Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

woohoo!!!

lawred2 wrote: »

Anthracite wrote: »

The backstop is the compromise. They worked on this for years. Were you elsewhere, perhaps?

'Compromise' to the reregs really means facilitating the UK getting all the benefits for none of the costs or responsibilities..

Anything short of that is intransigence and bullying

Yes, the expectation is that the EU will act against the EUs interests, screw over a member and no doubt concede on other aspects of the WA. This belief has its origins in the politics of the early twentieth century whereby the great powers decided on the policies for Europe and everyone else meekly followed.

It truly takes a special kind of haughty exceptionalism aka deluded unicorn chasing freaks, to not only swallow this but to also continuously in the face of strong evidence that this is simply foolish beyond reason. The bubbles that are going to be burst will be exceptional.

prawnsambo

alloywheel wrote: »

It is interesting to see sterling is more or less the same as it was a few years ago.

n.b The British were proved correct in keeping their own currency, not adapting the euro at the time. That way they did not suffered the same banking bust and property crash as we did in 2007 / 2008. And they were able to help bail us out.

They bailed out RBS to the tune of £120 billion. Puts our bail out in the ha'penniy place. And FYI, the value of sterling has never recovered from the brexit vote. A crash out would drop it below the euro.

4068ac1elhodqr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

She'll probably resign of her own accord soon after Brexit is completed, in any event.

Agree, and the day after Bozo (Boris) will take over, but drop all hot launch codes in the local petrol station's bin, when stopping off to repair a puncture.

Not to worry, Dave C is keeping a deck chair space warm for her over in Barbados or somewhere. Then there's a book deal, a speaking circuit and likely a few extra fancey letters to add on to the envelope stationery stamper.

alloywheel

prawnsambo wrote: »

They bailed out RBS to the tune of £120 billion. Puts our bail out in the ha'penniy place. And FYI, the value of sterling has never recovered from the brexit vote. A crash out would drop it below the euro.

Our bailouts were much bigger here, considering the size of the UK population relative to ours.

Interesting to see sterling is about the same (or even stronger) as it was ten years ago, I remember buying it then and a euro bought 89 pence sterling, now the euro will only buy 88 pence sterling.

Anthracite

alloywheel wrote: »

Our bailouts were much bigger here, considering the size of the UK population relative to ours.

Interesting to see sterling is about the same (or even stronger) as it was ten years ago, I remember buying it then and a euro bought 89 pence sterling, now the euro will only buy 88 pence sterling.

Interesting that if you scan around you can find a period in the last half century when the UK's prospects were considered as poor as they are today.

Which is what you did.

alloywheel

I did not scan anything, you do not have to go back a full 10 years to see when sterling was weaker than it is now.
Sterling is holding up well is the point I was making. I remember going over there for a weekend some time ago, sterling has strengthened since then.

alloywheel

fash wrote: »

I agree with you comrade, we must crush the evil British regime for the good of humanity - well said.

I do not think crushing our big neighbours is good for us, or for anyone.

UsedToWait

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Very interesting piece by Newsnight's Nick Watt from Dublin last night. He interviewed all of the opposition leaders bar Mary Lou, i.e. Martin, Shortall and Howlin. The consensus on Brexit was remarkable and each leader came across as measured and thoughtful. Watt then finished with Bobby McDonagh, an ex-ambassador to the UK. In the context of Ireland becoming more European, and further embedded in the EU having lived in Britain's shadow for centuries, he quoted from Emmet's speech from the Dock prior to being executed:

"When my country takes her place among the nations of the earth, then and not till then, let my epitaph be written."

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Right, so the UK joining the EU of its own free will and prospering socially & economically for 40 years is directly comparable to Ireland being colonised and brutalised by the British Empire for hundreds of years.

Lovely.

As an aside, with thanks to the Prof, I hadn't read the text of Emmet's Speech from the Dock before - thought this was apt...

I am charged with being an emissary of France. An emissary of France! And for what end? It is alleged that I wish to sell the independence of my country; and for what end? Was this the object of my ambition? And is this the mode by which a tribunal of justice reconciles contradictions? No; I am no emissary.
My ambition was to hold a place among the deliverers of my country—not in power, not in profit, but in the glory of the achievement. Sell my country’s independence to France! And for what? A change of masters? ...


...Were the French to assume any authority inconsistent with the purest independence, it would be the signal for their destruction. We sought their aid— and we sought it as we had assurances we should obtain it—as auxiliaries in war, and allies in peace. Were the French to come as invaders or enemies, uninvited by the wishes of the people, I should oppose them to the utmost of my strength...


...I wished to procure for my country the guarantee which Washington procured for America—to procure an aid which, by its example, would be as important as its valour; disciplined, gallant, pregnant with science and experience; that of allies who would perceive the good, and polish the rough points of our character. They would come to us as strangers, and leave us as friends, after sharing in our perils, and elevating our destiny. These were my objects; not to receive new taskmasters, but to expel old tyrants. And it was for these ends I sought aid from France; because France, even as an enemy, could not be more implacable than the enemy already in the bosom of my country.

