European Parliament Elections 2019

is_that_so

markodaly wrote: »

Again, I was rounded on for the second time yesterday when I mentioned eVoting or some electronic method of scanning paper ballots.

'Sure what's the problem if it takes a few days to fix...'

Well, this is the problem right here, the fact we could be waiting a fecking month to see who takes the final seats in an election.

'But sure its grand..'

Here's something you could try - stop talking about it!

Christy42

She could well have simply been mirroring her parents pride at the time. Maybe she only found out when she was 5-6 and felt the pride then without realizing it had been a thing for a while.

Who knows. It is quite possibly the most pathetic "scandal" I have seen.

If that is the worst we have on her we have done pretty well.



As for Casey vs McHugh. McHugh was put forward as the (wrong) face of the green wave as her likelihood of getting elected before the poll was so low.

Leo was looking at the results country wide.

We elect people to represent us and our views. We should not take our views from people who can't get voted in. Sure Casey did better in mnw where he was strongest and the greens we're weakest (and it was still close). When Leo says he will tackle green issues he is looking for those green votes nationwide. The votes that got greens on councils and that have elected 1-2 MEPs as opposed to looking for votes that couldn't even get 1 person elected.

markodaly

Snow Garden wrote: »

- I often watch the Tonight Show and there is a SF TD on there regularly that gives me the creeps. He can never answer a question truthfully either. Found his name; David Cullinane. Many SF TDs seem coached to communicate the exact same message.

This.This.This.

I heard on the radio two days ago a SF TD (It well have been him) giving the same monotone speil about SF, their hard work, the failings of the government...etc..etc...

It sounded robotic, put on and insincere. People grow so tired of it.
I think people are starting to wise up to it. They come across as inhuman. Non of them are likable on a personal level.

Politicians are not robots, they are people and the thing SF TD's and their like give off is a stern collectivist vibe that it's all about the cause and party.
It may have done them well to get to this stage, but if you want to play with the big boys, it won't do. The thing is though transitioning to that is a lot more difficult.

The issue with SF is cultural tbh. They attract a lot of people who tend to have an authoritarian streak, as that is how they view the world.

Fan of Netflix

If Casey goes back to running on an anti traveller/crime ticket and does run in Donegal GE like he said before, he would have a shot at a seat I reckon. Could run in Longford or somewhere where he's picking up votes either. His anti immigration stuff looked like he came up with it in the pub before the debates.

markodaly

is_that_so wrote: »

Here's something you could try - stop talking about it!

Well this count could drag into July so people will be talking about it.

Loafing Oaf

osarusan wrote: »

With regard to Casey, the Presidential Election could easily be portrayed as a success of sorts for him, given his figures compared to far more established political figures.

Not easy at all to portray this campaign as a success though. Maybe he thought the presidential campaign would keep him in people's minds or whatever, but it didn't work out for him. He has the option as running for TD, but I don't know whether FF, or any other party, would be that interested.

The main parties have already told him they're not. I suppose he might get in as an Independent if he chose the right constituency but I can't see what he could achieve through that.

Fan of Netflix

Like clockwork we have the latest Sinn Fein bandwagon. Wonder why he came out with that this week? lol

https://twitter.com/sinnfeinireland/status/1133711441905803264

irishash

charlie14 wrote: »

I edited late, so you most likely missed the point I made on your 15% - 20% seats loss for FF in seats based on those two opinion polls you mentioned.

Sorry I missed your edit - I think you read my point as if the 2 polls percentages were replicated in the GE. I was basing my numbers on if the Euro election percentages were replicated.

FF got 44 seats based on 24% of the vote in the 2016 GE, which tallys well with the 2 polls I mentioned. If the vote from the Euro was replicated in the GE, according to the stats from RTE, where FF vote dropped 8%, you are looking at a share of 16-18%.

Accounting for vote sharing and other regional issues, FF could return about 34 TD’s which would be around a 23% decrease in numbers. So I think I under-estimated the first time going off pure numbers. I still think a drop of 15-20% is realistic though.

Wrongway1985

is_that_so wrote: »

I have memories of famous people from a very young age because my parents talked about them and they seemed important to them and by extension to me. They do say that the age between 2-5 is where we form the core of our personality.

Wont deny that certainly something at the core of it.

Zubeneschamali

markodaly wrote: »

Well, this is the problem right here, the fact we could be waiting a fecking month to see who takes the final seats in an election.

We get it - you are impatient.

Zubeneschamali

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I suppose he might get in as an Independent if he chose the right constituency but I can't see what he could achieve through that.

