Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

LuckyLloyd

Corbyn fails to call for a referendum: disrespecting his party and his base, needs to go

Corbyn calls for a referendum: no chance of working, he knows it’s hopeless, cynical politics, he needs to go

Calina

Igotadose wrote: »

58 former national security officials condemn the 'national emergency' farce and will issue a statement condemning this. A bipartisan group, fwiw

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/431359-group-of-ex-national-security-officials-to-issue-statement-slamming

Gonna guess you are in the wrong thread...

Inquitus

Calina wrote: »

Gonna guess you are in the wrong thread...

Indeed this is the other "farce" thread!

Igotadose

Inquitus wrote: »

Indeed this is the other "farce" thread!

deleted (sorry!)

Cryptopagan

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Even if there were a referendum what question(s) would be asked ?

IMO, the acceptable questions from an EU perspective would be:
- a choice between no Brexit and May’s deal
- a choice between pursuing a Norway-style deal and May’s deal

Unacceptable to the EU, and grounds for rejecting an extension request:
- the inclusion of any undefined Brexit option,
for example, between May’s deal and some other unspecified version of Brexit
- the inclusion of any no deal option

Given the UK voters suspicious attitude toward AV and PR, the question would have to be a straight choice between A or B.

If the second referendum proposal does pass parliament, my guess is that a short extension would be requested by UK and granted by EU in which parliament would figure out what question to ask, followed by a second request for a longer extension to facilitate the vote itself, which would be granted if the proposed question is acceptable to Europe.

Akrasia

Cryptopagan wrote: »

If parliament backs a referendum on May’s deal vs Remain, the EU will extend A50 to facilitate it. Parliament won’t back it though.

They would have to if the alternative was
1. Crashing out
or
2. Cancelling A50 first, and then having discussions about 2nd referendum afterwards

Akrasia

prawnsambo wrote: »

Let me count the ways where this is as useful as a life jacket on an Everest expedition:

• There isn't time to hold a referendum without a major extension to Article 50
• Such an extension will mean British MEPs
• It still has to get through the HoC
• There is damn all time to get it through the HoC before the clock stops.
• And even if it gets through all that, It's going to really harden attitudes in the UK
• And I suspect Corbyn knows this and is only doing it to stave off more defections.

1. The EU will extend A50 for a 2nd referendum

2. British MEPS would be a factor in any meaningful extension

3. If Parliament backs a 2nd referendum in principle, then if they can't agree with the wording or legislation supporting a 2nd ref by 29th of March, they will have the option of cancelling A50 pending a 2nd referendum at a future date.

4. UK attitudes are already hardened. They can't say that the Brexiteers weren't given ample opportunity to negotiate a workable brexit. They failed. Only a very small proportion of the voters support a No Deal crash out so given that May's deal was a non runner, a 2nd referendum was the only other option

5. Corbyn knows that if he doesn't follow through with his commitment from the party conference, he could well be thrown out of as leader of the Labour party and there won't be another labour party leader with his ideological pursuasion for at least a generation. This is his only chance to save his legacy and keep his hopes of becoming PM alive.

liamtech

Akrasia wrote: »

1. The EU will extend A50 for a 2nd referendum

2. British MEPS would be a factor in any meaningful extension

3. If Parliament backs a 2nd referendum in principle, then if they can't agree with the wording or legislation supporting a 2nd ref by 29th of March, they will have the option of cancelling A50 pending a 2nd referendum at a future date.

4. UK attitudes are already hardened. They can't say that the Brexiteers weren't given ample opportunity to negotiate a workable brexit. They failed. Only a very small proportion of the voters support a No Deal crash out so given that May's deal was a non runner, a 2nd referendum was the only other option

5. Corbyn knows that if he doesn't follow through with his commitment from the party conference, he could well be thrown out of as leader of the Labour party and there won't be another labour party leader with his ideological pursuasion for at least a generation. This is his only chance to save his legacy and keep his hopes of becoming PM alive.

The UK would also have the oppertunity (in the event of an extension) to vote for MEP's that have a remain platform, which would certainly show goodwill. Yes of course the likes of Mr Farage would probably be re-elected but he would certainly look foolish accompanying predominantly Remain MEPs into a New European parliament in 6 odd months time

It really depends on a new poll, for us to speculate further. Today, in my view, has been a game changer. Labor are now supporting a 2nd Ref; Groups of Tory Back benchers and some cabinet ministers, dont want NO Deal and are up for extension.. the next poll will be the indication of what is to come.

