Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Junkyard Tom

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

My point is that the UK will effectively be silenced when it comes to human rights abuses due to the sheer need for foreign trade and investment.

I'm not all that confident the British state will prioritise human rights over armament sales, in the case of Saudi Arabia at least.


Germany has refused to bow to pressure from Britain to start selling arms to Saudi Arabia again.

Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, had written to Berlin to ask the government to soften its stance, saying it is “imperative” that it exempt big defence projects from its arms sales halt to Saudi Arabia or face damage to its commercial credibility.

independent.co.uk [4 days ago]

liamtech

liamtech wrote: »

Just announced on Sky News

If PM cant get deal through parliament by 13th March - Backbenchers will insist on voting for extension, and taking no deal off table

Vote will be taken and expected cross party support

Just Live on Sky News ATM

cant find it online but just announced by kAy Burley

Edit - im fixing a laptop while watching it but thats what i caught - stand corrected if i missed something but that was the general gist

Just caught it again - a senior minister has told Sky news that both members of the cabinet along with back benchers will do the above - and the previous guy had said this would possibly garner cross party support - just chatting to a guy in work about it - interesting to see what happens next

Akrasia

Bambi wrote: »

She said "Delay is delay"


"Brexit is Brexit"


Presumably



"Lamp is lamp"


You have to wonder

Ruling things out isn't necessarily ruling things out for May though

Nobody believes her that the UK can leave with a deal on 29th of March. Not one single informed person believes her.

They can crash out certainly, but not leave with a deal.

briany

liamtech wrote: »

Just caught it again - a senior minister has told Sky news that both members of the cabinet along with back benchers will do the above - and the previous guy had said this would possibly garner cross party support - just chatting to a guy in work about it - interesting to see what happens next

How many times has no-deal been supposedly taken off the table only for it to still be on the table?

liamtech

briany wrote: »

How many times has no-deal been supposedly taken off the table only for it to still be on the table?

yea but this is ny the actual tory party and her cabinet - and bare in mind that labor would support that in all probability - the lib dems and the SNP too in all probability - - Corbyn is a brexiter but not a member of the ERG

Inquitus

Could be something

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1100080959830061057

briany

liamtech wrote: »

yea but this is ny the actual tory party and her cabinet - and bare in mind that labor would support that in all probability - the lib dems and the SNP too in all probability

Let's hope so, anyway.

But there's one apparent snag - an extension is not unilateral, and I've seen it said that the EU will not agree to an extension unless the UK can give a reason why an extension is needed e.g. time to hold a 2nd ref, or time to hold a GE. Things that could provoke positive political movement in the UK, in other words. I don't think the EU are all that interested in a few more months of May merely making token visits to Brussels only for the same result. It would be just as well to have it over with sooner than later in that case.

RobMc59

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A further blow to Britain's international standing has come in the Hague, where the long-standing case concerning Diego Garcia has ended, with the UK ordered to relinquish the Chagos Islands:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/25/un-court-rejects-uk-claim-to-sovereignty-over-chagos-islands?CMP=share_btn_tw

As an advisory decision and with Britain and the US permanent members of the UN security council it's unlikely to be resolved soon.

prawnsambo

liamtech wrote: »

Just caught it again - a senior minister has told Sky news that both members of the cabinet along with back benchers will do the above - and the previous guy had said this would possibly garner cross party support - just chatting to a guy in work about it - interesting to see what happens next

In fairness, that looks like a lot of resignations. When did this happen?

Zubeneschamali

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I would expect the UK to become a lot more divided if they don't get their way.

I would also expect the UK to become more divided if there is a No Deal brexit with food and medicine shortages and Remoaners yelling "Oh, we so fecking told you so!" 24/7.

Artifacting

RobMc59 wrote: »

As an advisory decision and with Britain and the US permanent members of the UN security council it's unlikely to be resolved soon.

It shows the stark contrast between the way the EU works - everyone's on fairly equal footing as member states and how the UK likes it, special little cabal of more important countries who ignore all the rules at the UN by being permanent members of the security council.

The UK would probably be fine with the EU if it had special VIP status where each UK vote counted for say 25 votes from 'lesser countries.' That seems to be the only kind of multilateralism they accept i.e. everybody's equal, except they're significantly more equal than other countries.

liamtech

prawnsambo wrote: »

In fairness, that looks like a lot of resignations. When did this happen?

i have Sky News muted cause they are in oscar fever atm - but im waiting for six to see

Inquitus wrote: »

Could be something

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1100080959830061057

now im waiting for this too

Inquitus

Interesting

Corbyn: Labour to back second referendum
The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, says the party will seek a second referendum to prevent what he calls a “damaging Tory Brexit”.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1100085278562226176

ilovesmybrick

Reports that Corbyn will back a second referendum. To be honest it's too late. If it goes through its entirely contingent on getting an extension for a referendum with no clear options, and even if it goes ahead there's an extra year of uncertainty and we could be back in the same situation in twelve months.

The time for a second referendum was last summer.

Coillte_Bhoy

BBC reporting that Corbyn is supporting a second referendum

Zubeneschamali

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The time for a second referendum was last summer.

No, last summer there was no deal to vote on.

J Mysterio

Five Polish opposition parties on Sunday (24 February) unveiled a coalition to fight the European elections in May, accusing the ruling conservatives of seeking an exit from the European Union.

“We will make it impossible for anyone to take Poland out of the European Union,” said a statement by the main opposition Civic Platform (PO); the Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL); the liberal Nowoczesna party; the Social Democrats (SLD) and the Greens

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/polish-opposition-forms-coalition-for-european-elections/

Polish Peasants Party... Great name.