It's transparently obvious that what he wants is a nice salary at our expense. RTE, President, Euro Parliament, he doesn't care. He has no political vision, no principles and will say anything populist to get attention and/or votes.


A TDs salary for a few years as an Independent would suit him grand, stand up and abuse minorities in the Dail once in a while, get in the papers, collect dollars, job done.

Snow Garden

markodaly wrote: »

This.This.This.

I heard on the radio two days ago a SF TD (It well have been him) giving the same monotone speil about SF, their hard work, the failings of the government...etc..etc...

It sounded robotic, put on and insincere. People grow so tired of it.
I think people are starting to wise up to it. They come across as inhuman. None of them are likable on a personal level.

Politicians are not robots, they are people and the thing SF TD's and their like give off is a stern collectivist vibe that it's all about the cause and party.
It may have done them well to get to this stage, but if you want to play with the big boys, it won't do. The thing is though transitioning to that is a lot more difficult.

The issue with SF is cultural tbh. They attract a lot of people who tend to have an authoritarian streak, as that is how they view the world.

Yes you made my point better than I could. Totally insincere robotic, coached etc. All of them which is quite weird.

Riskymove

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yes you made my point better than I could. Totally insincere robotic, coached etc. All of them which is quite weird.

it was notable that the other winners/losers at the end of MNW vote were all talking quite normally and perhaps thanking someone or whatever

Matt Carty was just basically roaring about SF, the SF policy and SF votes and we'll be back etc...

An Ciarraioch

Total recount confirmed:

http://twitter.com/SineadNiN/status/1134088293560307712

For Forks Sake

jm08 wrote: »

He got loads of exposure through campaigning for Co. Council support to appearing on a couple of tv programmes (apart from already having a media profile from the Dragons Den). McHugh litterly had a few minutes in one tv debate.


So, thats twice Casey has failed to get elected (even in a 4 seater constituency).

Thrice, he attempted to get into the Seanad in 2016, got 14 votes.

Chips Lovell

Mod Note

Please read the charter. Don't dump links, memes or images. It's a discussion forum.

Thanks.

blanch152

eagle eye wrote: »

She remembers being do proud when we elected our first female President.
She was 3 years old.

My daughter is a few years younger than her. I remember talking to her about Mary Robinson and Mary McAleese when she was about five, and the importance of women being elected to those positions. It certainly struck a chord with my daughter and remained with her.

Walsh would have been 10 when Robinson resigned, she would certainly remember Mary Robinson as the first President, though not the time of election, and it could well be her first introduction to politics.

onlyonpaper

I honestly don't believe the Euro elections are an accurate barometer of outcome of General election. The two most prominent in this one were Sean Kelly and particularly Mairead McGuinness who has been on UK and Irish tv in relation to Brexit on a very regular basis and has an enormous profile. In 2014 election Brian Crowley got 27% of the vote for Fianna Fail in South despite them losing almost 60 seats in the General election a couple of years previously.

I fear this coming election could be complete stalemate. I see both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael being around in the low to mid 50s seat wise with Sinn Fein 15-20 and the rest in mid single figures ( Lab, Soc Dems and Greens) and a drop in the no of Independents. Don't see FF doing another conf and supply arrangement so either FG does it or we will be off to the polls again fairly quickly.

SirGerryAdams

blanch152 wrote: »

My daughter is a few years younger than her. I remember talking to her about Mary Robinson and Mary McAleese when she was about five, and the importance of women being elected to those positions. It certainly struck a chord with my daughter and remained with her.

Walsh would have been 10 when Robinson resigned, she would certainly remember Mary Robinson as the first President, though not the time of election, and it could well be her first introduction to politics.

Walsh moved to Ireland when she was 7.

I HIGHLY doubt a 3 year old kid in America would have any idea of an Irish president being elected, nevermind having the emotional maturity to get the importance of it being the first woman president.

She's a fraud. An absolute fraud and it's a bigger embarrassment that she got elected as MEP having turned up at the last minute having not been involved in anything relevant to the job. It's a bigger embarrassment than Lowry or the Healy Raes getting elected. At least they do things for their community as big as an embarrassment that they are.

markodaly

Riskymove wrote: »

it was notable that the other winners/losers at the end of MNW vote were all talking quite normally and perhaps thanking someone or whatever

Matt Carty was just basically roaring about SF, the SF policy and SF votes and we'll be back etc...

This again.

It was quite telling that when politicians were being interviewed in the count centers they spoke from the heart. Its one of the rare times you get to see a politician talk like that. They were all speaking from a personal level, taking the day or two off from the adversarial nature of Irish politics.

