standards so if you want to export farm produce to ROI, it is fine.

After Brexit, standards may not be the same between the UK and ROI. Taking back control and all that.

So how will the EU know that the farm produce that you are trying to export to ROI meets EU standards?

Should they check all your produce? What technology can do this?

Will they audit your farm to ensure you comply with the EU standards.

If you want to export produce to ROI you could be in a position where you have to deal with 2 sets of paperwork (EU & GB).

For the purpose of clarity, that's the system that all trade agreements with the EU encompass. In other words, if you want to sell food into the EU under a FTA, you HAVE to abide by EU standards and submit to checks. There is reciprocity, but in general, EU food standards trump all others. The few exceptions are things like outbreaks of BSE or foot and mouth where trade partners can refuse to accept produce.

So that's the world the brexiters think is 'free'.

Imreoir2 · 11-02-2019 8:56pm

nemefuria wrote: »

A lot is hinged on this backstop issue and I just can't envision any technology solutions, even future ones, that would bring about a frictionless border between two different trading blocs with a land border, i.e. while you can do away with a lot of infrastructure for law-abiding entities such as electronic declarations and checks away from border, physical border checks are unavoidable to address dishonest activities.

But what I'm wondering, and haven't heard a lot about, are the EU's argument that it doesn't want an indefinite backstop. Does the backstop have some negative ramifications for the EU that they'd like to see it gone as much as the UK? Are there any economic incentives for the EU to keep the backstop? I think the answers would go a long way to highlight how the backstop is a "concession" by the EU.

There are several reasons, one off the top of my head being that it adds an additional level of complexity to future EU trade deals. Do EU trade deals cover just the EU 27, or EU + NI, or EU + the UK? Given that the backstop could end at any point then the exact nature of what the EU has to offer other partners in terms or market size and access is in limbo.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-02-2019 8:57pm

Hurrache wrote: »

twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1094870010957316096[

An interesting thread on the trade benefits of Brexit, authors tongue firmly in cheek. It's worth a read, and this interesting issue popped up in it. When the UK come
to try get a deal with Mercosur, they'll be bent over by Argentina.
twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1094877007643623425

Oh boy 40% of the growth was to have been in China and India ?
Take a wild guess which non-EU countries have the most migration to the UK ?

15. Which means that the UK are setting future trade policy based on the idea that two countries will drive 40% of growth over an extended period of time, which is not only tentative, it’s wrong.
...
20. As a smaller market, the UK will not only be negotiating all its future trade agreements from a weaker position, but countries with existing deals may want better terms as part of agreeing continuation.
...
27. This is partly because 70% of the Falkland’s trade is dependent on the EU. Calamari is not only the Falkland’s biggest export, it is also tariff sensitive.

Falklands ? Brexit is an Omnishambles.

Call me Al · 11-02-2019 8:57pm

downcow wrote: »

I have never said GB won't sacrifice NI. I lived through the Anglo-Irish agreement stuff so I don't seem to have the same illusions as you. You seem to think that the 500m EU residents regard protecting the irish border as a priority - nonsense. I am under no illusions, NI has been through tough times and will do again

Thanks for clarifying that because you definitely appear to believe that the EU are going to pull the rug out from under Ireland in order to prevent that.
In these negotiations it isn't an Irish border, it is an EU land border, just the same as any other land border we have in the EU. I expect this border will be protected the same as any of these others, so these 500 million citizens don't have to worry about it.

Quin_Dub · 11-02-2019 9:00pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

If it took 2 minutes to get through a customs check then you could have 500 customs officials you could deal with 30 planes an hour. A plane lands at Heathrow about every 90 seconds.

downcow wrote: »

Yeah thats much more realistic

OK , so next question - where do those 500 customs agents do their work ??

Terminal 5 , the newest and biggest Terminal in Heathrow has about 20 or 25 customs gates.

The current pathway for Irish air passengers in T5 has 6.

So , No-Deal Brexit , March 30th .

Heathrow grinds to a halt as everyone gets delayed at the customs gates and are late getting to baggage claim and the belts all back up..

And that's before they get to those "Something to declare" gates!

prawnsambo · 11-02-2019 9:03pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Oh boy 40% of the growth was to have been in China and India ?
Take a wild guess which non-EU countries have the most migration to the UK ?

Falklands ? Brexit is an Omnishambles.

Gas. I predicted that there would be a price to pay when Argentina were first in the queue to object to the EU/UK schedule split at the WTO. It's like asset stripping, but on a global scale.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-02-2019 9:04pm

The border will be in the Irish sea in the end.

Even with the backstop NI remains in single market, still means border in the Irish sea.

I suspect both Labour and Tories will throw the DUP under the bus in the end.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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