Perhaps the Cleavage in British politics at the moment isnt Tory/Lab, but more Leave/remain

4068ac1elhodqr

Odds for 2nd Ref have shortened significantly today from 4.0 to as low as 2.6.
(2.6 means you if you back that market with 100, get gross rtn of 260)...

It's more likely now that has even been.

Question: Will diverting A50 (2yrs/+2nd Ref) result in a 'yellow vest' type protest movement from the 17.4m.

Capt'n Midnight

Cryptopagan wrote: »

IMO, the acceptable questions from an EU perspective would be:
- a choice between no Brexit and May’s deal
- a choice between pursuing a Norway-style deal and May’s deal

Unacceptable to the EU, and grounds for rejecting an extension request:
- the inclusion of any undefined Brexit option,
for example, between May’s deal and some other unspecified version of Brexit
- the inclusion of any no deal option

Given the UK voters suspicious attitude toward AV and PR, the question would have to be a straight choice between A or B.

If the second referendum proposal does pass parliament, my guess is that a short extension would be requested by UK and granted by EU in which parliament would figure out what question to ask, followed by a second request for a longer extension to facilitate the vote itself, which would be granted if the proposed question is acceptable to Europe.

How many times do I have to point out that Norway is a complete non-starter because of all the UK's Red Lines.

Here's three referendums.
a choice between Remain and May’s deal
a choice between Remain and Hard Brexit
a choice between hard Brexit and May’s deal

First decide what result you want and then choose the right choice and then choose the words to use and order to ask the question.

Strazdas

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Odds for 2nd Ref have shortened significantly today from 4.0 to as low as 2.6.
(2.6 means you if you back that market with 100, get gross rtn of 260)...

It's more likely now that has even been.

Question: Will diverting A50 (2yrs/+2nd Ref) result in a 'yellow vest' type protest movement from the 17.4m.

Labour supporting a second referendum ramps up the chances of there being one considerably. Given the Parliamentary arithmetic, you could easily imagine MPs authorising a poll.

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

Labour supporting a second referendum ramps up the chances of there being one considerably. Given the Parliamentary arithmetic, you could easily imagine MPs authorising a poll.

A second referendum could easily be leave again..

Then what?

Parliament still won't know what Brexit it wants!

Infini

Strazdas wrote: »

Labour supporting a second referendum ramps up the chances of there being one considerably. Given the Parliamentary arithmetic, you could easily imagine MPs authorising a poll.

I would agree on this. It all comes down to the simple truth that Remain is united in what it wants and Leave is fragmented and disorganised. If there's a 2nd referendum and its between Mays deal and Remain Brexit is done. Leave is NOT an option only a miniority of Zealots, Idiots and Parasitical Disaster Capitalists want this. Most have enough cop on to realise this and that no deal is the worst outcome.

Jeremy is late to the party of course but his stance has cost him support in the last few weeks and this is likely why hes finally getting off his arse to finally do the job he should have been doing all this time.

4068ac1elhodqr

Strazdas wrote: »

Labour supporting a second referendum ramps up the chances of there being one considerably. Given the Parliamentary arithmetic, you could easily imagine MPs authorising a poll.

Odds wise it's nearly doubled it's chances of Ref2.0, so could certainly be on the cards.

If they gain a 2yr delay of sorts, that leaves enough time to organise a PR campaign, and plastering of buses with promotional messages for 'de peoples vote'.

Worth investing in the companies that make hi-vis vests, if it beckons weekly street protest. They're not as vocal as the French, and will likely opt for a nice shade of 'luminous Farage Purple' and polite banners.

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

A second referendum could easily be leave again..

Then what?

Parliament still won't know what Brexit it wants!

The fact that the Brexiteers and the right wing press are so deeply hostile to a second referendum would suggest they don't fancy their chances at all. If they thought they had even a 55% chance of winning it, they'd be all gung ho in favour and saying 'Bring it on'.

BluePlanet

2nd referendum is a waste of time. We need Britain out at this stage.
If they remain the Tories and UK press will be even an nastier bunch of aholes.

Reality is that UK have long been recalcitrant members and they'll only be a major drag on any new EU initiatives.

RobMc59

The chance of a 2nd referendum is great news to all UK remainers-yes Corbyn might not really be enthusiastic about it but the recent defectors has probably focussed his view and he does`nt want anymore.
I`m confused by a number of posters who seem disappointed in this news though-why is that?

liamtech

RobMc59 wrote: »

The chance of a 2nd referendum is great news to all UK remainers-yes Corbyn might not really be enthusiastic about it but the recent defectors has probably focussed his view and he does`nt want anymore.
I`m confused by a number of posters who seem disappointed in this news though-why is that?