All without exception, apart from SF. Again, they are like robots and have to be 'on' all the time, maybe they are scared that SF HQ in West Belfast will be onto them if they drop their guard and actually talk like a human rather than 32bit robot.

charlie14

irishash wrote: »

Sorry I missed your edit.

FF got 44 seats based on 24% of the vote, which tallys well with the 2 polls I mentioned. If the vote from the Euro was replicated in the GE, according to the stats from RTE, where FF vote dropped 8%, you are looking at a share of 16-18%.

Accounting for vote sharing and other regional issues, FF could return about 34 TD’s which would be around a 23% decrease in numbers. So I think I under-estimated the first time going off pure numbers. I still think a drop of 15-20% is realistic though.

Were in apples and oranges territory here.

That is not what your original premise of FF losing seat numbers in a GE was. Then you based it on a Red C poll (23 April) of 23% and a MRBI Poll (May 10th.) of 26% where you said if these figures were duplicated in a GE would result in FF losing 15 - 20% of their seats. There is no reason I can see why they would as they have their current number of seats from a vote share in GE 2016 of 24%.


In fact, those polls from Red C in April and MRBI in May tally with their local election vote share of this month which when taken in consideration leave the EU vote share very much an outlier

irishash

onlyonpaper wrote: »

I honestly don't believe the Euro elections are an accurate barometer of outcome of General election. The two most prominent in this one were Sean Kelly and particularly Mairead McGuinness who has been on UK and Irish tv in relation to Brexit on a very regular basis and has an enormous profile. In 2014 election Brian Crowley got 27% of the vote for Fianna Fail in South despite them losing almost 60 seats in the General election a couple of years previously.

I fear this coming election could be complete stalemate. I see both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael being around in the low to mid 50s seat wise with Sinn Fein 15-20 and the rest in mid single figures ( Lab, Soc Dems and Greens) and a drop in the no of Independents. Don't see FF doing another conf and supply arrangement so either FG does it or we will be off to the polls again fairly quickly.

You could well be right, but the poll numbers done on a national basis guide us towards a few logic assumptions for the next GE. The FG numbers held up quite well, as did Labour and independents. Where the numbers differed was in relation to FF, SF and the Greens.

Polls can be taken with a pinch of salt of course. What is interesting is where a poll is right on the money and where it is wrong. Take MNW for example, the last IT poll got the result pretty much spot on - MG 26%, Ming - 16%, MC 14%, MW - 11%, PC - 9%, BS - 8%. It was the same for Dublin with but the same exception replicated nationally - FF/SF inflated and Greens/I4C deflated.

Based on that, the timing of the poll and the actual results, it is a fair logical guess to make that FF/SF are mis-represented in the polls, FG/Lab/Independents are spot on, Greens deflated. The next national poll will make interesting reading.

Source - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll

Loafing Oaf

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It's transparently obvious that what he wants is a nice salary at our expense. RTE, President, Euro Parliament, he doesn't care. He has no political vision, no principles and will say anything populist to get attention and/or votes.


A TDs salary for a few years as an Independent would suit him grand, stand up and abuse minorities in the Dail once in a while, get in the papers, collect dollars, job done.

I'm not sure that's his motivation. Is he not already a very wealthy man? I think he's after power and publicity but can't figure out a route map to the former.

irishash

charlie14 wrote: »

Were in apples and oranges territory here.

That is not what your original premise of FF losing seat numbers in a GE was. Then you based it on a Red C poll (23 April) of 23% and a MRBI Poll (May 10th.) of 26% where you said if these figures were duplicated in a GE would result in FF losing 15 - 20% of their seats. There is no reason I can see why they would as they have their current number of seats from a vote share in GE 2016 of 24%.


In fact, those polls from Red C in April and MRBI in May tally with their local election vote share of this month which when taken in consideration leave the EU vote share very much an outlier

I realised later what you were referring to and edited my response to you. I am basing my predictions for the next GE on the percentage results nationally from the Euro elections. I am not basing my figures on the polls - I only mentioned them to compare the polls to the actual results. Sorry for any confusion caused on my part.

As for the local election results, I believe that peoples voting preference is skewed for local issues and local personalities. FF have always, even in the years after 2008, the biggest national party on a local level. Polls are done on a "who would you vote for in a GE" not in local elections.

robman60

I think people are mad extrapolating the Euros to a general. As someone has said above, McGuinness pulling a huge vote is not all down to her party label - she is the only prominent MEP we have. Add to this FF's main hope in MNW being a fella clearly looking for a retirement gig, and Casey taking 10% of the vote of which I'd wager at least half was FF general election vote. FG got a big % because they had a huge name in each constituency. FF had Kelleher and to a much lesser extent Andrews and that was it.

