Midterm Elections

Captain Obvious

Americans go to the polls today to vote on a number of issues but primarily the US Senate and Congress. The Democrats are expected to take control of Congress and the Republicans are expected to retain their slim minority in the Senate but there could be a few surprises. Record numbers of early voters and massive voter suppression mean that polls may not be too reliable and Democrats only need to flip two seats to take control.


Here's a quick rundown from CNN


https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/27/politics/us-midterm-election-explainer-intl-trnd/index.html

When will the results be clear?

Quin_Dub

Deleted User wrote: »

When will the results be clear?

I saw an article the other day and they were saying that there would be a fairly good view of things by around 8/9am Irish time tomorrow.

They start counting as soon as the polls close so we should start getting east coast results late tonight and into the early hours tomorrow

blackwave

What are people's predictions for this?

I am going for the safe option that the Dems will grab the House but that the Reps will retain the Senate. I also think Beto O'Rourke will push Ted Cruz a little closer than predicted but will fall short.

Also, I reckon there will be a drop in the markets for a couple of days which Trump will blame on those pesky Dems :rolleyes:

In my largely uninformed opinion, I'd say both sides are underestimating the energy on the other side.

Trump's numbers in 2016 were consistent with any nominee if I remember correctly, and imo, the midterms for the Republicans will probably increase a bit because of the notion of a blue wave. Even for Republicans who are sick of Trump, I don't think many will switch just because of him.

It's whatever vote the Democrats can bring out that counts. Whether it's a vocal minority or a nationwide all-spectrum turnout will basically decide it.


Many here maintain that a vote for a state Republican is an endorsement for Trump, but I don't think Republicans, who are more active at a state level anyway, will see it that way. If they are sick of Trump and see him out in 2020, losing a tonne of ground now makes little sense.

Brian?

Fivethirteight are usually the best predictors of the overall result.

They're predicting the Dems take the house and the GOP hold the Senate, possibly improving their majority by one.

The Dems are at a major disadvantage as they are defending more Senate seats, some in states that went for Trump.

The Gubnatoreal elections are where the real exciting races are for me. There's almost a 50/50 chance that Georgia could have a black woman as Governor tomorrow.

Brian?

Rechecked there.

4/5 chance the GOP hold the Senate and gain 2 seats.

7/8 chance the Dems take the house.

The 2 appear contradictory, but the US political system is a strange beast.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Just a reminder. Fivethirteight predicted a Clinton win in 2016 with the caveat the result was statistically a toss up, within the margin of error in many swing states. So they weren't entirely wrong. They were closer on predicting the electoral map than anyone else.

spacecoyote

Deleted User wrote: »

When will the results be clear?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close/

This from 538 give a pretty decent run-down in terms of timelines of what to expect at what times.

Times are Eastern Time, so obviously adjust accordingly

breatheme

Brian? wrote: »

Rechecked there.

4/5 chance the GOP hold the Senate and gain 2 seats.

7/8 chance the Dems take the house.

The 2 appear contradictory, but the US political system is a strange beast.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Just a reminder. Fivethirteight predicted a Clinton win in 2016 with the caveat the result was statistically a toss up, within the margin of error in many swing states. So they weren't entirely wrong. They were closer on predicting the electoral map than anyone else.

I follow fivethirtyeight since I started paying attention to Politics. The problem is people don't understand how statistics work. They thought that as long as fivethirtyeight kept giving Hillary a bigger percentage, that would mean she would win.

If I recall correctly, back then fivethirtyeight had given Hillary close to a 60% percent chance and Trump a 30% something percent chance. I remember telling several friends that he had a better chance and was heavily dismissed. But when he won, he had (roughly) 1/3 chances of winning. And I thought that was too high.

prawnsambo

breatheme wrote: »

I follow fivethirtyeight since I started paying attention to Politics. The problem is people don't understand how statistics work. They thought that as long as fivethirtyeight kept giving Hillary a bigger percentage, that would mean she would win.

If I recall correctly, back then fivethirtyeight had given Hillary close to a 60% percent chance and Trump a 30% something percent chance. I remember telling several friends that he had a better chance and was heavily dismissed. But when he won, he had (roughly) 1/3 chances of winning. And I thought that was too high.

Fivethirtyeight have a very good methodology, but afaik, they only base turnout on previous data. Which obviously is the only real dataset they can confidently work from. But the reports from these midterms are saying that turnout is dramatically higher than normal at this point in time. It's clearly not something that can be quantified until after the elction is over, but if it holds true to form, could make the predictions a bit more inaccurate.

