Longshot Value at Cheltenham

longshotvalue

Ill be starting with a decent Ante-post bet

longshotvalue

Ryanair Chase

The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.

2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY

RivetingRoger

Aidan do u expect Footpad or UDS to go Ryanair?

longshotvalue

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Aidan do u expect Footpad or UDS to go Ryanair?

Lord knows . Not both for sure .

RivetingRoger

aidankkk wrote: »

Lord knows . Not both for sure .

Min favourite 😅

madmoose

aidankkk wrote: »

Ryanair Chase

The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.

2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY

He goes straight there trainer said the other day and i backed at 50/1 myself with Hills ew as it’s too big for an open race.

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

He goes straight there trainer said the other day and i backed at 50/1 myself with Hills ew as it’s too big for an open race.

Lovely figured that . Goes off 12-16/1 at most .

RivetingRoger

Maybe not a double figure, but I think the 7/1 available on faugheen in the stayers NRNB is a great bet
Looked like he was shaping well behind the wondermare the last day till he tipped up. Nothing in that race should scare connections. Can Faugheen beat Penhill? Course he can! Can faugheen beat Supa over 3m? Course he bloody can!
His run at Punchestown over the trip was a demolition job.

Unless AJ goes Stayers, there is nothing to fear, and at 7/1 nrnb, I honestly think its a decent bet

(10/1 in boyles, but not nrnb)

longshotvalue

May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.

carq

aidankkk wrote: »

May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.

Labaik !!?
Sommerville boy back after injury at a big price ?

NaiveMelodies

aidankkk wrote: »

May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.

How far will Espoir D'Allen win by?

Seriously though, if he runs well in Naas this weekend, do you/the panel think that connections will run him in the CH? Would it be foolish not too?

The Champion Hurdle looks like it could have a poorer quality field than the Mares Hurdle at this stage. Discuss...

Tombstone came 4th it a sensational Supreme. Given his much improved run LTO, is 100/1 a slight oversight?

The Mig

aidankkk wrote: »

May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.

He's out for the season Aidan :pac:


Best of luck with it in all seriousness though. How far does Blow by Blow win the 4 miler by?

longshotvalue

The Mig wrote: »

He's out for the season Aidan :pac:


Best of luck with it in all seriousness though. How far does Blow by Blow win the 4 miler by?

Miles I'd say . Do like the swc horse as well .

Earendil

aidankkk wrote: »

May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.

What's the name of the Podcast Aidan? I mean if you done some before.

longshotvalue

Earendil wrote: »

What's the name of the Podcast Aidan? I mean if you done some before.

Nope never did one . It'll be for the laugh mainly . Probably be the least professional podcast , with Kilkenny bog accent .

Should be called longshotvalue cheltenham preview or something .

Intro sorted hopefully Wicklow brace commentary with music .

RivetingRoger

Sounds excellent!!!!
Link us up Aidan!!

(Wanna know where ye think Footpad should and will run)

idnkph

Would love to listen. Hope it goes good for you.

NaiveMelodies

Can you please get Sting on the panel?

The Mig

Skype him in from the villa in the south of France

Gavin "shels"

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Can you please get Sting on the panel?

Do the recording of him once it's been recorded...

BumperD

aidankkk wrote: »

Miles I'd say . Do like the swc horse as well .

BBB rsa, think that 4 miler is a lot more competitive than you think

RivetingRoger

Impulsive Star for the 4 Miler
still 12/1 AP

Bangor Billy

Will we get your podcast this side of the pond Aiden?

BumperD

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Can you please get Sting on the panel?

He’s already booked for a Cheltenham Preview for the day after the festival ends.

Motivator

BumperD wrote: »

BBB rsa, think that 4 miler is a lot more competitive than you think

Blow By Blow lacks gears over fences for an RSA I think. The 4 miler looks right up his street.

The Mig

BumperD wrote: »

BBB rsa, think that 4 miler is a lot more competitive than you think

They have Delta Work for that. BBB looks slow as a boat. I think OK Corral will go RSA

Maxbing

aidankkk wrote: »

Ill be starting with a decent Ante-post bet

Testing

idnkph

Motivator wrote:

Blow By Blow lacks gears over fences for an RSA I think. The 4 miler looks right up his street.

What day is the 4 miler?

sitkaspruce

Posh Trish in the mares novice hurdle

BumperD

The Mig wrote: »

They have Delta Work for that. BBB looks slow as a boat. I think OK Corral will go RSA

Ok coral 16/1 for rsa, 7/2 fav for 4 miler after lumps of money in last 10 days. That should tell you it has really outside chance of going RSAjockey booking on ok corrals last run also strong indicator 4 miler is the target, things can change but just look at the market moves, someone knows

BumperD

idnkph wrote: »

What day is the 4 miler?

Day 1 Tuesday

BumperD

Motivator wrote: »

Blow By Blow lacks gears over fences for an RSA I think. The 4 miler looks right up his street.

He is slow but you know, it’s an awful slog of a race, just won’t be shocked if he rocks up in it

longshotvalue

I’m going to forgive Sam Spinner his last 2 runs and give him a chance here at a price that’s worth the gamble. The top of the market looks weak apart from Black Ops. 14/1 is too big and if he does win 33/1 is massive in the Stayers Hurdle.


½ Point win 33/1 NRNB Stayers 365

paddy no 11

Is the jockey up to it Aidan? The taking on lil rock today was hardly a help, surely an even gallop behind him was required

Would 2m 4 be better for him ?

longshotvalue

paddy no 11 wrote: »

Is the jockey up to it Aidan? The taking on lil rock today was hardly a help, surely an even gallop behind him was required

Would 2m 4 be better for him ?