I feel after the crisis of 2008 we may have a new era where FG rather than FF are the default party of government almost, but I don't think it is indicative of a huge vote for FG over FF come a general election.

AndrewJRenko

Laois_Man wrote: »

You should study the types of things that Blockchain is being developed towards and is already being used for

- Health records storage at hospitals and transfer to insurers, SSL Certification, Banking, auto-payments via smart contracts, tonnes of stuff - huge financial value and huge privacy requirements - never been an issue

None of these domains have the anonymity requirements of eVoting.

Laois_Man wrote: »

With voting as a use case, the voter can follow their vote into the blockchain before leaving the polling station. (S)he can be given an identifier that allows them to still see that vote on the blockchain 20 years later if they want (without revealing who the votes were to),

I'll stop you there if that's OK. As soon as you give the voter a way to validate their vote outside of the polling booth, you enable vote buying and selling.

Laois_Man wrote: »

You s
By the way, to address this notion that the pencil/paper system is fool proof - When I was in the local school voting last Friday, it was a reasonably busy time of the evening and I spent a fair bit of time there as I'd know the people working there and got chatting. I noticed that generally, couples were entering and sharing booths when marking their papers. There was absolutely no check done in that school whatsoever as to whether the voters were acting freely in the process - many couples were openly looking at each others papers while marking their choices. In fact, my own wife who hasn't got a clue about politics and who only shows up to vote coz I nag her to come (and to have a natter with the staff herself), tends to just copy whatever I do in every single election!

Yes, that can be an issue - an polling station staff need to do a better job at ensuring there is no duress involved.

Rebelbrowser

From RTE:-


Full recount announced in Ireland South constituency

".......The move follows a recheck of the vote of Sinn Féin's Liadh Ní Riada and the Green Party's Grace O'Sullivan.

The recheck resulted in Ms Ní Riada picking up just one vote from almost 200,000 papers.

...Mr Harvey said it will be difficult to get the necessary staff to carry out the recount, but it will be done and will take time.

He said the recount may cost up to €1m, but the true cost has not been estimated yet....."

Jesus wept - €1m for a recount where she is 300+ votes behind and a recheck only gave her one extra vote? Its crazy this is allowed. Moreover I think the cost of this will gain traction as another issue for SF leadership to answer in the coming days.....

AndrewJRenko

markodaly wrote: »

Again, I was rounded on for the second time yesterday when I mentioned eVoting or some electronic method of scanning paper ballots.

'Sure what's the problem if it takes a few days to fix...'

Well, this is the problem right here, the fact we could be waiting a fecking month to see who takes the final seats in an election.

'But sure its grand..'

Yet again, I have to ask - so what? What's the problem if it does take a month or more?

feargale

Christy42 wrote: »

McHugh was put forward as the (wrong) face of the green wave as her likelihood of getting elected before the poll was so low.

Brendan Behan said that when a new party is founded in Ireland the first item on the agenda is the split.

After voting had ended Saoirse McHugh said that she would resign from the Green Party if it went into coalition. It's a pity she didn't say that before she got the nomination, because any party with a scrap of savvy would not nominate a wrecker or potential wrecker. Her defeat may be a blessing in disguise for the GP. For years Labour tore themselves apart over coalition until they got sense and discovered that such matters can be resolved by a vote inclusive of all the party. Politics, and particularly party politics is about give and take.

Ireland has evolved from a two and a half party state to a multi-party one and that is no bad thing. But in such a state government is only possible if all parties from time to time face up to their moral obligation to take responsibility for governing. It's enough to have the clowns at Stormont playing silly buggers about governing.
Any party that calls its stance on coalition a core value (as FF once did) doesn't know the meaning of core value. Socialism v capitalism is a core value. So is United Ireland v Unionism. So is Brexit v Remain. Coalition is at worst a necessary evil in a democratic multi-party state.

Anyone who shows so little understanding of what it means to belong to a party, and who seems to think that their view should prevail over a majority party vote would be best off pursuing their political ambitions as an independent.

charlie14

irishash wrote: »

I realised later what you were referring to and edited my response to you. I am basing my predictions for the next GE on the percentage results nationally from the Euro elections. I am not basing my figures on the polls - I only mentioned them to compare the polls to the actual results. Sorry for any confusion caused on my part.

No problem.

I was just pointing out that the April and May polls tally with the recent local election results for FF and leave the EU result looking very much an outlier.
For me that would leave those polls and the local result being a better indicator of their vote share in an imminent GE.
Remember the 2014 local election results did virtually mirrored the vote share in the 2016 GE