Enzokk

alloywheel wrote: »

So we have lost power and independence to Brussels. The EU will bully us too.

Have you ever thought what type of trade deals an independent Ireland would have been able to negotiate? With our market of 5 million people? What goods do we sell that is attractive to other countries and would mean we get a good trade deal?

alloywheel

UsedToWait wrote: »

As an aside, with thanks to the Prof, I hadn't read the text of Emmet's Speech from the Dock before - thought this was apt...

And a lot of good France done us since that was written 100 years ago. How many jobs did she give us? How much does it trade with us? Did it appreciate tens of thousands of Irishmen (albeit in British uniforms) helping to rescue it from Nazism? Many paying the ultimate price. Did it contribute as much money in to the EU / EEC as our neighbouring island? No.

prawnsambo

alloywheel wrote: »

I did not scan anything, you do not have to go back a full 10 years to see when sterling was weaker than it is now.
Sterling is holding up well is the point I was making. I remember going over there for a weekend some time ago, sterling has strengthened since then.

It fell like a stone after the brexit vote. It hasn't recovered yet. Comparing it with what it was like after the crash is probably apposite, but the main crash hasn't happened yet.

Borderhopper

Didn't sterlings value collapse midway 2007?

Midlife

alloywheel wrote: »

No compromise from the EU, only gloating to make things as difficult as possible for the UK, who wants its independence. Just as we wanted our independence 100 years ago, I can understand how the UK wants its independence now, plus not having to continue to fund the other 27 as much.

What compromise should they have made? Would you suggest that they listen to May's proposals from the second round of talks (now with only 50 days to go)?

prawnsambo

alloywheel wrote: »

And a lot of good France done us since that was written 100 years ago. How many jobs did she give us? How much does it trade with us? Did it appreciate tens of thousands of Irishmen (albeit in British uniforms) helping to rescue it from Nazism? Many paying the ultimate price. Did it contribute as much money in to the EU / EEC as our neighbouring island? No.

I think you need a history lesson. Robert Emmet was executed in 1803. Over 200 years ago. And of course you're wrong about EU contributions as well. Second highest contributor after Germany and almost 20% more than the UK.

alloywheel

prawnsambo wrote: »

It fell like a stone after the brexit vote. It hasn't recovered yet. Comparing it with what it was like after the crash is probably apposite, but the main crash hasn't happened yet.

Sterling is slightly stronger now than ten years ago, and both the UK and EU were after a bit of a downturn then. The fact sterling has not changed much says a lot, I'm sure the British are glad they kept their currency now, it helped save them before from having as bad a bank crash / property slump as we had.

prawnsambo

alloywheel wrote: »

Sterling is slightly stronger now than ten years ago, and both the UK and EU were after a bit of a downturn then. The fact sterling has not changed much says a lot, I'm sure the British are glad they kept their currency now, it helped save them before from having as bad a bank crash / property slump as we had.

You can't wave your hands and pretend that sterling didn't crash after the brexit vote. All that other nonsense is just white noise to obscure that fact.

Enzokk

alloywheel wrote: »

And a lot of good France done us since that was written 100 years ago. How many jobs did she give us? How much does it trade with us? Did it appreciate tens of thousands of Irishmen (albeit in British uniforms) helping to rescue it from Nazism? Many paying the ultimate price. Did it contribute as much money in to the EU / EEC as our neighbouring island? No.

It really is hard to take a poster seriously when their posts contain information that is easily verifiable and they are not giving a true picture.

For the period from 2007 to 2013 the UK contributed about 78b euro and France 129b euro. The average net contributions for the UK in that period was 4.9b euro and France it was 5.9b euro.

Maybe you are correct but you need to give us the figures. My figures are from Wikipedia but they give the sources where the information is provided from.

Budget of the European Union

Do you have a source for your assertion that the UK is a bigger contributor to the EU than France?

First Up

alloywheel wrote:

And a lot of good France done us since that was written 100 years ago. How many jobs did she give us? How much does it trade with us?

You could look it up.

We export about five and a half billion euro's worth to France and there's 350 French companies with operations in Ireland.

sink

CelticRambler wrote: »

"Project Fear" is predicting that the UK will go into meltdown on the 30th March if there's a no-deal Brexit, and these roaming charges headlines are part of that. As far as the vast majority of the British population is concerned, the UK will not go into meltdown on ND+1. There will be "no change" - there will still be food on the shelves, the trains will still run, schools will be open, ambulances will turn up and take patients to hospital, and few (if any) mobile phone users will pay a penny more for using their phone.

