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Midterm Elections

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,355 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Just to echo what was said in the Trump thread,
    It actually looks like the Democrats might end up with +40 House seats as opposed to +39; there's actually still one more seat being counted, California 21st. After initially being called as a GOP win with a 7 point lead, subsequent counting of regions has given Democrat TJ Cox a 0.4 point lead. Remarkably it has taken weeks to count all the ballots; I get California's a big state, but it's crazy how poor the US' counting system can be.

    It's mainly California, they're always different and take waaaaay longer


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,091 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Mississippi senate result will be known later, this should have been a straight forward win for the Republicans but Smith has said some things which are and this is really giving her the benefit of the doubt,pretty ****ing stupid. (link below)

    I have a small bet on the Dem here so while I think Smith gets it done early results are a little concerning for the GOP. Obviously Smith is still fav, but not impossible we could see a repeat of Alabama. Losing such a safe seat after the massive house swing would be dire for the GOP.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/27/google-joins-list-companies-seeking-refund-campaign-donation-sen-cindy-hyde-smith-after-public-hanging-comment/?utm_term=.5d582f850632


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,091 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Just to echo what was said in the Trump thread,
    It actually looks like the Democrats might end up with +40 House seats as opposed to +39; there's actually still one more seat being counted, California 21st. After initially being called as a GOP win with a 7 point lead, subsequent counting of regions has given Democrat TJ Cox a 0.4 point lead. Remarkably it has taken weeks to count all the ballots; I get California's a big state, but it's crazy how poor the US' counting system can be.

    I can't pretend to have followed many of the house races, but one of the depressing things for the GOP they really are over reliant on white people.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-flip-39-seats-final-tally-losing-gop-rep-mia-n940156

    Mia Love who most will be familiar with addressed the issue above. I don't know much about her, but reading less loony right wingers online she was an impressive politician. She

    Another close race the Republicans lost was Young Kim who rejected all the Trump nationalism and would have been a much needed nice piece of PR for the party.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/young-kim-s-congressional-campaign-run-two-decades-making-n861466


    Paul Ryan was worried in 2012 the party was doomed long term if they did not diversify and well Trump hasn't exactly helped things. Demographics and Trumpism long term is a disaster for the GOP.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,543 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Mississippi senate result will be known later, this should have been a straight forward win for the Republicans but Smith has said some things which are and this is really giving her the benefit of the doubt,pretty ****ing stupid. (link below)

    I have a small bet on the Dem here so while I think Smith gets it done early results are a little concerning for the GOP. Obviously Smith is still fav, but not impossible we could see a repeat of Alabama. Losing such a safe seat after the massive house swing would be dire for the GOP.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/27/google-joins-list-companies-seeking-refund-campaign-donation-sen-cindy-hyde-smith-after-public-hanging-comment/?utm_term=.5d582f850632

    Well, it seems that the racist rhetoric hurt her, but not much. It's one of the deepest red states in the US & she's likely to finish with around an 8 point win.


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,480 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Well, it seems that the racist rhetoric hurt her, but not much. It's one of the deepest red states in the US & she's likely to finish with around an 8 point win.

    Yep - Looking like she'll finish on about 54% of the vote.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,091 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    Yep - Looking like she'll finish on about 54% of the vote.

    It was a very favorable map for the GOP regarding the senate and they could have done better, however 53-47 gives Mitch something to work with considering how tricky Collins and Murkowski can be at times.

    RGB will need to hang on for another few years, because with this cushion they can elect Coney Barrett to replace her which is most conservatives wet dream.


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,899 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    The thing with the senate is if things get a bit rocky with the economy then the next senate elections will be fun for the GOP. The reverse of what happened this years with a majority of democratic held seats up will happen in 2020 so the senate GOP need to decide how far aligned with Trump they want to be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,389 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    To have a chance in the Senate, the Dems will need some inroad on rural voters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,165 ✭✭✭Captain Obvious


    Water John wrote: »
    To have a chance in the Senate, the Dems will need some inroad on rural voters.


    Will Trump's policies make that easier I wonder.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,452 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    And yup, it's +40 for Democrats now, with Cox squeaking to victory in the California 21st via a 50.2% of the vote share.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,543 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    ...things may not all be done and dusted. Looks like the North Carolina 9th is being investigated for some dubious voting patterns.

    The Rep won it by 905 votes, but one particular district has some extreme irregularities in relation to absentee ballots

    http://amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222363510.html?__twitter_impression=true
    Bladen County had the highest percentage of absentee ballot requests in the state. There, 7.5 percent of registered voters requested absentee ballots. In most counties it was less than 3 percent...

    In seven of the eight counties in the 9th District, for example, McCready (Dem) won a lopsided majority of the mailed-in absentee ballots. But not in Bladen County. There, Republican Mark Harris won 61 percent even though registered Republicans accounted for only 19 percent of the county’s accepted absentee ballots...

    From Nate Silver:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1068338084394090498

    seems to be a crazily gerrymandered state if this is true:

    https://twitter.com/rosshen69908962/status/1068345091792625664


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    ...things may not all be done and dusted. Looks like the North Carolina 9th is being investigated for some dubious voting patterns.

    The Rep won it by 905 votes, but one particular district has some extreme irregularities in relation to absentee ballots

    http://amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222363510.html?__twitter_impression=true



    From Nate Silver:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1068338084394090498

    seems to be a crazily gerrymandered state if this is true:

    https://twitter.com/rosshen69908962/status/1068345091792625664
    Thats true. But nationally I think the gerrymandering by both parties cancels each other out. A panel of the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals a few weeks ago also threw out Maryland's gerrymandered maps. The Dems got around 52% of the seats on 53% of the vote in the House of Representatives nationally.


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