He ran well , I was amazed he stayed on fir 4th . He'd have to get his own way in front . Fav will be very hard to beat .

dicky dunne

aidankkk wrote: »

Ryanair Chase

The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.

2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY

Harty quite bullish about him today after Advantage Point won, plan has always been to head straight to the Ryanair, he's actually drifted to 40/1 with 365....absolutely stonewall crazy price! horse has so much potential

dicky dunne

One that i keep backing on Betfair Exchange is The Big Bite for the supreme novice, the horse is still a big baby and tends to run green but has bags of talent, a winner of 4 of his 6 races although beaten in his two toughest test id still have high hopes for this lad, went off 2nd fav in the novice hurdle won by Mister Fisher at kempton over Christmas, again ran very green for most of it and a mistake 2 or 3 out scuppered his chances, Tom George has said since that if they were to line up again he see's no reason as to why he cant overturn the form, Mister Fisher (albeit maybe not a massive supreme player) is currently priced top price 14/1 lowest price 9/1 while The Big Bite can be got @ 75.0+ on Betfair Exchange or 66/1 on their Sportbook

madmoose

Western Ryder at 40/1 for the County is one i have backed with one firm, i’m sure that will be 20/1 on the day, just had an ew bet on it.

RivetingRoger

Backing Jezki at 25/1 ew for the County Hurdle
One last hurrah

longshotvalue

Champion Bumper

Now is as good a time as any to back a 20/1 shot that will go of about 8/1 . Meticulous is gradually improving and was on the way to running down the fav for this race last time out. I think he will love the hill here and there is just no chance he goes off at anything like this price. If he does we can just keep backing it.

2 Points win NRBD20/1 paddy/vc

longshotvalue

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate

I’ve had Romain De Senam in mind for one of these races all year, and nothing has gone right for him. He has some smart form around here and also at the festival. On any kind of half decent ground he’ll be sure to get competitive here of his current mark. He’s s decent jumper, and this is his trip. I’m convinced he’ll have this race in his mind all this year and 33/1 is huge.

2 Points EW NRNB Paddy/hills 33/1 5 place’s

longshotvalue

Arkle

Hardline is one I had in mind for JLT but it appears this is his most likely race, and considering his form with Us and Them (who I also really rate here); he could well have some of the best 2 mile form ,when slamming him by 10 lengths. His run last time can be ignored as he was being minded on the ground and when the Jockey realized he had loads of horse left he made a huge amount of ground to be 3rd. 25/1 is looking massive on collateral form.

2 Points win 25/1 nrnb 365/sky

longshotvalue

Mares Hurdle

We’re going to take advantage of this market before everything changes shortly. I think Benie Des Dieux is over-rated on last year’s win, given Apples Jade wasn’t in form and my 66/1 selection nearly beat her. She looks to me to need a softer surface and may well get outpaced on good ground. My feeling is Limini’s form the year before is much stronger and she has been running well this year. She wasn’t far behind Supasunday in the Hattons Grace and then ran well behind Percy last time out . She also has a number of good runs on the flat this year. If Laurina doesn’t go here I think she could well be in a 2 horses race, and the other one hasn’t seen the racecourse yet. Well play it safe and have a saver on Laurina just in case.

It’s not out of the question that Limini goes of Fav here at something like 7/4 (as its possible none of the ones above her in the betting are here at all) but she really can’t go off much bigger than 8/1 no matter who turns up.

2 Points win 8/1 365 NRNB Limini

½ Point win 4/1 Laurina hills/betfair Ante-post

RivetingRoger

Good thyne Tara could be the ew bet in the mares. Interesting to see if missy tata or sassy diva end up here

That said I agree with Aidan. Limini for me too

Morleystreet

aidankkk wrote: »

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate

I’ve had Romain De Senam in mind for one of these races all year, and nothing has gone right for him. He has some smart form around here and also at the festival. On any kind of half decent ground he’ll be sure to get competitive here of his current mark. He’s s decent jumper, and this is his trip. I’m convinced he’ll have this race in his mind all this year and 33/1 is huge.

2 Points EW NRNB Paddy/hills 33/1 5 place’s

I see he running at kempton tomorrow Aidan , 16-1. Though I like Walt in that race.

longshotvalue

Morleystreet wrote: »

I see he running at kempton tomorrow Aidan , 16-1. Though I like Walt in that race.

Tipped him at 20/1 EW for this . He'llgo close here and that looks value to me.

RivetingRoger

What u think of Jezki in the County Aidan?
25/1 now

Paul_Mc1988

Morleystreet wrote:

I see he running at kempton tomorrow Aidan , 16-1. Though I like Walt in that race.

Great call on walt. Came in a 14/1.

longshotvalue

JLT

I just have to have a bet here on Hardline as well. I would have originally thought he would go here and this looks a weak race. Well get our money back if he doesn’t run in the Arkle and I just can’t see him going of bigger than 8/1 if he lies up here. In addition he looks the most likely winner of this race if he does go for it. 16/1 nrnb is well worth a bet now.

2 Points win 16/1 nrnb 365

longshotvalue

RivetingRoger wrote: »

What u think of Jezki in the County Aidan?
25/1 now

I fully expect there to be collection on the Friday.

NaiveMelodies

aidankkk wrote: »

I fully expect there to be collection on the Friday.

Down to 150, reckon the English handicapper can justify adding to that?