Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Calltocall · 13-03-2019 10:26PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

She basically threatened them with the 'no-deal' scenario. Today's vote was not legally binding.

Surely if it doesn't get through in a 3rd vote they'll have to have a people's vote?

How long can this chaos reign? Is any governing actually happening at the moment?

So by threatening them she thinks the over a hundred deficit will be reduced and she’ll get it through next time? Or is she going to make further amendments to win the doubters over? it doesn’t sound very hopeful at all that she will be third time lucky! Also is it not a bit presumptuous that they will actually be granted the extension?

branie2 · 13-03-2019 10:26PM

I'd say you could be right there.

Roger_007 · 13-03-2019 10:29PM

dresden8 wrote: »

New game now.

What countries would be more than happy to see the UK go now rather than later?

The French are always looking to big themselves up.

Thoughts?

What the Brits sometimes fail to understand is that many in the EU will be glad to see the back of them. The image that came across from the likes of Nigel Farage is that the Brits look upon the rest of Europe with a mixture of arrogance and contempt. The large europhile part of the British people never got much air time.

McMurphy · 13-03-2019 10:29PM

Sick of this bolloxology from the UK government, an utter farce. What an absolute dysfunctional pantomime they have descended into now.

At this stage I'm almost wishing they'd just be gone. Bit of finality to the shytsorm, and the rest of us could assess what this actually means to our lives, both in business and day to day terms, try and adapt and move on.

My only slight pleasure from the entire clusterfcuk has been witnessing how the DUP are slowly being reduced to the irrelevance they really are and always have been to the rest of their British peers.

Inquitus · 13-03-2019 10:30PM

Calltocall wrote: »

So by threatening them she thinks the over a hundred deficit will be reduced and she’ll get it through next time? Or is she going to make further amendments to win the doubters over? it doesn’t sound very hopeful at all that she will be third time lucky! Also is it not a bit presumptuous that they will actually be granted the extension?

ERG is about 80 votes, about 72 of them voted against last night, 10 DUP also voted against. To reverse a 150 vote majority she needs 75 of those 80, it does not look likely, but the ERG could decide unanimously to get some Brexit rather than risk no Brexit, so while it looks unlikely looking at the numbers, it does have some potential to fly in reality.

gooch2k9 · 13-03-2019 10:33PM

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105932337202774018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

She'll likely get it through then. DUP can't back away from Brexit either.

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

Inquitus · 13-03-2019 10:35PM

gooch2k9 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105932337202774018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

She'll likely get it through then. DUP can't back away from Brexit either.

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

She needs almost all of the ERG mind, it only takes 10 odd of them and/or the DUP to go the other way and its dead.

Irishmale0399 · 13-03-2019 10:36PM

Have the EU said anything to the shambles tonight???

Water John · 13-03-2019 10:37PM

Francois certainly won't support it, but some more LB MPs might support it.

Calltocall · 13-03-2019 10:37PM

Inquitus wrote: »

ERG is about 80 votes, about 72 of them voted against last night, 10 DUP also voted against. To reverse a 150 vote majority she needs 75 of those 80, it does not look likely, but the ERG could decide unanimously to get some Brexit rather than risk no Brexit, so while it looks unlikely looking at the numbers, it does have some potential to fly in reality.

Cheers for explanation, And if she falls a third time, what then, if it’s a general election isn’t it again unlikely that even a new government would be able to close the gap, I think it’s heading one way and that is to a no deal exit, might be best then not to grant the extension and get it over with rather than waiting months for the same outcome, I think if it’s an extension then there going to need longer than three months!

Roger_007 · 13-03-2019 10:40PM

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Have the EU said anything to the shambles tonight???

The mods wouldn't allow it to be repeated on Boards.;)

FrancieBrady · 13-03-2019 10:40PM

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Have the EU said anything to the shambles tonight???

Basically - There is only Deal or No Deal. The EU have agreed one and it is ready to sign (EU Commission statement I think)

briany · 13-03-2019 10:40PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Their vote is sovereign, ofc the EU can make a recommendation and apply, perhaps, some political pressure, but at the end of the day it's in each one of the E27's hands.

Well, it's no real skin off the nose of France to vote to extend A50, even if it's only by a few months. Since Ireland is by far the most affected by Brexit, it would be an interesting test of EU solidarity to see what the rest of the EU 27 say.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 10:41PM

gooch2k9 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105932337202774018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

She'll likely get it through then. DUP can't back away from Brexit either.

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

Makes no sense. So the only reason to vote against the previous two was because of May!?

Are these lads for real?

If they do that; they've lost all credibility. Whatever shreds of it they did have.

Making it a personality issue at this stage is the pits.

Calltocall · 13-03-2019 10:42PM

briany wrote: »

Well, it's no real skin off the nose of France to vote to extend A50, even if it's only by a few months. Since Ireland is by far the most affected by Brexit, it would be an interesting test of EU solidarity to see what the rest of the EU 27 say.

