Longshot Value at Cheltenham

handsfree2

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

And beaten by Elixir De Nutz last time out who is 8s.

Beat vision du Flo's last time out which I thought was another improvement from the tolworth.

He travelled strongly in the tolworth and was out stayed by the nuts when looking like the most likely winner. I was taken by that run and the subsequent defeat of vdf sealed the deal for me. Vdf has gone on to win since that defeat.

He hasn't been mentioned in any previews so I had to check if he was still in and thankfully he is. 12/1 is a big price imo

Gringo180

handsfree2 wrote: »

Beat vision du Flo's last time out which I thought was another improvement from the tolworth.

He travelled strongly in the tolworth and was out stayed by the nuts when looking like the most likely winner. I was taken by that run and the subsequent defeat of vdf sealed the deal for me. Vdf has gone on to win since that defeat.

He hasn't been mentioned in any previews so I had to check if he was still in and thankfully he is. 12/1 is a big price imo

If hes getting outstayed around Sandown surely no hope for him around Cheltenham.

handsfree2

Gringo180 wrote: »

If hes getting outstayed around Sandown surely no hope for him around Cheltenham.

Normally I'd agree with you but he stayed on strongly to beat sceu Royal and vdf next time out.

He ran to a rating of 152 which is in and around what's required to win the supreme.

The ground for t

I'd be firmly of the opinion that he's improved a lot between runs.

handsfree2

Gringo180 wrote: »

If hes getting outstayed around Sandown surely no hope for him around Cheltenham.

Normally I'd agree with you but he stayed on strongly to beat sceu Royal and vdf next time out.

He ran to a rating of 152 which is in and around what's required to win the supreme.


I'd be firmly of the opinion that he's improved a lot between runs.

longshotvalue

Lads i opened this tread the same as I've done every year to stick up my selections, can we cut out all the sh1te talk.


Arkle NRNB Value Play

We’re is a good position in this race with our Hardline pick from a couple of weeks ago at 25/1, but I see an potential value NRNB play as well that I just can’t ignore. It seems clear to me that Mengli Kahn is a soft ground 2 miler. His run at Christmas wasn’t that bad considering it was on unsuitable good ground and I can safely ignore the Dublin Racing Festival run on basically firm. He will improve for cut and although it’s more likely we’ll be getting our money back when they run in in the JLT instead, we just can’t be leaving this value lying around. He’s a 16/1 shot here if its soft and he turns up so 33/1 has to be taken. The soft ground festival form cannot be ignored either and there is literally no chance he will run in this race if the ground is good-soft.
2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB Coral/Fred/Tote/Sporting

madmoose

Thought on Valseur Lido at 33/1 for the plate nrnb?

He’s off 145 now 3 years after he was 2nd to Vautour off 161 in the Ryanair, totally exposed but has back class and he is only 10.

longshotvalue

Supreme
It's not often I pick in these novice races at the festival but Itchy Feet's form really does stand out for a 25/1 Shot. He just failed to give Elixir De Nuts 5lbs over this course and distance and was unbeaten prior to that. He has had a nice break and the trainer is certainly in form. That form is actually as good as anything in the race. He just can't go off 25/1.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

4:10 Mares
As per Podcast Slowmotion interests me here at a huge price. Her hurdles form is actually very consistent and I thought she looked decent behind Laurina last time out. In the main there isn’t much between all the rest behind the front 2 for me and 66/1 is value. Is softer ground she will be staying on at the end.
1 Point EW 66/1 ¼ 365 1/5th Generally

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Arkle

Hardline is one I had in mind for JLT but it appears this is his most likely race, and considering his form with Us and Them (who I also really rate here); he could well have some of the best 2 mile form ,when slamming him by 10 lengths. His run last time can be ignored as he was being minded on the ground and when the Jockey realized he had loads of horse left he made a huge amount of ground to be 3rd. 25/1 is looking massive on collateral form.

2 Points win 25/1 nrnb 365/sky

Running tomorrow.. Needless to say . Week make or break time

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Mares Hurdle

We’re going to take advantage of this market before everything changes shortly. I think Benie Des Dieux is over-rated on last year’s win, given Apples Jade wasn’t in form and my 66/1 selection nearly beat her. She looks to me to need a softer surface and may well get outpaced on good ground. My feeling is Limini’s form the year before is much stronger and she has been running well this year. She wasn’t far behind Supasunday in the Hattons Grace and then ran well behind Percy last time out . She also has a number of good runs on the flat this year. If Laurina doesn’t go here I think she could well be in a 2 horses race, and the other one hasn’t seen the racecourse yet. Well play it safe and have a saver on Laurina just in case.

It’s not out of the question that Limini goes of Fav here at something like 7/4 (as its possible none of the ones above her in the betting are here at all) but she really can’t go off much bigger than 8/1 no matter who turns up.

2 Points win 8/1 365 NRNB Limini

½ Point win 4/1 Laurina hills/betfair Ante-post

9/1 still available, looks great value

yaboya1

Elimay looks a bet at 20/1 in the mares. One run to date for Mullins when she was 2nd to good thyne tara, ahead of limini who was 3rd.
With a bit of further improvement likely to be squeezed out of her she looks a bet today.

Brock Turnpike

yaboya1 wrote: »

Elimay looks a bet at 20/1 in the mares. One run to date for Mullins when she was 2nd to good thyne tara, ahead of limini who was 3rd.
With a bit of further improvement likely to be squeezed out of her she looks a bet today.

