European Parliament Elections 2019

L1011

Eamon Ryan was rightly criticised for a pointless, expensive recount in 2014, in a much smaller field to recount at that. This is going to be vastly more costly.

irishash

robman60 wrote: »

FG got a big % because they had a huge name in each constituency. FF had Kelleher and to a much lesser extent Andrews and that was it.

Too simplistic I feel - The party machine is too big to allow it to be overrun by personality. MG got a huge vote share because she is well like and highly regarded as a MEP. Not her personality.

AndrewJRenko

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Some think that Sinn Fein's stance on abortion with a lack a conscience vote cost them up to 5% in the polls because aontu took those voters.

Did some just make up those figures? Aontu got lots of pro-life votes from people who would never have voted for the Shinners in a million years.

ligerdub

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Thrice, he attempted to get into the Seanad in 2016, got 14 votes.

I find these sort of comments reveal less than they suggest, particularly when it comes to independent candidates. The implied message is that he should just forget it and walk away.

How about a story about a 25 year old guy who ran for a Dail seat in 1997 against his current landlord, who was a sitting TD at the time. He picked up about 500 votes (1%) and was eliminated first along with the candidate for the "Natural Law Party" (who ran on the policy of using meditation to reduce societal ills!).

He could have just forgot it and walked away. Instead he contested the 1999 European elections......where he again received 1% of the vote. He could have walked away then, but he contested the 2002 general election, and again received 1% of the vote!

So that's thrice now that this chap has failed, and not even been close. He was perceived as a novelty candidate, a bit of a joke, but nobody told him, this chap was serious.

He didn't give up. He turned to more local elections, which he won.

In 2011 he contested a general election again, his 3rd attempt at it, all of them as an Independent. He won a seat and topped the poll!

Three years later he contested the European elections and again won a seat. In 2019 he again contested an election for the seat he was then holding, and was again successful, 2nd to be elected in that region. He won a seat at the expense of the thrice failing Peter Casey. That guy's name is Luke Flanagan, MEP.

If that example isn't enough how about another one. A candidate who first sought election in 1997.

Attempt 1 (1997): 218 votes (0.5%),
Attempt 2 (2002): 1.4%,
Attempt 3 (2007): 4%
Attempt 4 (2016): 10.2%

In 2016 she won a seat in the Dail on count 11, and by only 35 votes! No matter, she won! That was Brid Smith, TD.

Say what you like about the two of them (and those are only 2 of the top of my head) and their policies, but the fact remained is that they were once considered bordering on novelty candidates or the "loony vote". They didn't give up though, and they both ultimately succeeded.

Casey may ultimately end up without ever winning a seat/election, but he has been the next one in line in both the Presidential and MEP elections, and he has gained enough votes to at least be considered a contender and future success cannot be written off.

If there's a lesson I've taken from observing these things over the years is to not write people off, even if it looks like they have no support.

Loafing Oaf

feargale wrote: »

Brendan Behan said that when a new party is founded in Ireland the first item on the agenda is the split.

After voting had ended Saoirse McHugh said that she would resign from the Green Party if it went into coalition.

With FF or FG is what she said, in fairness. A widely held position across all shades of the Irish left.

irishash

ligerdub wrote: »

I find these sort of comments reveal less than they suggest, particularly when it comes to independent candidates. The implied message is that he should just forget it and walk away.

How about a story about a 25 year old guy who ran for a Dail seat in 1997 against his current landlord, who was a sitting TD at the time. He picked up about 500 votes (1%) and was eliminated first along with the candidate for the "Natural Law Party" (who ran on the policy of using meditation to reduce societal ills!).

He could have just forgot it and walked away. Instead he contested the 1999 European elections......where he again received 1% of the vote. He could have walked away then, but he contested the 2002 general election, and again received 1% of the vote!

So that's thrice now that this chap has failed, and not even been close. He was perceived as a novelty candidate, a bit of a joke, but nobody told him, this chap was serious.

He didn't give up. He turned to more local elections, which he won.

In 2011 he contested a general election again, his 3rd attempt at it, all of them as an Independent. He won a seat and topped the poll!

Three years later he contested the European elections and again won a seat. In 2019 he again contested an election for the seat he was then holding, and was again successful, 2nd to be elected in that region. He won a seat at the expense of the thrice failing Peter Casey. That guy's name is Luke Flanagan, MEP.