Captain Obvious

blackwave wrote: »

What are people's predictions for this?

I am going for the safe option that the Dems will grab the House but that the Reps will retain the Senate. I also think Beto O'Rourke will push Ted Cruz a little closer than predicted but will fall short.

Also, I reckon there will be a drop in the markets for a couple of days which Trump will blame on those pesky Dems :rolleyes:

There's simply not enough Republican seats up for the taking in the Senate. I could maybe see Cruz going down. But that would leave all decisions in Pence's hands. And Heitkamp is far from a sure thing. Dems could find themselves worse off in the Senate than before.


If they don't take the House then they need to seriously reform themselves.

prawnsambo

Captain Obvious wrote: »

There's simply not enough Republican seats up for the taking in the Senate. I could maybe see Cruz going down. But that would leave all decisions in Pence's hands. And Heitkamp is far from a sure thing. Dems could find themselves worse off in the Senate than before.

If they don't take the House then they need to seriously reform themselves.

Not sure Texas is that much in the balance. It really depends on turnout and whether increased turnout benefits O'Rourke more than Cruz.


The ones that are closer are Arizona, Nevada, Indiana and Missouri. If those fall to the Democrats, it could well be a 50/50 split in the Senate.

RobertKK

I have a friend who says he normally votes for a Republican and Democrat depending on the candidates in elections, though he says this time he will go all Republican due to the Democrats supporting allegations that had no basis when it came to Brett Kavanaugh.
Two of the three women so far have been shown to have lied and no evidence to back up Christine Blasey Ford either, who has made a fortune from her allegations.

Captain Obvious

RobertKK wrote: »

I have a friend who says he normally votes for a Republican and Democrat depending on the candidates in elections, though he says this time he will go all Republican due to the Democrats supporting allegations that had no basis when it came to Brett Kavanaugh.
Two of the three women so far have been shown to have lied and no evidence to back up Christine Blasey Ford either, who has made a fortune from her allegations.

What a stupid reason to screw your country.

RobertKK

Captain Obvious wrote: »

What a stupid reason to screw your country.

But the problem is the Democrats are directionless.
I know a lot of Americans who are happy to have Trump because he is seen to be keeping his promises.

DrumSteve

RobertKK wrote: »

I have a friend who says he normally votes for a Republican and Democrat depending on the candidates in elections, though he says this time he will go all Republican due to the Democrats supporting allegations that had no basis when it came to Brett Kavanaugh.
Two of the three women so far have been shown to have lied and no evidence to back up Christine Blasey Ford either, who has made a fortune from her allegations.

Nice little dig at the end there.

I'm sure the money distracts from all the death threats she got anyway.

8-10

Captain Obvious wrote: »

If they don't take the House then they need to seriously reform themselves.

They need to do that anyway. They struggle because they don't have easily digestible positions on key issues that are represented clearly and consistently across their candidates.

This is why the Republicans have been able to resonate so much easier with voters in recent elections. What's their stance on Healthcare, Taxation, Immigration, Gun Control, Abortion, Policing etc? It's pretty clear cut. Regardless whether you agree or not, there's a clear consistency across the country with Republican candidates that you know where they stand just by being in the party.

The Democrats are getting better on immigration but you still have candidates with different views on taxation, on gun control, on taxation, even on abortion. They're getting better across the board but it's not as easy for them as a party.

What you have is a firmly right-wing party versus a socially centre-left, economically centre/sometimes centre-right party. It's easy for the Republicans to argue as they have a right-wing base, it's a 2 party system, so any democratic policy stance even if centre-right can be dismissed as 'left-wing' and socialist because it's a more 'left' position than their own.

The Democrats really need to strategise better for 2020 and 2022 because they are not good at having a coherent party message that can easily resonate outside their base. It's all good that you have liberal people willing to come out in numbers for the likes of Beto, Bernie, Ocasio-Cortez etc, but energising your base is just one part of it. You need to win votes from those on the fence. Republicans are clear with what they can offer, Democrats need to do a lot lot more.

Having said that, I do believe the Democrats will get strong results tonight and flip the House. They'll scare a few Senate seats but come up short of taking control and I'd bet that we'll see a first black governor of Florida or Georgia or even both.

But to me the thing that is rallying Democrats this time, the thing that is energising them, isn't their stance on key issues - it's the collective outrage and hatred of the White House and top Republican policy makers over the past 2 years. It's taken Republican incompetence and hardlining to motivate the Democrats. That might work this time, might work in 2020, but it's not a strategy.