Indeed I’m not convinced it will be granted

jon1981 · 13-03-2019 10:42PM

This is like an Irish phone call ending...

EU : See ya now
UK: Take care
EU: All the best
UK: Good Luck
EU: Will ya go on
UK: I'm going im going
EU: Grand see ya now
UK: C'mere and i tell ya, you'll never guess what happened....

gooch2k9 · 13-03-2019 10:43PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Makes no sense. So the only reason to vote against the previous two was because of May!?

Are these lads for real?

No deal is better than May's deal. Financially so for some I'd imagine.

That's starting to look off the table.

Saying that I wouldn't be surprised if they said this and reneged. Time would be up at that point.

jon1981 · 13-03-2019 10:44PM

briany wrote: »

Well, it's no real skin off the nose of France to vote to extend A50, even if it's only by a few months. Since Ireland is by far the most affected by Brexit, it would be an interesting test of EU solidarity to see what the rest of the EU 27 say.

My thoughts exactly, this comes down to the question of will the EU f**k over a member state to make this Brexit deal happen?

13-03-2019 10:45PM

gooch2k9 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105932337202774018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

She'll likely get it through then. DUP can't back away from Brexit either.

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

DUP getting thrown under the bus in that scenario then.

13-03-2019 10:45PM

Inquitus wrote: »

She needs almost all of the ERG mind, it only takes 10 odd of them and/or the DUP to go the other way and its dead.

The DUP is mainly concerned with being treated the same as the mainland. I think they'd go for a soft Brexit or even potentially remain, if the only other option is the WA including the backstop.

dresden8 · 13-03-2019 10:47PM

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Will the countries have a "free vote" or will they vote collectively based on the recommendation from EU leadership?

Don't think Macron will take orders from Slovenia.

Beechwoodspark · 13-03-2019 10:50PM

dresden8 wrote: »

Don't think Macron will take orders from Slovenia.

Germany and France hold the power. God help any of the poor eastern members that act up

tuxy · 13-03-2019 10:51PM

All the talk for the last year or so of the EU backing down and making concessions at the 11th hour may have been because this is how many UK politicians like to do business and they assumed the EU did too. It's astounding that the UK has been in the EU for so long and is still so out of touch on how the union conducts itself.
Perhaps many of the google searches on "What is the EU?" following the referendum came from inside the HOC.

briany · 13-03-2019 10:51PM

jon1981 wrote: »

My thoughts exactly, this comes down to the question of will the EU f**k over a member state to make this Brexit deal happen?

Doubtful. It would be an epic climb down for the EU to go back on their backstop clause after repeated statements on their commitment to it.

There's no point on signing off on a deal that F's Ireland over permanently when it's better (though not exactly ideal) to go no-deal and then repeat the question of the backstop if and when the UK come back to the table.

Duane Dibbley · 13-03-2019 10:53PM

briany wrote: »

Well, it's no real skin off the nose of France to vote to extend A50, even if it's only by a few months. Since Ireland is by far the most affected by Brexit, it would be an interesting test of EU solidarity to see what the rest of the EU 27 say.

What has would an extension of A50 got to do with solidarity.

Ireland got what it needed from the EU with the deal that was agreed.

If the UK don’t come up with that deal agreed or a better one then any of the EU countries can push the UK off the edge and rightly so.

This needs to end now so Ireland and the rest of the EU can adapt to being 27.

tuxy · 13-03-2019 10:57PM

Flying Fox wrote: »

The DUP is mainly concerned with being treated the same as the mainland. I think they'd go for a soft Brexit or even potentially remain, if the only other option is the WA including the backstop.

Is that what they really want? I don't believe so. They have not spoken out against the different tariffs on the Ireland/NI border proposed this morning.
Also gay marriage, abortion.
My guess is that they actually want a hard border but they can't come out and say it as it would anger too many people in NI.

CelticRambler · 13-03-2019 10:57PM

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

Based on his recent rulings (and only that - I'm no expert on HoC procedures), this is my slightly revised prediction of what'll happen next:
- Bercow says no 3rd vote unless the motion is signficantly amended
- Kyle-Wilson amendment is tabled as just such an significant change (fits with Kyle saying he'd wait till the time was right)
but amended itself to specify that
-- the subsequent people's vote should be "this deal or no Brexit" on the grounds that parliament has voted no-deal off the table; and
-- if the EU will not grant an extension to allow such a vote, that Article 50 be revoked (calls the bluff of the ERG's friends in Europe)
- WA passes with a reasonable majority (ERG and DUP voting against)
- EU grants only a long extension on the grounds that the UK won't have enough time to organise EP elections if people vote for no Brexit.

joe40 · 13-03-2019 10:57PM

So Teresa May has lost her voice. Is that not very apt for the night that is in it...

PropJoe10 · 13-03-2019 11:01PM

So, yet another shambolic day in the House of Commons comes to an end. Roll on tomorrow and more shenanigans!

dresden8 · 13-03-2019 11:01PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Germany and France hold the power. God help any of the poor eastern members that act up

That was also the point I was making.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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