If that example isn't enough how about another one. A candidate who first sought election in 1997.

Attempt 1 (1997): 218 votes (0.5%),
Attempt 2 (2002): 1.4%,
Attempt 3 (2007): 4%
Attempt 4 (2016): 10.2%

In 2016 she won a seat in the Dail on count 11, and by only 35 votes! No matter, she won! That was Brid Smith, TD.

Say what you like about the two of them (and those are only 2 of the top of my head) and their policies, but the fact remained is that they were once considered bordering on novelty candidates or the "loony vote". They didn't give up though, and they both ultimately succeeded.

Casey may ultimately end up without ever winning a seat/election, but he has been the next one in line in both the Presidential and MEP elections, and he has gained enough votes to at least be considered a contender and future success cannot be written off.

If there's a lesson I've taken from observing these things over the years is to not write people off, even if it looks like they have no support.

From the two examples you gave, the path is clear for Casey - go into local government and learn to be a lawmaker. That is what Ming did, that is what Smith did. Before they did that, they were not trusted by the public to be electable. After multiple years gaining experience they were trusted and elected.

Somehow I can't see publicity vacuum Casey doing this. He is not in this for the greater good and public service.

martingriff

martingriff wrote: »

If Ni Riada had not gone for the president she would more have likely had got in.

Excuse my ignorance but when a full recount is asked is it from count 1 or a full recount of the last count

Full recount of all 700 and whatever thousand votes. So right from count one. Will take longer as there will be less people
The 357 votes difference is only a tiny percentage.

votecounts

Clune and O'Sullivan would have both demanded recounts if they were in this position, you can be sure of that.

Chips Lovell

Yeah, I think any one would have in the circumstances. It's a massive constituency, meaning the margin is tiny relative to the overall vote. A few misplaced bundles of ballots and it could be a different result.

Dyr

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Sinn Fein voter base was always working class men. They won't vote for radical feminists or trendy liberals who spend their days talking about "period poverty" and transgender rights. They won't vote at all if thats what on offer. Funnily if you look at the figures, massive amount of female SF councillors lost seats.

I would agree there is many who like SFs IRA past. I'd know a fair few who would be supporter of the Provos campaign but not the Sinn Fein party, especially now. Most would be fairly disappointed with Sinn Fein now, and many wouldn't vote for them anymore.

I'd agree with the first sentence, the hyper-progressive crusading is probably what sank them. What is more interesting is the large amount of former SF councillors (including women) who held onto their seats and why that is.

Gael23

Are Mick Wallace and Deirdre Clune elected?

An Ciarraioch

Gael23 wrote: »

Are Mick Wallace and Deirdre Clune elected?

No, even Kelly and Kelleher have been "de-elected" until the recount concludes.

An Ciarraioch

irishash wrote: »

From the two examples you gave, the path is clear for Casey - go into local government and learn to be a lawmaker. That is what Ming did, that is what Smith did. Before they did that, they were not trusted by the public to be electable. After multiple years gaining experience they were trusted and elected.

Somehow I can't see publicity vacuum Casey doing this. He is not in this for the greater good and public service.

Yes - I remember RTE doing a documentary on Ming in the late Nineties during his "Ming the Merciless" phase, when he was exclusively concerned with legalising cannabis. He later learned that the only way to win election was through community activism, and that greater maturity got him onto Roscommon County Council. Perhaps Casey could become a more conventional politician, but his Twitter feed suggests little desire to do so.

Zubeneschamali

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Aontu got lots of pro-life votes from people who would never have voted for the Shinners in a million years.

I strongly doubt that - they were clearly just a prolife SF party, like Renua are prolife FG.

Loafing Oaf

Bambi wrote: »

I'd agree with the first sentence, the hyper-progressive crusading is probably what sank them.

Are they any bigger on such crusading now than they were five years ago, when they won three Euro seats and were just behind FF and FG in FPV?

Zubeneschamali

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Are they any bigger on such crusading now than they were five years ago, when they won three Euro seats and were just behind FF and FG in FPV?

Maybe not, but in the past 5 years we've had referenda on abortion, same sex marriage, blasphemy and divorce, with SF in favour of all four.


If you are a dinosaur Catholic Republican, this would rub you up the wrong way. As we can see from the Aontú split.

Fan of Netflix

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Are they any bigger on such crusading now than they were five years ago, when they won three Euro seats and were just behind FF and FG in FPV?