Captain Obvious

RobertKK wrote: »

But the problem is the Democrats are directionless.
I know a lot of Americans who are happy to have Trump because he is seen to be keeping his promises.

They aren't directionless. They have poor leadership alright. But Republicans have been fielding white supremicists and pedophiles. They are destroying regulations to protect workers and the environment. They are making healthcare less accessible. They are locking up children for the crime of being foreign. And whatever about Ford's allegation, Kavanaugh was completely unsuitable for the SC. Your friend isn't voting Republican because of Kavanaugh, he's doing it because he believes in the GOP.

RobertKK

DrumSteve wrote: »

Nice little dig at the end there.

I'm sure the money distracts from all the death threats she got anyway.

You can call it a dig, but it is the truth, and if the truth is the issue, then it is not my problem.
Brett Kavanaugh and his family also received many death threats, the Democrats helped create this scenario.
Christine is the woman who says she is scared of flying but went on holidays and got into a small propeller plane to do sight seeing.
Overall she has don well from making allegations and with idiots saying a woman should always be believed, when so far each of these women have been shown to be liars.
These lies don't help Democrats, or to believe women who then are shown to be liars...men are automatically guilty if an allegation is made is not the best way to woo male voters, and a lot of women have an issue with that as well as it could be their son, brother, friend or partner falsely accused.

Democrats will make gains in the house, maybe not as many as expected. They are expected to take it.
Republicans to hold the Senate.

Polls show Trump's support among African American voters has greatly increased since his election, which may or may not translate to the elections.

RobertKK

Captain Obvious wrote: »

They aren't directionless. They have poor leadership alright. But Republicans have been fielding white supremicists and pedophiles. They are destroying regulations to protect workers and the environment. They are making healthcare less accessible. They are locking up children for the crime of being foreign. And whatever about Ford's allegation, Kavanaugh was completely unsuitable for the SC. Your friend isn't voting Republican because of Kavanaugh, he's doing it because he believes in the GOP.

He is a professor in a University, and he was really worked up over the false allegations. There is a fear among men about them receiving false allegations and this #WeBelieverHer doesn't help, where the man is automatically viewed as guilty because idiots say a woman should always be believed. The consequence being if a man says he is innocent it means he has to be telling lies, even if telling the truth.
Sensible people don't want that society. Sensible people want the innocent until proven guilty system, not kangaroo courts on social media.

listermint

RobertKK wrote: »

He is a professor in a University, and he was really worked up over the false allegations. There is a fear among men about them receiving false allegations and this #WeBelieverHer doesn't help, where the man is automatically viewed as guilty because idiots say a woman should always be believed. The consequence being if a man says he is innocent it means he has to be telling lies, even if telling the truth.
Sensible people don't want that society. Sensible people want the innocent until proven guilty system, not kangaroo courts on social media.

Have you been to University?

Being a professor doesnt make you sensible.

Believe me, There is a heap of LooLahs with the Title.

Captain Obvious

RobertKK wrote: »

He is a professor in a University, and he was really worked up over the false allegations. There is a fear among men about them receiving false allegations and this #WeBelieverHer doesn't help, where the man is automatically viewed as guilty because idiots say a woman should always be believed. The consequence being if a man says he is innocent it means he has to be telling lies, even if telling the truth.
Sensible people don't want that society. Sensible people want the innocent until proven guilty system, not kangaroo courts on social media.

So they vote for the ones shouting "Lock her up" and "Lock him up"? Not exactly the high ground they're on. What you have there is simply an excuse being used by people who are voting the way they want and using Kavanaugh as cover.

Hurrache

RobertKK wrote: »

I know a lot of Americans who are happy to have Trump because he is seen to be keeping his promises.

I don't believe that.

RobertKK

Hurrache wrote: »

I don't believe that.

No one asked you to, I know myself as I talk to Americans everyday. Some can't stand Trump, but a lot are happy with him, it isn't what some want to hear but that is my experience.
People on both sides feel the country is very divided and neither party is helping the situation.

prawnsambo

Hurrache wrote: »

I don't believe that.

That is true unfortunately. Even if he doesn't keep them to the letter or at all, he throws enough crap around and raises enough smoke that it's hard for people to really see whether or not he's kept such promises. People believe that he's built the wall, that he's repealed the ACA etc.

Edit: just to add that in the case of the ACA, a lot of people don't know that 'Obamacare' and the ACA are the same thing.