I for one am delighted but we need a proper poll now - as in, if there is a second ref, how would you vote - i believe we will get that in the days to come.. especially as Labor have no backed a second ref

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

The chance of a 2nd referendum is great news to all UK remainers-yes Corbyn might not really be enthusiastic about it but the recent defectors has probably focussed his view and he does`nt want anymore.
I`m confused by a number of posters who seem disappointed in this news though-why is that?

Because it's a mountain to climb. If it had been called a year ago it would still be a mountain to climb, but now it's to be climbed on the clock. There's barely time to get to base camp.

Leroy42

BluePlanet wrote: »

2nd referendum is a waste of time. We need Britain out at this stage.
If they remain the Tories and UK press will be even an nastier bunch of aholes.

Reality is that UK have long been recalcitrant members and they'll only be a major drag on any new EU initiatives.

We certainly do not need Uk out. The best outcome for Ireland is for Britain to remain in the EU.

The blowback from the media etc will be their own problem, but at least we won't have the economic disruption and the probability of a hard border.

That is not to say that even a remain vote actually solves anything, but in terms of our 1st choice remain would be it.

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

Because it's a mountain to climb. If it had been called a year ago it would still be a mountain to climb, but now it's to be climbed on the clock. There's barely time to get to base camp.

Taoiseach Varadkar seemed happy today about the possibility of a delay and Tusk believes a delay is inevitable-if the UK asked for an extension so there could be a 2nd referendum surely thats good news?

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

We certainly do not need Uk out. The best outcome for Ireland is for Britain to remain in the EU.

The blowback from the media etc will be their own problem, but at least we won't have the economic disruption and the probability of a hard border.

That is not to say that even a remain vote actually solves anything, but in terms of our 1st choice remain would be it.

Good point about the border (and the GFA by implication). Virtually any sort of Brexit would mean a bit of a stand off between the UK and Ireland.

briany

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is not to say that even a remain vote actually solves anything

A Remain vote would solve the UK's current political crisis. What it would not solve is the sociological issues that lead to Brexit being a thing in the first place. Most, if not all, of that disaffection will remain. I don't think the current political class in the UK has any particularly satisfactory answers for the laypeople on that matter other than to jam the lid on and hold it down as tightly as possible.

intellectual dosser

prawnsambo wrote: »

Because it's a mountain to climb. If it had been called a year ago it would still be a mountain to climb, but now it's to be climbed on the clock. There's barely time to get to base camp.

If there is something of substance like a second referendum then I expect the EU would allow enough time to prepare for it, execute it, and then legislate for its outcome.

BluePlanet

Leroy42 wrote: »

We certainly do not need Uk out. The best outcome for Ireland is for Britain to remain in the EU.

The blowback from the media etc will be their own problem, but at least we won't have the economic disruption and the probability of a hard border.

That is not to say that even a remain vote actually solves anything, but in terms of our 1st choice remain would be it.

In the short term yes, it's the best outcome for us.
But in the long term no, that is not a given at all.

With Leave, we can pick over the corpses of UK's financial industry, and others.
We can add 'join the EU' to win a referendum on a UI.
That's not possible if they Remain.

4068ac1elhodqr

It's already being marketed sa the 'Final Say' Referendum,
as the last one was a 'people's vote' by it's very nature, of about 34m showing up to vote.

Marketing option A: "Have it your way, with the Final Say"
Marketing option B: "Circle the day (21 June 2019?) for you Final Say"
Marketing option C: "I did it my way, with the final, really final, Final Say"

Hurrache

Realistically how can Labour force the second vote? I'd be very surprised if it happens.

prawnsambo

intellectual dosser wrote: »

If there is something of substance like a second referendum then I expect the EU would allow enough time to prepare for it, execute it, and then legislate for its outcome.

It's not the EU I'm concerned about. It's the menagerie colloquially known as the House of Commons.

S.M.B.

I would have been a lot more confident of the outcome of a vote being flipped 12 months ago but I'm not so sure now.

I think one fact that this whole mess has highlighted is how difficult it is to decouple from something like the EU, even if it's not in ones best interest.

I think some of the anti establishment votes from the previous votes will have turned into apathetic "just leave already" votes.

nice_guy80

a remain vote with a nice sweetener thrown in from the EU

it worked for the Nice Treaty 2 vote