Infini

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Reports that Corbyn will back a second referendum. To be honest it's too late. If it goes through its entirely contingent on getting an extension for a referendum with no clear options, and even if it goes ahead there's an extra year of uncertainty and we could be back in the same situation in twelve months.

The time for a second referendum was last summer.

Better late than never eh? I'd say hes only moving now because Labour support is dropping and he's no other option at this point if he wants the top job. That being said if he's finally been pushed to deploy a 1nd referendum at least it will push the agenda towards and end to this farce. Just need to push through an A50 withdrawal and 2nd referendum and the EU in theory wouldnt have a problem with this.

Cryptopagan

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Reports that Corbyn will back a second referendum. To be honest it's too late. If it goes through its entirely contingent on getting an extension for a referendum with no clear options, and even if it goes ahead there's an extra year of uncertainty and we could be back in the same situation in twelve months.

The time for a second referendum was last summer.

If parliament backs a referendum on May’s deal vs Remain, the EU will extend A50 to facilitate it. Parliament won’t back it though.

liamtech

Cryptopagan wrote: »

If parliament backs a referendum on May’s deal vs Remain, the EU will extend A50 to facilitate it. Parliament won’t back it though.

But with the cabinet and backbencers supposidly considering a rebellion in 2 weeks time - never say never -

BTW no one else has reported this Tory News - iv googled and havent found any trace of it

prawnsambo

Infini wrote: »

Better late than never eh? I'd say hes only moving now because Labour support is dropping and he's no other option at this point if he wants the top job. That being said if he's finally been pushed to deploy a 1nd referendum at least it will push the agenda towards and end to this farce. Just need to push through an A50 withdrawal and 2nd referendum and the EU in theory wouldnt have a problem with this.

Let me count the ways where this is as useful as a life jacket on an Everest expedition:

• There isn't time to hold a referendum without a major extension to Article 50
• Such an extension will mean British MEPs
• It still has to get through the HoC
• There is damn all time to get it through the HoC before the clock stops.
• And even if it gets through all that, It's going to really harden attitudes in the UK
• And I suspect Corbyn knows this and is only doing it to stave off more defections.

Sierra Oscar

Inquitus wrote: »

Could be something

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1100080959830061057

I reckon this is a sign that Corbyn thinks May will get her deal through parliament when push comes to shove.

lawred2

Cynical token gesture from Corbyn. Too late

CelticRambler

Akrasia wrote: »

Moving the last minute 21 months further away just means 21 months more posturing, obfuscating, internal bickering before another crunch

...

There is no reason to believe that a consensus will emerge on what GB want from Brexit between now and next year, and no matter what deal gets negotiated or renegotiated, half the brexiteers will say it's not a real brexit, the other half will say it's too brexity, and all the remainers will say it's inherently economically inferior to the UK staying in the EU

I've just re-watched John Oliver's "Brexit" episodes from 2016 (immediately pre- and post-referendum) and 2017. In both episodes, he predicted everything that we've seen over the last two years, specifically the impossibly of a Tory government being able to negotiate anything resembling a workable deal. He went so far as to suggest that it would be more effective to send Lord Buckethead to carry out the negotiations instead!

So neither do I believe the UK under the Tories can get any kind of deal that will satisfy themselves no matter how much extra time the EU grants them. But undoubtedly the EU know that too, so it's intriguing to speculate about what effect they were/are hoping for by suggesting such a long extension. It's almost as if Brussels is doing a Theresa on it - bypassing the UK's appointed negotiator and speaking directly to the HoC. :cool:

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

lawred2 wrote: »

Cynical token gesture from Corbyn. Too late

yes, this is correct, he knows this has little to no chance of happening, but he can say he tried.

Sierra Oscar

Nalani Crashing Scabies wrote: »

yes, this is correct, he knows this has little to no chance of happening, but he can say he tried.

Yeah Labour trying to placate both remainers and leavers. Treating the electorate as fools to be honest. Too late in the day.

prawnsambo

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Yeah Labour trying to placate both remainers and leavers. Treating the electorate as fools to be honest. Too late in the day.

It's still parties negotiating with themselves with only party unity the goal. At some point the pilot will look at his instrument panel and see that they're 20 feet off the ground with their undercarriage still up.

Capt'n Midnight

Even if there were a referendum what question(s) would be asked ?

But first there's another round of amendments tacked on for yet another round of voting
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47360465

Wednesday: MPs debate an amendable motion tabled by the government. Speaker John Bercow chooses which amendments to put forward, and MPs vote on the next step proposals.

Cryptopagan

Does it matter if it’s cynical? If it passes parliament, all sides will have to explore the possibilities, including the EU, who can hardly dismiss a second chance for remain after all the warnings about the Good Friday Agreement being potentially undermined by Brexit. There was always a possibility that a departing member state’s 2 year period might overlap with a European election, so I’m sure some solution could be found.

I very much doubt it will pass parliament, but it’s a chink of light for remainers.

Laois_Man

If there is a 21-month delay on article 50 as has been suggested today, it is not too late for a second ref.

The EU will jump at the chance to have a second ref (as long as the ballot paper has a "Remain" option)

Would it pass thru the HoC though? Even if all Labour (and former Labour) MPs back it, plus 4 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green Party, about 10 current and former Torys definitely are known to support it, all 11 Lib Dems, and even of they get all 35 SNPs, they still need nearly all the independends and/or a few more Torys.

Labour MPs from pro-leave constituencies will be under pressure to vote it down - there's bound to be a few who go against the whip! I don't think they have the numbers - unless a good few more Tory's back it.