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Midterm Elections

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,165 ✭✭✭Captain Obvious


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    The governors races in Florida and Georgia could really be historic. Stacy Abrams was actually invited to the governors mansion when she was in high school and was refused entry initially. How amazing would it be for her to become the inhabitant of that house in 2018.


    Yeah but

    Ahead of Tuesday’s midterm election in Georgia, an armed militia has threatened violence if Stacey Abrams wins the governor’s race. In a since edited Facebook post, the far-right group III% Security Force Intel referred to the Democratic candidate as a “flag burning, gun grabbing, socialist bitch.” The group mentioned their love for Donald Trump and wrote, “Guns Up!”


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,931 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Wouldn't trust anything put up on Facebook


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,903 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Yeah but

    Well if she's elected it's going to change the opinions of the handbangers in that state.

    There was an add that used very unflattering language towards her.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Around 10 minutes to the first results.

    Most of Indiana's polls close then a couple of mid-west House seats could give us a pointer to how the night will go.

    This is 538's guide for what results to watch for hour by hour.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,903 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    So more women and minorities are wanted to by the electorate. That's not a great sign for the GOP who's base isn't that broad or diverse.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Water John wrote: »
    The CNN exit poll on voters doesn't look good for the GOP. Very large no think the country is going the wrong direction. 16% first time voters.
    Should be clarified that that's 16% first-time mid-term election voters, so doesn't include 2016.

    The Democrats will clearly win the popular House vote, but I fear because of gerrymandering they might need around an 8% national lead to actually win more seats.


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,903 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    The first results are finally nearly here. Christ it's felt an age for this moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,903 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    GOP sources are saying that trumps immigration stance looks to have hurt their chances.


  • Registered Users Posts: 632 ✭✭✭Rhineshark


    First governorship called for Dems in Guam, flipping from two term Rep. <50% so no run off.


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,903 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Rhineshark wrote: »
    First governorship called for Dems in Guam, flipping from two term Rep. <50% so no run off.

    Guam ? Oh yeah you'd forget about them.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    GOP sources are saying that trumps immigration stance looks to have hurt their chances.
    I'm not so sure about that based on the numbers though.

    CNN saying 48% consider it "too tough".

    32% say it's "about right" and 16% say "it's not tough enough". Add that together and they add up to 48% with a hardline stance.

    Those numbers don't look particularly great for Democrats on the face of it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,931 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    hill16bhoy wrote: »
    I'm not so sure about that based on the numbers though.

    CNN saying 48% consider it "too tough".

    32% say it's "about right" and 16% say "it's not tough enough". Add that together and they add up to 48% with a hardline stance.

    Those numbers don't look particularly great for Democrats on the face of it.

    Huh...

    Nearly 50 per cent say too tough


    That's more than majority of other options.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,096 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    hill16bhoy wrote: »
    I'm not so sure about that based on the numbers though.

    CNN saying 48% consider it "too tough".

    32% say it's "about right" and 16% say "it's not tough enough". Add that together and they add up to 48% with a hardline stance.

    Those numbers don't look particularly great for Democrats on the face of it.

    Most of the right have been moaning for weeks about his language and how he handled the terrorist attacks and the caravan for a while to be fair.

    Its crazy as while he was erratic back in 2016, that message "MAGA" clearly resonated with so many.

    The "Brown people in the caravan are coming to take your money " is even if you agree with it was just really dumb when you consider how far away it was etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,111 ✭✭✭✭flazio


    I suspect the shift in power will be something along the lines of Teresa Mays snap election last year. Close but not close enough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,263 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    my prediction: Republicans gain 3 senate seats. Democrats gain 23 house seats


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,096 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So more women and minorities are wanted to by the electorate. That's not a great sign for the GOP who's base isn't that broad or diverse.

    Its not,it will be interesting to see if Trump has made gains outside his usual demographics. One of the Vox guys was suggesting he may make some inroads in the Hispanic base which might be one of the few things to give him hope for 2020.


  • Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 21,503 Mod ✭✭✭✭Agent Smith




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Preliminary CNN exit poll responses in the Florida and Georgia Governor's races are not overly encouraging for Democrats either, though 50% do say that Stacey Abrams' stance on the issues in Georgia is "about right".

    Responses in Florida do indicate a rather conservative bent to the electorate.

    Gillum in particular would be a bitter loss for the Democrats to take as he has been up in the polls and his opponent De Santis has been playing the (pro-)racism card for all it's worth.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    It's bizarre watching CNN's coverage and there's an ad during the break for MSNBC's election coverage. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,510 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Am I missing something but aren't the republicans winning?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,958 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Too early to say yet.

    But if Dems win Trump will have two years to give them hell anyway

    I suppose there will be an opportunity to investigate things though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,510 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Was looking at declared votes and Republicans at 46
    A yes vote for Trump no? Don't follow US politics


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,903 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Am I missing something but aren't the republicans winning?

    Winning ? The election polls in some states haven't even closed. The republicans control both houses of congress as of now and will until January 2019 when the next congress will sit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,165 ✭✭✭Captain Obvious


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Am I missing something but aren't the republicans winning?


    It's difficult to predict. Early voting seems to have been record numbers and voter suppression seems to have been rife. I don't think polling outside centres today will be accurate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Townton


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Am I missing something but aren't the Republicans winning?

    Way to early to say. Indiana, for example, less than 5% of the vote and most of those in are from rural areas. The only thing to take from that race is that the Republican challenger to Donnelly is certainly running up the numbers where he needs to in order to offset urban votes. But that's about all you can say still way too early.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Here's an Indiana voting machine.

    I believe this is what's euphemistically called a "technical glitch".

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1059942912312688642


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,510 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    When I google us election results it gives 66 results declared and Republicans way ahead


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,958 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Better if Republicans win (apart from Dems being able to question), because Trump cannot blame the Dems for anything apart from his own GOP.

    Only two years to go also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,903 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    fritzelly wrote: »
    When I google us election results it gives 66 results declared and Republicans way ahead

    That's not correct.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Townton


    fritzelly wrote: »
    When I google us election results it gives 66 results declared and Republicans way ahead

    Safe seats. Not news really. It will come down to 50 or so races worth looking at. Thing is in KY6 (which was seen as a benchmark for the so-called "blue wave") and Indiana the Republicans are doing well but very early.


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