FFS

longshotvalue

4:40 Close Brothers
Movewiththetimes has been on my mind for this since I saw the entries and he has only got bigger in price . He fell in 3rd at the last in the Paddy Power, and his best run ever was a second in the betfair hurdle on soft ground. Obviously, he will need to improve his jumping but he is in no better place to do just that. 16/1 is bigger than I expected.
2 Points win 16/1 lads/betfair/888

idnkph

aidankkk wrote:

We’re is a good position in this race with our Hardline pick from a couple of weeks ago at 25/1, but I see an potential value NRNB play as well that I just can’t ignore. It seems clear to me that Mengli Kahn is a soft ground 2 miler. His run at Christmas wasn’t that bad considering it was on unsuitable good ground and I can safely ignore the Dublin Racing Festival run on basically firm. He will improve for cut and although it’s more likely we’ll be getting our money back when they run in in the JLT instead, we just can’t be leaving this value lying around. He’s a 16/1 shot here if its soft and he turns up so 33/1 has to be taken. The soft ground festival form cannot be ignored either and there is literally no chance he will run in this race if the ground is good-soft. 2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB Coral/Fred/Tote/Sporting

Mengli khan not running?

longshotvalue

1:30 Supreme
I have to add another bet here. Aramon is just too big a price here. He has Grade 1 form in Ireland that could well be the best on office and there is far to much in price between him and Klassical Dream and Vision DHonour.
1 Point win 14/1 Generally

longshotvalue

2:50 Ultima
Catamaran De Seuil has taken me all morning to find in this. I’ve managed to rule out most of the field in what looks a below average renewal. He likes soft ground looks like a stayer and has a fair bit of pace as well judging by a good win earlier this year that has worked out. He has a decent 5lbs claimer on and the trainer just doesn’t send no hopers. 80/1 has to be a bit of value.
1 Point EW 80/1 ¼ 5 places 365 .

RivetingRoger

idnkph wrote: »

Mengli khan not running?

Jlt

D.Q

aidankkk wrote: »

2:50 Ultima
Catamaran De Seuil has taken me all morning to find in this. I’ve managed to rule out most of the field in what looks a below average renewal. He likes soft ground looks like a stayer and has a fair bit of pace as well judging by a good win earlier this year that has worked out. He has a decent 5lbs claimer on and the trainer just doesn’t send no hopers. 80/1 has to be a bit of value.
1 Point EW 80/1 ¼ 5 places 365 .

gonna have a bit of this.

maximoose

Itchy feet in 3rd, nice one Aidan!

D.Q

aidan coming up with the goods again. Cheers mate.

Father Hernandez

Super tipping on Itchy Feet Aidan

longshotvalue

Carnage yesterday, and nearly all those Antepost bets are fecked with the ground. Still onwards


1:30 Ballymore
Going through the whole field there is very little that have any soft ground form. Castlebawn West looks like Mullins second choice here but I don’t think that is apparent anymore. He looks a strong stayer that will be suited by soft ground. His bumper win was on heavy. 40/1 is certainly value here
1 Point EW 40/1 ¼ 365

longshotvalue

2:10 RSA
The Worlds End was impressive here earlier this year with some superb jumping. He has some very decent soft ground form and if we can forgive him his last run he could get involved here. I’m hoping he goes of in front and gets into a rhythm.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

2:50 Coral Cup
Tully East had a funny looking season for a horse that needs at least 2 ½ miles. He has loads of soft ground form and to my eye looks like this race has been the plan off a workable mark. He caught the eye for me last time out in a good race on fast ground and he just has to improve for this trip and ground.
2 Points EW 20/1 7 places Paddy 22/1 6 place lads/betfair
I’m also going for a win bet on my original choice here Scarpeta. He could be the class horse in the race but has a lot of weight to carry. 22/1 is still value
1 Point win 20/1

longshotvalue

4:10
Cross Country
Kingswell Theatre looks a bit of value here with a few good runs over a year ago. He has a decent record fresh, and has run well on soft ground. 50/1 looks very big.
1 Point EW 50/1 4place betvictor 3 places elsewhere

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Champion Bumper

Now is as good a time as any to back a 20/1 shot that will go of about 8/1 . Meticulous is gradually improving and was on the way to running down the fav for this race last time out. I think he will love the hill here and there is just no chance he goes off at anything like this price. If he does we can just keep backing it.

2 Points win NRBD20/1 paddy/vc

Previously advised running today. Ground has probably scuppered the value here. Currently 8/1

longshotvalue

4:50
King Dargent has some interesting looking soft ground flat maiden form. His 4yo hurdle form looks fine but I think he could seriously improve for a sterner test here. He is of bottom weight for a top-class operation.
2 Points EW 28/1 5 places sky/365/fred

Sultan of Bling

aidankkk wrote:

4:50 King Dargent has some interesting looking soft ground flat maiden form. His 4yo hurdle form looks fine but I think he could seriously improve for a sterner test here. He is of bottom weight for a top-class operation. 2 Points EW 28/1 5 places sky/365/fred

Finished 4th. Very impressive winner there.

28112827

aidankkk wrote: »

4:50
King Dargent has some interesting looking soft ground flat maiden form. His 4yo hurdle form looks fine but I think he could seriously improve for a sterner test here. He is of bottom weight for a top-class operation.
2 Points EW 28/1 5 places sky/365/fred

Fair play Aidan, nice place to keep things ticking along

TallyRand

Are you up or down at the half way stage?