For us on the outside, that is the real danger: Brexiteers bragging that it was all a load of scaremongering, Remainers thinking that things aren't as bad as they feared, and Don'tKnow/PreferNotToAnswers deciding that it all worked out in the end. So none of them will be putting pressure on their MPs to get back to the negotiating table in a hurry. That doesn't mean there aren't problems ahead, but turning a statement of already well-known fact into a screaming headline is not helpful.

In an earlier post, I predicted that it'll be the end of April before the "man in the street" wakes up to the first real inconveniences of Brexit reality; it'll still take time, though, for everyone to feel the pain.

You may be right, if things remain calm and there is no panic.

However I believe that 'Project Fear' may become a self fulfilling prophecy. I believe that there will be panic by a large contingent of the population who will stock up on extra supplies prior to and in the immediate aftermath of D1ND, leading to shortages in supermarkets almost immediately. Think about what happened here before that big snow storm last year.

This will then be widely reported and hyped in the media leading so even more people become convinced that the shortages will continue, in turn leading to even more panic buying in a positive feedback loop. The real problem will only begin when the supermarkets can't get enough supply to restock in sufficient quantities to meet the increased demand and this is when a true national emergency will emerge.

People in large groups are panicky and irrational, particularly when they are already fearful. It won't take much for mob mentality to take over and a queue for food turns into a riot. Which again will get picked up in the press who will always overhype and play on peoples fear leading to another positive feedback loop driving the whole country to the edge of mass hysteria. Remember the riots across England in 2011, the febrile atmosphere caused by a no deal brexit is the perfect kindling for similar mass riots to break out.

All the ingredients are there for widespread civil disorder, it will only take a spark to set it off.

alloywheel

prawnsambo wrote: »

Second highest contributor after Germany and almost 20% more than the UK.

on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/11221427/EU-budget-what-you-need-to-know.html

Fat lot of thanks it got for putting in money, year after year, for 40 years.

alloywheel

First Up wrote: »

You could look it up.

We export about five and a half billion euro's worth to France and there's 350 French companies with operations in Ireland.

Is that all? (I know one of the French companies by the way, he takes a few dozen French tourists here a year on golfing holidays, big deal).

alloywheel

Enzokk wrote: »

Have you ever thought what type of trade deals an independent Ireland would have been able to negotiate?

Are you aware a smaller country such as Singapore is much more successful than Ireland? What sort of trade deals did it negotiate?

Jamiekelly

alloywheel wrote: »

Sterling is slightly stronger now than ten years ago, and both the UK and EU were after a bit of a downturn then. The fact sterling has not changed much says a lot, I'm sure the British are glad they kept their currency now, it helped save them before from having as bad a bank crash / property slump as we had.

I'll just leave this here..

Infini

alloywheel wrote: »

Interesting to see sterling is about the same (or even stronger) as it was ten years ago, I remember buying it then and a euro bought 89 pence sterling, now the euro will only buy 88 pence sterling.

Ahahaha.... NO

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=10Y

Sterling is as weak as it was 10 years ago and that was back during the height of the crash, recession and trainwreck that was the US subprime mortgage crisis. Notice how in the following years up to brexit how high sterling climbed in value before dropping down and taking a dump expecially the day after the referendum and ha declined since. Self inflicted damage.

Hurrache

alloywheel wrote: »

Are you aware a smaller country such as Singapore is much more successful than Ireland? What sort of trade deals did it negotiate?

We know you actually don't have the answer to the question, because you don't have answers to anything you dump here.

alloywheel

Hurrache wrote: »

We know you actually don't have the answer to the question, because you don't have answers to anything you dump here.

You implied countries outside the EU, or even small countries, cannot do trade deals or trade successfully on the world market. How wrong you are.

prawnsambo

alloywheel wrote: »

on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/11221427/EU-budget-what-you-need-to-know.html

Fat lot of thanks it got for putting in money, year after year, for 40 years.

No it's not. France's contribution in 2016 was €19 billion. It also contributed €1.7 billion to the UK's rebate.



Where's the thanks for Germany and France? Who help pay the UK rebate.

Jamiekelly

Comparing an island city state to anything that isn't one is basically apple vs oranges comparison.

If you want to play that game then it bites both ways. Which country did Singapore gain it's independence from? Here's a hint, it's the same one that voted to leave the EU.

Enzokk

alloywheel wrote: »

Are you aware a smaller country such as Singapore is much more successful than Ireland? What sort of trade deals did it negotiate?

I wasn't aware of that very interesting fact. Thank you for sharing it. I do know that Singapore has almost as many people living in the country as Ireland yet it has a land area about 116 times smaller.

I fail to see what Singapore has to do with what I asked you though.

alloywheel

prawnsambo wrote: »

No it's not. France's contribution in 2016 was €19 billion. It also contributed €1.7 billion to the UK's rebate.



Where's the thanks for Germany and France? Who help pay the UK rebate.

But France got a massive rebate from the EU, which includes the UK.
On a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...d-to-know.html