5 years ago they mainly talked about austerity and the bank bailouts.They never really talked about the divisive social issues. They changed a lot in those 5 years. I have an old leaflet from Sinn Fein which was a lengthy attack on the EU. Now they run around with EU flags.

LuckyLloyd

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

5 years ago they mainly talked about austerity and the bank bailouts.They never really talked about the divisive social issues. They changed a lot in those 5 years. I have an old leaflet from Sinn Fein which was a lengthy attack on the EU. Now they run around with EU flags.

It's absolutely normal for a party to move on in terms of its policy positions over the years. Five years ago SF's stance on abortion maybe was somewhat muddled, that is clearly no longer the case and they've lost votes on that. They also had a somewhat negative stance on the EU but they've moved to a more pro EU position. That has also clearly cost them votes. There's no doubt that Adams and McGuinness not being at the helm anymore allied to those policy positions that have changed cost them some votes, as much as many on this forum couldn't contemplate such a thing.

I personally think their policy shifts have been positive, and their base of support should be more solid not to move forward with than their 10% in 2011 was - with a leadership transition and showdown on moral issues still to be traversed at that time.

BonnieSituation

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't understand how someone tells a story full of defrauds employees and taxpayers and lies and is caught out, because it was really stupid, and still gets elected. Mariaick Walshlace is an embarrassment to us all.

FYP

Speak for yourself. Walsh hasn't embarrassed me one iota.

People voting for FF, I4C PBP etc are more embarrassing to me.

Wrongway1985

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

They also had a somewhat negative stance on the EU but they've moved to a more pro EU position. That has also clearly cost them votes.

Should be noted one of the parties goals has always been a United Ireland. Brexit has cast doubt on the relationship of Northern Ireland to the UK as a whole its just a money pit problem child. Sinn Fein will gladly gloss away any Euro skeptics if it helps get a glimmer of light to achieve this.

Wrongway1985

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't understand how someone tells a story full of defrauds employees and taxpayers and lies and is caught out, because it was really stupid, and still gets elected. Mariaick Walshlace is an embarrassment to us all.

Are you disappointed Regina Doherty still has Fine Gael membership or sad to see Michael Lowry doesn't?

mart 23

golfball37 wrote: »

Yes.

I see from todays Irish Times the two cold storage MEP"s will not get a salary till the UK leaves

decies

votecounts wrote: »

Clune and O'Sullivan would have both demanded recounts if they were in this position, you can be sure of that.

Rubbish O Sullivan’s campaign manager said after the recheck today and the extra 1 vote if in same position they would not have asked for recount . Joke of a decision by the shinners and will be remembered in Waterford at next general election .

votecounts

Easy to say now, but I am 100% convinced if the situation were reversed the reps would be doing the same.

Capt'n Midnight

mart 23 wrote: »

I see from todays Irish Times the two cold storage MEP"s will not get a salary till the UK leaves

And what of the MEP's who will have to wait up to a month for the recount ?

Tin Foil Hat

RTE seem be be assuming Clune is safe in 4th spot. Is it not likely that O'Sullivan will overtake her on Ni Riada's transfers and put her on the subs bench?
(Assuming no change after this stoopid recount)

hmmm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Jesus wept - €1m for a recount where she is 300+ votes behind and a recheck only gave her one extra vote? Its crazy this is allowed. Moreover I think the cost of this will gain traction as another issue for SF leadership to answer in the coming days.....

Absolutely ridiculous for a largely pointless seat. SF should show they have some bit of respect for the taxpayer by withdrawing the request over the weekend.

Zubeneschamali

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

And what of the MEP's who will have to wait up to a month for the recount ?

MEPs aren't due to take these seats until July.

NIMAN

hmmm wrote: »

Absolutely ridiculous for a largely pointless seat. SF should show they have some bit of respect for the taxpayer by withdrawing the request over the weekend.

:D:D:D:D:D:D
Yeah, like that'll happen.

Speak Now

decies wrote: »

Rubbish O Sullivan’s campaign manager said after the recheck today and the extra 1 vote if in same position they would not have asked for recount . Joke of a decision by the shinners and will be remembered in Waterford at next general election .

Off all the things Cullinane voters could jump ship for I'd doubt this even register.

I remember hearing this about how Eddie Mulligan would be punished at next local elections for getting elected Independent and then jumping to FF.