RobertKK

Captain Obvious wrote: »

So they vote for the ones shouting "Lock her up" and "Lock him up"? Not exactly the high ground they're on. What you have there is simply an excuse being used by people who are voting the way they want and using Kavanaugh as cover.

Are you generalising?

Not all Republicans are the 'lock her up' kind, just like all Democrats aren't like Hillary Clinton who jokes all black people look alike.

Hurrache

RobertKK wrote: »

No one asked you

No one asked you either, but here we are, that's the nature of discussion forums.

keane2097

Can we not make this thread be about the second hand accounts of friends people have in America?

There are actual important elections going on today, it would be good to be able to follow news on them rather than anecdotes about a couple of randomers some fella is buddies with.

lawred2

RobertKK wrote: »

No one asked you to, I know myself as I talk to Americans everyday. Some can't stand Trump, but a lot are happy with him, it isn't what some want to hear but that is my experience.
People on both sides feel the country is very divided and neither party is helping the situation.

why should that extend to voting for Republican senators or congress people?

RobertKK

listermint wrote: »

Have you been to University?

Being a professor doesnt make you sensible.

Believe me, There is a heap of LooLahs with the Title.

I know this person, he has been a friend since he was a young teenager, now in his 30s, he has his head well screwed on and just generally a good guy.

8-10

RobertKK wrote: »

I have a friend who says he normally votes for a Republican and Democrat depending on the candidates in elections, though he says this time he will go all Republican due to the Democrats supporting allegations that had no basis when it came to Brett Kavanaugh.
Two of the three women so far have been shown to have lied and no evidence to back up Christine Blasey Ford either, who has made a fortune from her allegations.

What State/District out of interest?

Cato the Elder

lawred2 wrote: »

why should that extend to voting for a Republican senators or congress people?

This is the point many are making. For Republicans, this isn't about Trump. It's about state-level politics.


Furthermore, I consider that Carthage must be destroyed.

RobertKK

lawred2 wrote: »

why should that extend to voting for a Republican senators or congress people?

Because obstruction in the House and/or can stop Trump implementing policy. For some that is a reason to vote Democrat, for others it is a reason to vote Republican.

8-10

Anyone here voted by mail from Ireland? We received our sample ballot after requesting a vote-by-mail ballot a few weeks ago and thought it was the real one at the time without opening. Only realised last week when trying to fill it out that it was a sample. Real ballot never arrived. Status "in the mail" but it's clear it was never sent.

Captain Obvious

RobertKK wrote: »

Are you generalising?

Not all Republicans are the 'lock her up' kind, just like all Democrats aren't like Hillary Clinton who jokes all black people look alike.

They are as long as they support Trump

RobertKK

8-10 wrote: »

What State/District out of interest?

He is from Las Vegas, but not sure if he is registered there or where he is now living. I don't feel I have the right to give out a lot of detail about the person as it is not my info to share.

RobertKK

Captain Obvious wrote: »

They are as long as they support Trump

Trump was democratically elected.
By your reasoning, all Republicans should have resigned from the party because of the fleeting visit of Trump to the party in what will be the history of time.

Hurrache

prawnsambo wrote: »

That is true unfortunately. Even if he doesn't keep them to the letter or at all, he throws enough crap around and raises enough smoke that it's hard for people to really see whether or not he's kept such promises. People believe that he's built the wall, that he's repealed the ACA etc.

Oh I believe there's people out there that will vote just because they think he keeps promises, that's not the think I don't believe.

Dog Man Star

Please read some of RobertKK's posts in the Trump thread before replying to him here.

You will save yourself a lot of potentially wasted time.

Here's a typical post:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106842710&postcount=4492

Captain Obvious

RobertKK wrote: »

Trump was democratically elected.
By your reasoning, all Republicans should have resigned from the party because of the fleeting visit of Trump to the party in what will be the history of time.

The Senate and Congress have a duty to keep the president in line. The Republicans used this to block any decisions Obama made and have supported Trump in almost every way. They did not have to resign, they simply had to do their duty. They have not done so bar one or two stray votes and a bit of tutting. So it can be assumed that they are fully in line with Trumps policies.

8-10

RobertKK wrote: »

He is from Las Vegas, but not sure if he is registered there or where he is now living. I don't feel I have the right to give out a lot of detail about the person as it is not my info to share.

From Vegas and a man, sure I know who he is alright! Won't mention the name don't worry.

The Heller - Rosen race is one of the more interesting ones for sure.

Dog Man Star

Don't waste your time

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106842710&postcount=4492

Captain Obvious

North Dakota effectively excluding Native Americans from voting. A good boost for the Republicans there although Heitkamp was in trouble anyway.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/federal-judge-lets-north-dakota-republicans-block-native-americans-from-voting.html?fbclid=IwAR1T8Ejw706MBGxKC63s_X1jqjsI7SyPI8RNcqB9b6TunCwWOyoCa5R8ul8

RobertKK

Dog Man Star wrote: »

Please read some of RobertKK's posts in the Trump thread before replying to him here.

You will save yourself a lot of potentially wasted time.

Here's a typical post:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=106842710&postcount=4492

You added nothing constructive.

I have spoken against some of Trump's policies, I am not some idiot who sees everything as being black and white, which is what idiots do.

Quin_Dub

All,

This thread is specifically to discuss the mid term election - Results , exit polls , predictions etc.

If you want to discuss Trump and/or GOP Policies , the main Trump thread is the place to go..

Let's keep this one just for the specifics of the mid-terms.

Thank you.

Brian?

Captain Obvious wrote: »

North Dakota effectively excluding Native Americans from voting. A good boost for the Republicans there although Heitkamp was in trouble anyway.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/federal-judge-lets-north-dakota-republicans-block-native-americans-from-voting.html?fbclid=IwAR1T8Ejw706MBGxKC63s_X1jqjsI7SyPI8RNcqB9b6TunCwWOyoCa5R8ul8

Typical voter ID shenanigans. The GOP should be ashamed of themselves. It's one thing to run attack ads on a black candidate with jungle sounds in the background (yep, this year in Georgia), but stripping people's right to cast a ballot is an absolute disgrace.

Captain Obvious

Brian? wrote: »

Typical voter ID shenanigans. The GOP should be ashamed of themselves. It's one thing to run attack ads on a black candidate with jungle sounds in the background (yep, this year in Georgia), but stripping people's right to cast a ballot is an absolute disgrace.

It was widely believed the natives were going to shun her anyway due to a broken promise.

WinnyThePoo

Kinda takes the mick out of the whole leader of the 'free' and worlds greatest country on earth.

oscarBravo

8-10 wrote: »

This is why the Republicans have been able to resonate so much easier with voters in recent elections. What's their stance on Healthcare...? It's pretty clear cut.

Is it? What's the GOP's actual policy on healthcare? Not the "destroy Obama's legacy" fetish, the actual policy?

hill16bhoy

Usually, in the senate, a high majority of toss-up or "in-play" seats break the same way.

Going back a full ten election cycles to 1998, the lowest percentage of toss up seats that have broken the same way is 66.6% for the Republicans in 2002.

https://politicalwire.com/2018/11/05/senate-toss-ups-usually-break-one-way/#disqus_thread

By my own calculations and based on the polls, there are 10 senate seats that are realistically in play to greater or lesser degrees tonight.

4 of those are being defended by the Republicans.

These are:
Arizona
Nevada
Texas
Tennessee

The Democrats are defending 6 "in play" seats:
Florida
Indiana
Missouri
North Dakota
Montana
West Virginia

If we take those "in play" seats away from the starting totals, we have Republican 47, Democrat 43.

That means the Democrats need 8 of the 10 "in play" seats to get to 51, whereas the Republicans just need 3 of those 10 to get to 50 and effective control.

North Dakota has to be presumed to be one that will get away from the Democrats, and I'm working on that basis.

Or to put it another way: The Democrats need to hold five of their six "in plays", and flip three of the four Republican-held "in plays".

Texas and Tennessee are the two seats that Republicans are banking on as their firewall.

However, it's entirely possible that Democrats could sweep the other seven races. Certainly my feeling is that there has been a slight movement back towards the Democrats nationally over the last week. Florida and Indiana are trending Democrat, while Missouri has swung back to being a genuine toss up after leaning slightly Republican for much of the campaign. However if the Democrats take Missouri, I think they'll take Nevada and Arizona too.

If they do sweep those seven seats, the Republicans are down to their firewall of Texas and Tennessee. These two are the hardest "in play" seats for Democrats to win.

But if they can take even one of the two, they would have a great chance to get to 51.

It's a tough ask for sure, but it's not out of the question.

However the two words that keep coming into my mind are "voter suppression", and sadly, I think there's a very good chance we could be hearing some more horrible stories about it tomorrow.

vetinari

Yep, the Republicans haven't been madly pursuing voter suppression for nothing.
Here's hoping it doesn't work out for them.
It's shameful that people can defend such blatant attempts at stopping people from voting.